Nate Silver 538

Lerxst1992

“Biden is now raising money for a new “Biden Fight Fund,” which will finance “election protection efforts for Joe Biden and Democrats up and down the ballot,” his campaign manager says.“

Guess I’ll need to spend a little extra on uncle joe.

Gern Blansten

Lerxst1992 said:

“Biden is now raising money for a new “Biden Fight Fund,” which will finance “election protection efforts for Joe Biden and Democrats up and down the ballot,” his campaign manager says.“

Guess I’ll need to spend a little extra on uncle joe.

Yeah I'll chip in one more time.

darwinstheory

+1

mrussel1

Lerxst1992 said:

MayDay10 said:

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323991891453632512

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323993051073794053

What a joke. The four bumps to the right are MUCH larger and 538 predicted 338 electoral votes for Biden with an 89% chance of winning.

RCP and trafalgar did a better job than 538.

What's wit your blood vendetta against 538? First,  Trafalgar predicted a Trump win.  You're arguing the spread is more important than the super bowl win.  Second,  RCP does zero analysis.  They are just aggregating and averaging. 

HughFreakingDillon

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

MayDay10 said:

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323991891453632512

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323993051073794053

What a joke. The four bumps to the right are MUCH larger and 538 predicted 338 electoral votes for Biden with an 89% chance of winning.

RCP and trafalgar did a better job than 538.

What's wit your blood vendetta against 538? First,  Trafalgar predicted a Trump win.  You're arguing the spread is more important than the super bowl win.  Second,  RCP does zero analysis.  They are just aggregating and averaging. 

it's baffling

HughFreakingDillon

i don't know how many times nate had to quantify with "now, trump can still very well win the election, and here's how" and people keep complaining that he didn't get it exactly right. 

The Juggler

Never a doubt baby!!
Also, FYI, once all votes are counted...PA is not gonna be too close

Jearlpam0925

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1324164578448707585?s=19

I'd really like to get these tonight so I can actually work tomorrow. 

Lerxst1992

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

MayDay10 said:

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323991891453632512

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323993051073794053

What a joke. The four bumps to the right are MUCH larger and 538 predicted 338 electoral votes for Biden with an 89% chance of winning.

RCP and trafalgar did a better job than 538.

What's wit your blood vendetta against 538? First,  Trafalgar predicted a Trump win.  You're arguing the spread is more important than the super bowl win.  Second,  RCP does zero analysis.  They are just aggregating and averaging. 

You see the bump in that picture on the right? You saw the prediction of 338 EVs? You saw numerous states listed as Biden 95% which were nail biters this election and last? 538 had zero clue what was going to happen this election.  Wittes is a joke for sending that tweet.

538 is an interesting outfit that does publish good articles, but their ability to understand the American electorate since trump took the escalator ride from hell is garbage and feeds into trumps fake news narrative.

mrussel1

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

MayDay10 said:

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323991891453632512

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323993051073794053

What a joke. The four bumps to the right are MUCH larger and 538 predicted 338 electoral votes for Biden with an 89% chance of winning.

RCP and trafalgar did a better job than 538.

What's wit your blood vendetta against 538? First,  Trafalgar predicted a Trump win.  You're arguing the spread is more important than the super bowl win.  Second,  RCP does zero analysis.  They are just aggregating and averaging. 

You see the bump in that picture on the right? You saw the prediction of 338 EVs? You saw numerous states listed as Biden 95% which were nail biters this election and last? 538 had zero clue what was going to happen this election.  Wittes is a joke for sending that tweet.

538 is an interesting outfit that does publish good articles, but their ability to understand the American electorate since trump took the escalator ride from hell is garbage and feeds into trumps fake news narrative.

If you call a state 95% and then win the state by one vote,  you were right. 

Lerxst1992

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

MayDay10 said:

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323991891453632512

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323993051073794053

What a joke. The four bumps to the right are MUCH larger and 538 predicted 338 electoral votes for Biden with an 89% chance of winning.

RCP and trafalgar did a better job than 538.

What's wit your blood vendetta against 538? First,  Trafalgar predicted a Trump win.  You're arguing the spread is more important than the super bowl win.  Second,  RCP does zero analysis.  They are just aggregating and averaging. 

You see the bump in that picture on the right? You saw the prediction of 338 EVs? You saw numerous states listed as Biden 95% which were nail biters this election and last? 538 had zero clue what was going to happen this election.  Wittes is a joke for sending that tweet.

538 is an interesting outfit that does publish good articles, but their ability to understand the American electorate since trump took the escalator ride from hell is garbage and feeds into trumps fake news narrative.

If you call a state 95% and then win the state by one vote,  you were right. 

Their job was to characterize the election. Their job was to distinguish for us the good polls vs the bad ones. They were wrong. Again. On a catastrophic level. They could have kept a few thousand voters home in key states.

