Nate Silver 538

The Juggler

MayDay10 said:

The Juggler said:

80% odds of winning right now. Highest at any point this year. 13% higher than a month ago.

I was reading one of his columns the other day.

He basically said that the odds go down/up as the election approaches because some of it is based on potential movement.  For instance, Trump was 22% chance to win yesterday, but if the election was taking place yesterday, the probability of winning would be 9%.  So the clock is ticking out and each day is lost opportunity and it gets tougher.

The clock is absolutely ticking. And Trump ain't winning any news cycles any day soon...

Lerxst1992

The Juggler said:

MayDay10 said:

The Juggler said:

80% odds of winning right now. Highest at any point this year. 13% higher than a month ago.

I was reading one of his columns the other day.

He basically said that the odds go down/up as the election approaches because some of it is based on potential movement.  For instance, Trump was 22% chance to win yesterday, but if the election was taking place yesterday, the probability of winning would be 9%.  So the clock is ticking out and each day is lost opportunity and it gets tougher.

The clock is absolutely ticking. And Trump ain't winning any news cycles any day soon...

Thats right, as there is less and less time remaining and as people vote early, the odds get longer the lower polled candidate can come back.That was in the link I posted earlier.  Biden I want to believe! 

Winning the senate is also huge because the dems could make changes to structural laws such as adding House members to dilute the small states in the Electoral College and packing the Court. 

I am interested if there are any better ideas, but when Rs win they change rules like filibuster and voter ID laws. Dems need to be on same page.

HughFreakingDillon

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

MayDay10 said:

The Juggler said:

80% odds of winning right now. Highest at any point this year. 13% higher than a month ago.

I was reading one of his columns the other day.

He basically said that the odds go down/up as the election approaches because some of it is based on potential movement.  For instance, Trump was 22% chance to win yesterday, but if the election was taking place yesterday, the probability of winning would be 9%.  So the clock is ticking out and each day is lost opportunity and it gets tougher.

The clock is absolutely ticking. And Trump ain't winning any news cycles any day soon...

Thats right, as there is less and less time remaining and as people vote early, the odds get longer the lower polled candidate can come back.That was in the link I posted earlier.  Biden I want to believe! 

Winning the senate is also huge because the dems could make changes to structural laws such as adding House members to dilute the small states in the Electoral College and packing the Court. 

I am interested if there are any better ideas, but when Rs win they change rules like filibuster and voter ID laws. Dems need to be on same page.

i would like some to educate me on why voter ID is a bad thing. I mean, i can't vote without my government issued ID here in canada. it only seems to make sense. 

mrussel1

HughFreakingDillon said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

MayDay10 said:

The Juggler said:

80% odds of winning right now. Highest at any point this year. 13% higher than a month ago.

I was reading one of his columns the other day.

He basically said that the odds go down/up as the election approaches because some of it is based on potential movement.  For instance, Trump was 22% chance to win yesterday, but if the election was taking place yesterday, the probability of winning would be 9%.  So the clock is ticking out and each day is lost opportunity and it gets tougher.

The clock is absolutely ticking. And Trump ain't winning any news cycles any day soon...

Thats right, as there is less and less time remaining and as people vote early, the odds get longer the lower polled candidate can come back.That was in the link I posted earlier.  Biden I want to believe! 

Winning the senate is also huge because the dems could make changes to structural laws such as adding House members to dilute the small states in the Electoral College and packing the Court. 

I am interested if there are any better ideas, but when Rs win they change rules like filibuster and voter ID laws. Dems need to be on same page.

i would like some to educate me on why voter ID is a bad thing. I mean, i can't vote without my government issued ID here in canada. it only seems to make sense. 

Tehre is no requirement to carry identification in this country.  Therefore, anything that requires as such is considered a poll tax, which are illegal.  Over the centuries, poll taxes (money, ID, reading comprehension), etc. were used to suppress the legal votes of minorities. 

