Nate Silver 538

mrussel1

Jearlpam0925 said:

This I can agree with. But there's a clear difference between a negative ad (Trump is gross, because that's not not true) and stoking fear of racism and those who are poor which is what the Rs always do.

So the question is, is that what our fellow posters are arguing D's need to start doing?  Stoking fears?

josevolution

Jearlpam0925 said:

And this is spot on 

https://twitter.com/4st8/status/1324956095123697669?s=19

Yeah SC come to mind J Harrison raised how much $ and lost convincingly! 

Jearlpam0925

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

This I can agree with. But there's a clear difference between a negative ad (Trump is gross, because that's not not true) and stoking fear of racism and those who are poor which is what the Rs always do.

So the question is, is that what our fellow posters are arguing D's need to start doing?  Stoking fears?

I would hope not. Definitely play the same game as the R's going forward when it comes to legislating, but that's about all the Dems should follow.

Otherwise, other than salt, fat, and sugar, the remaining excessive basic instincts of greed, and fear of the other the R's can keep.

dignin

As Biden Inches Ahead in Georgia, Stacey Abrams Draws Recognition and Praise

Celebrities, activists and voters credited Ms. Abrams for building a network of organizations that highlighted voter suppression and inspired an estimated 800,000 new voter registrations

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/06/us/politics/stacey-abrams-georgia.html


That's how you deal with a loss. She's an inspiration. 

Jearlpam0925

And if Dems want to expand and more efficiently spend their money it's not to pour donations into campaigns in the final 12 months. That money would be soooo much better used if it's invested at a basic, grassroots level based around neighborhood networks. The only way the Dem party will ever be dominant is if it plants seeds years in advance through these types of groups.

eeriepadave

Is this the same dude that does sports predictions in baseball, basketball, etc.... ?

dignin

Jearlpam0925 said:

And if Dems want to expand and more efficiently spend their money it's not to pour donations into campaigns in the final 12 months. That money would be soooo much better used if it's invested at a basic, grassroots level based around neighborhood networks. The only way the Dem party will ever be dominant is if it plants seeds years in advance through these types of groups.

I worked on a campaign that lost twice in a row. We were trying to flip a heavy conservative district that had been that way for around 50 years. Our candidate never cried when she lost, she just worked harder. It took 8 years of fundraising, door knocking and identifying support and then making sure that support voted. We have defended that seat for 2 elections now. 

mrussel1

dignin said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

And if Dems want to expand and more efficiently spend their money it's not to pour donations into campaigns in the final 12 months. That money would be soooo much better used if it's invested at a basic, grassroots level based around neighborhood networks. The only way the Dem party will ever be dominant is if it plants seeds years in advance through these types of groups.

I worked on a campaign that lost twice in a row. We were trying to flip a heavy conservative district that had been that way for around 50 years. Our candidate never cried when she lost, she just worked harder. It took 8 years of fundraising, door knocking and identifying support and then making sure that support voted. We have defended that seat for 2 elections now. 

I guess she is just a better person than Powell.  

dignin

mrussel1 said:

dignin said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

And if Dems want to expand and more efficiently spend their money it's not to pour donations into campaigns in the final 12 months. That money would be soooo much better used if it's invested at a basic, grassroots level based around neighborhood networks. The only way the Dem party will ever be dominant is if it plants seeds years in advance through these types of groups.

I worked on a campaign that lost twice in a row. We were trying to flip a heavy conservative district that had been that way for around 50 years. Our candidate never cried when she lost, she just worked harder. It took 8 years of fundraising, door knocking and identifying support and then making sure that support voted. We have defended that seat for 2 elections now. 

I guess she is just a better person than Powell.  

Now you're just being petty. You know that's not what I said, you're just basically pouting at this point, I don't understand why. If this candidate was your friend and I insulted her and hurt your feelings I apologize.

Do I think she's a better politician? Based on the evidence I have little doubt. 

mrussel1

dignin said:

mrussel1 said:

dignin said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

And if Dems want to expand and more efficiently spend their money it's not to pour donations into campaigns in the final 12 months. That money would be soooo much better used if it's invested at a basic, grassroots level based around neighborhood networks. The only way the Dem party will ever be dominant is if it plants seeds years in advance through these types of groups.

