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Nate Silver 538

Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,888
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

I like this graphic that 538 uses to reflect where the battleground is.  Based on polling it tells you right where the tipping points are.


Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
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Comments

  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,888
    Biden has been favored 72/28 or 73/27 for a week or so....today it dropped slightly


    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,089
    My kind of thread!

    I think Biden's in good shape. Needs to get on the trail again though. I believe he said he will be travelling to battlegrounds after Labor Day 
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,888
    My kind of thread!

    I think Biden's in good shape. Needs to get on the trail again though. I believe he said he will be travelling to battlegrounds after Labor Day 
    His campaign is being run well.  He'll be hitting WI soon I believe.
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,888
    I don't quite understand why Biden is trailing in OH.  NC is very close right now.....I would have expected the same in OH but the spread is like 53/47 for cheeto
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon I'm from Winnipeg, you idiot! (Chris Jericho)Posts: 23,070
    michael moore predicts (or hopes?) for another trump win. 
    1993 - Gimli, MB (Sun/Mudfest)
    2003 - Fargo, ND
    2005 - Winnipeg, MB
    2011 - Minneapolis, MN (EV)
    2011 - Winnipeg, MB
    2014 - St. Paul, MN
    2020 - Ottawa, ON
  • HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon I'm from Winnipeg, you idiot! (Chris Jericho)Posts: 23,070
    after all, his movies aren't as profitable without fear living in the white house
    1993 - Gimli, MB (Sun/Mudfest)
    2003 - Fargo, ND
    2005 - Winnipeg, MB
    2011 - Minneapolis, MN (EV)
    2011 - Winnipeg, MB
    2014 - St. Paul, MN
    2020 - Ottawa, ON
  • brianluxbrianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain.Posts: 32,336
    after all, his movies aren't as profitable without fear living in the white house

    He was right last time.  I hope he is wrong this time. 
    “In all human affairs there are efforts, and there are results, and the strength of the effort is the measure of the result.”
    -James Allen










  • PJNBPJNB New BrunswickPosts: 7,577
    brianlux said:
    after all, his movies aren't as profitable without fear living in the white house

    He was right last time.  I hope he is wrong this time. 
    I think this is more about sounding the alarm and telling people to wake the fuck up and vote rather than he truly thinks Trump will win. 
    PJ
    2013 Worcester 1 & 2
    2016 Quebec, Toronto 2, Fenway 1&2, Wrigley 2
    2018 Prague, Krakow, Berlin, Seattle 2, Wrigley 2, Fenway 1&2 

    EV
    2017 Firenze, Taormina 1 & 2
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,888
    PJNB said:
    brianlux said:
    after all, his movies aren't as profitable without fear living in the white house

    He was right last time.  I hope he is wrong this time. 
    I think this is more about sounding the alarm and telling people to wake the fuck up and vote rather than he truly thinks Trump will win. 
    Agreed....he doesn't want a repeat of 2016
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • Go BeaversGo Beavers Posts: 7,279
    I don't quite understand why Biden is trailing in OH.  NC is very close right now.....I would have expected the same in OH but the spread is like 53/47 for cheeto

    Ohio is generally considered a swing state, but it always seems to lean right to me. It will only go Biden if turnout is unusually high.

    This made me think of my cousins who live in rural Ohio. They put up a Biden sign, and the neighbor put up a sign clarifying "that sign is not ours"
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,888
    I don't quite understand why Biden is trailing in OH.  NC is very close right now.....I would have expected the same in OH but the spread is like 53/47 for cheeto

    Ohio is generally considered a swing state, but it always seems to lean right to me. It will only go Biden if turnout is unusually high.

    This made me think of my cousins who live in rural Ohio. They put up a Biden sign, and the neighbor put up a sign clarifying "that sign is not ours"
    I grew up in Darke County.  It is fucking Trumpistan right now.  Mostly lower middle class blue collar workers that completely vote against their own self interests...but merikkka
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,089
    edited September 2
    Great reference point I saw earlier. Biden is up 7.5% right now. Some decent polls out today. 


    chinese-happy.jpg
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,888
    538 puts NC in Biden's column this morning...it's still at 50/50 but FL is holding at 60/40


    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,888

    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,888
    Odd that Nate's model actually has improved Biden's chances even as we hear some polls that seem to have tightened...


    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • cincybearcatcincybearcat Posts: 14,433
    Odd that Nate's model actually has improved Biden's chances even as we hear some polls that seem to have tightened...


    From what I saw it was a couple of states moving more to BIden's column (Wisconsin I believe) and the close race in NC.  
    hippiemom = goodness
  • tbergstbergs Posts: 7,210
    Odd that Nate's model actually has improved Biden's chances even as we hear some polls that seem to have tightened...