Let’s just be civil and agree to disagree. I’ll be careful to refrain from replying to your supportive 538 comments, if any.

tbergs

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

MayDay10 said:

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323991891453632512

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323993051073794053

What a joke. The four bumps to the right are MUCH larger and 538 predicted 338 electoral votes for Biden with an 89% chance of winning.

RCP and trafalgar did a better job than 538.

What's wit your blood vendetta against 538? First,  Trafalgar predicted a Trump win.  You're arguing the spread is more important than the super bowl win.  Second,  RCP does zero analysis.  They are just aggregating and averaging. 

You see the bump in that picture on the right? You saw the prediction of 338 EVs? You saw numerous states listed as Biden 95% which were nail biters this election and last? 538 had zero clue what was going to happen this election.  Wittes is a joke for sending that tweet.

538 is an interesting outfit that does publish good articles, but their ability to understand the American electorate since trump took the escalator ride from hell is garbage and feeds into trumps fake news narrative.

If you call a state 95% and then win the state by one vote,  you were right. 

Their job was to characterize the election. Their job was to distinguish for us the good polls vs the bad ones. They were wrong. Again. On a catastrophic level. They could have kept a few thousand voters home in key states.

Let’s just be civil and agree to disagree. I’ll be careful to refrain from replying to your supportive 538 comments, if any.

If people didn't learn anything from staying home in '16, or any other election, than that's on them. Personally, I don't know of anyone who looked at the polls and thought it was in the bag.

EdsonNascimento

EDIT: Original post was unrelated and in wrong thread. I will repost that in the proper one.  

I will just say - Nate Silver and 538 is dead.  Picking the winner when you're a statistical modeler but being off by 15% is not a win. I mean without doing research, the most likely outcome of this election was Biden winning.  An infant could have done that.

JimmyV

So the polls were wrong but what can the exit polls tell us about why the polls were wrong...

Rinse and repeat

mrussel1

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

MayDay10 said:

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323991891453632512

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323993051073794053

What a joke. The four bumps to the right are MUCH larger and 538 predicted 338 electoral votes for Biden with an 89% chance of winning.

RCP and trafalgar did a better job than 538.

What's wit your blood vendetta against 538? First,  Trafalgar predicted a Trump win.  You're arguing the spread is more important than the super bowl win.  Second,  RCP does zero analysis.  They are just aggregating and averaging. 

You see the bump in that picture on the right? You saw the prediction of 338 EVs? You saw numerous states listed as Biden 95% which were nail biters this election and last? 538 had zero clue what was going to happen this election.  Wittes is a joke for sending that tweet.

538 is an interesting outfit that does publish good articles, but their ability to understand the American electorate since trump took the escalator ride from hell is garbage and feeds into trumps fake news narrative.

If you call a state 95% and then win the state by one vote,  you were right. 

Their job was to characterize the election. Their job was to distinguish for us the good polls vs the bad ones. They were wrong. Again. On a catastrophic level. They could have kept a few thousand voters home in key states.

Let’s just be civil and agree to disagree. I’ll be careful to refrain from replying to your supportive 538 comments, if any.

I don't think I'm being uncivil.  Also I'm neither supportive or critical of him.  He's a modeler.  I started my career modeling credit risk.  The shit is hard and can send you in a million different directions.  Sometimes you feel like you're wrong as often as you are right, but what you're trying to do is mitigate the margins of your errors.  I think Nate's job is even harder than normal modeling because he's using source data that may be corrupted before he even touches it, which is what he's trying to adjust.  It's just an interesting website to me, not an actual crystal ball.

static111

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

MayDay10 said:

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323991891453632512

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323993051073794053

What a joke. The four bumps to the right are MUCH larger and 538 predicted 338 electoral votes for Biden with an 89% chance of winning.

RCP and trafalgar did a better job than 538.

What's wit your blood vendetta against 538? First,  Trafalgar predicted a Trump win.  You're arguing the spread is more important than the super bowl win.  Second,  RCP does zero analysis.  They are just aggregating and averaging. 

You see the bump in that picture on the right? You saw the prediction of 338 EVs? You saw numerous states listed as Biden 95% which were nail biters this election and last? 538 had zero clue what was going to happen this election.  Wittes is a joke for sending that tweet.

538 is an interesting outfit that does publish good articles, but their ability to understand the American electorate since trump took the escalator ride from hell is garbage and feeds into trumps fake news narrative.

If you call a state 95% and then win the state by one vote,  you were right. 

Their job was to characterize the election. Their job was to distinguish for us the good polls vs the bad ones. They were wrong. Again. On a catastrophic level. They could have kept a few thousand voters home in key states.

Let’s just be civil and agree to disagree. I’ll be careful to refrain from replying to your supportive 538 comments, if any.

