538 now has odds at 84% Biden 16% Trump, and Trumps odds have been dropping about a point a day.
Their electoral prediction is currently 343 to 195, and they say Biden is likely to even go above that.
That would be a very well deserved literal ass kicking for the narcissistic orange fuck. I really hope the time from now until Biden’s inauguration are the worst days of his miserable life. After that, who gives a flying rats ass.
"A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
When I check his numbers I don't really get caught up in his electoral vote prediction, though you definitely have to look at specific states (swing) for the overall prediction of a win, or his %s. 84 out of 16 still means 16 times out of 100 is a Trump win, which is not nothing. If you were rolling dice and hit on the first roll (Election Day) then game over.
Personally, I'll look at his popular vote prediction and then specifically look at FL, PA, MI, WI, AZ. The thought is anything over 6 points is a win. I like to play it conservative and say 7. Right now he has Biden at 7.9 - I really don't think 130+ electoral margin is going to happen, though I think a 100+ could definitely happen. If Biden gets FL it's a done deal. If he loses FL but regains PA it's also a lock because I don't see him losing 2 of PA/WI/MI like how 2016 happened. The only way that happens is if AZ doesn't push over like so many think then all of a sudden NE2 comes into play (Obamaha).
Pretty wild to see The Economist has Biden up to 91% to win the electoral vote. Any time %'s get to 95% you can call it an absolute certainty (depending on the source and this is a good source).
To me, if it's a blowout electorally (via the popular vote it will be a blowout), this is what it looks like:
When I check his numbers I don't really get caught up in his electoral vote prediction, though you definitely have to look at specific states (swing) for the overall prediction of a win, or his %s. 84 out of 16 still means 16 times out of 100 is a Trump win, which is not nothing. If you were rolling dice and hit on the first roll (Election Day) then game over.
Personally, I'll look at his popular vote prediction and then specifically look at FL, PA, MI, WI, AZ. The thought is anything over 6 points is a win. I like to play it conservative and say 7. Right now he has Biden at 7.9 - I really don't think 130+ electoral margin is going to happen, though I think a 100+ could definitely happen. If Biden gets FL it's a done deal. If he loses FL but regains PA it's also a lock because I don't see him losing 2 of PA/WI/MI like how 2016 happened. The only way that happens is if AZ doesn't push over like so many think then all of a sudden NE2 comes into play (Obamaha).
Pretty wild to see The Economist has Biden up to 91% to win the electoral vote. Any time %'s get to 95% you can call it an absolute certainty (depending on the source and this is a good source).
To me, if it's a blowout electorally (via the popular vote it will be a blowout), this is what it looks like:
Sure but I don't see that happening. These are my predictions. Biden is killing it in Maine. And I think there's more of a chance of him losing WI than PA. I live in PA and I'm almost at the point of calling it here. The amount of work I know locally we're doing is going to pay off. Trump had everything bounce in his favor in 2016 and he still barely won by ~44k votes. PA can make that up in Philly alone.
No way on Ohio. I'm sorry I just don't see it. Not impossible, but I just can't believe it. NC maybe, but I think Cal Cunningham may be fucking it all up down there.
I heard tRump talking about Cunningham this morning..."this guy had like two affairs"...digest that for a second
Haha, I hear you, but we're not here - nor the last four years - because of rational thinking.
I think this article sums it up pretty well. I think he got a lot of people that just said, "fuck it. let's see how it goes", who are not complete imbeciles - privileged, yes, but not imbeciles. Oh, and the whole "he's a businessman" schtick, when what they really meant was they liked the tough guy boss persona from a made-up, scripted TV show where he fired celebrities.
Sure but I don't see that happening. These are my predictions. Biden is killing it in Maine. And I think there's more of a chance of him losing WI than PA. I live in PA and I'm almost at the point of calling it here. The amount of work I know locally we're doing is going to pay off. Trump had everything bounce in his favor in 2016 and he still barely won by ~44k votes. PA can make that up in Philly alone.
I hope you are right but the big T of PA has me concerned. Of huge importance in ME is defeating Collins. The Dems desperately need the senate and add DC as a state, and PR if they want it.
Sure but I don't see that happening. These are my predictions. Biden is killing it in Maine. And I think there's more of a chance of him losing WI than PA. I live in PA and I'm almost at the point of calling it here. The amount of work I know locally we're doing is going to pay off. Trump had everything bounce in his favor in 2016 and he still barely won by ~44k votes. PA can make that up in Philly alone.
I hope you are right but the big T of PA has me concerned. Of huge importance in ME is defeating Collins. The Dems desperately need the senate and add DC as a state, and PR if they want it.
I don't see Cunningham winning now. Terrible, terrible, terrible. I hope I'm wrong.
Sure but I don't see that happening. These are my predictions. Biden is killing it in Maine. And I think there's more of a chance of him losing WI than PA. I live in PA and I'm almost at the point of calling it here. The amount of work I know locally we're doing is going to pay off. Trump had everything bounce in his favor in 2016 and he still barely won by ~44k votes. PA can make that up in Philly alone.