    From what I saw it was a couple of states moving more to BIden's column (Wisconsin I believe) and the close race in NC.  
    I was in western WI this past weekend and for the first time I actually saw Biden signs in yards, and more than Trump! Most were homemade, but it was the first time I have seen any sign promoting Biden.
    It's a hopeless situation...
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,888
    tbergs said:
    Odd that Nate's model actually has improved Biden's chances even as we hear some polls that seem to have tightened...


    From what I saw it was a couple of states moving more to BIden's column (Wisconsin I believe) and the close race in NC.  
    I was in western WI this past weekend and for the first time I actually saw Biden signs in yards, and more than Trump! Most were homemade, but it was the first time I have seen any sign promoting Biden.
    I've been donating to Biden and have not been pressed too much on signage.  Maybe because I'm in Indiana.
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,758
    ....Gern Blansten said:
    I don't quite understand why Biden is trailing in OH.  NC is very close right now.....I would have expected the same in OH but the spread is like 53/47 for cheeto

    Ohio is generally considered a swing state, but it always seems to lean right to me. It will only go Biden if turnout is unusually high.

    This made me think of my cousins who live in rural Ohio. They put up a Biden sign, and the neighbor put up a sign clarifying "that sign is not ours"
    I grew up in Darke County.  It is fucking Trumpistan right now.  Mostly lower middle class blue collar workers that completely vote against their own self interests...but merikkka


    Before Trump, Ohio was considered a must have. For decades every president had Ohio in their win column.

    But trump changed politics. He made it more about demographics than even Obama.

    It’s likely Ohio is now more republican than Texas. Ohio is about 80% white, Texas about 73%. Sad, but true. (The politics of race).
  • HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon I'm from Winnipeg, you idiot! (Chris Jericho)Posts: 23,070
    ....Gern Blansten said:
    I don't quite understand why Biden is trailing in OH.  NC is very close right now.....I would have expected the same in OH but the spread is like 53/47 for cheeto

    Ohio is generally considered a swing state, but it always seems to lean right to me. It will only go Biden if turnout is unusually high.

    This made me think of my cousins who live in rural Ohio. They put up a Biden sign, and the neighbor put up a sign clarifying "that sign is not ours"
    I grew up in Darke County.  It is fucking Trumpistan right now.  Mostly lower middle class blue collar workers that completely vote against their own self interests...but merikkka


    Before Trump, Ohio was considered a must have. For decades every president had Ohio in their win column.

    But trump changed politics. He made it more about demographics than even Obama.

    It’s likely Ohio is now more republican than Texas. Ohio is about 80% white, Texas about 73%. Sad, but true. (The politics of race).
    i was in the car last night listening to talk radio (my wife was driving) and one of the people speaking about the upcoming election basically said how interesting it is that texas is likely going to be blue this time around, because (as we all know) rural areas tend to vote red and metro goes blue, so if the major cities in any particular state are growing faster than their rural areas, they will be leaning blue, and the opposite is true, in cities where they aren't growing as fast, tend to lean red. 
    1993 - Gimli, MB (Sun/Mudfest)
    2003 - Fargo, ND
    2005 - Winnipeg, MB
    2011 - Minneapolis, MN (EV)
    2011 - Winnipeg, MB
    2014 - St. Paul, MN
    2020 - Ottawa, ON
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,888
    ....Gern Blansten said:
    I don't quite understand why Biden is trailing in OH.  NC is very close right now.....I would have expected the same in OH but the spread is like 53/47 for cheeto

    Ohio is generally considered a swing state, but it always seems to lean right to me. It will only go Biden if turnout is unusually high.

    This made me think of my cousins who live in rural Ohio. They put up a Biden sign, and the neighbor put up a sign clarifying "that sign is not ours"
    I grew up in Darke County.  It is fucking Trumpistan right now.  Mostly lower middle class blue collar workers that completely vote against their own self interests...but merikkka


    Before Trump, Ohio was considered a must have. For decades every president had Ohio in their win column.

    But trump changed politics. He made it more about demographics than even Obama.

    It’s likely Ohio is now more republican than Texas. Ohio is about 80% white, Texas about 73%. Sad, but true. (The politics of race).
    i was in the car last night listening to talk radio (my wife was driving) and one of the people speaking about the upcoming election basically said how interesting it is that texas is likely going to be blue this time around, because (as we all know) rural areas tend to vote red and metro goes blue, so if the major cities in any particular state are growing faster than their rural areas, they will be leaning blue, and the opposite is true, in cities where they aren't growing as fast, tend to lean red. 
    It will be interesting.