I don't think I'm being uncivil.  Also I'm neither supportive or critical of him.  He's a modeler.  I started my career modeling credit risk.  The shit is hard and can send you in a million different directions.  Sometimes you feel like you're wrong as often as you are right, but what you're trying to do is mitigate the margins of your errors.  I think Nate's job is even harder than normal modeling because he's using source data that may be corrupted before he even touches it, which is what he's trying to adjust.  It's just an interesting website to me, not an actual crystal ball.

I think this was the biggest problem.  I also think Trump supporters lied to pollsters  to “own the libs”.

Poncier

JimmyV said:

So the polls were wrong but what can the exit polls tell us about why the polls were wrong...

Rinse and repeat

Ha!
Yes let's take polls on what is wrong with polls.

Gern Blansten

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

MayDay10 said:

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323991891453632512

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323993051073794053

What a joke. The four bumps to the right are MUCH larger and 538 predicted 338 electoral votes for Biden with an 89% chance of winning.

RCP and trafalgar did a better job than 538.

What's wit your blood vendetta against 538? First,  Trafalgar predicted a Trump win.  You're arguing the spread is more important than the super bowl win.  Second,  RCP does zero analysis.  They are just aggregating and averaging. 

You see the bump in that picture on the right? You saw the prediction of 338 EVs? You saw numerous states listed as Biden 95% which were nail biters this election and last? 538 had zero clue what was going to happen this election.  Wittes is a joke for sending that tweet.

538 is an interesting outfit that does publish good articles, but their ability to understand the American electorate since trump took the escalator ride from hell is garbage and feeds into trumps fake news narrative.

If you call a state 95% and then win the state by one vote,  you were right. 

Their job was to characterize the election. Their job was to distinguish for us the good polls vs the bad ones. They were wrong. Again. On a catastrophic level. They could have kept a few thousand voters home in key states.

Let’s just be civil and agree to disagree. I’ll be careful to refrain from replying to your supportive 538 comments, if any.

Your beef seems to be with the pollsters rather than 538...they just report the polls

Gern Blansten

EdsonNascimento said:

EDIT: Original post was unrelated and in wrong thread. I will repost that in the proper one.  

I will just say - Nate Silver and 538 is dead.  Picking the winner when you're a statistical modeler but being off by 15% is not a win. I mean without doing research, the most likely outcome of this election was Biden winning.  An infant could have done that.

I think most of us know that it is just information.  You act like he has some obligation to be exactly right.  

538 will still exist and you will still be a squeaky voice on a message board for many years to come.

Lerxst1992

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

MayDay10 said:

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323991891453632512

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323993051073794053

What a joke. The four bumps to the right are MUCH larger and 538 predicted 338 electoral votes for Biden with an 89% chance of winning.

RCP and trafalgar did a better job than 538.

What's wit your blood vendetta against 538? First,  Trafalgar predicted a Trump win.  You're arguing the spread is more important than the super bowl win.  Second,  RCP does zero analysis.  They are just aggregating and averaging. 

You see the bump in that picture on the right? You saw the prediction of 338 EVs? You saw numerous states listed as Biden 95% which were nail biters this election and last? 538 had zero clue what was going to happen this election.  Wittes is a joke for sending that tweet.

538 is an interesting outfit that does publish good articles, but their ability to understand the American electorate since trump took the escalator ride from hell is garbage and feeds into trumps fake news narrative.

If you call a state 95% and then win the state by one vote,  you were right. 

Their job was to characterize the election. Their job was to distinguish for us the good polls vs the bad ones. They were wrong. Again. On a catastrophic level. They could have kept a few thousand voters home in key states.

Let’s just be civil and agree to disagree. I’ll be careful to refrain from replying to your supportive 538 comments, if any.

I don't think I'm being uncivil.  Also I'm neither supportive or critical of him.  He's a modeler.  I started my career modeling credit risk.  The shit is hard and can send you in a million different directions.  Sometimes you feel like you're wrong as often as you are right, but what you're trying to do is mitigate the margins of your errors.  I think Nate's job is even harder than normal modeling because he's using source data that may be corrupted before he even touches it, which is what he's trying to adjust.  It's just an interesting website to me, not an actual crystal ball.

I did not intend to imply you were being uncivil, sorry about that. I think pollsters and modelers need to look at results on a county by county level. Stop with the hundreds of polls each week and look how people vote based on mileage from urban centers and how the historic lean of the state is. Make each poll organic. Put more hard work into it.

 This election was extremely similar to 2016 which made sense since Labor Day as trump was winning his covid is BS argument, which told us all we needed to know about insane rural and exurban voters. The economy is the most important issue. That is beyond nuts but that’s what the polls kept saying, neck and neck w covid.

This election was not that difficult. I could not even budge the discussion here (this is no way on you) that it was more of a 60/40 at best and not 86 to 90 for Biden 

And thats not mentioning how 538 completely missed on the senate and overestimated the dem control In the house by predicting the Dems would get 21 seats over the majority and will likely end up with only 11. Massive misses everywhere.