Isn't that like 45 minutes from the Phoenix metro area? All metros in AZ are increasing/expanding and the demos are tilting blue. Again, I'd be slightly surprised if it doesn't go blue, but in another ten years it should be expected.
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WhatYouTaughtMe
I have no idea what's going on right now! Posts: 4,957
Isn't that like 45 minutes from the Phoenix metro area? All metros in AZ are increasing/expanding and the demos are tilting blue. Again, I'd be slightly surprised if it doesn't go blue, but in another ten years it should be expected.
Phoenix metro area is almost 15000 square miles that encompasses all of the surrounding "towns". I technically live in Phoenix city limits. 20 minutes from downtown with traffic. It's all connected. You wouldn't know you went from one place to the next if there weren't signs. I also work all over the valley. Maricopa county has gone red in every presidential election since 1948 I think. I will be incredibly surprised if it goes blue. Again, based on what I'm seeing in my everyday life and the people I talk to. It's actually sad. Feels like a cult.
Isn't that like 45 minutes from the Phoenix metro area? All metros in AZ are increasing/expanding and the demos are tilting blue. Again, I'd be slightly surprised if it doesn't go blue, but in another ten years it should be expected.
Phoenix metro area is almost 15000 square miles that encompasses all of the surrounding "towns". I technically live in Phoenix city limits. 20 minutes from downtown with traffic. It's all connected. You wouldn't know you went from one place to the next if there weren't signs. I also work all over the valley. Maricopa county has gone red in every presidential election since 1948 I think. I will be incredibly surprised if it goes blue. Again, based on what I'm seeing in my everyday life and the people I talk to. It's actually sad. Feels like a cult.
Maricopa did go blue for Sinema though, if I'm not mistaken. Winning the county wins the state
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WhatYouTaughtMe
I have no idea what's going on right now! Posts: 4,957
Isn't that like 45 minutes from the Phoenix metro area? All metros in AZ are increasing/expanding and the demos are tilting blue. Again, I'd be slightly surprised if it doesn't go blue, but in another ten years it should be expected.
Phoenix metro area is almost 15000 square miles that encompasses all of the surrounding "towns". I technically live in Phoenix city limits. 20 minutes from downtown with traffic. It's all connected. You wouldn't know you went from one place to the next if there weren't signs. I also work all over the valley. Maricopa county has gone red in every presidential election since 1948 I think. I will be incredibly surprised if it goes blue. Again, based on what I'm seeing in my everyday life and the people I talk to. It's actually sad. Feels like a cult.
Maricopa did go blue for Sinema though, if I'm not mistaken. Winning the county wins the state
Almost certainly. Although Clinton did win the state without it in 1996. So maybe I should be hopeful. Sinema's senate campaign was a non presidential year. Do you know any democrats voting for Trump? That's the part I can't wrap my head around. I don't see the support for Biden out here, but Kelly is stomping McNally. This shit confuses me. I'm just talking in my everyday life. Things that are tangible in my life lead me to believe Trump will win AZ. Maybe they are just more outspoken? I find Trump supporters are like vegans, in the sense they can't wait to tell you about it without any reason.
Isn't that like 45 minutes from the Phoenix metro area? All metros in AZ are increasing/expanding and the demos are tilting blue. Again, I'd be slightly surprised if it doesn't go blue, but in another ten years it should be expected.
Phoenix metro area is almost 15000 square miles that encompasses all of the surrounding "towns". I technically live in Phoenix city limits. 20 minutes from downtown with traffic. It's all connected. You wouldn't know you went from one place to the next if there weren't signs. I also work all over the valley. Maricopa county has gone red in every presidential election since 1948 I think. I will be incredibly surprised if it goes blue. Again, based on what I'm seeing in my everyday life and the people I talk to. It's actually sad. Feels like a cult.
Maricopa did go blue for Sinema though, if I'm not mistaken. Winning the county wins the state
Almost certainly. Although Clinton did win the state without it in 1996. So maybe I should be hopeful. Sinema's senate campaign was a non presidential year. Do you know any democrats voting for Trump? That's the part I can't wrap my head around. I don't see the support for Biden out here, but Kelly is stomping McNally. This shit confuses me. I'm just talking in my everyday life. Things that are tangible in my life lead me to believe Trump will win AZ. Maybe they are just more outspoken? I find Trump supporters are like vegans, in the sense they can't wait to tell you about it without any reason.
Yeah I think you hit it on the head. Trump has his core be and they are loud as hell. Democrats and moderates are simply not the same kind of people. We had a lot of discussion here about the alleged shy Trump ssupporters, but many of us don't think they exist. Now there could still be issues with demographic adjustments to the polls. We shall see. But with the size lead Biden has, that would have to be a massive error to flip the script
Isn't that like 45 minutes from the Phoenix metro area? All metros in AZ are increasing/expanding and the demos are tilting blue. Again, I'd be slightly surprised if it doesn't go blue, but in another ten years it should be expected.