I worked on a campaign that lost twice in a row. We were trying to flip a heavy conservative district that had been that way for around 50 years. Our candidate never cried when she lost, she just worked harder. It took 8 years of fundraising, door knocking and identifying support and then making sure that support voted. We have defended that seat for 2 elections now. 

I guess she is just a better person than Powell.  

Now you're just being petty. You know that's not what I said, you're just basically pouting at this point, I don't understand why. If this candidate was your friend and I insulted her and hurt your feelings I apologize.

Do I think she's a better politician? Based on the evidence I have little doubt. 

Pouty? About what? Democrats and their voters are supposed to be better people than than our counterparts.  If I see something that doesn't live up to that standard,  I'm going to call it out.  I do it consistently on this board and in real life. 

dignin

mrussel1 said:

dignin said:

mrussel1 said:

dignin said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

And if Dems want to expand and more efficiently spend their money it's not to pour donations into campaigns in the final 12 months. That money would be soooo much better used if it's invested at a basic, grassroots level based around neighborhood networks. The only way the Dem party will ever be dominant is if it plants seeds years in advance through these types of groups.

I worked on a campaign that lost twice in a row. We were trying to flip a heavy conservative district that had been that way for around 50 years. Our candidate never cried when she lost, she just worked harder. It took 8 years of fundraising, door knocking and identifying support and then making sure that support voted. We have defended that seat for 2 elections now. 

I guess she is just a better person than Powell.  

Now you're just being petty. You know that's not what I said, you're just basically pouting at this point, I don't understand why. If this candidate was your friend and I insulted her and hurt your feelings I apologize.

Do I think she's a better politician? Based on the evidence I have little doubt. 

Pouty? About what? Democrats and their voters are supposed to be better people than than our counterparts.  If I see something that doesn't live up to that standard,  I'm going to call it out.  I do it consistently on this board and in real life. 

Fine, you've turned this into something it's not, but that's your perogative. 

I want my candidates to be better politicians, tactitions and just all around tougher. I'm not quite sure what you want other than maybe platitudes. Reminds me of Melania's "be better".

Trying to paint me as Trumpian is ridiculous, but go ahead. Water off a ducks back.

Jearlpam0925

dignin said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

And if Dems want to expand and more efficiently spend their money it's not to pour donations into campaigns in the final 12 months. That money would be soooo much better used if it's invested at a basic, grassroots level based around neighborhood networks. The only way the Dem party will ever be dominant is if it plants seeds years in advance through these types of groups.

I worked on a campaign that lost twice in a row. We were trying to flip a heavy conservative district that had been that way for around 50 years. Our candidate never cried when she lost, she just worked harder. It took 8 years of fundraising, door knocking and identifying support and then making sure that support voted. We have defended that seat for 2 elections now. 

Right there with you. This is the kind of ground game of networking I'm talking about.

static111

mrussel1 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

This I can agree with. But there's a clear difference between a negative ad (Trump is gross, because that's not not true) and stoking fear of racism and those who are poor which is what the Rs always do.

So the question is, is that what our fellow posters are arguing D's need to start doing?  Stoking fears?

Organize

Tim Simmons

plot plan strategize organize mobilize

Halifax2TheMax

Tim Simmons said:

plot plan strategize organize mobilize

Plot? Socialist communist.

Jearlpam0925

It works. And more than anything, the most effective form of campaigning is door knocking. No question.

I've harped on this in many threads - everyone basically needs to run for their lowest political position in their area. Mine for example is committeperson. Be a political block captain. And run for your area's election boards. Be a judge of elections or an inspector. Our group's next campaign is to canvass for minority inspectors. These are mostly Rs in Philly but we're going to look to put Indies/NP/WFP in these roles and just push Rs out of the system as much as possible. 

Jearlpam0925

I think Pittsburgh dump of the segregated ballots from yesterday will be this afternoon. So I think that should definitely do it. Unless Philly comes with an 8k margin before then.

bootleg

mrussel1 said:

josevolution said:

mrussel1 said:

josevolution said:

mrussel1 said:

josevolution said:

mrussel1 said:

josevolution said:

Jamie Harrison who lost to POS Graham conceded with class no crying no blaming..

