Nate Silver 538

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

MayDay10 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

Oh look. Another great PA poll for Biden. 

This. Is. Not. 2016. 

These new PA polls are astounding.  I.hope. they. are. spot. on.

The volume and size of the polls at the state level seems to far exceed what happened in 16.  Pollsters realize that Biden is 99% likely to win the popular vote, so they are training themselves on the state since that was the big miss.  

Weird how it was the big miss when that's how the election is won in the first place. 

Historically it was rare to win the popular but lose the electoral.  It's happening more frequently now.  But in the past, if you won 3MM more votes or were up by 3 or 4% points, you were locked in.  

Yes but that’s the reason I was so insistent the election in swing states was closer than the polls.

Its not coincidence it’s happening more, especially with trump. He micro targets by location, by message and by key demo, all on a level that no one has done before. That’s why I am concerned about swing state polls. He is now cooking up microtargeted messaging for the big T of PA. Hopefully these new polls prove me wrong.

All candidates do that. Difference for Trump in '16 was the assistance of Russia and the leaked DNC docs and how they targeted certain states with that material. 

Two years later, when telling his supporters to vote as if he was on the ballot, he just tried to jam the Caravan down our throats. It didn't work. This year the Law and Order stuff seems like Caravan 2.0 and, so far (with 3+ months of polling data to support) it has not worked as well. 

He resonated with that key demo and only that demo unlike any candidate I've seen, because it was like a dog whistle, only they were moved by him and most of us didn't see it.

Unlike a Reagan for example, where his abilities were widely viewed.

The targeting on tRump's end was done by Parscale wasn't it?  

As someone mentioned,  alot of it was assisted by Russia.

Bottom line, they are the best at it and rural and exurban America are packing rallies to be near their beloved icon 

He needs more than those dopes though. Last night did more harm than good. I would be surprised if Biden's lead did not expand. 

Biden or Lincoln Proj should run ads of trump arguing endlessly with the moderator. It was disgusting to watch.

The risk is trump drags Biden down into the mud and is able to suppress voter turnout. I would not discount that possibility impacting the electoral college.

I think Biden got just the right amount of muddy.

He sits there and takes the attacks he would be framed as a spineless weakling who cannot deal with adversaries.

He fought back just enough, but also held onto the decorum and kept trying to speak to the people and allowed Trump to run his clown show just enough.

Agreed...I wanted him to fight back a bit more but I think he just let him throw feces and dig a deeper hole.

This is a huge problem for Biden. I have seen countless “undecided” voters on tv talk about how they “both” ruined the debate.

If a voter is undecided after 5 years and 3 months of trump pulling this crap Since that escalator ride from hell, they are likely voting for trump and just need an excuse to do it. So every swing state poll, I’d give every % not in bidens column to trump. That’s why I think this is a closer race.

even on this left leaning forum, there are plenty of comments on the debate thread  saying they are “both” terrible or both senile. Without any evidence supporting their views.

if certain voters haven’t been disgusted by now by trump or even by last nights abhorrent behavior, they are probably voting trump.

Do we need to post the results of the snap polls of undecided voters?  There's not one that doesn't have Biden winning convincingly that I've seen. 

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

MayDay10 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

Oh look. Another great PA poll for Biden. 

This. Is. Not. 2016. 

These new PA polls are astounding.  I.hope. they. are. spot. on.

The volume and size of the polls at the state level seems to far exceed what happened in 16.  Pollsters realize that Biden is 99% likely to win the popular vote, so they are training themselves on the state since that was the big miss.  

Weird how it was the big miss when that's how the election is won in the first place. 

Historically it was rare to win the popular but lose the electoral.  It's happening more frequently now.  But in the past, if you won 3MM more votes or were up by 3 or 4% points, you were locked in.  

Yes but that’s the reason I was so insistent the election in swing states was closer than the polls.

Its not coincidence it’s happening more, especially with trump. He micro targets by location, by message and by key demo, all on a level that no one has done before. That’s why I am concerned about swing state polls. He is now cooking up microtargeted messaging for the big T of PA. Hopefully these new polls prove me wrong.

All candidates do that. Difference for Trump in '16 was the assistance of Russia and the leaked DNC docs and how they targeted certain states with that material. 

Two years later, when telling his supporters to vote as if he was on the ballot, he just tried to jam the Caravan down our throats. It didn't work. This year the Law and Order stuff seems like Caravan 2.0 and, so far (with 3+ months of polling data to support) it has not worked as well. 

