Nate Silver 538

Gern Blansten

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

I like this graphic that 538 uses to reflect where the battleground is.  Based on polling it tells you right where the tipping points are.

Gern Blansten

Biden has been favored 72/28 or 73/27 for a week or so....today it dropped slightly

The Juggler

My kind of thread!

I think Biden's in good shape. Needs to get on the trail again though. I believe he said he will be travelling to battlegrounds after Labor Day 

Gern Blansten

The Juggler said:

My kind of thread!

I think Biden's in good shape. Needs to get on the trail again though. I believe he said he will be travelling to battlegrounds after Labor Day 

His campaign is being run well.  He'll be hitting WI soon I believe.

Gern Blansten

I don't quite understand why Biden is trailing in OH.  NC is very close right now.....I would have expected the same in OH but the spread is like 53/47 for cheeto

HughFreakingDillon

michael moore predicts (or hopes?) for another trump win. 

HughFreakingDillon

after all, his movies aren't as profitable without fear living in the white house

brianlux

HughFreakingDillon said:

after all, his movies aren't as profitable without fear living in the white house

He was right last time.  I hope he is wrong this time. 

PJNB

brianlux said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

after all, his movies aren't as profitable without fear living in the white house

He was right last time.  I hope he is wrong this time. 

I think this is more about sounding the alarm and telling people to wake the fuck up and vote rather than he truly thinks Trump will win. 

Gern Blansten

PJNB said:

brianlux said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

after all, his movies aren't as profitable without fear living in the white house

He was right last time.  I hope he is wrong this time. 

I think this is more about sounding the alarm and telling people to wake the fuck up and vote rather than he truly thinks Trump will win. 

Agreed....he doesn't want a repeat of 2016

Go Beavers

Gern Blansten said:

I don't quite understand why Biden is trailing in OH.  NC is very close right now.....I would have expected the same in OH but the spread is like 53/47 for cheeto

Ohio is generally considered a swing state, but it always seems to lean right to me. It will only go Biden if turnout is unusually high.

This made me think of my cousins who live in rural Ohio. They put up a Biden sign, and the neighbor put up a sign clarifying "that sign is not ours"

Gern Blansten

Go Beavers said:

Gern Blansten said:

I don't quite understand why Biden is trailing in OH.  NC is very close right now.....I would have expected the same in OH but the spread is like 53/47 for cheeto

Ohio is generally considered a swing state, but it always seems to lean right to me. It will only go Biden if turnout is unusually high.

This made me think of my cousins who live in rural Ohio. They put up a Biden sign, and the neighbor put up a sign clarifying "that sign is not ours"

I grew up in Darke County.  It is fucking Trumpistan right now.  Mostly lower middle class blue collar workers that completely vote against their own self interests...but merikkka

The Juggler

Great reference point I saw earlier. Biden is up 7.5% right now. Some decent polls out today. 

Gern Blansten

538 puts NC in Biden's column this morning...it's still at 50/50 but FL is holding at 60/40

Gern Blansten

Gern Blansten

Odd that Nate's model actually has improved Biden's chances even as we hear some polls that seem to have tightened...

cincybearcat

Gern Blansten said:

Odd that Nate's model actually has improved Biden's chances even as we hear some polls that seem to have tightened...

From what I saw it was a couple of states moving more to BIden's column (Wisconsin I believe) and the close race in NC.  

tbergs

cincybearcat said:

Gern Blansten said:

Odd that Nate's model actually has improved Biden's chances even as we hear some polls that seem to have tightened...

From what I saw it was a couple of states moving more to BIden's column (Wisconsin I believe) and the close race in NC.  

I was in western WI this past weekend and for the first time I actually saw Biden signs in yards, and more than Trump! Most were homemade, but it was the first time I have seen any sign promoting Biden.

Gern Blansten

tbergs said:

cincybearcat said:

Gern Blansten said:

Odd that Nate's model actually has improved Biden's chances even as we hear some polls that seem to have tightened...

From what I saw it was a couple of states moving more to BIden's column (Wisconsin I believe) and the close race in NC.  

I was in western WI this past weekend and for the first time I actually saw Biden signs in yards, and more than Trump! Most were homemade, but it was the first time I have seen any sign promoting Biden.

I've been donating to Biden and have not been pressed too much on signage.  Maybe because I'm in Indiana.

Lerxst1992

....Gern Blansten said:

Go Beavers said:

Gern Blansten said:

I don't quite understand why Biden is trailing in OH.  NC is very close right now.....I would have expected the same in OH but the spread is like 53/47 for cheeto

Ohio is generally considered a swing state, but it always seems to lean right to me. It will only go Biden if turnout is unusually high.

This made me think of my cousins who live in rural Ohio. They put up a Biden sign, and the neighbor put up a sign clarifying "that sign is not ours"

I grew up in Darke County.  It is fucking Trumpistan right now.  Mostly lower middle class blue collar workers that completely vote against their own self interests...but merikkka

Before Trump, Ohio was considered a must have. For decades every president had Ohio in their win column.

But trump changed politics. He made it more about demographics than even Obama.

It’s likely Ohio is now more republican than Texas. Ohio is about 80% white, Texas about 73%. Sad, but true. (The politics of race).

HughFreakingDillon

Lerxst1992 said:

....Gern Blansten said:

Go Beavers said:

Gern Blansten said:

I don't quite understand why Biden is trailing in OH.  NC is very close right now.....I would have expected the same in OH but the spread is like 53/47 for cheeto

Ohio is generally considered a swing state, but it always seems to lean right to me. It will only go Biden if turnout is unusually high.

This made me think of my cousins who live in rural Ohio. They put up a Biden sign, and the neighbor put up a sign clarifying "that sign is not ours"

I grew up in Darke County.  It is fucking Trumpistan right now.  Mostly lower middle class blue collar workers that completely vote against their own self interests...but merikkka

Before Trump, Ohio was considered a must have. For decades every president had Ohio in their win column.

But trump changed politics. He made it more about demographics than even Obama.

It’s likely Ohio is now more republican than Texas. Ohio is about 80% white, Texas about 73%. Sad, but true. (The politics of race).

i was in the car last night listening to talk radio (my wife was driving) and one of the people speaking about the upcoming election basically said how interesting it is that texas is likely going to be blue this time around, because (as we all know) rural areas tend to vote red and metro goes blue, so if the major cities in any particular state are growing faster than their rural areas, they will be leaning blue, and the opposite is true, in cities where they aren't growing as fast, tend to lean red.