Fuck her feelings

Not saying that , but I agree with Digs she can let it all out in the privacy of her home after defeat you have to come to terms that your campaign was not strong or good enough to win it..

Spanberger almost lost here,  a district that Biden carried easily.  The reason is that the RNC ran ad after ad showing "defund the police" and riot footage. I told my wife last week that I was really worried about how much money outside groups were pouring into our district.  It was clear they believed it was more competitive than I did. Abby's point that she made on the call was that rhetoric (not the beliefs) of the left and reps cost people seats,  and almost cost her seat.  I believe she's right and it needs to be said on a caucus call.  It's not her fault that someone leaked it. 

Regarding Powell crying,  she was on the call not conceding on television like Harrison.  Different situation.  Warning signs were up that Trump was on Spanish language radio all over South Florida with socialism accusations.  And you know how that plays in the Cuban community.  She's upset she lost in an area that should have been a win.  It might well have cost Biden Florida as well. 

Yes the RNC knows how to stoke fear into the voting public, but at some point the Democratic candidate needs to fight fire with fire, I don’t know enough about how she combated the misinformation being done by the RNC..

Democrats run their share of negative ads.

Would you say it’s on the same level as the Republicans?

Yeah at the individual election level,  for sure.  I saw a roughly number of equal ads. In fact,  if you think about the cash advantage the dems had,  they probably ran far more negative ads simply because they ran far more ads period. 

Just because Dems point out all of the awful shit Rs do does not make them negative ads.  Rs on the other hand just make shit up about candidates to stoke the fear.  There’s a difference.

dignin

Jearlpam0925 said:

It works. And more than anything, the most effective form of campaigning is door knocking. No question.

I've harped on this in many threads - everyone basically needs to run for their lowest political position in their area. Mine for example is committeperson. Be a political block captain. And run for your area's election boards. Be a judge of elections or an inspector. Our group's next campaign is to canvass for minority inspectors. These are mostly Rs in Philly but we're going to look to put Indies/NP/WFP in these roles and just push Rs out of the system as much as possible. 

Right on. Politics is a contact sport, not meant for the feint of heart. Get out there, hit the pavement and knock on doors. Pull out that support that is already there.

Thanks for your work in Philly, the world owes you a debt of gratitude for helping to kick that asshole to the curb.

mrussel1

bootleg said:

mrussel1 said:

josevolution said:

mrussel1 said:

josevolution said:

mrussel1 said:

josevolution said:

mrussel1 said:

josevolution said:

Jamie Harrison who lost to POS Graham conceded with class no crying no blaming..

Fuck her feelings

Not saying that , but I agree with Digs she can let it all out in the privacy of her home after defeat you have to come to terms that your campaign was not strong or good enough to win it..

Spanberger almost lost here,  a district that Biden carried easily.  The reason is that the RNC ran ad after ad showing "defund the police" and riot footage. I told my wife last week that I was really worried about how much money outside groups were pouring into our district.  It was clear they believed it was more competitive than I did. Abby's point that she made on the call was that rhetoric (not the beliefs) of the left and reps cost people seats,  and almost cost her seat.  I believe she's right and it needs to be said on a caucus call.  It's not her fault that someone leaked it. 

Regarding Powell crying,  she was on the call not conceding on television like Harrison.  Different situation.  Warning signs were up that Trump was on Spanish language radio all over South Florida with socialism accusations.  And you know how that plays in the Cuban community.  She's upset she lost in an area that should have been a win.  It might well have cost Biden Florida as well. 

Yes the RNC knows how to stoke fear into the voting public, but at some point the Democratic candidate needs to fight fire with fire, I don’t know enough about how she combated the misinformation being done by the RNC..

Democrats run their share of negative ads.

Would you say it’s on the same level as the Republicans?

Yeah at the individual election level,  for sure.  I saw a roughly number of equal ads. In fact,  if you think about the cash advantage the dems had,  they probably ran far more negative ads simply because they ran far more ads period. 

Just because Dems point out all of the awful shit Rs do does not make them negative ads.  Rs on the other hand just make shit up about candidates to stoke the fear.  There’s a difference.

Yeah I don't know about that.  Both sides spin on the official ads. It's different than the memes and other internet garbage.