Nate Silver 538
Comments
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Lerxst1992 said:Geez this topic was floating to the bottom where it belonged. 538 missed everywhere and many moderate Dems are gone because pollsters and forecasters completely missed what was happening in purple suburban districts. They do this again in 2022 with the Rs being the party of opposition, the midterms could be a blood bath.
Ill just keep posting the below facts, y’all believe what you must.538 President estimate was off by-
8 - WI
7- OH
6- FL IA MI
5- PA NV TX
4- NC
9 of 11 states outside a reasonable margin of error.Missed the senate completely and overestimated the Dems house majority by double.
Many House Dems are furious, not sure exactly what the rationale is on this forum for thinking 538 had a clue what’s going on. Something is brewing in this country, and the pollsters/ forecasters completely missed it.My safe Dem Congressperson is actually losing right now still waiting for some mail in ballots. I have not had a republican congressman in decades, if ever.....
Other races,
” She specifically pointed to the defund the police movement and said it hurt her and other moderates who were in tight races.Spanberger raised her voice, telling fellow Democrats they needed to learn a lesson from this cycle or "we will be f---ing torn apart in 2022."
Several of the Democrats who lost their races also offered assessments of the election, including Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, one of two moderates in South Florida who lost to Republican challengers.
She started to cry as she described the many messages and calls she's received from colleagues. "The loss on Tuesday was heartbreaking. I'm not going to lie," she said, her voice cracking.
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dignin said:Lerxst1992 said:Geez this topic was floating to the bottom where it belonged. 538 missed everywhere and many moderate Dems are gone because pollsters and forecasters completely missed what was happening in purple suburban districts. They do this again in 2022 with the Rs being the party of opposition, the midterms could be a blood bath.
Ill just keep posting the below facts, y’all believe what you must.538 President estimate was off by-
8 - WI
7- OH
6- FL IA MI
5- PA NV TX
4- NC
9 of 11 states outside a reasonable margin of error.Missed the senate completely and overestimated the Dems house majority by double.
Many House Dems are furious, not sure exactly what the rationale is on this forum for thinking 538 had a clue what’s going on. Something is brewing in this country, and the pollsters/ forecasters completely missed it.My safe Dem Congressperson is actually losing right now still waiting for some mail in ballots. I have not had a republican congressman in decades, if ever.....
Other races,
” She specifically pointed to the defund the police movement and said it hurt her and other moderates who were in tight races.Spanberger raised her voice, telling fellow Democrats they needed to learn a lesson from this cycle or "we will be f---ing torn apart in 2022."
Several of the Democrats who lost their races also offered assessments of the election, including Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, one of two moderates in South Florida who lost to Republican challengers.
She started to cry as she described the many messages and calls she's received from colleagues. "The loss on Tuesday was heartbreaking. I'm not going to lie," she said, her voice cracking.
Is this your version of "fuck your feelings"?0 -
mrussel1 said:dignin said:Lerxst1992 said:Geez this topic was floating to the bottom where it belonged. 538 missed everywhere and many moderate Dems are gone because pollsters and forecasters completely missed what was happening in purple suburban districts. They do this again in 2022 with the Rs being the party of opposition, the midterms could be a blood bath.
Ill just keep posting the below facts, y’all believe what you must.538 President estimate was off by-
8 - WI
7- OH
6- FL IA MI
5- PA NV TX
4- NC
9 of 11 states outside a reasonable margin of error.Missed the senate completely and overestimated the Dems house majority by double.
Many House Dems are furious, not sure exactly what the rationale is on this forum for thinking 538 had a clue what’s going on. Something is brewing in this country, and the pollsters/ forecasters completely missed it.My safe Dem Congressperson is actually losing right now still waiting for some mail in ballots. I have not had a republican congressman in decades, if ever.....
Other races,
” She specifically pointed to the defund the police movement and said it hurt her and other moderates who were in tight races.Spanberger raised her voice, telling fellow Democrats they needed to learn a lesson from this cycle or "we will be f---ing torn apart in 2022."
Several of the Democrats who lost their races also offered assessments of the election, including Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, one of two moderates in South Florida who lost to Republican challengers.
She started to cry as she described the many messages and calls she's received from colleagues. "The loss on Tuesday was heartbreaking. I'm not going to lie," she said, her voice cracking.
Is this your version of "fuck your feelings"?0 -
dignin said:mrussel1 said:dignin said:Lerxst1992 said:Geez this topic was floating to the bottom where it belonged. 538 missed everywhere and many moderate Dems are gone because pollsters and forecasters completely missed what was happening in purple suburban districts. They do this again in 2022 with the Rs being the party of opposition, the midterms could be a blood bath.
