Nate Silver 538

Lerxst1992

JHughFreakingDillon said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

MayDay10 said:

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323991891453632512

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323993051073794053

What a joke. The four bumps to the right are MUCH larger and 538 predicted 338 electoral votes for Biden with an 89% chance of winning.

RCP and trafalgar did a better job than 538.

What's wit your blood vendetta against 538? First,  Trafalgar predicted a Trump win.  You're arguing the spread is more important than the super bowl win.  Second,  RCP does zero analysis.  They are just aggregating and averaging. 

You see the bump in that picture on the right? You saw the prediction of 338 EVs? You saw numerous states listed as Biden 95% which were nail biters this election and last? 538 had zero clue what was going to happen this election.  Wittes is a joke for sending that tweet.

538 is an interesting outfit that does publish good articles, but their ability to understand the American electorate since trump took the escalator ride from hell is garbage and feeds into trumps fake news narrative.

If you call a state 95% and then win the state by one vote,  you were right. 

Their job was to characterize the election. Their job was to distinguish for us the good polls vs the bad ones. They were wrong. Again. On a catastrophic level. They could have kept a few thousand voters home in key states.

Let’s just be civil and agree to disagree. I’ll be careful to refrain from replying to your supportive 538 comments, if any.

Your beef seems to be with the pollsters rather than 538...they just report the polls

Again, for the umpteenth time, 538s stated mission is to tell us which polls are good and which ones are bad.

I pointed out like a thousand times on here that Nate was off his rocker bc Clinton was polling every bit as good as Biden per RCP in most if not all swing states, but what did the AMT army say? “Nate knows which polls are good and RCP has garbage polls.” RCP in fact was more accurate than 538 and all they do is know which polls to include in their aggregate.

 Nate can curse all he wants but he knows less than me about politics. I’ve been warning Dems for years Florida is becoming a solid red state and what did Nate do? Categorized it as 70% chance Biden. Completely clueless.

this. is. hilarious. 

Ok freaking wise guy.

of the 11 states 538 was close in only 2. That is effing hilarious. I’m not even sure why you even care. You have Trudeau. You don’t have to live shoulder to shoulder with republicans. You don’t understand them, so why pretend. I’m betting Nate doesn’t either in his big liberal city. But I do, and I knew Nate was full of complete shyte in many states

no one on this thread was willing to concede this election being 60/40 since the summer, not 90/10. And you have the gall to ridicule? 

538 was off by-

8 - WI

7- OH

6- FL IA MI

5- PA NV TX

4- NC

9 of 11 outside a reasonable margin of error. Missed the senate completely and overestimated the Dems house majority by double.

But if you have a name for yourself in the liberal culture, you get to keep your website and curse your critics without a platform.

Congrats Nate, you were within 1 on GA and AZ.

F Me In The Brain

Lerxst.com is still available.  You can determine the content but it sounds like you are at expert level for polling aggregation -- perhaps Fox Sports can buy you and you can rival 538.  That would be sweet, for you, I am sure Nate is making a crapton (statistical term) of money this year.

HughFreakingDillon

Lerxst1992 said:

JHughFreakingDillon said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

MayDay10 said:

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323991891453632512

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323993051073794053

What a joke. The four bumps to the right are MUCH larger and 538 predicted 338 electoral votes for Biden with an 89% chance of winning.

RCP and trafalgar did a better job than 538.

What's wit your blood vendetta against 538? First,  Trafalgar predicted a Trump win.  You're arguing the spread is more important than the super bowl win.  Second,  RCP does zero analysis.  They are just aggregating and averaging. 

You see the bump in that picture on the right? You saw the prediction of 338 EVs? You saw numerous states listed as Biden 95% which were nail biters this election and last? 538 had zero clue what was going to happen this election.  Wittes is a joke for sending that tweet.

538 is an interesting outfit that does publish good articles, but their ability to understand the American electorate since trump took the escalator ride from hell is garbage and feeds into trumps fake news narrative.

If you call a state 95% and then win the state by one vote,  you were right. 

Their job was to characterize the election. Their job was to distinguish for us the good polls vs the bad ones. They were wrong. Again. On a catastrophic level. They could have kept a few thousand voters home in key states.