I hope you are right but the big T of PA has me concerned. Of huge importance in ME is defeating Collins. The Dems desperately need the senate and add DC as a state, and PR if they want it.
I don't see Cunningham winning now. Terrible, terrible, terrible. I hope I'm wrong.
I feel like people don't care anymore (about affairs, etc.)....tRump has lowered the bar to the point that there isn't a bar
Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago 2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy 2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE) 2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston 2020: Oakland, Oakland:2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana 2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville 2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
Sure but I don't see that happening. These are my predictions. Biden is killing it in Maine. And I think there's more of a chance of him losing WI than PA. I live in PA and I'm almost at the point of calling it here. The amount of work I know locally we're doing is going to pay off. Trump had everything bounce in his favor in 2016 and he still barely won by ~44k votes. PA can make that up in Philly alone.
I hope you are right but the big T of PA has me concerned. Of huge importance in ME is defeating Collins. The Dems desperately need the senate and add DC as a state, and PR if they want it.
I don't see Cunningham winning now. Terrible, terrible, terrible. I hope I'm wrong.
I feel like people don't care anymore (about affairs, etc.)....tRump has lowered the bar to the point that there isn't a bar
Maybe.. but sometimes people look for a reason to not vote for the other party, the one they are not inclined to supporting. That's the risk. Hope you're right. This one looked 70/30% locked in. Not so much now.
Sure but I don't see that happening. These are my predictions. Biden is killing it in Maine. And I think there's more of a chance of him losing WI than PA. I live in PA and I'm almost at the point of calling it here. The amount of work I know locally we're doing is going to pay off. Trump had everything bounce in his favor in 2016 and he still barely won by ~44k votes. PA can make that up in Philly alone.
I hope you are right but the big T of PA has me concerned. Of huge importance in ME is defeating Collins. The Dems desperately need the senate and add DC as a state, and PR if they want it.
I don't see Cunningham winning now. Terrible, terrible, terrible. I hope I'm wrong.
I feel like people don't care anymore (about affairs, etc.)....tRump has lowered the bar to the point that there isn't a bar
Maybe.. but sometimes people look for a reason to not vote for the other party, the one they are not inclined to supporting. That's the risk. Hope you're right. This one looked 70/30% locked in. Not so much now.
I don't think it hurts today as much as it would have a few decades ago. Or even as much as it would have six years ago. But it certainly does not help....Ugh.
1995 Milwaukee 1998 Alpine, Alpine 2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston 2004 Boston, Boston 2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty) 2011 Alpine, Alpine 2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
Sure but I don't see that happening. These are my predictions. Biden is killing it in Maine. And I think there's more of a chance of him losing WI than PA. I live in PA and I'm almost at the point of calling it here. The amount of work I know locally we're doing is going to pay off. Trump had everything bounce in his favor in 2016 and he still barely won by ~44k votes. PA can make that up in Philly alone.
I hope you are right but the big T of PA has me concerned. Of huge importance in ME is defeating Collins. The Dems desperately need the senate and add DC as a state, and PR if they want it.
I don't see Cunningham winning now. Terrible, terrible, terrible. I hope I'm wrong.
I feel like people don't care anymore (about affairs, etc.)....tRump has lowered the bar to the point that there isn't a bar
Maybe.. but sometimes people look for a reason to not vote for the other party, the one they are not inclined to supporting. That's the risk. Hope you're right. This one looked 70/30% locked in. Not so much now.
This. The mental gymnastics people put themselves through to stay party over country is amazing sometimes. Voters are moved by fear and doubt more than rational thought, policy, and optimism sadly.
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mickeyrat
up my ass, like Chadwick was up his Posts: 35,881
didnt they elect mark sanford to congress after he resigned as govrnor over this very thing? hell even using tax dollars?
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
Those are strong projections for margins against Trump in PA and WI. Now this is from June, July, and the ironic part is how they ask how Biden could hurt his chances with an "October Surprise". Haha.
Sure but I don't see that happening. These are my predictions. Biden is killing it in Maine. And I think there's more of a chance of him losing WI than PA. I live in PA and I'm almost at the point of calling it here. The amount of work I know locally we're doing is going to pay off. Trump had everything bounce in his favor in 2016 and he still barely won by ~44k votes. PA can make that up in Philly alone.
ME2 is the second congressional district in Maine. It is very rural and not diverse. At best it’s a tossup electoral vote for Biden.
What if 3% of trump supporters are lying to pollsters in 3 states, AZ, FL and WI?
Then the polls would probably vary much more than they are and it would take a broader unified group effort. You could get 500 goobers on an AZ republican facebook group to agree to it, put maybe only one would get polled. . The pools are all very static over time. Same with approval ratings.