Ill just keep posting the below facts, y’all believe what you must.538 President estimate was off by-
8 - WI
7- OH
6- FL IA MI
5- PA NV TX
4- NC
9 of 11 states outside a reasonable margin of error.Missed the senate completely and overestimated the Dems house majority by double.
Many House Dems are furious, not sure exactly what the rationale is on this forum for thinking 538 had a clue what’s going on. Something is brewing in this country, and the pollsters/ forecasters completely missed it.My safe Dem Congressperson is actually losing right now still waiting for some mail in ballots. I have not had a republican congressman in decades, if ever.....
Other races,
” She specifically pointed to the defund the police movement and said it hurt her and other moderates who were in tight races.Spanberger raised her voice, telling fellow Democrats they needed to learn a lesson from this cycle or "we will be f---ing torn apart in 2022."
Several of the Democrats who lost their races also offered assessments of the election, including Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, one of two moderates in South Florida who lost to Republican challengers.
She started to cry as she described the many messages and calls she's received from colleagues. "The loss on Tuesday was heartbreaking. I'm not going to lie," she said, her voice cracking.
Is this your version of "fuck your feelings"?
Second, that attitude is the equivalent of the Trump "fuck your feelings" mantra. The woman just lost her election. Have a heart.0 -
mrussel1 said:dignin said:mrussel1 said:dignin said:Lerxst1992 said:Geez this topic was floating to the bottom where it belonged. 538 missed everywhere and many moderate Dems are gone because pollsters and forecasters completely missed what was happening in purple suburban districts. They do this again in 2022 with the Rs being the party of opposition, the midterms could be a blood bath.
Ill just keep posting the below facts, y’all believe what you must.538 President estimate was off by-
8 - WI
7- OH
6- FL IA MI
5- PA NV TX
4- NC
9 of 11 states outside a reasonable margin of error.Missed the senate completely and overestimated the Dems house majority by double.
Many House Dems are furious, not sure exactly what the rationale is on this forum for thinking 538 had a clue what’s going on. Something is brewing in this country, and the pollsters/ forecasters completely missed it.My safe Dem Congressperson is actually losing right now still waiting for some mail in ballots. I have not had a republican congressman in decades, if ever.....
Other races,
” She specifically pointed to the defund the police movement and said it hurt her and other moderates who were in tight races.Spanberger raised her voice, telling fellow Democrats they needed to learn a lesson from this cycle or "we will be f---ing torn apart in 2022."
Several of the Democrats who lost their races also offered assessments of the election, including Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, one of two moderates in South Florida who lost to Republican challengers.
She started to cry as she described the many messages and calls she's received from colleagues. "The loss on Tuesday was heartbreaking. I'm not going to lie," she said, her voice cracking.
Is this your version of "fuck your feelings"?
Second, that attitude is the equivalent of the Trump "fuck your feelings" mantra. The woman just lost her election. Have a heart.
Have a heart? That's bleeding heart liberal nonsense.
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The love he receives is the love that is saved0
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dignin said:mrussel1 said:dignin said:mrussel1 said:dignin said:Lerxst1992 said:Geez this topic was floating to the bottom where it belonged. 538 missed everywhere and many moderate Dems are gone because pollsters and forecasters completely missed what was happening in purple suburban districts. They do this again in 2022 with the Rs being the party of opposition, the midterms could be a blood bath.
Ill just keep posting the below facts, y’all believe what you must.538 President estimate was off by-
8 - WI
7- OH
6- FL IA MI
5- PA NV TX
4- NC
9 of 11 states outside a reasonable margin of error.Missed the senate completely and overestimated the Dems house majority by double.
Many House Dems are furious, not sure exactly what the rationale is on this forum for thinking 538 had a clue what’s going on. Something is brewing in this country, and the pollsters/ forecasters completely missed it.My safe Dem Congressperson is actually losing right now still waiting for some mail in ballots. I have not had a republican congressman in decades, if ever.....
Other races,
” She specifically pointed to the defund the police movement and said it hurt her and other moderates who were in tight races.Spanberger raised her voice, telling fellow Democrats they needed to learn a lesson from this cycle or "we will be f---ing torn apart in 2022."
Several of the Democrats who lost their races also offered assessments of the election, including Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, one of two moderates in South Florida who lost to Republican challengers.
She started to cry as she described the many messages and calls she's received from colleagues. "The loss on Tuesday was heartbreaking. I'm not going to lie," she said, her voice cracking.
Is this your version of "fuck your feelings"?
Second, that attitude is the equivalent of the Trump "fuck your feelings" mantra. The woman just lost her election. Have a heart.