    It is just odd to me that Obama won OH in 2008 AND 2012...then tRump wins in 2016 and leads again (as of now) in 2020.

    There are tons of people in OH...it's the 7th largest state by population
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • stuckinlinestuckinline Posts: 2,874
    I'm in North East Ohio, the trump campaign signs out number the Biden signs.
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,888
    edited September 9
    538 shows tRump with a 55% chance of winning OH right now.  50% Trump 49% Biden...so still close

    The new Rasmussen poll for OH (rated C+ by 538) show Biden +4....that is interesting because Rasmussen is a right leaning pollster.  

    The Morning Consult poll (rated B/C) shows tRump +5
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • tbergstbergs Posts: 7,210
    538 shows tRump with a 55% chance of winning OH right now.  50% Trump 49% Biden...so still close

    The new Rasmussen poll for OH (rated C+ by 538) show Biden +4....that is interesting because Rasmussen is a right leaning pollster.  

    The Morning Consult poll (rated B/C) shows tRump +5
    Seems like Rasmussen might be trying to give the left false hope, sound the alarm for the diehards or a little bit of both.
    It's a hopeless situation...
  • JW269453JW269453 Lubbock, TXPosts: 592
    ....Gern Blansten said:
    I don't quite understand why Biden is trailing in OH.  NC is very close right now.....I would have expected the same in OH but the spread is like 53/47 for cheeto

    Ohio is generally considered a swing state, but it always seems to lean right to me. It will only go Biden if turnout is unusually high.

    This made me think of my cousins who live in rural Ohio. They put up a Biden sign, and the neighbor put up a sign clarifying "that sign is not ours"
    I grew up in Darke County.  It is fucking Trumpistan right now.  Mostly lower middle class blue collar workers that completely vote against their own self interests...but merikkka


    Before Trump, Ohio was considered a must have. For decades every president had Ohio in their win column.

    But trump changed politics. He made it more about demographics than even Obama.

    It’s likely Ohio is now more republican than Texas. Ohio is about 80% white, Texas about 73%. Sad, but true. (The politics of race).
    You understand that percentage includes people of Hispanic descent right? Non-Hispanic Whites make up only 41% of the population, Texas is easily one of the most diverse states in the country...easily.

  • eddieceddiec Posts: 3,289
    JW269453 said:
    ....Gern Blansten said:
    I don't quite understand why Biden is trailing in OH.  NC is very close right now.....I would have expected the same in OH but the spread is like 53/47 for cheeto

    Ohio is generally considered a swing state, but it always seems to lean right to me. It will only go Biden if turnout is unusually high.

    This made me think of my cousins who live in rural Ohio. They put up a Biden sign, and the neighbor put up a sign clarifying "that sign is not ours"
    I grew up in Darke County.  It is fucking Trumpistan right now.  Mostly lower middle class blue collar workers that completely vote against their own self interests...but merikkka


    Before Trump, Ohio was considered a must have. For decades every president had Ohio in their win column.

    But trump changed politics. He made it more about demographics than even Obama.

    It’s likely Ohio is now more republican than Texas. Ohio is about 80% white, Texas about 73%. Sad, but true. (The politics of race).
    You understand that percentage includes people of Hispanic descent right? Non-Hispanic Whites make up only 41% of the population, Texas is easily one of the most diverse states in the country...easily.


    That's why it will eventually go blue.
  • Lol at all the idiots that are gonna fall for the polls AGAIN!

    Did you not learn anything in 2016?
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,888
    DM656970 said:
    Lol at all the idiots that are gonna fall for the polls AGAIN!

    Did you not learn anything in 2016?
    Really?

    Here's what I learned.  The polls were basically right, they just didn't have time to correct for the Comey letter that came out a few days before the election.

    Remember that your dear tRump only won by 77,000 votes spread over three states.  He got lucky.
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • The polls were so wrong before the 2016 election. Like waaay off. 

    Most all polls had Hillary in a landslide

    I learned that maybe the polls and the MSM have an agenda and do a great job of lying for the democratic party
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,888
    DM656970 said:
    The polls were so wrong before the 2016 election. Like waaay off. 

    Most all polls had Hillary in a landslide

    I learned that maybe the polls and the MSM have an agenda and do a great job of lying for the democratic party
    You are incorrect.  You are basing your opinion off of false narratives.

    Nate Silver's national poll four years ago (close to election time) predicted a 2% advantage for Clinton. That is exactly what happened.  Luckily for tRump he eeked out the three states mentioned above courtesy of Comey.

    Educate yourself please.
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
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