Lerxst1992

mrussel1 said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

MayDay10 said:

The Juggler said:

80% odds of winning right now. Highest at any point this year. 13% higher than a month ago.

I was reading one of his columns the other day.

He basically said that the odds go down/up as the election approaches because some of it is based on potential movement.  For instance, Trump was 22% chance to win yesterday, but if the election was taking place yesterday, the probability of winning would be 9%.  So the clock is ticking out and each day is lost opportunity and it gets tougher.

The clock is absolutely ticking. And Trump ain't winning any news cycles any day soon...

Thats right, as there is less and less time remaining and as people vote early, the odds get longer the lower polled candidate can come back.That was in the link I posted earlier.  Biden I want to believe! 

Winning the senate is also huge because the dems could make changes to structural laws such as adding House members to dilute the small states in the Electoral College and packing the Court. 

I am interested if there are any better ideas, but when Rs win they change rules like filibuster and voter ID laws. Dems need to be on same page.

i would like some to educate me on why voter ID is a bad thing. I mean, i can't vote without my government issued ID here in canada. it only seems to make sense. 

Tehre is no requirement to carry identification in this country.  Therefore, anything that requires as such is considered a poll tax, which are illegal.  Over the centuries, poll taxes (money, ID, reading comprehension), etc. were used to suppress the legal votes of minorities. 

Add to that the cost of obtaining the ID for the poor. A lot of these states have limited locations where IDs can be obtained.

So the poor need to take hours or a day off from work which is a massive poll tax for the poor.

Gern Blansten

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

MayDay10 said:

The Juggler said:

80% odds of winning right now. Highest at any point this year. 13% higher than a month ago.

I was reading one of his columns the other day.

He basically said that the odds go down/up as the election approaches because some of it is based on potential movement.  For instance, Trump was 22% chance to win yesterday, but if the election was taking place yesterday, the probability of winning would be 9%.  So the clock is ticking out and each day is lost opportunity and it gets tougher.

The clock is absolutely ticking. And Trump ain't winning any news cycles any day soon...

Thats right, as there is less and less time remaining and as people vote early, the odds get longer the lower polled candidate can come back.That was in the link I posted earlier.  Biden I want to believe! 

Winning the senate is also huge because the dems could make changes to structural laws such as adding House members to dilute the small states in the Electoral College and packing the Court. 

I am interested if there are any better ideas, but when Rs win they change rules like filibuster and voter ID laws. Dems need to be on same page.

i would like some to educate me on why voter ID is a bad thing. I mean, i can't vote without my government issued ID here in canada. it only seems to make sense. 

Tehre is no requirement to carry identification in this country.  Therefore, anything that requires as such is considered a poll tax, which are illegal.  Over the centuries, poll taxes (money, ID, reading comprehension), etc. were used to suppress the legal votes of minorities. 

Add to that the cost of obtaining the ID for the poor. A lot of these states have limited locations where IDs can be obtained.

So the poor need to take hours or a day off from work which is a massive poll tax for the poor.

Or elderly people that haven't driven for years.  

static111

I predict a corona bump for trump once the first polls following his positive toward the positive begin coming in.

Gern Blansten

It wasn't too long ago that OH turned blue....now OH is leaning more toward Biden than NC

mrussel1

static111 said:

I predict a corona bump for trump once the first polls following his positive toward the positive begin coming in.

really?  Is this one sarcasm?

OnWis97

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

I predict a corona bump for trump once the first polls following his positive toward the positive begin coming in.

really?  Is this one sarcasm?

I suppose he could be going for sympathy.  That would really be a hail mary, but if not for the fact that they are probably going to steal this thing out in the open, that would be where they are.

mrussel1

OnWis97 said:

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

I predict a corona bump for trump once the first polls following his positive toward the positive begin coming in.

really?  Is this one sarcasm?

I suppose he could be going for sympathy.  That would really be a hail mary, but if not for the fact that they are probably going to steal this thing out in the open, that would be where they are.

no, sympathy doesn't register.  This positive test shows weakness, I believe.  If Biden got it, imagine how he would exploit it. 

