Nate Silver 538

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  • The JugglerThe Juggler Posts: 48,845
    Biden in a landslide if election were today. What the fuck else can happen in the next 4 weeks though? 

    Trump's going to get even more irrational as he realizes his presidency is slipping away. 

    11/3 cannot get her soon enough. 
    www.myspace.com
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 6,582
    Biden in a landslide if election were today. What the fuck else can happen in the next 4 weeks though? 

    Trump's going to get even more irrational as he realizes his presidency is slipping away. 

    11/3 cannot get her soon enough. 

    I posted a link to that CNN poll because I haven’t seen a presidential polling lead this close to an election at 57-41 since the Reagan days. It looks like voters are correctly blaming trump for getting himself sick.

    4 weeks will be interesting, considering the side effects of the steroid trump is taking (it’s like trump personality on steroids),

    1. Aggression
    2. agitation
    3. anxiety
    4. blurred vision
    5. decrease in the amount of urine
    6. dizziness
    7. fast, slow, pounding, or irregular heartbeat or pulse
    8. headache
    9. irritability
    10. mental depression
    11. mood changes
    12. nervousness
    13. noisy, rattling breathing
    14. numbness or tingling in the arms or legs
    15. pounding in the ears
    16. swelling of the fingers, hands, feet, or lower legs
    17. trouble thinking, speaking, or walking
    18. troubled breathing at rest
    19. weight gain

  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Posts: 19,913
    I'll admit to being nervous.  I think the votes will be there to get rid of him but I grow more and more convinced that he will do something shady.

    I'm also nervous that COVID might not be as kind to Biden if he catches it.  Wouldn't it be awful if the asshole that downplays it recovers and the guy that set a good example has a worse result?


    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Posts: 48,845
    I'll admit to being nervous.  I think the votes will be there to get rid of him but I grow more and more convinced that he will do something shady.

    I'm also nervous that COVID might not be as kind to Biden if he catches it.  Wouldn't it be awful if the asshole that downplays it recovers and the guy that set a good example has a worse result?


    Yeah I am a little worried that Biden's gonna test positive. They need an enormous wall separating those two next week
    www.myspace.com
  • static111static111 Posts: 4,889
    I'll admit to being nervous.  I think the votes will be there to get rid of him but I grow more and more convinced that he will do something shady.

    I'm also nervous that COVID might not be as kind to Biden if he catches it.  Wouldn't it be awful if the asshole that downplays it recovers and the guy that set a good example has a worse result?


    Yeah I am a little worried that Biden's gonna test positive. They need an enormous wall separating those two next week
    If trump
    is still positive postpone the debate. 
    Scio me nihil scire

    There are no kings inside the gates of eden
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Posts: 19,913
    New FL poll in...Biden +6


    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
  • I'll admit to being nervous.  I think the votes will be there to get rid of him but I grow more and more convinced that he will do something shady.

    I'm also nervous that COVID might not be as kind to Biden if he catches it.  Wouldn't it be awful if the asshole that downplays it recovers and the guy that set a good example has a worse result?


    Yeah I am a little worried that Biden's gonna test positive. They need an enormous wall separating those two next week
    trump would probably intentionally spit or projectile breathe on him in some way. wouldn't put it past him. 
    new album "Cigarettes" out Spring 2025!

    www.headstonesband.com




  • New FL poll in...Biden +6


    ramussen probably has trump up by 4
    "You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry."  - Lincoln

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 6,582
    New FL poll in...Biden +6



    This is FL 4 years ago, interesting that all polling, and especially  U of North Fla, is almost 4 years to the day and about the same result 






  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,590
    New FL poll in...Biden +6



    This is FL 4 years ago, interesting that all polling, and especially  U of North Fla, is almost 4 years to the day and about the same result 






    I don't see being able to compare the two.  Not changing your assumptions in the demo split after 16 and 18 would be criminal from a polling perspective. 
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Posts: 48,845
    I'll admit to being nervous.  I think the votes will be there to get rid of him but I grow more and more convinced that he will do something shady.

    I'm also nervous that COVID might not be as kind to Biden if he catches it.  Wouldn't it be awful if the asshole that downplays it recovers and the guy that set a good example has a worse result?


    Yeah I am a little worried that Biden's gonna test positive. They need an enormous wall separating those two next week
    trump would probably intentionally spit or projectile breathe on him in some way. wouldn't put it past him. 
    The motherfucker was likely positive the day of the last debate. 
    www.myspace.com
  • I'll admit to being nervous.  I think the votes will be there to get rid of him but I grow more and more convinced that he will do something shady.

    I'm also nervous that COVID might not be as kind to Biden if he catches it.  Wouldn't it be awful if the asshole that downplays it recovers and the guy that set a good example has a worse result?