Let’s just be civil and agree to disagree. I’ll be careful to refrain from replying to your supportive 538 comments, if any.

Your beef seems to be with the pollsters rather than 538...they just report the polls

Again, for the umpteenth time, 538s stated mission is to tell us which polls are good and which ones are bad.

I pointed out like a thousand times on here that Nate was off his rocker bc Clinton was polling every bit as good as Biden per RCP in most if not all swing states, but what did the AMT army say? “Nate knows which polls are good and RCP has garbage polls.” RCP in fact was more accurate than 538 and all they do is know which polls to include in their aggregate.

 Nate can curse all he wants but he knows less than me about politics. I’ve been warning Dems for years Florida is becoming a solid red state and what did Nate do? Categorized it as 70% chance Biden. Completely clueless.

this. is. hilarious. 

Ok freaking wise guy.

of the 11 states 538 was close in only 2. That is effing hilarious. I’m not even sure why you even care. You have Trudeau. You don’t have to live shoulder to shoulder with republicans. You don’t understand them, so why pretend. I’m betting Nate doesn’t either in his big liberal city. But I do, and I knew Nate was full of complete shyte in many states

no one on this thread was willing to concede this election being 60/40 since the summer, not 90/10. And you have the gall to ridicule? 

538 was off by-

8 - WI

7- OH

6- FL IA MI

5- PA NV TX

4- NC

9 of 11 outside a reasonable margin of error. Missed the senate completely and overestimated the Dems house majority by double.

But if you have a name for yourself in the liberal culture, you get to keep your website and curse your critics without a platform.

Congrats Nate, you were within 1 on GA and AZ.

LOL. look at nate's history of calling elections, federal and state. one of the worlds most influential people by time magazine for his record on predicting political outcomes. 

but ok. you know more than he does. 

PJNB

I was hard on Nate at first but if Florida went blue (he admitted he messed up on the Hispanic vote) and if mail in ballots were counted first along with everything else we would not be having this discussion I do not think. 

Lerxst1992

HughFreakingDillon said:

Lerxst1992 said:

JHughFreakingDillon said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

MayDay10 said:

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323991891453632512

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323993051073794053

What a joke. The four bumps to the right are MUCH larger and 538 predicted 338 electoral votes for Biden with an 89% chance of winning.

RCP and trafalgar did a better job than 538.

What's wit your blood vendetta against 538? First,  Trafalgar predicted a Trump win.  You're arguing the spread is more important than the super bowl win.  Second,  RCP does zero analysis.  They are just aggregating and averaging. 

You see the bump in that picture on the right? You saw the prediction of 338 EVs? You saw numerous states listed as Biden 95% which were nail biters this election and last? 538 had zero clue what was going to happen this election.  Wittes is a joke for sending that tweet.

538 is an interesting outfit that does publish good articles, but their ability to understand the American electorate since trump took the escalator ride from hell is garbage and feeds into trumps fake news narrative.

If you call a state 95% and then win the state by one vote,  you were right. 

Their job was to characterize the election. Their job was to distinguish for us the good polls vs the bad ones. They were wrong. Again. On a catastrophic level. They could have kept a few thousand voters home in key states.

Let’s just be civil and agree to disagree. I’ll be careful to refrain from replying to your supportive 538 comments, if any.

Your beef seems to be with the pollsters rather than 538...they just report the polls

Again, for the umpteenth time, 538s stated mission is to tell us which polls are good and which ones are bad.

I pointed out like a thousand times on here that Nate was off his rocker bc Clinton was polling every bit as good as Biden per RCP in most if not all swing states, but what did the AMT army say? “Nate knows which polls are good and RCP has garbage polls.” RCP in fact was more accurate than 538 and all they do is know which polls to include in their aggregate.

 Nate can curse all he wants but he knows less than me about politics. I’ve been warning Dems for years Florida is becoming a solid red state and what did Nate do? Categorized it as 70% chance Biden. Completely clueless.

this. is. hilarious. 

Ok freaking wise guy.

of the 11 states 538 was close in only 2. That is effing hilarious. I’m not even sure why you even care. You have Trudeau. You don’t have to live shoulder to shoulder with republicans. You don’t understand them, so why pretend. I’m betting Nate doesn’t either in his big liberal city. But I do, and I knew Nate was full of complete shyte in many states

no one on this thread was willing to concede this election being 60/40 since the summer, not 90/10. And you have the gall to ridicule? 

