Nate Silver 538

Lerxst1992

HughFreakingDillon said:

benjs said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Damn this thread needs to drop to the bottom.


538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.

Polls lead to aggregates which lead to simulations which inform forecasts. Forecasts predict error by watching prior error and finding out how error itself trends, as well as watching individual cohort behaviours. Simulations arrive everywhere on the spectrum from Trump winning by landslides, to Biden winning by landslides, and every outcome in between. By projecting 91% odds of winning, 538 are explicitly stating that 91% of their 40,000 simulations, once error is accounted for, yielded a Biden victory. This is one of those outcomes. You're trying to argue with math, and I'm not sure I understand why. 

desperate to be right

Liberal QAnon made its way to Manitoba? I would never expect a Canadian to understand  the trump phenomenon 

Silver got shamed. Wrong outside MoE in 9 of 11 key states. Lecture me he is not a pollster. Then after he screws up, lecture me because he can’t do a good job because the polls suck.

He has a lot of interesting articles and writers but he made hundreds of factual errors this year and should get out of the prediction business. No the pollsters did not compensate for NCWs. No Biden did no make major widespread  strides in suburbs except for a small shift in a tiny handful  of metro areas that prevented a disaster. Completely missed an R+22 shift in the most important swing state metro area,  Most voters did the same thing as last time, as many warned him was going to happen, but Nate knows better. Throw away 39,999 of those simulations, as they were absolute garbage and almost cost Biden the win.

Gern Blansten

Lerxst1992 said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

benjs said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Damn this thread needs to drop to the bottom.


538 is like the QAnon of the left. Biden won by less than one percent in the tipping point state. If biden was one percent more liberal, trump would have cruised to victory. No forecaster predicted that.

Polls lead to aggregates which lead to simulations which inform forecasts. Forecasts predict error by watching prior error and finding out how error itself trends, as well as watching individual cohort behaviours. Simulations arrive everywhere on the spectrum from Trump winning by landslides, to Biden winning by landslides, and every outcome in between. By projecting 91% odds of winning, 538 are explicitly stating that 91% of their 40,000 simulations, once error is accounted for, yielded a Biden victory. This is one of those outcomes. You're trying to argue with math, and I'm not sure I understand why. 

desperate to be right

Liberal QAnon made its way to Manitoba? I would never expect a Canadian to understand  the trump phenomenon 

Silver got shamed. Wrong outside MoE in 9 of 11 key states. Lecture me he is not a pollster. Then after he screws up, lecture me because he can’t do a good job because the polls suck.

He has a lot of interesting articles and writers but he made hundreds of factual errors this year and should get out of the prediction business. No the pollsters did not compensate for NCWs. No Biden did no make major widespread  strides in suburbs except for a small shift in a tiny handful  of metro areas that prevented a disaster. Completely missed an R+22 shift in the most important swing state metro area,  Most voters did the same thing as last time, as many warned him was going to happen, but Nate knows better. Throw away 39,999 of those simulations, as they were absolute garbage and almost cost Biden the win.

You clearly paid no attention. Silver constantly said that things would be tighter if polls were adjusted to margins of error. 

F Me In The Brain

Liberal Q.  That is funny.  As in, dumb as hell, but the term itself makes me laugh.

At least there is that....

Lerxst1992

As dumb as wanting to be called an action that would lead to your demise?

F Me In The Brain

Right.  ?>?>?

You started a thread to share Trump's genius.....you may have better luck finding people who agree with you there. 

Or, maybe not.  Time will tell. 

If not, you should come back over here and argue with everyone some more.

Jearlpam0925

This thread is good:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1326913638909808642?s=20

Jearlpam0925

Jearlpam0925 said:

I love nerding out on this shit.

When I check his numbers I don't really get caught up in his electoral vote prediction, though you definitely have to look at specific states (swing) for the overall prediction of a win, or his %s. 84 out of 16 still means 16 times out of 100 is a Trump win, which is not nothing. If you were rolling dice and hit on the first roll (Election Day) then game over.

Personally, I'll look at his popular vote prediction and then specifically look at FL, PA, MI, WI, AZ. The thought is anything over 6 points is a win. I like to play it conservative and say 7. Right now he has Biden at 7.9 - I really don't think 130+ electoral margin is going to happen, though I think a 100+ could definitely happen. If Biden gets FL it's a done deal. If he loses FL but regains PA it's also a lock because I don't see him losing 2 of PA/WI/MI like how 2016 happened. The only way that happens is if AZ doesn't push over like so many think then all of a sudden NE2 comes into play (Obamaha).

Pretty wild to see The Economist has Biden up to 91% to win the electoral vote. Any time %'s get to 95% you can call it an absolute certainty (depending on the source and this is a good source).

To me, if it's a blowout electorally (via the popular vote it will be a blowout), this is what it looks like:

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

But this is my realistic prediction:

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Alright, everyone who posted a map show it. This is what I had. I was off by Georgia and NE-2. I'll quibble you can flip ME and NE districts here.

HughFreakingDillon

F Me In The Brain said:

Liberal Q.  That is funny.  As in, dumb as hell, but the term itself makes me laugh.