    Yeah I am a little worried that Biden's gonna test positive. They need an enormous wall separating those two next week
    trump would probably intentionally spit or projectile breathe on him in some way. wouldn't put it past him. 
    The motherfucker was likely positive the day of the last debate. 
    For sure, hence why Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat arrived too late to be tested pre-debate, breaking the rules because the rules don’t apply.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

    Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.

    Brilliantati©
  • I'll admit to being nervous.  I think the votes will be there to get rid of him but I grow more and more convinced that he will do something shady.

    I'm also nervous that COVID might not be as kind to Biden if he catches it.  Wouldn't it be awful if the asshole that downplays it recovers and the guy that set a good example has a worse result?


    Yeah I am a little worried that Biden's gonna test positive. They need an enormous wall separating those two next week
    trump would probably intentionally spit or projectile breathe on him in some way. wouldn't put it past him. 
    The motherfucker was likely positive the day of the last debate. 
    For sure, hence why Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat arrived too late to be tested pre-debate, breaking the rules because the rules don’t apply.
    yeah, the president doesn't arrive late unless it's intentional. 
    new album "Cigarettes" out Spring 2025!

    www.headstonesband.com




  • I'll admit to being nervous.  I think the votes will be there to get rid of him but I grow more and more convinced that he will do something shady.

    I'm also nervous that COVID might not be as kind to Biden if he catches it.  Wouldn't it be awful if the asshole that downplays it recovers and the guy that set a good example has a worse result?


    Yeah I am a little worried that Biden's gonna test positive. They need an enormous wall separating those two next week
    trump would probably intentionally spit or projectile breathe on him in some way. wouldn't put it past him. 
    The motherfucker was likely positive the day of the last debate. 
    For sure, hence why Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat arrived too late to be tested pre-debate, breaking the rules because the rules don’t apply.
    yeah, the president doesn't arrive late unless it's intentional. 
    to be fair, it takes 7 hours to get his hair and makeup done, so there's that.
    "You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry."  - Lincoln

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 6,582
    mrussel1 said:
    New FL poll in...Biden +6



    This is FL 4 years ago, interesting that all polling, and especially  U of North Fla, is almost 4 years to the day and about the same result 






    I don't see being able to compare the two.  Not changing your assumptions in the demo split after 16 and 18 would be criminal from a polling perspective. 

    It would be. It does look interesting in comparison. I haven’t seen Oct polling like biden is getting this week since the 80s.
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Posts: 48,845
    mrussel1 said:
    New FL poll in...Biden +6



    This is FL 4 years ago, interesting that all polling, and especially  U of North Fla, is almost 4 years to the day and about the same result 






    I don't see being able to compare the two.  Not changing your assumptions in the demo split after 16 and 18 would be criminal from a polling perspective. 

    It would be. It does look interesting in comparison. I haven’t seen Oct polling like biden is getting this week since the 80s.
    How old are you? lol
    www.myspace.com
  • dignindignin Posts: 9,332

    Jimmy Failla: Trump is on pace to win 2020 election in a 'lawn-slide' -- here's why I say that



    Trucker polls show Trump enjoying a massive edge in signage


    https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-win-2020-lawn-slide-jimmy-failla









  • trump IS winning the sign battle in MO and southern IL.
    "You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry."  - Lincoln

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • 538 has trump at 17, Biden at 82 and a tie at 1. This is a notable change in the last week. 
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • Just updated again at 17/83.
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 6,582
    mrussel1 said:
    New FL poll in...Biden +6



    This is FL 4 years ago, interesting that all polling, and especially  U of North Fla, is almost 4 years to the day and about the same result 






    I don't see being able to compare the two.  Not changing your assumptions in the demo split after 16 and 18 would be criminal from a polling perspective. 

    It would be. It does look interesting in comparison. I haven’t seen Oct polling like biden is getting this week since the 80s.
    How old are you? lol

    Younger than Ed, Matt and Jeff, older than Stone and Mike.
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Posts: 17,024
    So does someone go out of their way to pay for a PJ membership only to make 14 comments that could be better served in the Facebook comment section of a Breitbart article?

    Like bots can't sign up for a board membership right? So like this takes some serious work to want to troll a board where you pay right? On a semi-related note - I would pay a lot more for privileges here so that dips like this could not justify hanging around.

    On a thread-related note:

    My sources for following are: 1) 538 2) The Economist's model 3) PredictIt.org 4) 270towin.com - I think these 3, 4 sources will give you the greatest mosaic on getting a picture of what's going on.
  • So does someone go out of their way to pay for a PJ membership only to make 14 comments that could be better served in the Facebook comment section of a Breitbart article?

    Like bots can't sign up for a board membership right? So like this takes some serious work to want to troll a board where you pay right? On a semi-related note - I would pay a lot more for privileges here so that dips like this could not justify hanging around.