OnWis97

mrussel1 said:

OnWis97 said:

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

I predict a corona bump for trump once the first polls following his positive toward the positive begin coming in.

really?  Is this one sarcasm?

I suppose he could be going for sympathy.  That would really be a hail mary, but if not for the fact that they are probably going to steal this thing out in the open, that would be where they are.

no, sympathy doesn't register.  This positive test shows weakness, I believe.  If Biden got it, imagine how he would exploit it. 

That's where I fall, too.  He's so insecure that he cannot show weakness of any kind. That's enough to make me 95% certain this is legit.  The 5% doubt is that his handlers could be convincing him either that this is a good tactic or that "you DESTROYED him in that debate and having any more could only be bad."

Halifax2TheMax

OnWis97 said:

mrussel1 said:

OnWis97 said:

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

I predict a corona bump for trump once the first polls following his positive toward the positive begin coming in.

really?  Is this one sarcasm?

I suppose he could be going for sympathy.  That would really be a hail mary, but if not for the fact that they are probably going to steal this thing out in the open, that would be where they are.

no, sympathy doesn't register.  This positive test shows weakness, I believe.  If Biden got it, imagine how he would exploit it. 

That's where I fall, too.  He's so insecure that he cannot show weakness of any kind. That's enough to make me 95% certain this is legit.  The 5% doubt is that his handlers could be convincing him either that this is a good tactic or that "you DESTROYED him in that debate and having any more could only be bad."

Or those undecided evangelicals and maybe a few religious types that leaned Sleepy Woke Joe Basement Biden decide that Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat needs sympathy and prayers and you can't abandoned the POTUS in his "hour of need?" I'll believe it when they take Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat to Walter Reed for a "routine check up."

Don't forget, he's the "master showman." Think about it, he just knocked the white supremacy, Melania complaining about decorating for Christmas and being cold to caged children and the putin on the ritz election interference out of the news cycle. And, who knows what the rally attendances would have been in Wisconsin, in full blown pandemic outbreak (don't want images of small crowds), and avoiding a town hall debate where he'd get his clock cleaned? Oh, and 8 to 15 lies a day, every day, since the inaugural. 

static111

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

I predict a corona bump for trump once the first polls following his positive toward the positive begin coming in.

really?  Is this one sarcasm?

No I believe that there is a large portion of idiots that will be sympathetic to the asshole and give him a bump in the polls.  Just like when the HS bully breaks his arm or gets sick and everyone is so sympathetic etc

mrussel1

static111 said:

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

I predict a corona bump for trump once the first polls following his positive toward the positive begin coming in.

really?  Is this one sarcasm?

No I believe that there is a large portion of idiots that will be sympathetic to the asshole and give him a bump in the polls.  Just like when the HS bully breaks his arm or gets sick and everyone is so sympathetic etc

Those idiots are already voting Trump.  I just don't see this swinging a vote the other way.  How does Trump getting something he totally mismanaged and diminished lead someone to believe he deserves a second chance?  If you're right, then I would throw up on the spot.  I think this hurts him, along with the debate.  At the end of the day I see his numbers falling more. 

static111

mrussel1 said:

OnWis97 said:

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

I predict a corona bump for trump once the first polls following his positive toward the positive begin coming in.

really?  Is this one sarcasm?

I suppose he could be going for sympathy.  That would really be a hail mary, but if not for the fact that they are probably going to steal this thing out in the open, that would be where they are.

no, sympathy doesn't register.  This positive test shows weakness, I believe.  If Biden got it, imagine how he would exploit it. 

Well because of this we already aren't talking about the poor debate performance, the trashing of soldiers, the dog whistles, etc. He has effectively taken all of the focus on anything and directed it toward himself, if playing weakness helps him win I'm sure he is ok with that.  

