Nate Silver 538

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  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    static111 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    I predict a corona bump for trump once the first polls following his positive toward the positive begin coming in.
    really?  Is this one sarcasm?
    No I believe that there is a large portion of idiots that will be sympathetic to the asshole and give him a bump in the polls.  Just like when the HS bully breaks his arm or gets sick and everyone is so sympathetic etc
    Those idiots are already voting Trump.  I just don't see this swinging a vote the other way.  How does Trump getting something he totally mismanaged and diminished lead someone to believe he deserves a second chance?  If you're right, then I would throw up on the spot.  I think this hurts him, along with the debate.  At the end of the day I see his numbers falling more. 
    If it happens please take a picture.  I want to believe it doesn't happens, but Americans love to show faux sympathy.
    Biden sent a nice tweet about it this morning.  
  • static111
    static111 Posts: 5,073
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    I predict a corona bump for trump once the first polls following his positive toward the positive begin coming in.
    really?  Is this one sarcasm?
    No I believe that there is a large portion of idiots that will be sympathetic to the asshole and give him a bump in the polls.  Just like when the HS bully breaks his arm or gets sick and everyone is so sympathetic etc
    Those idiots are already voting Trump.  I just don't see this swinging a vote the other way.  How does Trump getting something he totally mismanaged and diminished lead someone to believe he deserves a second chance?  If you're right, then I would throw up on the spot.  I think this hurts him, along with the debate.  At the end of the day I see his numbers falling more. 
    If it happens please take a picture.  I want to believe it doesn't happens, but Americans love to show faux sympathy.
    Biden sent a nice tweet about it this morning.  
    The thing is Biden seems like a genuine enough guy that he probably actually means it.  If I was in his position I'd be I told you soing my way to the ballot box.
    Scio me nihil scire

    There are no kings inside the gates of eden
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,594
    Sympathy will be short lived for Trump, just as it was for Boris Johnson:


    www.myspace.com
  • HughFreakingDillon
    HughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 39,473
    static111 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    I predict a corona bump for trump once the first polls following his positive toward the positive begin coming in.
    really?  Is this one sarcasm?
    No I believe that there is a large portion of idiots that will be sympathetic to the asshole and give him a bump in the polls.  Just like when the HS bully breaks his arm or gets sick and everyone is so sympathetic etc
    Those idiots are already voting Trump.  I just don't see this swinging a vote the other way.  How does Trump getting something he totally mismanaged and diminished lead someone to believe he deserves a second chance?  If you're right, then I would throw up on the spot.  I think this hurts him, along with the debate.  At the end of the day I see his numbers falling more. 
    If it happens please take a picture.  I want to believe it doesn't happens, but Americans love to show faux sympathy.
    Biden sent a nice tweet about it this morning.  
    The thing is Biden seems like a genuine enough guy that he probably actually means it.  If I was in his position I'd be I told you soing my way to the ballot box.
    exactly. even when they both came to the podiums on tuesday, did I hear correctly biden say "how ya doin' brother?" or something to that effect?
    By The Time They Figure Out What Went Wrong, We'll Be Sitting On A Beach, Earning Twenty Percent.




  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    The Juggler said:
    Sympathy will be short lived for Trump, just as it was for Boris Johnson:


    And Boris never diminished the issue or lied about it, so there's that too.
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,594
    edited October 2020
    mrussel1 said:
    The Juggler said:
    Sympathy will be short lived for Trump, just as it was for Boris Johnson:


    And Boris never diminished the issue or lied about it, so there's that too.
    Agreed. We have about 8 months of that bullshit over here. 
    www.myspace.com
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,124
    mrussel1 said:
    The Juggler said:
    Sympathy will be short lived for Trump, just as it was for Boris Johnson:


    And Boris never diminished the issue or lied about it, so there's that too.
    Brits don't have a whacked evangelical population prone to divine interference either.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,594
    Halifax2TheMax said:
    mrussel1 said:
    The Juggler said:
    Sympathy will be short lived for Trump, just as it was for Boris Johnson:


    And Boris never diminished the issue or lied about it, so there's that too.
    Brits don't have a whacked evangelical population prone to divine interference either.
    Those wackos are already voting for Trump no matter what though. 
    www.myspace.com
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,124
    The Juggler said:
    Halifax2TheMax said:
    mrussel1 said:
    The Juggler said:
    Sympathy will be short lived for Trump, just as it was for Boris Johnson:


    And Boris never diminished the issue or lied about it, so there's that too.
    Brits don't have a whacked evangelical population prone to divine interference either.
    Those wackos are already voting for Trump no matter what though. 
    The few who were undecided or were wavering. Gonna do what a good Christian does, defend their savior.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,594
    Halifax2TheMax said:
    The Juggler said:
    Halifax2TheMax said:
    mrussel1 said:
    The Juggler said:
    Sympathy will be short lived for Trump, just as it was for Boris Johnson:


    And Boris never diminished the issue or lied about it, so there's that too.
    Brits don't have a whacked evangelical population prone to divine interference either.
    Those wackos are already voting for Trump no matter what though. 
    The few who were undecided or were wavering. Gonna do what a good Christian does, defend their savior.
    Trust me, there are not many wacko evangelicals who are undecided. 
    www.myspace.com
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,853
    Halifax2TheMax said:
    mrussel1 said:
    The Juggler said:
    Sympathy will be short lived for Trump, just as it was for Boris Johnson:


    And Boris never diminished the issue or lied about it, so there's that too.
    Brits don't have a whacked evangelical population prone to divine interference either.

    It is very common for a president to gain significant support during a crisis. This is likely that situation.

    This is an opportunity for biden to assume the presidential role and provide support for his opponent. Biden needs to hold a press conference today. 

    Get in front of the cameras and reassure the American people. I'd start off with something like although we've had a very difficult debate this week the president has generally good health and in most cases people his situation do recover. Jill and I will be praying for Donald and his family every day.


    Most importantly Biden needs to hedge trumps recovery by raising expectations. Trump will most likely recover and will be saying, see no big deal. Biden needs to be optimistic, presidential and reassuring before that happens 

    Today is that day

  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Halifax2TheMax said:
    mrussel1 said:
    The Juggler said:
    Sympathy will be short lived for Trump, just as it was for Boris Johnson:


    And Boris never diminished the issue or lied about it, so there's that too.
    Brits don't have a whacked evangelical population prone to divine interference either.

    It is very common for a president to gain significant support during a crisis. This is likely that situation.

    This is an opportunity for biden to assume the presidential role and provide support for his opponent. Biden needs to hold a press conference today. 

    Get in front of the cameras and reassure the American people. I'd start off with something like although we've had a very difficult debate this week the president has generally good health and in most cases people his situation do recover. Jill and I will be praying for Donald and his family every day.


    Most importantly Biden needs to hedge trumps recovery by raising expectations. Trump will most likely recover and will be saying, see no big deal. Biden needs to be optimistic, presidential and reassuring before that happens 

    Today is that day

    That's a good strategy.
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,594
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Halifax2TheMax said:
    mrussel1 said:
    The Juggler said:
    Sympathy will be short lived for Trump, just as it was for Boris Johnson:


    And Boris never diminished the issue or lied about it, so there's that too.
    Brits don't have a whacked evangelical population prone to divine interference either.

    It is very common for a president to gain significant support during a crisis. This is likely that situation.

    This is an opportunity for biden to assume the presidential role and provide support for his opponent. Biden needs to hold a press conference today. 

    Get in front of the cameras and reassure the American people. I'd start off with something like although we've had a very difficult debate this week the president has generally good health and in most cases people his situation do recover. Jill and I will be praying for Donald and his family every day.


    Most importantly Biden needs to hedge trumps recovery by raising expectations. Trump will most likely recover and will be saying, see no big deal. Biden needs to be optimistic, presidential and reassuring before that happens 

    Today is that day

    Boom. He’s pretty much doing this right now
    www.myspace.com
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,853
    The Juggler said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Halifax2TheMax said:
    mrussel1 said:
    The Juggler said:
    Sympathy will be short lived for Trump, just as it was for Boris Johnson:


    And Boris never diminished the issue or lied about it, so there's that too.
    Brits don't have a whacked evangelical population prone to divine interference either.

    It is very common for a president to gain significant support during a crisis. This is likely that situation.

    This is an opportunity for biden to assume the presidential role and provide support for his opponent. Biden needs to hold a press conference today. 

    Get in front of the cameras and reassure the American people. I'd start off with something like although we've had a very difficult debate this week the president has generally good health and in most cases people his situation do recover. Jill and I will be praying for Donald and his family every day.