Phoenix metro area is almost 15000 square miles that encompasses all of the surrounding "towns". I technically live in Phoenix city limits. 20 minutes from downtown with traffic. It's all connected. You wouldn't know you went from one place to the next if there weren't signs. I also work all over the valley. Maricopa county has gone red in every presidential election since 1948 I think. I will be incredibly surprised if it goes blue. Again, based on what I'm seeing in my everyday life and the people I talk to. It's actually sad. Feels like a cult.
Maricopa did go blue for Sinema though, if I'm not mistaken. Winning the county wins the state
Almost certainly. Although Clinton did win the state without it in 1996. So maybe I should be hopeful. Sinema's senate campaign was a non presidential year. Do you know any democrats voting for Trump? That's the part I can't wrap my head around. I don't see the support for Biden out here, but Kelly is stomping McNally. This shit confuses me. I'm just talking in my everyday life. Things that are tangible in my life lead me to believe Trump will win AZ. Maybe they are just more outspoken? I find Trump supporters are like vegans, in the sense they can't wait to tell you about it without any reason.
Isn't that like 45 minutes from the Phoenix metro area? All metros in AZ are increasing/expanding and the demos are tilting blue. Again, I'd be slightly surprised if it doesn't go blue, but in another ten years it should be expected.
Phoenix metro area is almost 15000 square miles that encompasses all of the surrounding "towns". I technically live in Phoenix city limits. 20 minutes from downtown with traffic. It's all connected. You wouldn't know you went from one place to the next if there weren't signs. I also work all over the valley. Maricopa county has gone red in every presidential election since 1948 I think. I will be incredibly surprised if it goes blue. Again, based on what I'm seeing in my everyday life and the people I talk to. It's actually sad. Feels like a cult.
Maricopa did go blue for Sinema though, if I'm not mistaken. Winning the county wins the state
Almost certainly. Although Clinton did win the state without it in 1996. So maybe I should be hopeful. Sinema's senate campaign was a non presidential year. Do you know any democrats voting for Trump? That's the part I can't wrap my head around. I don't see the support for Biden out here, but Kelly is stomping McNally. This shit confuses me. I'm just talking in my everyday life. Things that are tangible in my life lead me to believe Trump will win AZ. Maybe they are just more outspoken? I find Trump supporters are like vegans, in the sense they can't wait to tell you about it without any reason.
It’s interesting hearing your observations from AZ, thanks for sharing. I’ve been a steady voice against the polling data on this thread. I do think Biden is ahead, but 538 predicting an 85% chance Biden wins IMO is insane.
2 points about AZ. If Biden wins your state, it will be a comfortable win for him nationwide and we will not have to sweat out the court and constitutional challenges from trump. The democrats will have turned a solid red state into a solidly leaning blue state. Trump will need to walk away and we will be done with him, for at least 4 years.
Second, about signs and flags, trump promotes it and also promotes us against them mentality. He is nasty towards democrats. He says the only way democrats win is if we cheat. He generates hatred from his supporters.
So do democrats want their homes and cars exposed to these insane, rabid votes? I like many I know, want badly for trump to lose, and are willing to vote in person to vote him out, but I do not want to expose my personal property to a rabid and insane trump fan base. I do not want a target on my property, especially one painted by the President of the United States. That’s a profound statement, and believe explains the lack of Biden signs.
Isn't that like 45 minutes from the Phoenix metro area? All metros in AZ are increasing/expanding and the demos are tilting blue. Again, I'd be slightly surprised if it doesn't go blue, but in another ten years it should be expected.
Phoenix metro area is almost 15000 square miles that encompasses all of the surrounding "towns". I technically live in Phoenix city limits. 20 minutes from downtown with traffic. It's all connected. You wouldn't know you went from one place to the next if there weren't signs. I also work all over the valley. Maricopa county has gone red in every presidential election since 1948 I think. I will be incredibly surprised if it goes blue. Again, based on what I'm seeing in my everyday life and the people I talk to. It's actually sad. Feels like a cult.
Maricopa did go blue for Sinema though, if I'm not mistaken. Winning the county wins the state
Almost certainly. Although Clinton did win the state without it in 1996. So maybe I should be hopeful. Sinema's senate campaign was a non presidential year. Do you know any democrats voting for Trump? That's the part I can't wrap my head around. I don't see the support for Biden out here, but Kelly is stomping McNally. This shit confuses me. I'm just talking in my everyday life. Things that are tangible in my life lead me to believe Trump will win AZ. Maybe they are just more outspoken? I find Trump supporters are like vegans, in the sense they can't wait to tell you about it without any reason.
It’s interesting hearing your observations from AZ, thanks for sharing. I’ve been a steady voice against the polling data on this thread. I do think Biden is ahead, but 538 predicting an 85% chance Biden wins IMO is insane.
