Nate Silver 538

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  • And for what it's worth, Sinema is bisexual. I see your point, but semantics and what not. 
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,073
    edited October 2020
    Isn't that like 45 minutes from the Phoenix metro area? All metros in AZ are increasing/expanding and the demos are tilting blue. Again, I'd be slightly surprised if it doesn't go blue, but in another ten years it should be expected.
  • Isn't that like 45 minutes from the Phoenix metro area? All metros in AZ are increasing/expanding and the demos are tilting blue. Again, I'd be slightly surprised if it doesn't go blue, but in another ten years it should be expected.
    Phoenix metro area is almost 15000 square miles that encompasses all of the surrounding "towns". I technically live in Phoenix city limits. 20 minutes from downtown with traffic. It's all connected. You wouldn't know you went from one place to the next if there weren't signs. I also work all over the valley. Maricopa county has gone red in every presidential election since 1948 I think. I will be incredibly surprised if it goes blue. Again, based on what I'm seeing in my everyday life and the people I talk to. It's actually sad. Feels like a cult. 
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,822
    Isn't that like 45 minutes from the Phoenix metro area? All metros in AZ are increasing/expanding and the demos are tilting blue. Again, I'd be slightly surprised if it doesn't go blue, but in another ten years it should be expected.
    Phoenix metro area is almost 15000 square miles that encompasses all of the surrounding "towns". I technically live in Phoenix city limits. 20 minutes from downtown with traffic. It's all connected. You wouldn't know you went from one place to the next if there weren't signs. I also work all over the valley. Maricopa county has gone red in every presidential election since 1948 I think. I will be incredibly surprised if it goes blue. Again, based on what I'm seeing in my everyday life and the people I talk to. It's actually sad. Feels like a cult. 
    Maricopa did go blue for Sinema though,  if I'm not mistaken.  Winning the county wins the state 
  • WhatYouTaughtMeWhatYouTaughtMe Posts: 4,957
    edited October 2020
    mrussel1 said:
    Isn't that like 45 minutes from the Phoenix metro area? All metros in AZ are increasing/expanding and the demos are tilting blue. Again, I'd be slightly surprised if it doesn't go blue, but in another ten years it should be expected.
    Phoenix metro area is almost 15000 square miles that encompasses all of the surrounding "towns". I technically live in Phoenix city limits. 20 minutes from downtown with traffic. It's all connected. You wouldn't know you went from one place to the next if there weren't signs. I also work all over the valley. Maricopa county has gone red in every presidential election since 1948 I think. I will be incredibly surprised if it goes blue. Again, based on what I'm seeing in my everyday life and the people I talk to. It's actually sad. Feels like a cult. 
    Maricopa did go blue for Sinema though,  if I'm not mistaken.  Winning the county wins the state 
    Almost certainly. Although Clinton did win the state without it in 1996. So maybe I should be hopeful. Sinema's senate campaign was a non presidential year. Do you know any democrats voting for Trump? That's the part I can't wrap my head around. I don't see the support for Biden out here, but Kelly is stomping McNally. This shit confuses me. I'm just talking in my everyday life. Things that are tangible in my life lead me to believe Trump will win AZ. Maybe they are just more outspoken? I find Trump supporters are like vegans, in the sense they can't wait to tell you about it without any reason. 
    Post edited by WhatYouTaughtMe on
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,822
    mrussel1 said:
    Isn't that like 45 minutes from the Phoenix metro area? All metros in AZ are increasing/expanding and the demos are tilting blue. Again, I'd be slightly surprised if it doesn't go blue, but in another ten years it should be expected.
    Phoenix metro area is almost 15000 square miles that encompasses all of the surrounding "towns". I technically live in Phoenix city limits. 20 minutes from downtown with traffic. It's all connected. You wouldn't know you went from one place to the next if there weren't signs. I also work all over the valley. Maricopa county has gone red in every presidential election since 1948 I think. I will be incredibly surprised if it goes blue. Again, based on what I'm seeing in my everyday life and the people I talk to. It's actually sad. Feels like a cult. 