    On a thread-related note:

    My sources for following are: 1) 538 2) The Economist's model 3) PredictIt.org 4) 270towin.com - I think these 3, 4 sources will give you the greatest mosaic on getting a picture of what's going on.
    Does 10C accept Bitcoin? Its been established that putin on the ritz's troll farms paid for web domains and pay to play posting privileges with credit cards and Bitcoin and other cyber payment methods, including "straw purchasers." Not a bad ROI, all things considered.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

    Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.

    Brilliantati©
  • So does someone go out of their way to pay for a PJ membership only to make 14 comments that could be better served in the Facebook comment section of a Breitbart article?

    Like bots can't sign up for a board membership right? So like this takes some serious work to want to troll a board where you pay right? On a semi-related note - I would pay a lot more for privileges here so that dips like this could not justify hanging around.

    On a thread-related note:

    My sources for following are: 1) 538 2) The Economist's model 3) PredictIt.org 4) 270towin.com - I think these 3, 4 sources will give you the greatest mosaic on getting a picture of what's going on.
    i've actually seen people get banned after less than 10 posts, brand new member (not just new to posting). 
    new album "Cigarettes" out Spring 2025!

    www.headstonesband.com




  • The JugglerThe Juggler Posts: 48,845
    So does someone go out of their way to pay for a PJ membership only to make 14 comments that could be better served in the Facebook comment section of a Breitbart article?

    Like bots can't sign up for a board membership right? So like this takes some serious work to want to troll a board where you pay right? On a semi-related note - I would pay a lot more for privileges here so that dips like this could not justify hanging around.

    On a thread-related note:

    My sources for following are: 1) 538 2) The Economist's model 3) PredictIt.org 4) 270towin.com - I think these 3, 4 sources will give you the greatest mosaic on getting a picture of what's going on.
    i've actually seen people get banned after less than 10 posts, brand new member (not just new to posting). 
    Who are we talking about here, gents?
    www.myspace.com
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,590
    So does someone go out of their way to pay for a PJ membership only to make 14 comments that could be better served in the Facebook comment section of a Breitbart article?

    Like bots can't sign up for a board membership right? So like this takes some serious work to want to troll a board where you pay right? On a semi-related note - I would pay a lot more for privileges here so that dips like this could not justify hanging around.

    On a thread-related note:

    My sources for following are: 1) 538 2) The Economist's model 3) PredictIt.org 4) 270towin.com - I think these 3, 4 sources will give you the greatest mosaic on getting a picture of what's going on.
    i've actually seen people get banned after less than 10 posts, brand new member (not just new to posting). 
    Who are we talking about here, gents?
    Was wondering the same. I remember a few months ago we had a 'professor' that called everyone racist.  That was a fascinating 72 hours. 
  • mrussel1 said:
    So does someone go out of their way to pay for a PJ membership only to make 14 comments that could be better served in the Facebook comment section of a Breitbart article?

    Like bots can't sign up for a board membership right? So like this takes some serious work to want to troll a board where you pay right? On a semi-related note - I would pay a lot more for privileges here so that dips like this could not justify hanging around.

    On a thread-related note:

    My sources for following are: 1) 538 2) The Economist's model 3) PredictIt.org 4) 270towin.com - I think these 3, 4 sources will give you the greatest mosaic on getting a picture of what's going on.
    i've actually seen people get banned after less than 10 posts, brand new member (not just new to posting). 
    Who are we talking about here, gents?
    Was wondering the same. I remember a few months ago we had a 'professor' that called everyone racist.  That was a fascinating 72 hours. 
    i remember that one!

    * pours out beer in memory of the homie...
    "You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry."  - Lincoln

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • I wonder how the Gays Against Pete “movement” is progressing? They need to be mobilized and ready for 2024 with at least a chapter in every state. 
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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  • bootlegbootleg Posts: 681
    dignin said:

    Jimmy Failla: Trump is on pace to win 2020 election in a 'lawn-slide' -- here's why I say that



    Trucker polls show Trump enjoying a massive edge in signage


    https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-win-2020-lawn-slide-jimmy-failla









    Trumpeters tend to be pretty loud about it so that’s one reason you’ll see more signs.  The other reason is Biden supporters likely don’t want to paint a big target on their house since Trump is also the party of more crazy nut jobs.
  • bootleg said:
    dignin said:

    Jimmy Failla: Trump is on pace to win 2020 election in a 'lawn-slide' -- here's why I say that



    Trucker polls show Trump enjoying a massive edge in signage


    https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-win-2020-lawn-slide-jimmy-failla









    Trumpeters tend to be pretty loud about it so that’s one reason you’ll see more signs.  The other reason is Biden supporters likely don’t want to paint a big target on their house since Trump is also the party of more crazy nut jobs.
    1000% this
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
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