Nate Silver 538

mrussel1

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

MayDay10 said:

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323991891453632512

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323993051073794053

What a joke. The four bumps to the right are MUCH larger and 538 predicted 338 electoral votes for Biden with an 89% chance of winning.

RCP and trafalgar did a better job than 538.

What's wit your blood vendetta against 538? First,  Trafalgar predicted a Trump win.  You're arguing the spread is more important than the super bowl win.  Second,  RCP does zero analysis.  They are just aggregating and averaging. 

You see the bump in that picture on the right? You saw the prediction of 338 EVs? You saw numerous states listed as Biden 95% which were nail biters this election and last? 538 had zero clue what was going to happen this election.  Wittes is a joke for sending that tweet.

538 is an interesting outfit that does publish good articles, but their ability to understand the American electorate since trump took the escalator ride from hell is garbage and feeds into trumps fake news narrative.

If you call a state 95% and then win the state by one vote,  you were right. 

Their job was to characterize the election. Their job was to distinguish for us the good polls vs the bad ones. They were wrong. Again. On a catastrophic level. They could have kept a few thousand voters home in key states.

Let’s just be civil and agree to disagree. I’ll be careful to refrain from replying to your supportive 538 comments, if any.

I don't think I'm being uncivil.  Also I'm neither supportive or critical of him.  He's a modeler.  I started my career modeling credit risk.  The shit is hard and can send you in a million different directions.  Sometimes you feel like you're wrong as often as you are right, but what you're trying to do is mitigate the margins of your errors.  I think Nate's job is even harder than normal modeling because he's using source data that may be corrupted before he even touches it, which is what he's trying to adjust.  It's just an interesting website to me, not an actual crystal ball.

I did not intend to imply you were being uncivil, sorry about that. I think pollsters and modelers need to look at results on a county by county level. Stop with the hundreds of polls each week and look how people vote based on mileage from urban centers and how the historic lean of the state is. Make each poll organic. Put more hard work into it.

 This election was extremely similar to 2016 which made sense since Labor Day as trump was winning his covid is BS argument, which told us all we needed to know about insane rural and exurban voters. The economy is the most important issue. That is beyond nuts but that’s what the polls kept saying, neck and neck w covid.

This election was not that difficult. I could not even budge the discussion here (this is no way on you) that it was more of a 60/40 at best and not 86 to 90 for Biden 

And thats not mentioning how 538 completely missed on the senate and overestimated the dem control In the house by predicting the Dems would get 21 seats over the majority and will likely end up with only 11. Massive misses everywhere.

The polling you're talking about would be massively expensive.  And if you think about it, a campaign isn't going to pay for that.  They use polls to determine where to invest their resources, not to predict if they will win and by how much..necessarily.  If it's close, within the MOE, that's where they invest.  

Gern Blansten

https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/1324355542048034822

LOL

“If they’re coming after FiveThirtyEight, then the answer is fuck you, we did a good job!” Silver replied, explaining that the only reason former Vice President Joe Biden was considered such a heavy favorite in the site’s closely watched model was because “he could withstand a 2016-style polling error or a bit larger” and still win the election. On the eve of that election, FiveThirtyEight gave Donald Trump a 28.6 percent chance of winning, much higher than other polling aggregators.

Jearlpam0925

Still a lot of value on Al Gross in AK if you're looking for an underdog.

JimmyV

I'll feel a lot better about this if/when Joe Biden actually does win the election.

Jearlpam0925

Perdue is below 50% for Senate so that race will head to a runoff in January. If you know anyone in GA that needs to register to vote they can do so until December 9th I believe.

Jearlpam0925

Annnnnd yup:

https://twitter.com/timmarchman/status/1324404992808275971?s=20

mrussel1

Jearlpam0925 said:

Annnnnd yup:

https://twitter.com/timmarchman/status/1324404992808275971?s=20

I predicted 10mm vote win for Biden.  I think that might be a stretch because I was thinking 160 mm voters.  Looks like that's a little high. 