Have a heart? That's bleeding heart liberal nonsense.0 -
dignin said:mrussel1 said:dignin said:mrussel1 said:dignin said:Lerxst1992 said:Geez this topic was floating to the bottom where it belonged. 538 missed everywhere and many moderate Dems are gone because pollsters and forecasters completely missed what was happening in purple suburban districts. They do this again in 2022 with the Rs being the party of opposition, the midterms could be a blood bath.
Ill just keep posting the below facts, y’all believe what you must.538 President estimate was off by-
8 - WI
7- OH
6- FL IA MI
5- PA NV TX
4- NC
9 of 11 states outside a reasonable margin of error.Missed the senate completely and overestimated the Dems house majority by double.
Many House Dems are furious, not sure exactly what the rationale is on this forum for thinking 538 had a clue what’s going on. Something is brewing in this country, and the pollsters/ forecasters completely missed it.My safe Dem Congressperson is actually losing right now still waiting for some mail in ballots. I have not had a republican congressman in decades, if ever.....
Other races,
” She specifically pointed to the defund the police movement and said it hurt her and other moderates who were in tight races.Spanberger raised her voice, telling fellow Democrats they needed to learn a lesson from this cycle or "we will be f---ing torn apart in 2022."
Several of the Democrats who lost their races also offered assessments of the election, including Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, one of two moderates in South Florida who lost to Republican challengers.
She started to cry as she described the many messages and calls she's received from colleagues. "The loss on Tuesday was heartbreaking. I'm not going to lie," she said, her voice cracking.
Is this your version of "fuck your feelings"?
Second, that attitude is the equivalent of the Trump "fuck your feelings" mantra. The woman just lost her election. Have a heart.
Have a heart? That's bleeding heart liberal nonsense.Scio me nihil scire
There are no kings inside the gates of eden0 -
🍺🍿🍺"A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory0
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Jamie Harrison who lost to POS Graham conceded with class no crying no blaming..jesus greets me looks just like me ....0
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josevolution said:Jamie Harrison who lost to POS Graham conceded with class no crying no blaming..0
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mrussel1 said:josevolution said:Jamie Harrison who lost to POS Graham conceded with class no crying no blaming..jesus greets me looks just like me ....0
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josevolution said:mrussel1 said:josevolution said:Jamie Harrison who lost to POS Graham conceded with class no crying no blaming..
Regarding Powell crying, she was on the call not conceding on television like Harrison. Different situation. Warning signs were up that Trump was on Spanish language radio all over South Florida with socialism accusations. And you know how that plays in the Cuban community. She's upset she lost in an area that should have been a win. It might well have cost Biden Florida as well.0 -
mrussel1 said:josevolution said:mrussel1 said:josevolution said:Jamie Harrison who lost to POS Graham conceded with class no crying no blaming..
Regarding Powell crying, she was on the call not conceding on television like Harrison. Different situation. Warning signs were up that Trump was on Spanish language radio all over South Florida with socialism accusations. And you know how that plays in the Cuban community. She's upset she lost in an area that should have been a win. It might well have cost Biden Florida as well.jesus greets me looks just like me ....0 -
josevolution said:mrussel1 said:josevolution said:mrussel1 said:josevolution said:Jamie Harrison who lost to POS Graham conceded with class no crying no blaming..
Regarding Powell crying, she was on the call not conceding on television like Harrison. Different situation. Warning signs were up that Trump was on Spanish language radio all over South Florida with socialism accusations. And you know how that plays in the Cuban community. She's upset she lost in an area that should have been a win. It might well have cost Biden Florida as well.0 -
mrussel1 said:josevolution said:mrussel1 said:josevolution said:mrussel1 said:josevolution said:Jamie Harrison who lost to POS Graham conceded with class no crying no blaming..
Regarding Powell crying, she was on the call not conceding on television like Harrison. Different situation. Warning signs were up that Trump was on Spanish language radio all over South Florida with socialism accusations. And you know how that plays in the Cuban community. She's upset she lost in an area that should have been a win. It might well have cost Biden Florida as well.jesus greets me looks just like me ....0 -
It's no where near the same level. The Republican Party is the party of fear (especially of the Other), religious zealots, exclusion, and greed.0
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josevolution said:mrussel1 said:josevolution said:mrussel1 said:josevolution said:mrussel1 said:josevolution said:Jamie Harrison who lost to POS Graham conceded with class no crying no blaming..
Regarding Powell crying, she was on the call not conceding on television like Harrison. Different situation. Warning signs were up that Trump was on Spanish language radio all over South Florida with socialism accusations. And you know how that plays in the Cuban community. She's upset she lost in an area that should have been a win. It might well have cost Biden Florida as well.0 -
This I can agree with. But there's a clear difference between a negative ad (Trump is gross, because that's not not true) and stoking fear of racism and those who are poor which is what the Rs always do.0
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