    Maricopa did go blue for Sinema though,  if I'm not mistaken.  Winning the county wins the state 
    Almost certainly. Although Clinton did win the state without it in 1996. So maybe I should be hopeful. Sinema's senate campaign was a non presidential year. Do you know any democrats voting for Trump? That's the part I can't wrap my head around. I don't see the support for Biden out here, but Kelly is stomping McNally. This shit confuses me. I'm just talking in my everyday life. Things that are tangible in my life lead me to believe Trump will win AZ. Maybe they are just more outspoken? I find Trump supporters are like vegans, in the sense they can't wait to tell you about it without any reason. 
    Yeah I think you hit it on the head.  Trump has his core be and they are loud as hell.  Democrats and moderates are simply not the same kind of people.  We had a lot of discussion here about the alleged shy Trump ssupporters, but many of us don't think they exist.  Now there could still be issues with demographic adjustments to the polls.  We shall see.  But with the size lead Biden has,  that would have to be a massive error to flip the script 
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,822
    mrussel1 said:
    Isn't that like 45 minutes from the Phoenix metro area? All metros in AZ are increasing/expanding and the demos are tilting blue. Again, I'd be slightly surprised if it doesn't go blue, but in another ten years it should be expected.
    Phoenix metro area is almost 15000 square miles that encompasses all of the surrounding "towns". I technically live in Phoenix city limits. 20 minutes from downtown with traffic. It's all connected. You wouldn't know you went from one place to the next if there weren't signs. I also work all over the valley. Maricopa county has gone red in every presidential election since 1948 I think. I will be incredibly surprised if it goes blue. Again, based on what I'm seeing in my everyday life and the people I talk to. It's actually sad. Feels like a cult. 
    Maricopa did go blue for Sinema though,  if I'm not mistaken.  Winning the county wins the state 
    Almost certainly. Although Clinton did win the state without it in 1996. So maybe I should be hopeful. Sinema's senate campaign was a non presidential year. Do you know any democrats voting for Trump? That's the part I can't wrap my head around. I don't see the support for Biden out here, but Kelly is stomping McNally. This shit confuses me. I'm just talking in my everyday life. Things that are tangible in my life lead me to believe Trump will win AZ. Maybe they are just more outspoken? I find Trump supporters are like vegans, in the sense they can't wait to tell you about it without any reason. 
    A timely article that may give you hope..  https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/11/republicans-democrats-arizona-blue-428535
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 6,749
    mrussel1 said:
    Isn't that like 45 minutes from the Phoenix metro area? All metros in AZ are increasing/expanding and the demos are tilting blue. Again, I'd be slightly surprised if it doesn't go blue, but in another ten years it should be expected.
    Phoenix metro area is almost 15000 square miles that encompasses all of the surrounding "towns". I technically live in Phoenix city limits. 20 minutes from downtown with traffic. It's all connected. You wouldn't know you went from one place to the next if there weren't signs. I also work all over the valley. Maricopa county has gone red in every presidential election since 1948 I think. I will be incredibly surprised if it goes blue. Again, based on what I'm seeing in my everyday life and the people I talk to. It's actually sad. Feels like a cult. 
    Maricopa did go blue for Sinema though,  if I'm not mistaken.  Winning the county wins the state 
    Almost certainly. Although Clinton did win the state without it in 1996. So maybe I should be hopeful. Sinema's senate campaign was a non presidential year. Do you know any democrats voting for Trump? That's the part I can't wrap my head around. I don't see the support for Biden out here, but Kelly is stomping McNally. This shit confuses me. I'm just talking in my everyday life. Things that are tangible in my life lead me to believe Trump will win AZ. Maybe they are just more outspoken? I find Trump supporters are like vegans, in the sense they can't wait to tell you about it without any reason. 