At least there is that....

I'm Liberal Q. who knew? LOL. maybe I'm the one who spray painted the save the children hashtag on that railway overpass on my way to work. 

I guess I just forgot. 

Gern Blansten

Jearlpam0925 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

I love nerding out on this shit.

When I check his numbers I don't really get caught up in his electoral vote prediction, though you definitely have to look at specific states (swing) for the overall prediction of a win, or his %s. 84 out of 16 still means 16 times out of 100 is a Trump win, which is not nothing. If you were rolling dice and hit on the first roll (Election Day) then game over.

Personally, I'll look at his popular vote prediction and then specifically look at FL, PA, MI, WI, AZ. The thought is anything over 6 points is a win. I like to play it conservative and say 7. Right now he has Biden at 7.9 - I really don't think 130+ electoral margin is going to happen, though I think a 100+ could definitely happen. If Biden gets FL it's a done deal. If he loses FL but regains PA it's also a lock because I don't see him losing 2 of PA/WI/MI like how 2016 happened. The only way that happens is if AZ doesn't push over like so many think then all of a sudden NE2 comes into play (Obamaha).

Pretty wild to see The Economist has Biden up to 91% to win the electoral vote. Any time %'s get to 95% you can call it an absolute certainty (depending on the source and this is a good source).

To me, if it's a blowout electorally (via the popular vote it will be a blowout), this is what it looks like:

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

But this is my realistic prediction:

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Alright, everyone who posted a map show it. This is what I had. I was off by Georgia and NE-2. I'll quibble you can flip ME and NE districts here.

I didn't save it but I was really thinking Biden would have 411....over optimistic 

mrussel1

Gern Blansten said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

I love nerding out on this shit.

When I check his numbers I don't really get caught up in his electoral vote prediction, though you definitely have to look at specific states (swing) for the overall prediction of a win, or his %s. 84 out of 16 still means 16 times out of 100 is a Trump win, which is not nothing. If you were rolling dice and hit on the first roll (Election Day) then game over.

Personally, I'll look at his popular vote prediction and then specifically look at FL, PA, MI, WI, AZ. The thought is anything over 6 points is a win. I like to play it conservative and say 7. Right now he has Biden at 7.9 - I really don't think 130+ electoral margin is going to happen, though I think a 100+ could definitely happen. If Biden gets FL it's a done deal. If he loses FL but regains PA it's also a lock because I don't see him losing 2 of PA/WI/MI like how 2016 happened. The only way that happens is if AZ doesn't push over like so many think then all of a sudden NE2 comes into play (Obamaha).

Pretty wild to see The Economist has Biden up to 91% to win the electoral vote. Any time %'s get to 95% you can call it an absolute certainty (depending on the source and this is a good source).

To me, if it's a blowout electorally (via the popular vote it will be a blowout), this is what it looks like:

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

But this is my realistic prediction:

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Alright, everyone who posted a map show it. This is what I had. I was off by Georgia and NE-2. I'll quibble you can flip ME and NE districts here.

I didn't save it but I was really thinking Biden would have 411....over optimistic 

I expected AZ, but not GA.  I thought NC was 50/50. 

Gern Blansten

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

I love nerding out on this shit.

When I check his numbers I don't really get caught up in his electoral vote prediction, though you definitely have to look at specific states (swing) for the overall prediction of a win, or his %s. 84 out of 16 still means 16 times out of 100 is a Trump win, which is not nothing. If you were rolling dice and hit on the first roll (Election Day) then game over.

Personally, I'll look at his popular vote prediction and then specifically look at FL, PA, MI, WI, AZ. The thought is anything over 6 points is a win. I like to play it conservative and say 7. Right now he has Biden at 7.9 - I really don't think 130+ electoral margin is going to happen, though I think a 100+ could definitely happen. If Biden gets FL it's a done deal. If he loses FL but regains PA it's also a lock because I don't see him losing 2 of PA/WI/MI like how 2016 happened. The only way that happens is if AZ doesn't push over like so many think then all of a sudden NE2 comes into play (Obamaha).

Pretty wild to see The Economist has Biden up to 91% to win the electoral vote. Any time %'s get to 95% you can call it an absolute certainty (depending on the source and this is a good source).

To me, if it's a blowout electorally (via the popular vote it will be a blowout), this is what it looks like:

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

But this is my realistic prediction:

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Alright, everyone who posted a map show it. This is what I had. I was off by Georgia and NE-2. I'll quibble you can flip ME and NE districts here.

I didn't save it but I was really thinking Biden would have 411....over optimistic 

I expected AZ, but not GA.  I thought NC was 50/50. 

I was thinking TX, FL and OH would turn blue....boy that was a fucked up thought.  

mrussel1

Gern Blansten said:

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

I love nerding out on this shit.

When I check his numbers I don't really get caught up in his electoral vote prediction, though you definitely have to look at specific states (swing) for the overall prediction of a win, or his %s. 84 out of 16 still means 16 times out of 100 is a Trump win, which is not nothing. If you were rolling dice and hit on the first roll (Election Day) then game over.