    Most importantly Biden needs to hedge trumps recovery by raising expectations. Trump will most likely recover and will be saying, see no big deal. Biden needs to be optimistic, presidential and reassuring before that happens 

    Today is that day

    Boom. He’s pretty much doing this right now

    Yeah. He is not Hilary and this is not 2016
     (I hope  I hope I hope)

    He should give pressers every day.
  • darwinstheory
    darwinstheory LaPorte, IN Posts: 7,361
    A noticeable slide in Ohio.
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • dignin
    dignin Posts: 9,478
    Post-debate polls: Biden up by 5 in Florida, 7 in Pennsylvania

    Trump's debate performance did him no favors, the New York Times/Siena College surveys show.



    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/03/polls-biden-leads-trump-in-florida-pennsylvania-after-debate-425843
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,124
    dignin said:
    Post-debate polls: Biden up by 5 in Florida, 7 in Pennsylvania

    Trump's debate performance did him no favors, the New York Times/Siena College surveys show.



    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/03/polls-biden-leads-trump-in-florida-pennsylvania-after-debate-425843
    Hence the current drama.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,853
    Halifax2TheMax said:
    dignin said:
    Post-debate polls: Biden up by 5 in Florida, 7 in Pennsylvania

    Trump's debate performance did him no favors, the New York Times/Siena College surveys show.



    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/03/polls-biden-leads-trump-in-florida-pennsylvania-after-debate-425843
    Hence the current drama.


    The more I take a look at PA 2016 polling, the more I think Nate is out of his mind calling it 80%.

    Take a close look at PA 2016 on RCP from Sept thru the first few days of Oct. Clinton was dominating, even more than Biden is now. She held solid leads thru most of Oct, then the last week or two, there were about five or so polls that had Clinton only up by 2. It tightened in a heartbeat.
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,124
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Halifax2TheMax said:
    dignin said:
    Post-debate polls: Biden up by 5 in Florida, 7 in Pennsylvania

    Trump's debate performance did him no favors, the New York Times/Siena College surveys show.



    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/03/polls-biden-leads-trump-in-florida-pennsylvania-after-debate-425843
    Hence the current drama.


    The more I take a look at PA 2016 polling, the more I think Nate is out of his mind calling it 80%.

    Take a close look at PA 2016 on RCP from Sept thru the first few days of Oct. Clinton was dominating, even more than Biden is now. She held solid leads thru most of Oct, then the last week or two, there were about five or so polls that had Clinton only up by 2. It tightened in a heartbeat.
    The voice of reassurance. Yea, because both sides are the same and 2016 is the same as now. You’re pushing hard for the re-election of a certain outcome.

    How are you voting?
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,853
    Halifax2TheMax said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Halifax2TheMax said:
    dignin said:
    Post-debate polls: Biden up by 5 in Florida, 7 in Pennsylvania

    Trump's debate performance did him no favors, the New York Times/Siena College surveys show.



    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/03/polls-biden-leads-trump-in-florida-pennsylvania-after-debate-425843
    Hence the current drama.


    The more I take a look at PA 2016 polling, the more I think Nate is out of his mind calling it 80%.

    Take a close look at PA 2016 on RCP from Sept thru the first few days of Oct. Clinton was dominating, even more than Biden is now. She held solid leads thru most of Oct, then the last week or two, there were about five or so polls that had Clinton only up by 2. It tightened in a heartbeat.
    The voice of reassurance. Yea, because both sides are the same and 2016 is the same as now. You’re pushing hard for the re-election of a certain outcome.

    How are you voting?

    I watched 2016 carefully and saw the outcome, and saw how everybody got played. Trumps passionate following among NCWs is very concerning, at least to me.

    Granted it’s a stretch he faked covid or got it on purpose to change the dynamic of the election, but one has to wonder on Thursday if trumps internal polling showed the same as NBC/WSJ just released poll:


    ” President Trump is drawing his weakest voter support of the year in his re-election race following Tuesday’s contentious debate with former Vice President Joe Biden, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.

    Mr. Biden, the Democratic nominee, leads the president, 53% to 39%, among registered voters in the new poll, which was conducted in the two days following the debate but before news emerged that Mr. Trump had tested positive for Covid-19. Mr. Biden’s 14-point lead compares with an 8-point advantage last month and 11 points in July, which was his largest of the campaign at that time.

    The survey finds something rare in Journal/NBC News polling: evidence that an individual news event—the debate—is having a material effect on Mr. Trump’s political standing, at least for now. Significant events in the past, such as Mr. Trump’s impeachment by the House and acquittal by the Senate, had only hardened views of the president, not shifted them.”



    Had his internal polling showed this, I’d put nothing past that man to change the election dynamic 

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