Nate Silver 538

Gern Blansten

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

I like this graphic that 538 uses to reflect where the battleground is.  Based on polling it tells you right where the tipping points are.

Gern Blansten

Biden has been favored 72/28 or 73/27 for a week or so....today it dropped slightly

The Juggler

My kind of thread!

I think Biden's in good shape. Needs to get on the trail again though. I believe he said he will be travelling to battlegrounds after Labor Day 

Gern Blansten

The Juggler said:

My kind of thread!

I think Biden's in good shape. Needs to get on the trail again though. I believe he said he will be travelling to battlegrounds after Labor Day 

His campaign is being run well.  He'll be hitting WI soon I believe.

Gern Blansten

I don't quite understand why Biden is trailing in OH.  NC is very close right now.....I would have expected the same in OH but the spread is like 53/47 for cheeto

HughFreakingDillon

michael moore predicts (or hopes?) for another trump win. 

HughFreakingDillon

after all, his movies aren't as profitable without fear living in the white house

brianlux

HughFreakingDillon said:

after all, his movies aren't as profitable without fear living in the white house

He was right last time.  I hope he is wrong this time. 

PJNB

brianlux said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

after all, his movies aren't as profitable without fear living in the white house

He was right last time.  I hope he is wrong this time. 

I think this is more about sounding the alarm and telling people to wake the fuck up and vote rather than he truly thinks Trump will win. 

Gern Blansten

PJNB said:

brianlux said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

after all, his movies aren't as profitable without fear living in the white house

He was right last time.  I hope he is wrong this time. 

I think this is more about sounding the alarm and telling people to wake the fuck up and vote rather than he truly thinks Trump will win. 

Agreed....he doesn't want a repeat of 2016

Go Beavers

Gern Blansten said:

I don't quite understand why Biden is trailing in OH.  NC is very close right now.....I would have expected the same in OH but the spread is like 53/47 for cheeto

Ohio is generally considered a swing state, but it always seems to lean right to me. It will only go Biden if turnout is unusually high.

This made me think of my cousins who live in rural Ohio. They put up a Biden sign, and the neighbor put up a sign clarifying "that sign is not ours"

Gern Blansten

Go Beavers said:

Gern Blansten said:

I don't quite understand why Biden is trailing in OH.  NC is very close right now.....I would have expected the same in OH but the spread is like 53/47 for cheeto

Ohio is generally considered a swing state, but it always seems to lean right to me. It will only go Biden if turnout is unusually high.

This made me think of my cousins who live in rural Ohio. They put up a Biden sign, and the neighbor put up a sign clarifying "that sign is not ours"

I grew up in Darke County.  It is fucking Trumpistan right now.  Mostly lower middle class blue collar workers that completely vote against their own self interests...but merikkka

The Juggler

Great reference point I saw earlier. Biden is up 7.5% right now. Some decent polls out today. 

Gern Blansten

538 puts NC in Biden's column this morning...it's still at 50/50 but FL is holding at 60/40

Gern Blansten

Gern Blansten

Odd that Nate's model actually has improved Biden's chances even as we hear some polls that seem to have tightened...

cincybearcat

Gern Blansten said:

Odd that Nate's model actually has improved Biden's chances even as we hear some polls that seem to have tightened...

From what I saw it was a couple of states moving more to BIden's column (Wisconsin I believe) and the close race in NC.  

tbergs

cincybearcat said:

Gern Blansten said:

Odd that Nate's model actually has improved Biden's chances even as we hear some polls that seem to have tightened...

From what I saw it was a couple of states moving more to BIden's column (Wisconsin I believe) and the close race in NC.  

I was in western WI this past weekend and for the first time I actually saw Biden signs in yards, and more than Trump! Most were homemade, but it was the first time I have seen any sign promoting Biden.

Gern Blansten

tbergs said:

cincybearcat said:

Gern Blansten said:

Odd that Nate's model actually has improved Biden's chances even as we hear some polls that seem to have tightened...

From what I saw it was a couple of states moving more to BIden's column (Wisconsin I believe) and the close race in NC.  