Poncier

Jearlpam0925 said:

Annnnnd yup:

https://twitter.com/timmarchman/status/1324404992808275971?s=20

Silver is taking a victory lap while Biden is up just under 2.5 points nationally and his model predicted 8.4 in his final post.
Its not getting to 5 or 6 like he says, not enough votes left to make that happen.

JimmyV

Biden has a 4 million vote lead in California with only 66% of the count in, so his popular vote lead is likely to increase. However, that number will tell us as little about the nation as a whole as it did in 2016. 

HughFreakingDillon

so if biden wins even 3 out of the 5 remaining states once everything is counted, is nate still garbage?

mrussel1

Poncier said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Annnnnd yup:

https://twitter.com/timmarchman/status/1324404992808275971?s=20

Silver is taking a victory lap while Biden is up just under 2.5 points nationally and his model predicted 8.4 in his final post.
Its not getting to 5 or 6 like he says, not enough votes left to make that happen.

My prediction was 10 million margin if votes were around 160 million.  I think that's a little aggressive, but I think it will be close once all of the votes are counted.  3 million up now with allegedly close to 15 million to go.

tbergs

mrussel1 said:

Poncier said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Annnnnd yup:

https://twitter.com/timmarchman/status/1324404992808275971?s=20

Silver is taking a victory lap while Biden is up just under 2.5 points nationally and his model predicted 8.4 in his final post.
Its not getting to 5 or 6 like he says, not enough votes left to make that happen.

My prediction was 10 million margin if votes were around 160 million.  I think that's a little aggressive, but I think it will be close once all of the votes are counted.  3 million up now with allegedly close to 15 million to go.

Biden will get another million out of CA alone. Those saying Nate is taking a victory lap are falling for the Trumpism of all results should be known on election day. Biden very well will win by over 5 million in the popular vote. If Trump wanted to be consistent he would be saying to stop the counting in every state, not just the one's where he knows he could lose. 

Gern Blansten

yeah there is still 6 million votes to count in CA

OnWis97

Gern Blansten said:

yeah there is still 6 million votes to count in CA

Really?  And none of his offspring have claimed victory in California?

Gern Blansten

OnWis97 said:

Gern Blansten said:

yeah there is still 6 million votes to count in CA

Really?  And none of his offspring have claimed victory in California?

Not yet...

JimmyV

Questioning Nate Silver (at least on this board) has nothing to do with Trump or Trumpism. 

Lerxst1992

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

MayDay10 said:

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323991891453632512

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323993051073794053

What a joke. The four bumps to the right are MUCH larger and 538 predicted 338 electoral votes for Biden with an 89% chance of winning.

RCP and trafalgar did a better job than 538.

What's wit your blood vendetta against 538? First,  Trafalgar predicted a Trump win.  You're arguing the spread is more important than the super bowl win.  Second,  RCP does zero analysis.  They are just aggregating and averaging. 

You see the bump in that picture on the right? You saw the prediction of 338 EVs? You saw numerous states listed as Biden 95% which were nail biters this election and last? 538 had zero clue what was going to happen this election.  Wittes is a joke for sending that tweet.

538 is an interesting outfit that does publish good articles, but their ability to understand the American electorate since trump took the escalator ride from hell is garbage and feeds into trumps fake news narrative.

If you call a state 95% and then win the state by one vote,  you were right. 

Their job was to characterize the election. Their job was to distinguish for us the good polls vs the bad ones. They were wrong. Again. On a catastrophic level. They could have kept a few thousand voters home in key states.

Let’s just be civil and agree to disagree. I’ll be careful to refrain from replying to your supportive 538 comments, if any.

Your beef seems to be with the pollsters rather than 538...they just report the polls

Again, for the umpteenth time, 538s stated mission is to tell us which polls are good and which ones are bad.

I pointed out like a thousand times on here that Nate was off his rocker bc Clinton was polling every bit as good as Biden per RCP in most if not all swing states, but what did the AMT army say? “Nate knows which polls are good and RCP has garbage polls.” RCP in fact was more accurate than 538 and all they do is know which polls to include in their aggregate.