    It’s interesting hearing your observations from AZ, thanks for sharing. I’ve been a steady voice against the polling data on this thread. I do think Biden is ahead, but 538 predicting an 85% chance Biden wins IMO is insane. 

    2 points about AZ. If Biden wins your state, it will be a comfortable win for him nationwide and we will not have to sweat out the court and constitutional challenges from trump. The democrats will have turned a solid red state into a solidly leaning blue state. Trump will need to walk away and we will be done with him, for at least 4 years.

    Second, about signs and flags, trump promotes it and also promotes us against them mentality. He is nasty towards democrats. He says the only way democrats win is if we cheat. He generates hatred from his supporters.

    So do democrats want their homes and cars exposed to these insane, rabid votes? I like many I know, want badly for  trump to lose, and are willing to vote in person to vote him out, but I do not want to expose my personal property to a rabid and insane trump fan base. I do not want a target on my property, especially one painted by the President of the United States. That’s a profound statement, and believe explains the lack of Biden signs.



    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/10/joe-biden-and-kamala-harris-hay-bale-display-set-fire/5954953002/





  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,822
    mrussel1 said:
    Isn't that like 45 minutes from the Phoenix metro area? All metros in AZ are increasing/expanding and the demos are tilting blue. Again, I'd be slightly surprised if it doesn't go blue, but in another ten years it should be expected.
    Phoenix metro area is almost 15000 square miles that encompasses all of the surrounding "towns". I technically live in Phoenix city limits. 20 minutes from downtown with traffic. It's all connected. You wouldn't know you went from one place to the next if there weren't signs. I also work all over the valley. Maricopa county has gone red in every presidential election since 1948 I think. I will be incredibly surprised if it goes blue. Again, based on what I'm seeing in my everyday life and the people I talk to. It's actually sad. Feels like a cult. 
    Maricopa did go blue for Sinema though,  if I'm not mistaken.  Winning the county wins the state 
    Almost certainly. Although Clinton did win the state without it in 1996. So maybe I should be hopeful. Sinema's senate campaign was a non presidential year. Do you know any democrats voting for Trump? That's the part I can't wrap my head around. I don't see the support for Biden out here, but Kelly is stomping McNally. This shit confuses me. I'm just talking in my everyday life. Things that are tangible in my life lead me to believe Trump will win AZ. Maybe they are just more outspoken? I find Trump supporters are like vegans, in the sense they can't wait to tell you about it without any reason. 

    It’s interesting hearing your observations from AZ, thanks for sharing. I’ve been a steady voice against the polling data on this thread. I do think Biden is ahead, but 538 predicting an 85% chance Biden wins IMO is insane. 

    2 points about AZ. If Biden wins your state, it will be a comfortable win for him nationwide and we will not have to sweat out the court and constitutional challenges from trump. The democrats will have turned a solid red state into a solidly leaning blue state. Trump will need to walk away and we will be done with him, for at least 4 years.

    Second, about signs and flags, trump promotes it and also promotes us against them mentality. He is nasty towards democrats. He says the only way democrats win is if we cheat. He generates hatred from his supporters.

    So do democrats want their homes and cars exposed to these insane, rabid votes? I like many I know, want badly for  trump to lose, and are willing to vote in person to vote him out, but I do not want to expose my personal property to a rabid and insane trump fan base. I do not want a target on my property, especially one painted by the President of the United States. That’s a profound statement, and believe explains the lack of Biden signs.



    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/10/joe-biden-and-kamala-harris-hay-bale-display-set-fire/5954953002/





    I saw something on 538 that if Biden wins PA, he has a 96% chance to win.  For Trump, it’s 85%.  So everything is hinging there and Biden’s consistent lead in PA leads to the overall number you referenced.
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 20,661
    Interesting that PA and WI have switched on 538s winding path chart.  PA has been his tipping point state for weeks and now it is WI
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • Thanks for the input. I clearly don't know shit about this stuff. I hope I'm wrong. I really do. Thanks for providing me with a little hope. 
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,073
    It's flat out turnout. If turnout is relatively low = R win, anything else and it's Biden's.
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 20,661
    It's flat out turnout. If turnout is relatively low = R win, anything else and it's Biden's.
    yep...and turnout looks massive
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • It's flat out turnout. If turnout is relatively low = R win, anything else and it's Biden's.
    yep...and turnout looks massive
    7 million ballots cast thus far.
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  • Speaking of which, did you see where Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat’s SCOTUS nominee worked protecting repub mail in ballots? Like making sure they were counted? Couldn’t be a more obvious appointment. 
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  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,073
    So I've been really getting into PredictIt's site. Lots of easy money to make if people have the cash to put down. I maxed out on Dems winning the House, Biden winning the popular vote, Trump winning Alaska/Kansas/Missouri, Biden winning Michigan/Minnesota/Nevada. The House and popular vote at the least are worth putting the $850 max on each.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,822
    So I've been really getting into PredictIt's site. Lots of easy money to make if people have the cash to put down. I maxed out on Dems winning the House, Biden winning the popular vote, Trump winning Alaska/Kansas/Missouri, Biden winning Michigan/Minnesota/Nevada. The House and popular vote at the least are worth putting the $850 max on each.
    Ha,  prop bets!  Who knew?
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,073
    mrussel1 said:
    So I've been really getting into PredictIt's site. Lots of easy money to make if people have the cash to put down. I maxed out on Dems winning the House, Biden winning the popular vote, Trump winning Alaska/Kansas/Missouri, Biden winning Michigan/Minnesota/Nevada. The House and popular vote at the least are worth putting the $850 max on each.
    Ha,  prop bets!  Who knew?
    It's fun! And free money.
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Posts: 49,032
    Interesting that PA and WI have switched on 538s winding path chart.  PA has been his tipping point state for weeks and now it is WI
    Seemed like it was only a matter of time.