I was in western WI this past weekend and for the first time I actually saw Biden signs in yards, and more than Trump! Most were homemade, but it was the first time I have seen any sign promoting Biden.

I've been donating to Biden and have not been pressed too much on signage.  Maybe because I'm in Indiana.

Lerxst1992

....Gern Blansten said:

Go Beavers said:

Gern Blansten said:

I don't quite understand why Biden is trailing in OH.  NC is very close right now.....I would have expected the same in OH but the spread is like 53/47 for cheeto

Ohio is generally considered a swing state, but it always seems to lean right to me. It will only go Biden if turnout is unusually high.

This made me think of my cousins who live in rural Ohio. They put up a Biden sign, and the neighbor put up a sign clarifying "that sign is not ours"

I grew up in Darke County.  It is fucking Trumpistan right now.  Mostly lower middle class blue collar workers that completely vote against their own self interests...but merikkka

Before Trump, Ohio was considered a must have. For decades every president had Ohio in their win column.

But trump changed politics. He made it more about demographics than even Obama.

It’s likely Ohio is now more republican than Texas. Ohio is about 80% white, Texas about 73%. Sad, but true. (The politics of race).

HughFreakingDillon

Lerxst1992 said:

....Gern Blansten said:

Go Beavers said:

Gern Blansten said:

I don't quite understand why Biden is trailing in OH.  NC is very close right now.....I would have expected the same in OH but the spread is like 53/47 for cheeto

Ohio is generally considered a swing state, but it always seems to lean right to me. It will only go Biden if turnout is unusually high.

This made me think of my cousins who live in rural Ohio. They put up a Biden sign, and the neighbor put up a sign clarifying "that sign is not ours"

I grew up in Darke County.  It is fucking Trumpistan right now.  Mostly lower middle class blue collar workers that completely vote against their own self interests...but merikkka

Before Trump, Ohio was considered a must have. For decades every president had Ohio in their win column.

But trump changed politics. He made it more about demographics than even Obama.

It’s likely Ohio is now more republican than Texas. Ohio is about 80% white, Texas about 73%. Sad, but true. (The politics of race).

i was in the car last night listening to talk radio (my wife was driving) and one of the people speaking about the upcoming election basically said how interesting it is that texas is likely going to be blue this time around, because (as we all know) rural areas tend to vote red and metro goes blue, so if the major cities in any particular state are growing faster than their rural areas, they will be leaning blue, and the opposite is true, in cities where they aren't growing as fast, tend to lean red. 

Gern Blansten

HughFreakingDillon said:

Lerxst1992 said:

....Gern Blansten said:

Go Beavers said:

Gern Blansten said:

I don't quite understand why Biden is trailing in OH.  NC is very close right now.....I would have expected the same in OH but the spread is like 53/47 for cheeto

Ohio is generally considered a swing state, but it always seems to lean right to me. It will only go Biden if turnout is unusually high.

This made me think of my cousins who live in rural Ohio. They put up a Biden sign, and the neighbor put up a sign clarifying "that sign is not ours"

I grew up in Darke County.  It is fucking Trumpistan right now.  Mostly lower middle class blue collar workers that completely vote against their own self interests...but merikkka

Before Trump, Ohio was considered a must have. For decades every president had Ohio in their win column.

But trump changed politics. He made it more about demographics than even Obama.

It’s likely Ohio is now more republican than Texas. Ohio is about 80% white, Texas about 73%. Sad, but true. (The politics of race).

i was in the car last night listening to talk radio (my wife was driving) and one of the people speaking about the upcoming election basically said how interesting it is that texas is likely going to be blue this time around, because (as we all know) rural areas tend to vote red and metro goes blue, so if the major cities in any particular state are growing faster than their rural areas, they will be leaning blue, and the opposite is true, in cities where they aren't growing as fast, tend to lean red. 

It will be interesting.

It is just odd to me that Obama won OH in 2008 AND 2012...then tRump wins in 2016 and leads again (as of now) in 2020.

There are tons of people in OH...it's the 7th largest state by population

stuckinline

I'm in North East Ohio, the trump campaign signs out number the Biden signs.

