Nate Silver 538

dignin said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Geez this topic was floating to the bottom where it belonged. 538 missed everywhere and many moderate Dems are gone because pollsters and forecasters completely missed what was happening in purple suburban districts. They do this again in 2022 with the Rs being the party of opposition, the midterms could be a blood bath.


Ill just keep posting the below facts, y’all believe what you must.

538 President estimate was off by-

8 - WI

7- OH

6- FL IA MI

5- PA NV TX

4- NC

9 of 11 states outside a reasonable margin of error. 

Missed the senate completely and overestimated the Dems house majority by double.


Many House Dems are furious, not sure exactly what the rationale is on this forum for thinking 538 had a clue what’s going on. Something is brewing in this country, and the pollsters/ forecasters completely missed it.

 My safe Dem Congressperson is actually losing right now still waiting for some mail in ballots. I have not had a republican congressman in decades, if ever.

....
Other races, 

” She specifically pointed to the defund the police movement and said it hurt her and other moderates who were in tight races. 

Spanberger raised her voice, telling fellow Democrats they needed to learn a lesson from this cycle or "we will be f---ing torn apart in 2022." 

Several of the Democrats who lost their races also offered assessments of the election, including Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, one of two moderates in South Florida who lost to Republican challengers. 

She started to cry as she described the many messages and calls she's received from colleagues. "The loss on Tuesday was heartbreaking. I'm not going to lie," she said, her voice cracking. 

Democrats like this need to shut the fuck up and stop taking this to the media. Take it up internally.  Stop fucking your own party you sore loser

dignin said:

mrussel1 said:

dignin said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Geez this topic was floating to the bottom where it belonged. 538 missed everywhere and many moderate Dems are gone because pollsters and forecasters completely missed what was happening in purple suburban districts. They do this again in 2022 with the Rs being the party of opposition, the midterms could be a blood bath.


Ill just keep posting the below facts, y’all believe what you must.

538 President estimate was off by-

8 - WI

7- OH

6- FL IA MI

5- PA NV TX

4- NC

9 of 11 states outside a reasonable margin of error. 

Missed the senate completely and overestimated the Dems house majority by double.


Many House Dems are furious, not sure exactly what the rationale is on this forum for thinking 538 had a clue what’s going on. Something is brewing in this country, and the pollsters/ forecasters completely missed it.

 My safe Dem Congressperson is actually losing right now still waiting for some mail in ballots. I have not had a republican congressman in decades, if ever.

....
Other races, 

” She specifically pointed to the defund the police movement and said it hurt her and other moderates who were in tight races. 

Spanberger raised her voice, telling fellow Democrats they needed to learn a lesson from this cycle or "we will be f---ing torn apart in 2022." 

Several of the Democrats who lost their races also offered assessments of the election, including Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, one of two moderates in South Florida who lost to Republican challengers. 

She started to cry as she described the many messages and calls she's received from colleagues. "The loss on Tuesday was heartbreaking. I'm not going to lie," she said, her voice cracking. 

Democrats like this need to shut the fuck up and stop taking this to the media. Take it up internally.  Stop fucking your own party you sore loser

The leak of the discussion didn't necessarily come from the two people here. 

Is this your version of "fuck your feelings"?

Can you explain further?

mrussel1 said:

josevolution said:

Jamie Harrison who lost to POS Graham conceded with class no crying no blaming..

Fuck her feelings

mrussel1 said:

josevolution said:

mrussel1 said:

josevolution said:

Jamie Harrison who lost to POS Graham conceded with class no crying no blaming..

Fuck her feelings

Not saying that , but I agree with Digs she can let it all out in the privacy of her home after defeat you have to come to terms that your campaign was not strong or good enough to win it..

Spanberger almost lost here,  a district that Biden carried easily.  The reason is that the RNC ran ad after ad showing "defund the police" and riot footage. I told my wife last week that I was really worried about how much money outside groups were pouring into our district.  It was clear they believed it was more competitive than I did. Abby's point that she made on the call was that rhetoric (not the beliefs) of the left and reps cost people seats,  and almost cost her seat.  I believe she's right and it needs to be said on a caucus call.  It's not her fault that someone leaked it. 

Regarding Powell crying,  she was on the call not conceding on television like Harrison.  Different situation.  Warning signs were up that Trump was on Spanish language radio all over South Florida with socialism accusations.  And you know how that plays in the Cuban community.  She's upset she lost in an area that should have been a win.  It might well have cost Biden Florida as well. 

mrussel1 said:

josevolution said:

mrussel1 said:

josevolution said:

mrussel1 said:

josevolution said:

Jamie Harrison who lost to POS Graham conceded with class no crying no blaming..

Fuck her feelings

Not saying that , but I agree with Digs she can let it all out in the privacy of her home after defeat you have to come to terms that your campaign was not strong or good enough to win it..

Spanberger almost lost here,  a district that Biden carried easily.  The reason is that the RNC ran ad after ad showing "defund the police" and riot footage. I told my wife last week that I was really worried about how much money outside groups were pouring into our district.  It was clear they believed it was more competitive than I did. Abby's point that she made on the call was that rhetoric (not the beliefs) of the left and reps cost people seats,  and almost cost her seat.  I believe she's right and it needs to be said on a caucus call.  It's not her fault that someone leaked it. 

Regarding Powell crying,  she was on the call not conceding on television like Harrison.  Different situation.  Warning signs were up that Trump was on Spanish language radio all over South Florida with socialism accusations.  And you know how that plays in the Cuban community.  She's upset she lost in an area that should have been a win.  It might well have cost Biden Florida as well. 

Yes the RNC knows how to stoke fear into the voting public, but at some point the Democratic candidate needs to fight fire with fire, I don’t know enough about how she combated the misinformation being done by the RNC..

Democrats run their share of negative ads.

josevolution said:

mrussel1 said:

josevolution said:

mrussel1 said:

josevolution said:

mrussel1 said:

josevolution said:

Jamie Harrison who lost to POS Graham conceded with class no crying no blaming..

Fuck her feelings

Not saying that , but I agree with Digs she can let it all out in the privacy of her home after defeat you have to come to terms that your campaign was not strong or good enough to win it..

Spanberger almost lost here,  a district that Biden carried easily.  The reason is that the RNC ran ad after ad showing "defund the police" and riot footage. I told my wife last week that I was really worried about how much money outside groups were pouring into our district.  It was clear they believed it was more competitive than I did. Abby's point that she made on the call was that rhetoric (not the beliefs) of the left and reps cost people seats,  and almost cost her seat.  I believe she's right and it needs to be said on a caucus call.  It's not her fault that someone leaked it. 

Regarding Powell crying,  she was on the call not conceding on television like Harrison.  Different situation.  Warning signs were up that Trump was on Spanish language radio all over South Florida with socialism accusations.  And you know how that plays in the Cuban community.  She's upset she lost in an area that should have been a win.  It might well have cost Biden Florida as well. 

Yes the RNC knows how to stoke fear into the voting public, but at some point the Democratic candidate needs to fight fire with fire, I don’t know enough about how she combated the misinformation being done by the RNC..

Democrats run their share of negative ads.

Would you say it’s on the same level as the Republicans?