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mickeyrat
up my ass, like Chadwick was up his Posts: 35,881
what if..... indeed.
this must explain why trump is focused on Az. one rally already. 2 on hold and pence is there today. just exudes confidence.........
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
didnt they elect mark sanford to congress after he resigned as govrnor over this very thing? hell even using tax dollars?
Yes but he went in the wilderness for a few years. If NC were a Democratic state I'd be less concerned.
This could be the senate, and the Dems may not get many chances to win the senate in the near future. They need to flip 4 seats assuming AL is likely going back R. Assuming CO, ME and AZ flip (which is not a given), NC was their best bet for the coveted 4th seat to flip, as Cunningham was polling strongly for most of the summer.
Without NC, the best bet for that 4th flip is likely IA, gulp. If NC isn’t flipping then its likely SC and GA are staying red.
the Dems really really really need NC. Without the senate, there is no DC statehood, which might be the most important political issue after covid.
didnt they elect mark sanford to congress after he resigned as govrnor over this very thing? hell even using tax dollars?
Yes but he went in the wilderness for a few years. If NC were a Democratic state I'd be less concerned.
This could be the senate, and the Dems may not get many chances to win the senate in the near future. They need to flip 4 seats assuming AL is likely going back R. Assuming CO, ME and AZ flip (which is not a given), NC was their best bet for the coveted 4th seat to flip, as Cunningham was polling strongly for most of the summer.
Without NC, the best bet for that 4th flip is likely IA, gulp. If NC isn’t flipping then its likely SC and GA are staying red.
the Dems really really really need NC. Without the senate, there is no DC statehood, which might be the most important political issue after covid.
Comments
When I check his numbers I don't really get caught up in his electoral vote prediction, though you definitely have to look at specific states (swing) for the overall prediction of a win, or his %s. 84 out of 16 still means 16 times out of 100 is a Trump win, which is not nothing. If you were rolling dice and hit on the first roll (Election Day) then game over.
Personally, I'll look at his popular vote prediction and then specifically look at FL, PA, MI, WI, AZ. The thought is anything over 6 points is a win. I like to play it conservative and say 7. Right now he has Biden at 7.9 - I really don't think 130+ electoral margin is going to happen, though I think a 100+ could definitely happen. If Biden gets FL it's a done deal. If he loses FL but regains PA it's also a lock because I don't see him losing 2 of PA/WI/MI like how 2016 happened. The only way that happens is if AZ doesn't push over like so many think then all of a sudden NE2 comes into play (Obamaha).
Pretty wild to see The Economist has Biden up to 91% to win the electoral vote. Any time %'s get to 95% you can call it an absolute certainty (depending on the source and this is a good source).
To me, if it's a blowout electorally (via the popular vote it will be a blowout), this is what it looks like:
But this is my realistic prediction:
Sure but I don't see that happening. These are my predictions. Biden is killing it in Maine. And I think there's more of a chance of him losing WI than PA. I live in PA and I'm almost at the point of calling it here. The amount of work I know locally we're doing is going to pay off. Trump had everything bounce in his favor in 2016 and he still barely won by ~44k votes. PA can make that up in Philly alone.
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
I think this article sums it up pretty well. I think he got a lot of people that just said, "fuck it. let's see how it goes", who are not complete imbeciles - privileged, yes, but not imbeciles. Oh, and the whole "he's a businessman" schtick, when what they really meant was they liked the tough guy boss persona from a made-up, scripted TV show where he fired celebrities.
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
I don't think it hurts today as much as it would have a few decades ago. Or even as much as it would have six years ago. But it certainly does not help....Ugh.
2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
I don't know how I missed this, and I would include Moody's model in my decisions if their membership didn't cost so goddamn much to access.
https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/faq/2020/election-model-webinar-qa.pdf
Found the webinar: https://www.moodysanalytics.com/webinars-on-demand/2020/who-will-be-the-next-president
Those are strong projections for margins against Trump in PA and WI. Now this is from June, July, and the ironic part is how they ask how Biden could hurt his chances with an "October Surprise". Haha.
Not today Sir, Probably not tomorrow.............................................. bayfront arena st. pete '94
you're finally here and I'm a mess................................................... nationwide arena columbus '10
memories like fingerprints are slowly raising.................................... first niagara center buffalo '13
another man ..... moved by sleight of hand...................................... joe louis arena detroit '14
This could be the senate, and the Dems may not get many chances to win the senate in the near future. They need to flip 4 seats assuming AL is likely going back R. Assuming CO, ME and AZ flip (which is not a given), NC was their best bet for the coveted 4th seat to flip, as Cunningham was polling strongly for most of the summer.
Without NC, the best bet for that 4th flip is likely IA, gulp. If NC isn’t flipping then its likely SC and GA are staying red.
the Dems really really really need NC. Without the senate, there is no DC statehood, which might be the most important political issue after covid.
There are no kings inside the gates of eden