He resonated with that key demo and only that demo unlike any candidate I've seen, because it was like a dog whistle, only they were moved by him and most of us didn't see it.

Unlike a Reagan for example, where his abilities were widely viewed.

The targeting on tRump's end was done by Parscale wasn't it?  

As someone mentioned,  alot of it was assisted by Russia.

Bottom line, they are the best at it and rural and exurban America are packing rallies to be near their beloved icon 

He needs more than those dopes though. Last night did more harm than good. I would be surprised if Biden's lead did not expand. 

Biden or Lincoln Proj should run ads of trump arguing endlessly with the moderator. It was disgusting to watch.

The risk is trump drags Biden down into the mud and is able to suppress voter turnout. I would not discount that possibility impacting the electoral college.

I think Biden got just the right amount of muddy.

He sits there and takes the attacks he would be framed as a spineless weakling who cannot deal with adversaries.

He fought back just enough, but also held onto the decorum and kept trying to speak to the people and allowed Trump to run his clown show just enough.

Agreed...I wanted him to fight back a bit more but I think he just let him throw feces and dig a deeper hole.

This is a huge problem for Biden. I have seen countless “undecided” voters on tv talk about how they “both” ruined the debate.

If a voter is undecided after 5 years and 3 months of trump pulling this crap Since that escalator ride from hell, they are likely voting for trump and just need an excuse to do it. So every swing state poll, I’d give every % not in bidens column to trump. That’s why I think this is a closer race.

even on this left leaning forum, there are plenty of comments on the debate thread  saying they are “both” terrible or both senile. Without any evidence supporting their views.

if certain voters haven’t been disgusted by now by trump or even by last nights abhorrent behavior, they are probably voting trump.

Do we need to post the results of the snap polls of undecided voters?  There's not one that doesn't have Biden winning convincingly that I've seen. 

Should we post the ones showing Clinton dominated her debates vs trump? I am sharing what I’ve heard countless times on tv since the debate ended 

Sure. She got about 3 million more votes and had a smaller lead than Biden did going into the debates. 

tbergs said:

No person could "debate" Trump because he doesn't debate. He has no desire to and never will. He enjoys spewing bullshit at his followers because they eat it up so he uses that same strategy during the debate since he knows it's to his advantage. While Biden may have talked around a few questions, which happens in every debate when a divisive topic is brought up, he did give straight answers on the majority of questions he was asked. Sort through all of the shouting, interruptions and personal attacks from Trump and you are left with no real answers on any question he was asked, which is why chaos is where he reigns.

And Biden is better dealing with people directly so the next debate, which is a townhall, favors him as well. 

If he answers affirmative the 'packing the court' question.... that becomes a flashpoint issue and a major rallying in all the close Senate races.  It changes the election.  

If he answers no, then ends up doing it anyway, then he is a liar.

So answering nothing.... then it getting completely overshadowed by nonsense is a huge victory.  If they get the White House and Senate, I would be dollars to donuts they are going to add justices.

Of course that is his plan but he can't say so because that is ammunition for the right. Totally agree with MayDay there. He's in a tough spot but I think he did the right thing. And, because he was debating a moronic chimp: it got overshadowed. Point for Joe there. 

Gern Blansten said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

Gern Blansten said:

Stacking the court will come up at the town hall or third debate though...bet on it.  They have an answer planned for sure.

what possible answer won't turn off potential moderate republicans?

"we'll do what we have to do within the bounds of the constitution to make sure women's right to health care and their own bodies stays protected"?

"I have no plan to do that and have not discussed it"

How about:

"Look, folks, number 1: We live in a country where now 5 of the 9 justices on the supreme court have been decided by presidents who have not received the majority of support of the American people. I don't know about you, but something about that just seems off to me. Number 2: as far as what we are going to do, look folks, I don't think what is happening right now is a fair comparison verses what happened in 2016. Barrack had almost a full year left in his term. To not even allow his nominee the consideration was a slap in the face to our democracy. Now, four years later, we have less than 6 weeks to go, millions of ballots have already been cast. Here's the deal: I think it would be prudent for those folks' voices to be heard instead of ramming this thing through. Chuck Schumer has said all options are on the table. I'm not sure what the answer is at this point, but since folks have already started to vote and given how close we are to the election, I think we should let the American people CONTINUE to decide who gets to make this enormous decision."

darwinstheory said:

But why not just lie? I mean, it would happen after election and this country has began to develop a herd immunity to lies and bullshit.

democrats are held to a higher standing on that. 

anyone who disagrees with that hasn't been paying attention for the last 5 years.