    Wow, it's been a few days since checking the polls. I really really really don't want to let myself become overconfident but....
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  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 20,661
    Interesting that PA and WI have switched on 538s winding path chart.  PA has been his tipping point state for weeks and now it is WI
    Seemed like it was only a matter of time.

    Wow, it's been a few days since checking the polls. I really really really don't want to let myself become overconfident but....
    Yeah I get it...

    Interesting that Durham isn't going to release anything prior to the election.  That backfired for them completely even though we knew it was bullshit anyway.  
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 37,350
    i just hope people who haven't voted don't think "ah, he's going to win, i don't need to vote"
    "Oh Canada...you're beautiful when you're drunk"
    -EV  8/14/93




  • OnWis97OnWis97 St. Paul, MN Posts: 5,195
    edited October 2020
    I wonder whether 2016 (and, therefore, maybe even worse this time) is less about the inaccuracy of the polls and more about the sheer devotion to Trump.  For example, if a state says 51% Biden and 46% Trump, is it the case that 99.9% of the latter vote for Trump, while maybe 85% of the former bother to vote for Biden? (Made up numbers, but I think you get my point)
    1995 Milwaukee     1998 Alpine, Alpine     2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston     2004 Boston, Boston     2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty)     2011 Alpine, Alpine     
    2013 Wrigley     2014 St. Paul     2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley     2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley     2021 Asbury Park     2022 St Louis     2023 Austin, Austin
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,822
    OnWis97 said:
    I wonder whether 2016 (and, therefore, maybe even worse this time) is less about the inaccuracy of the polls and more about the sheer devotion to Trump.  For example, if a state says 51% Biden and 46% Trump, is it the case that 99.9% of the latter vote for Trump, while maybe 85% of the former bother to vote for Biden? (Made up numbers, but I think you get my point)
    That's why likely voters tends to be the more accurate measure.  I don't see a scenario where a LV says they are voting Biden and then 15% decide to flip. 
  • HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 37,350
    yeah, i'd imagine that if you told a pollster that you are voting, it's unlikely you don't. 
    "Oh Canada...you're beautiful when you're drunk"
    -EV  8/14/93




  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,822
    yeah, i'd imagine that if you told a pollster that you are voting, it's unlikely you don't. 
    They also asked if you voted in the mid terms, 2016, etc. to weed those people out. 
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Posts: 49,032
    i just hope people who haven't voted don't think "ah, he's going to win, i don't need to vote"
    After what happened in '16, I'd say that will be less of an issue now
    www.myspace.com
  • HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 37,350
    i just hope people who haven't voted don't think "ah, he's going to win, i don't need to vote"
    After what happened in '16, I'd say that will be less of an issue now
    in '16 there was no pandemic or threats of voter intimidation/violence. 
    "Oh Canada...you're beautiful when you're drunk"
    -EV  8/14/93




  • The JugglerThe Juggler Posts: 49,032
    i just hope people who haven't voted don't think "ah, he's going to win, i don't need to vote"
    After what happened in '16, I'd say that will be less of an issue now
    in '16 there was no pandemic or threats of voter intimidation/violence. 
    Well that would be a different reason for staying home than complacency though. 
    www.myspace.com
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,073
    edited October 2020
    Definitely people are capable of getting complacent right now. Can't take the foot off the gas, continue to step on the throat. Act like you're trailing by 2 points.
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Posts: 49,032
    Florida, Florida, Florida----as far as Joe getting the win on election night:

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/12/biden-trump-2020-election-night-428856
    www.myspace.com
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