2 points about AZ. If Biden wins your state, it will be a comfortable win for him nationwide and we will not have to sweat out the court and constitutional challenges from trump. The democrats will have turned a solid red state into a solidly leaning blue state. Trump will need to walk away and we will be done with him, for at least 4 years.
Second, about signs and flags, trump promotes it and also promotes us against them mentality. He is nasty towards democrats. He says the only way democrats win is if we cheat. He generates hatred from his supporters.
So do democrats want their homes and cars exposed to these insane, rabid votes? I like many I know, want badly for trump to lose, and are willing to vote in person to vote him out, but I do not want to expose my personal property to a rabid and insane trump fan base. I do not want a target on my property, especially one painted by the President of the United States. That’s a profound statement, and believe explains the lack of Biden signs.
I saw something on 538 that if Biden wins PA, he has a 96% chance to win. For Trump, it’s 85%. So everything is hinging there and Biden’s consistent lead in PA leads to the overall number you referenced.
Speaking of which, did you see where Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat’s SCOTUS nominee worked protecting repub mail in ballots? Like making sure they were counted? Couldn’t be a more obvious appointment.
So I've been really getting into PredictIt's site. Lots of easy money to make if people have the cash to put down. I maxed out on Dems winning the House, Biden winning the popular vote, Trump winning Alaska/Kansas/Missouri, Biden winning Michigan/Minnesota/Nevada. The House and popular vote at the least are worth putting the $850 max on each.
So I've been really getting into PredictIt's site. Lots of easy money to make if people have the cash to put down. I maxed out on Dems winning the House, Biden winning the popular vote, Trump winning Alaska/Kansas/Missouri, Biden winning Michigan/Minnesota/Nevada. The House and popular vote at the least are worth putting the $850 max on each.
So I've been really getting into PredictIt's site. Lots of easy money to make if people have the cash to put down. I maxed out on Dems winning the House, Biden winning the popular vote, Trump winning Alaska/Kansas/Missouri, Biden winning Michigan/Minnesota/Nevada. The House and popular vote at the least are worth putting the $850 max on each.
Ha, prop bets! Who knew?
It's fun! And free money.
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,337
Interesting that PA and WI have switched on 538s winding path chart. PA has been his tipping point state for weeks and now it is WI
Seemed like it was only a matter of time.
Wow, it's been a few days since checking the polls. I really really really don't want to let myself become overconfident but....
Yeah I get it...
Interesting that Durham isn't going to release anything prior to the election. That backfired for them completely even though we knew it was bullshit anyway.
Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago 2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy 2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE) 2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston 2020: Oakland, Oakland:2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana 2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville 2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
I wonder whether 2016 (and, therefore, maybe even worse this time) is less about the inaccuracy of the polls and more about the sheer devotion to Trump. For example, if a state says 51% Biden and 46% Trump, is it the case that 99.9% of the latter vote for Trump, while maybe 85% of the former bother to vote for Biden? (Made up numbers, but I think you get my point)
1995 Milwaukee 1998 Alpine, Alpine 2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston 2004 Boston, Boston 2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty) 2011 Alpine, Alpine 2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
I wonder whether 2016 (and, therefore, maybe even worse this time) is less about the inaccuracy of the polls and more about the sheer devotion to Trump. For example, if a state says 51% Biden and 46% Trump, is it the case that 99.9% of the latter vote for Trump, while maybe 85% of the former bother to vote for Biden? (Made up numbers, but I think you get my point)
That's why likely voters tends to be the more accurate measure. I don't see a scenario where a LV says they are voting Biden and then 15% decide to flip.
Definitely people are capable of getting complacent right now. Can't take the foot off the gas, continue to step on the throat. Act like you're trailing by 2 points.
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,337
Florida, Florida, Florida----as far as Joe getting the win on election night:
Comments
Second, about signs and flags, trump promotes it and also promotes us against them mentality. He is nasty towards democrats. He says the only way democrats win is if we cheat. He generates hatred from his supporters.
So do democrats want their homes and cars exposed to these insane, rabid votes? I like many I know, want badly for trump to lose, and are willing to vote in person to vote him out, but I do not want to expose my personal property to a rabid and insane trump fan base. I do not want a target on my property, especially one painted by the President of the United States. That’s a profound statement, and believe explains the lack of Biden signs.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/10/joe-biden-and-kamala-harris-hay-bale-display-set-fire/5954953002/
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
Wow, it's been a few days since checking the polls. I really really really don't want to let myself become overconfident but....
Interesting that Durham isn't going to release anything prior to the election. That backfired for them completely even though we knew it was bullshit anyway.
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
www.headstonesband.com
2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
www.headstonesband.com
www.headstonesband.com
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/12/biden-trump-2020-election-night-428856