 Everyone on this forum pays attention and all we are talking about is corona don...Average Americans are going to feel sympathy because that's what a "good person" does and Americans if nothing else are "good Persons"....The only reason I haven't put into words what most of us are thinking about the positive diagnosis is that I don't want to be timed out into read-only land.  Maybe I'm wrong, maybe not. let's look at the polls that come out in the next couple days.  I still predict a sympathy bump.

static111

Halifax2TheMax said:

OnWis97 said:

mrussel1 said:

OnWis97 said:

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

I predict a corona bump for trump once the first polls following his positive toward the positive begin coming in.

really?  Is this one sarcasm?

I suppose he could be going for sympathy.  That would really be a hail mary, but if not for the fact that they are probably going to steal this thing out in the open, that would be where they are.

no, sympathy doesn't register.  This positive test shows weakness, I believe.  If Biden got it, imagine how he would exploit it. 

That's where I fall, too.  He's so insecure that he cannot show weakness of any kind. That's enough to make me 95% certain this is legit.  The 5% doubt is that his handlers could be convincing him either that this is a good tactic or that "you DESTROYED him in that debate and having any more could only be bad."

Or those undecided evangelicals and maybe a few religious types that leaned Sleepy Woke Joe Basement Biden decide that Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat needs sympathy and prayers and you can't abandoned the POTUS in his "hour of need?" I'll believe it when they take Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat to Walter Reed for a "routine check up."

Don't forget, he's the "master showman." Think about it, he just knocked the white supremacy, Melania complaining about decorating for Christmas and being cold to caged children and the putin on the ritz election interference out of the news cycle. And, who knows what the rally attendances would have been in Wisconsin, in full blown pandemic outbreak (don't want images of small crowds), and avoiding a town hall debate where he'd get his clock cleaned? Oh, and 8 to 15 lies a day, every day, since the inaugural. 

100%

static111

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

I predict a corona bump for trump once the first polls following his positive toward the positive begin coming in.

really?  Is this one sarcasm?

No I believe that there is a large portion of idiots that will be sympathetic to the asshole and give him a bump in the polls.  Just like when the HS bully breaks his arm or gets sick and everyone is so sympathetic etc

Those idiots are already voting Trump.  I just don't see this swinging a vote the other way.  How does Trump getting something he totally mismanaged and diminished lead someone to believe he deserves a second chance?  If you're right, then I would throw up on the spot.  I think this hurts him, along with the debate.  At the end of the day I see his numbers falling more. 

If it happens please take a picture.  I want to believe it doesn't happens, but Americans love to show faux sympathy.

OnWis97

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

I predict a corona bump for trump once the first polls following his positive toward the positive begin coming in.

really?  Is this one sarcasm?

No I believe that there is a large portion of idiots that will be sympathetic to the asshole and give him a bump in the polls.  Just like when the HS bully breaks his arm or gets sick and everyone is so sympathetic etc

Those idiots are already voting Trump.  I just don't see this swinging a vote the other way.  How does Trump getting something he totally mismanaged and diminished lead someone to believe he deserves a second chance?  If you're right, then I would throw up on the spot.  I think this hurts him, along with the debate.  At the end of the day I see his numbers falling more. 

It'll be interesting to see because I could see it go either way. 

Halifax2TheMax

static111 said:

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

I predict a corona bump for trump once the first polls following his positive toward the positive begin coming in.

really?  Is this one sarcasm?

No I believe that there is a large portion of idiots that will be sympathetic to the asshole and give him a bump in the polls.  Just like when the HS bully breaks his arm or gets sick and everyone is so sympathetic etc

Those idiots are already voting Trump.  I just don't see this swinging a vote the other way.  How does Trump getting something he totally mismanaged and diminished lead someone to believe he deserves a second chance?  If you're right, then I would throw up on the spot.  I think this hurts him, along with the debate.  At the end of the day I see his numbers falling more. 

If it happens please take a picture.  I want to believe it doesn't happens, but Americans love to show faux sympathy.

And rally around the flag. What represents the flag more than the CIC, other than the actual military?