 Nate can curse all he wants but he knows less than me about politics. I’ve been warning Dems for years Florida is becoming a solid red state and what did Nate do? Categorized it as 70% chance Biden. Completely clueless.

F Me In The Brain

You should get your own website 

HughFreakingDillon

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

MayDay10 said:

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323991891453632512

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323993051073794053

What a joke. The four bumps to the right are MUCH larger and 538 predicted 338 electoral votes for Biden with an 89% chance of winning.

RCP and trafalgar did a better job than 538.

What's wit your blood vendetta against 538? First,  Trafalgar predicted a Trump win.  You're arguing the spread is more important than the super bowl win.  Second,  RCP does zero analysis.  They are just aggregating and averaging. 

You see the bump in that picture on the right? You saw the prediction of 338 EVs? You saw numerous states listed as Biden 95% which were nail biters this election and last? 538 had zero clue what was going to happen this election.  Wittes is a joke for sending that tweet.

538 is an interesting outfit that does publish good articles, but their ability to understand the American electorate since trump took the escalator ride from hell is garbage and feeds into trumps fake news narrative.

If you call a state 95% and then win the state by one vote,  you were right. 

Their job was to characterize the election. Their job was to distinguish for us the good polls vs the bad ones. They were wrong. Again. On a catastrophic level. They could have kept a few thousand voters home in key states.

Let’s just be civil and agree to disagree. I’ll be careful to refrain from replying to your supportive 538 comments, if any.

Your beef seems to be with the pollsters rather than 538...they just report the polls

Again, for the umpteenth time, 538s stated mission is to tell us which polls are good and which ones are bad.

I pointed out like a thousand times on here that Nate was off his rocker bc Clinton was polling every bit as good as Biden per RCP in most if not all swing states, but what did the AMT army say? “Nate knows which polls are good and RCP has garbage polls.” RCP in fact was more accurate than 538 and all they do is know which polls to include in their aggregate.

 Nate can curse all he wants but he knows less than me about politics. I’ve been warning Dems for years Florida is becoming a solid red state and what did Nate do? Categorized it as 70% chance Biden. Completely clueless.

this. is. hilarious. 

Gern Blansten

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

MayDay10 said:

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323991891453632512

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323993051073794053

What a joke. The four bumps to the right are MUCH larger and 538 predicted 338 electoral votes for Biden with an 89% chance of winning.

RCP and trafalgar did a better job than 538.

What's wit your blood vendetta against 538? First,  Trafalgar predicted a Trump win.  You're arguing the spread is more important than the super bowl win.  Second,  RCP does zero analysis.  They are just aggregating and averaging. 

You see the bump in that picture on the right? You saw the prediction of 338 EVs? You saw numerous states listed as Biden 95% which were nail biters this election and last? 538 had zero clue what was going to happen this election.  Wittes is a joke for sending that tweet.

538 is an interesting outfit that does publish good articles, but their ability to understand the American electorate since trump took the escalator ride from hell is garbage and feeds into trumps fake news narrative.

If you call a state 95% and then win the state by one vote,  you were right. 

Their job was to characterize the election. Their job was to distinguish for us the good polls vs the bad ones. They were wrong. Again. On a catastrophic level. They could have kept a few thousand voters home in key states.

Let’s just be civil and agree to disagree. I’ll be careful to refrain from replying to your supportive 538 comments, if any.

Your beef seems to be with the pollsters rather than 538...they just report the polls

Again, for the umpteenth time, 538s stated mission is to tell us which polls are good and which ones are bad.

I pointed out like a thousand times on here that Nate was off his rocker bc Clinton was polling every bit as good as Biden per RCP in most if not all swing states, but what did the AMT army say? “Nate knows which polls are good and RCP has garbage polls.” RCP in fact was more accurate than 538 and all they do is know which polls to include in their aggregate.

 Nate can curse all he wants but he knows less than me about politics. I’ve been warning Dems for years Florida is becoming a solid red state and what did Nate do? Categorized it as 70% chance Biden. Completely clueless.

Silver wasn't constantly pointing out the spread do to polling error.