538 was off by-

8 - WI

7- OH

6- FL IA MI

5- PA NV TX

4- NC

9 of 11 outside a reasonable margin of error. Missed the senate completely and overestimated the Dems house majority by double.

But if you have a name for yourself in the liberal culture, you get to keep your website and curse your critics without a platform.

Congrats Nate, you were within 1 on GA and AZ.

LOL. look at nate's history of calling elections, federal and state. one of the worlds most influential people by time magazine for his record on predicting political outcomes. 

but ok. you know more than he does. 

Also off in 2016. In 2012 he had to answer to NYT editors IIRC, so they probably roped him in that year.

 Trump changed politics and culture in this country. Many of my fellow liberals in big cities and across the international community have no idea what that means. Nate is one of them. But hey, he has liberal accolades, let’s give him a standing ovation to that body of work itemized above. Funny thing is, I supported him in 16 and his gigantic errors then and generally like his site, but he continually misunderstands the trump phenomenon. That almost hurt Biden in a big way.

Poncier

tbergs said:

mrussel1 said:

Poncier said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Annnnnd yup:

https://twitter.com/timmarchman/status/1324404992808275971?s=20

Silver is taking a victory lap while Biden is up just under 2.5 points nationally and his model predicted 8.4 in his final post.
Its not getting to 5 or 6 like he says, not enough votes left to make that happen.

My prediction was 10 million margin if votes were around 160 million.  I think that's a little aggressive, but I think it will be close once all of the votes are counted.  3 million up now with allegedly close to 15 million to go.

Biden will get another million out of CA alone. Those saying Nate is taking a victory lap are falling for the Trumpism of all results should be known on election day. Biden very well will win by over 5 million in the popular vote. If Trump wanted to be consistent he would be saying to stop the counting in every state, not just the one's where he knows he could lose. 

Yeah, no. Nothing Trumpism about my questioning.
Nate said Biden would end up winning by5 or 6 percentage points, not 5 million votes in the post I questioned. He's up 2.68 points currently with a nearly 4 million vote lead. Another million or so vote lead does not get him 3 more percentage points.
His final average popular vote call of Biden +8.4 will not be terribly close. It'll be about Biden +3.

Poncier

PJNB said:

I was hard on Nate at first but if Florida went blue (he admitted he messed up on the Hispanic vote) and if mail in ballots were counted first along with everything else we would not be having this discussion I do not think. 

If the queen had balls she'd be king.

Jearlpam0925

Yeah, I don't give a shit about any of that. Nate's fine. All this thread does is figure out who takes forecasts for fact and/or definitive result.

MayDay10

its like a hurricane forecast.  There is a cone of likelihood that the hurricane might take as a path.  The way this is going is reasonably within that cone.

If all these votes were counted on Tuesday night, this thing would have been over before midnight and Biden would have 306 votes and it wouldnt 'seem' as close as it has seemed.

PJNB

Poncier said:

PJNB said:

I was hard on Nate at first but if Florida went blue (he admitted he messed up on the Hispanic vote) and if mail in ballots were counted first along with everything else we would not be having this discussion I do not think. 

If the queen had balls she'd be king.

So just Florida then? 

JimmyV

MayDay10 said:

its like a hurricane forecast.  There is a cone of likelihood that the hurricane might take as a path.  The way this is going is reasonably within that cone.

If all these votes were counted on Tuesday night, this thing would have been over before midnight and Biden would have 306 votes and it wouldnt 'seem' as close as it has seemed.

This is true. 

Jearlpam0925

MayDay10 said:

its like a hurricane forecast.  There is a cone of likelihood that the hurricane might take as a path.  The way this is going is reasonably within that cone.

If all these votes were counted on Tuesday night, this thing would have been over before midnight and Biden would have 306 votes and it wouldnt 'seem' as close as it has seemed.

Haha, I know, I mean the ride was nauseating, but we're ending up in the same spot.