Gern Blansten

538 shows tRump with a 55% chance of winning OH right now.  50% Trump 49% Biden...so still close

The new Rasmussen poll for OH (rated C+ by 538) show Biden +4....that is interesting because Rasmussen is a right leaning pollster.  

The Morning Consult poll (rated B/C) shows tRump +5

tbergs

Gern Blansten said:

538 shows tRump with a 55% chance of winning OH right now.  50% Trump 49% Biden...so still close

The new Rasmussen poll for OH (rated C+ by 538) show Biden +4....that is interesting because Rasmussen is a right leaning pollster.  

The Morning Consult poll (rated B/C) shows tRump +5

Seems like Rasmussen might be trying to give the left false hope, sound the alarm for the diehards or a little bit of both.

FiveBelow

Lerxst1992 said:

....Gern Blansten said:

Go Beavers said:

Gern Blansten said:

I don't quite understand why Biden is trailing in OH.  NC is very close right now.....I would have expected the same in OH but the spread is like 53/47 for cheeto

Ohio is generally considered a swing state, but it always seems to lean right to me. It will only go Biden if turnout is unusually high.

This made me think of my cousins who live in rural Ohio. They put up a Biden sign, and the neighbor put up a sign clarifying "that sign is not ours"

I grew up in Darke County.  It is fucking Trumpistan right now.  Mostly lower middle class blue collar workers that completely vote against their own self interests...but merikkka

Before Trump, Ohio was considered a must have. For decades every president had Ohio in their win column.

But trump changed politics. He made it more about demographics than even Obama.

It’s likely Ohio is now more republican than Texas. Ohio is about 80% white, Texas about 73%. Sad, but true. (The politics of race).

You understand that percentage includes people of Hispanic descent right? Non-Hispanic Whites make up only 41% of the population, Texas is easily one of the most diverse states in the country...easily.

eddiec

JW269453 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

....Gern Blansten said:

Go Beavers said:

Gern Blansten said:

I don't quite understand why Biden is trailing in OH.  NC is very close right now.....I would have expected the same in OH but the spread is like 53/47 for cheeto

Ohio is generally considered a swing state, but it always seems to lean right to me. It will only go Biden if turnout is unusually high.

This made me think of my cousins who live in rural Ohio. They put up a Biden sign, and the neighbor put up a sign clarifying "that sign is not ours"

I grew up in Darke County.  It is fucking Trumpistan right now.  Mostly lower middle class blue collar workers that completely vote against their own self interests...but merikkka

Before Trump, Ohio was considered a must have. For decades every president had Ohio in their win column.

But trump changed politics. He made it more about demographics than even Obama.

It’s likely Ohio is now more republican than Texas. Ohio is about 80% white, Texas about 73%. Sad, but true. (The politics of race).

You understand that percentage includes people of Hispanic descent right? Non-Hispanic Whites make up only 41% of the population, Texas is easily one of the most diverse states in the country...easily.

That's why it will eventually go blue.

DM656970

Lol at all the idiots that are gonna fall for the polls AGAIN!

Did you not learn anything in 2016?

Gern Blansten

DM656970 said:

Lol at all the idiots that are gonna fall for the polls AGAIN!

Did you not learn anything in 2016?

Really?

Here's what I learned.  The polls were basically right, they just didn't have time to correct for the Comey letter that came out a few days before the election.

Remember that your dear tRump only won by 77,000 votes spread over three states.  He got lucky.

DM656970

The polls were so wrong before the 2016 election. Like waaay off. 

Most all polls had Hillary in a landslide

I learned that maybe the polls and the MSM have an agenda and do a great job of lying for the democratic party

Gern Blansten

DM656970 said:

The polls were so wrong before the 2016 election. Like waaay off. 

Most all polls had Hillary in a landslide

I learned that maybe the polls and the MSM have an agenda and do a great job of lying for the democratic party

You are incorrect.  You are basing your opinion off of false narratives.

Nate Silver's national poll four years ago (close to election time) predicted a 2% advantage for Clinton. That is exactly what happened.  Luckily for tRump he eeked out the three states mentioned above courtesy of Comey.

Educate yourself please.