Nate Silver 538

Lerxst1992

Jearlpam0925 said:

I think Pittsburgh dump of the segregated ballots from yesterday will be this afternoon. So I think that should definitely do it. Unless Philly comes with an 8k margin before then.

PA dashboard just dropped uncounted mail ballots by 13k first time in 15 hours it moved, but Biden margin has not budged in a while.

JimmyV

Jearlpam0925 said:

And this is spot on 

https://twitter.com/4st8/status/1324956095123697669?s=19

I am no Democrat and I'm happy to kick dirt and blame on them when it's deserved, but I'm unsure what they are supposed to do when 70mil Americans look at Trump's first four years and try to sign up for four more. 

eeriepadave

eeriepadave said:

Is this the same dude that does sports predictions in baseball, basketball, etc.... ?

i believe it is

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nfl-predictions/

Jearlpam0925

JimmyV said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

And this is spot on 

https://twitter.com/4st8/status/1324956095123697669?s=19

I am no Democrat and I'm happy to kick dirt and blame on them when it's deserved, but I'm unsure what they are supposed to do when 70mil Americans look at Trump's first four years and try to sign up for four more. 

Like I said, they need to build better than throwing money at a problem in the last 12 months before an election.

For the Dems to ever have a shot they need to do more seed planting over years.

static111

Listening to NPR today they said that Nate Silver has been demoted to Nate Bronze!!!

josevolution

dignin said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

It works. And more than anything, the most effective form of campaigning is door knocking. No question.

I've harped on this in many threads - everyone basically needs to run for their lowest political position in their area. Mine for example is committeperson. Be a political block captain. And run for your area's election boards. Be a judge of elections or an inspector. Our group's next campaign is to canvass for minority inspectors. These are mostly Rs in Philly but we're going to look to put Indies/NP/WFP in these roles and just push Rs out of the system as much as possible. 

Right on. Politics is a contact sport, not meant for the feint of heart. Get out there, hit the pavement and knock on doors. Pull out that support that is already there.

Thanks for your work in Philly, the world owes you a debt of gratitude for helping to kick that asshole to the curb.

I 2nd that thanks for walkin the pavement!!

HughFreakingDillon

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

This I can agree with. But there's a clear difference between a negative ad (Trump is gross, because that's not not true) and stoking fear of racism and those who are poor which is what the Rs always do.

So the question is, is that what our fellow posters are arguing D's need to start doing?  Stoking fears?

all dems have to do is tell the truth with a slightly dramatic spin

oftenreading

static111 said:

Listening to NPR today they said that Nate Silver has been demoted to Nate Bronze!!!

Gern Blansten

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325858783923417088

The Juggler

Gern Blansten said:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325858783923417088

Yeah how many times did we hear that "even if the polls were wrong by more than they were in '16, he'd still win? That's why folks were more confident this time around. 

Jearlpam0925

Preach.

FYI for anyone looking to make free money. For some ungodly reason PA, GA, AZ, and WI are clearly underpriced on predictit.org. So go get some free money. Also some other underpriced markets on there if you squint. Go get some money!

Lerxst1992

Damn this thread needs to drop to the bottom.


538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.

Gern Blansten

Lerxst1992 said:

Damn this thread needs to drop to the bottom.


538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.

Yeah and you were pushing Giuliani's bullshit on the other thread...

dignin

Lerxst1992 said:

Damn this thread needs to drop to the bottom.


538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.

Weren't you just on here yesterday spreading false info for the Trump campaign?

Gern Blansten

I don't disagree that it sucks that dems can win the popular vote by 6 million votes and still almost lose the fucking election.  Makes no sense

The Juggler

Lerxst1992 said:

Damn this thread needs to drop to the bottom.


538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.

Lol
Yeah, sure. Actually if Trump didn't successfully brand most democrats as socialists (other than Biden), the democrats wouldn't have to worry about two long shot Georgia runoffs to have any shot at winning the senate. Thank god there was a more moderate dem at the top of the ticket...

benjs

Lerxst1992 said:

Damn this thread needs to drop to the bottom.


538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.

Polls lead to aggregates which lead to simulations which inform forecasts. Forecasts predict error by watching prior error and finding out how error itself trends, as well as watching individual cohort behaviours. Simulations arrive everywhere on the spectrum from Trump winning by landslides, to Biden winning by landslides, and every outcome in between. By projecting 91% odds of winning, 538 are explicitly stating that 91% of their 40,000 simulations, once error is accounted for, yielded a Biden victory. This is one of those outcomes. You're trying to argue with math, and I'm not sure I understand why. 

Gern Blansten

benjs said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Damn this thread needs to drop to the bottom.


538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.

Polls lead to aggregates which lead to simulations which inform forecasts. Forecasts predict error by watching prior error and finding out how error itself trends, as well as watching individual cohort behaviours. Simulations arrive everywhere on the spectrum from Trump winning by landslides, to Biden winning by landslides, and every outcome in between. By projecting 91% odds of winning, 538 are explicitly stating that 91% of their 40,000 simulations, once error is accounted for, yielded a Biden victory. This is one of those outcomes. You're trying to argue with math, and I'm not sure I understand why. 

Exactly....and with there likely being 306 EC and 5mil+ more popular votes it came out the way it was predicted.

HughFreakingDillon

benjs said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Damn this thread needs to drop to the bottom.


538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.

Polls lead to aggregates which lead to simulations which inform forecasts. Forecasts predict error by watching prior error and finding out how error itself trends, as well as watching individual cohort behaviours. Simulations arrive everywhere on the spectrum from Trump winning by landslides, to Biden winning by landslides, and every outcome in between. By projecting 91% odds of winning, 538 are explicitly stating that 91% of their 40,000 simulations, once error is accounted for, yielded a Biden victory. This is one of those outcomes. You're trying to argue with math, and I'm not sure I understand why. 

desperate to be right

Jearlpam0925

And it can't be stressed enough - though, I know a lot of people have tried - that you cannot forecast the Electoral College. Forecasting 50 individual races is incredibly tough, though like a normal person when you look at as a whole it's far easier. When the dust settles here neither 538 or Economist will be far off.