And while I'm at it - all the polls/forecasts/odds helped me make money out of all this:

Lerxst1992

Geez this topic was floating to the bottom where it belonged. 538 missed everywhere and many moderate Dems are gone because pollsters and forecasters completely missed what was happening in purple suburban districts. They do this again in 2022 with the Rs being the party of opposition, the midterms could be a blood bath.


Ill just keep posting the below facts, y’all believe what you must.

538 President estimate was off by-

8 - WI

7- OH

6- FL IA MI

5- PA NV TX

4- NC

9 of 11 states outside a reasonable margin of error. 

Missed the senate completely and overestimated the Dems house majority by double.


Many House Dems are furious, not sure exactly what the rationale is on this forum for thinking 538 had a clue what’s going on. Something is brewing in this country, and the pollsters/ forecasters completely missed it.

 My safe Dem Congressperson is actually losing right now still waiting for some mail in ballots. I have not had a republican congressman in decades, if ever.

....
Other races, 

” She specifically pointed to the defund the police movement and said it hurt her and other moderates who were in tight races. 

Spanberger raised her voice, telling fellow Democrats they needed to learn a lesson from this cycle or "we will be f---ing torn apart in 2022." 

Several of the Democrats who lost their races also offered assessments of the election, including Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, one of two moderates in South Florida who lost to Republican challengers. 

She started to cry as she described the many messages and calls she's received from colleagues. "The loss on Tuesday was heartbreaking. I'm not going to lie," she said, her voice cracking. 

Jearlpam0925

All this time, and still don't know what a forecast is.

Gern Blansten

PJNB said:

Poncier said:

PJNB said:

I was hard on Nate at first but if Florida went blue (he admitted he messed up on the Hispanic vote) and if mail in ballots were counted first along with everything else we would not be having this discussion I do not think. 

If the queen had balls she'd be king.

So just Florida then? 

So far FL and possibly NC....other than that spot on

yes the spreads were wrong in some states....the spreads were accurate in some states....it's a prediction

F Me In The Brain

Jearlpam0925 said:

All this time, and still don't know what a forecast is.

A BertCast?

CM189191

Jearlpam0925 said:

MayDay10 said:

its like a hurricane forecast.  There is a cone of likelihood that the hurricane might take as a path.  The way this is going is reasonably within that cone.

If all these votes were counted on Tuesday night, this thing would have been over before midnight and Biden would have 306 votes and it wouldnt 'seem' as close as it has seemed.

Haha, I know, I mean the ride was nauseating, but we're ending up in the same spot.

And while I'm at it - all the polls/forecasts/odds helped me make money out of all this:

Yup, bought a boatload of pot stocks when it looked like a Biden win

Lerxst1992

Jearlpam0925 said:

All this time, and still don't know what a forecast is.

If you are going to violate the rules here, have some guts and just quote me and self report yourself to the mods. You can sit in detention next to senator romney.

HughFreakingDillon

Lerxst1992 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

All this time, and still don't know what a forecast is.

If you are going to violate the rules here, have some guts and just quote me and self report yourself to the mods. You can sit in detention next to senator romney.

what rule did they break?

Lerxst1992

: to calculate or predict (some future event or condition) usually as a result of study and analysis of available pertinent data

: to indicate as likely to occur

Maybe Pelosi and Schumer can chime in on how accurate their model was.

....

“ Our model relies mainly on state polls, which it combines with demographic, economic and other data to forecast what will happen on Election Day. If you want to see a snapshot of what voters are thinking right now — with no fancy modeling — check out the national polls.”

.....
ok, phrase by phrase,

Our model relies mainly on state polls-
...ok 538, you’re at a disadvantage because polling no longer works in the current technological world, but 538, you decide  which polls to include and exclude, which RCP somehow did better...again

which it combines with demographic, — got it wrong

economic — got it wrong

and other data — got it wrong

to forecast what will happen on Election Day (making weathermen look like geniuses. Clearly, nobody was expecting a nail biter, and Dems to be uncompetitive in several key senate seats they were, forecasted, to win. As well as hemorrhage about 11 seats off of their expected House majority, and counting.)

If you want to see a snapshot of what voters are thinking right now ( look at RCP as they have done a much better job than we did, again.)
..
but hey, it is an interesting website, Jearl.

Mods is there a way we can see if this pointless and divisive thread ... can touch the bottom...of AMT?
thanks!