Personally, I'll look at his popular vote prediction and then specifically look at FL, PA, MI, WI, AZ. The thought is anything over 6 points is a win. I like to play it conservative and say 7. Right now he has Biden at 7.9 - I really don't think 130+ electoral margin is going to happen, though I think a 100+ could definitely happen. If Biden gets FL it's a done deal. If he loses FL but regains PA it's also a lock because I don't see him losing 2 of PA/WI/MI like how 2016 happened. The only way that happens is if AZ doesn't push over like so many think then all of a sudden NE2 comes into play (Obamaha).

Pretty wild to see The Economist has Biden up to 91% to win the electoral vote. Any time %'s get to 95% you can call it an absolute certainty (depending on the source and this is a good source).

To me, if it's a blowout electorally (via the popular vote it will be a blowout), this is what it looks like:

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

But this is my realistic prediction:

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Alright, everyone who posted a map show it. This is what I had. I was off by Georgia and NE-2. I'll quibble you can flip ME and NE districts here.

I didn't save it but I was really thinking Biden would have 411....over optimistic 

I expected AZ, but not GA.  I thought NC was 50/50. 

I was thinking TX, FL and OH would turn blue....boy that was a fucked up thought.  

FL and OH are going the other way.  Like Missouri.  These states are becoming more red.  More and more, the split will be by education level more than anything else.  That's the new alignment. 

Jearlpam0925

You mean becoming dumber. Yes, I'm a dick.

The Juggler

Georgia polling was spot on...

The Juggler

I doubt it will be anywhere near a 16 point margin, but still should be a safe win for Newsom tonight...and then the republicans will continue their Big Lie (which they started once they started getting polling numbers a couple weeks ago)

Jearlpam0925

The Juggler said:

I doubt it will be anywhere near a 16 point margin, but still should be a safe win for Newsom tonight...and then the republicans will continue their Big Lie (which they started once they started getting polling numbers a couple weeks ago)

A shame it's even that close. I saw a pretty good quote somewhere - forget where now, parahrasing here, too - but people lean towards conspiracy theories in times of uncertainty/trauma/major global incidents.

And what's a shame is this is the gameplan for every Republican in elections going forward - especially high profile elections: when you lose cry RIGGED. Saw this coming before November, and it's never going away. Goddamn shame.

We could clear this all up with rank choice voting, approval voting, etc. Any kind of voting that isn't based on the plurality of a minority.

mickeyrat

Elder put up claims of fraud on his website yesterday or the day before.

Frankly, I'd have had more respect if he cried racism instead.

HughFreakingDillon

mickeyrat said:

Elder put up claims of fraud on his website yesterday or the day before.

Frankly, I'd have had more respect if he cried racism instead.

And the text already read that it was the reason he LOST. like it already happened. such bullshit. 

Gern Blansten

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

I love nerding out on this shit.

When I check his numbers I don't really get caught up in his electoral vote prediction, though you definitely have to look at specific states (swing) for the overall prediction of a win, or his %s. 84 out of 16 still means 16 times out of 100 is a Trump win, which is not nothing. If you were rolling dice and hit on the first roll (Election Day) then game over.

Personally, I'll look at his popular vote prediction and then specifically look at FL, PA, MI, WI, AZ. The thought is anything over 6 points is a win. I like to play it conservative and say 7. Right now he has Biden at 7.9 - I really don't think 130+ electoral margin is going to happen, though I think a 100+ could definitely happen. If Biden gets FL it's a done deal. If he loses FL but regains PA it's also a lock because I don't see him losing 2 of PA/WI/MI like how 2016 happened. The only way that happens is if AZ doesn't push over like so many think then all of a sudden NE2 comes into play (Obamaha).

Pretty wild to see The Economist has Biden up to 91% to win the electoral vote. Any time %'s get to 95% you can call it an absolute certainty (depending on the source and this is a good source).

To me, if it's a blowout electorally (via the popular vote it will be a blowout), this is what it looks like:

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

But this is my realistic prediction:

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Alright, everyone who posted a map show it. This is what I had. I was off by Georgia and NE-2. I'll quibble you can flip ME and NE districts here.

I didn't save it but I was really thinking Biden would have 411....over optimistic 

I expected AZ, but not GA.  I thought NC was 50/50. 

I was thinking TX, FL and OH would turn blue....boy that was a fucked up thought.  

FL and OH are going the other way.  Like Missouri.  These states are becoming more red.  More and more, the split will be by education level more than anything else.  That's the new alignment. 

Revisiting this comment to say that the OH county that I grew up in (Darke) is, I believe, the lowest vaccinated county in OH at around 36% or something.  And people are proud of that.

It is full of blue collar workers that think the GOP is just awesome.

gimmesometruth27

mickeyrat said:

Elder put up claims of fraud on his website yesterday or the day before.

Frankly, I'd have had more respect if he cried racism instead.

well it is page 1 in the trump playbook. lose, and you call it rigged.

just wait until the proud boys from out of state storm the california governors mansion and try to take it by force.