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  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,590
    bootleg said:
    dignin said:

    Jimmy Failla: Trump is on pace to win 2020 election in a 'lawn-slide' -- here's why I say that



    Trucker polls show Trump enjoying a massive edge in signage


    https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-win-2020-lawn-slide-jimmy-failla









    Trumpeters tend to be pretty loud about it so that’s one reason you’ll see more signs.  The other reason is Biden supporters likely don’t want to paint a big target on their house since Trump is also the party of more crazy nut jobs.
    It's also because many Democrats have a little class and aren't interested in being in a cult.  The argument is the last vestige of desperation,  when you have nothing else. 
  • dignindignin Posts: 9,332
    mrussel1 said:
    bootleg said:
    dignin said:

    Jimmy Failla: Trump is on pace to win 2020 election in a 'lawn-slide' -- here's why I say that



    Trucker polls show Trump enjoying a massive edge in signage


    https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-win-2020-lawn-slide-jimmy-failla









    Trumpeters tend to be pretty loud about it so that’s one reason you’ll see more signs.  The other reason is Biden supporters likely don’t want to paint a big target on their house since Trump is also the party of more crazy nut jobs.
    It's also because many Democrats have a little class and aren't interested in being in a cult.  The argument is the last vestige of desperation,  when you have nothing else. 
    Yeah, I posted the article as a joke. Fox can't point to actual polls, so they have to resort to printing garbage like this.

    Kinda like how for the last day Hillary's emails have been their top story on their website. They are such a farce.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,590
    dignin said:
    mrussel1 said:
    bootleg said:
    dignin said:

    Jimmy Failla: Trump is on pace to win 2020 election in a 'lawn-slide' -- here's why I say that



    Trucker polls show Trump enjoying a massive edge in signage


    https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-win-2020-lawn-slide-jimmy-failla









    Trumpeters tend to be pretty loud about it so that’s one reason you’ll see more signs.  The other reason is Biden supporters likely don’t want to paint a big target on their house since Trump is also the party of more crazy nut jobs.
    It's also because many Democrats have a little class and aren't interested in being in a cult.  The argument is the last vestige of desperation,  when you have nothing else. 
    Yeah, I posted the article as a joke. Fox can't point to actual polls, so they have to resort to printing garbage like this.

    Kinda like how for the last day Hillary's emails have been their top story on their website. They are such a farce.
    haha.. I know.  They're down to the last bag of tricks.  Everyone is past 2016.  
  • So does someone go out of their way to pay for a PJ membership only to make 14 comments that could be better served in the Facebook comment section of a Breitbart article?

    Like bots can't sign up for a board membership right? So like this takes some serious work to want to troll a board where you pay right? On a semi-related note - I would pay a lot more for privileges here so that dips like this could not justify hanging around.

    On a thread-related note:

    My sources for following are: 1) 538 2) The Economist's model 3) PredictIt.org 4) 270towin.com - I think these 3, 4 sources will give you the greatest mosaic on getting a picture of what's going on.
    i've actually seen people get banned after less than 10 posts, brand new member (not just new to posting). 
    Who are we talking about here, gents?
    i don't know the specifics of who jearlpam is talking about, i was just saying i've actually seen it before, with someone obviously buying a membership and purposely getting banned within a few posts. 
    new album "Cigarettes" out Spring 2025!

    www.headstonesband.com




  • HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon Posts: 36,813
    edited October 2020
    i'd never put a tacky political sign in my yard. never understood the point. i always love driving by a house that has two signs, one from each party. makes me wonder how dinnertime is at that house. 
    new album "Cigarettes" out Spring 2025!

    www.headstonesband.com




  • MayDay10MayDay10 Posts: 11,717
    mrussel1 said:
    bootleg said:
    dignin said:

    Jimmy Failla: Trump is on pace to win 2020 election in a 'lawn-slide' -- here's why I say that



    Trucker polls show Trump enjoying a massive edge in signage


    https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-win-2020-lawn-slide-jimmy-failla









    Trumpeters tend to be pretty loud about it so that’s one reason you’ll see more signs.  The other reason is Biden supporters likely don’t want to paint a big target on their house since Trump is also the party of more crazy nut jobs.
    It's also because many Democrats have a little class and aren't interested in being in a cult.  The argument is the last vestige of desperation,  when you have nothing else. 
    Yeah.  I liked Obama, kind of.  I would never wear an Obama hat with some slogan, or a shirt, or anything else.  I wouldnt even put a partisan sticker on my vehicle.  Its silly, and I have my own identity without trying to latch on some political party.  All those sill chotchky items like commemorative coins, mugs, etc. My god.  get a life.  Or the pickup trucks with the penis-compensating American and Trump flags on the back.  Whoa.  Cool!

    In the past few weeks, I have seen several cars with a TRUMP 2020 NO MORE BULLSHIT bumper sticker.  This is with my kids in the car.  This is our president.  These are (I would assume) adults who buy this sticker and attach it to the paint of their $30,000 vehicle.  WTF.  Can we all just go to time out?
  • HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon Posts: 36,813
    edited October 2020
    MayDay10 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    bootleg said:
    dignin said:

    Jimmy Failla: Trump is on pace to win 2020 election in a 'lawn-slide' -- here's why I say that



    Trucker polls show Trump enjoying a massive edge in signage


    https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-win-2020-lawn-slide-jimmy-failla









    Trumpeters tend to be pretty loud about it so that’s one reason you’ll see more signs.  The other reason is Biden supporters likely don’t want to paint a big target on their house since Trump is also the party of more crazy nut jobs.
    It's also because many Democrats have a little class and aren't interested in being in a cult.  The argument is the last vestige of desperation,  when you have nothing else. 
    Yeah.  I liked Obama, kind of.  I would never wear an Obama hat with some slogan, or a shirt, or anything else.  I wouldnt even put a partisan sticker on my vehicle.  Its silly, and I have my own identity without trying to latch on some political party.  All those sill chotchky items like commemorative coins, mugs, etc. My god.  get a life.  Or the pickup trucks with the penis-compensating American and Trump flags on the back.  Whoa.  Cool!

    In the past few weeks, I have seen several cars with a TRUMP 2020 NO MORE BULLSHIT bumper sticker.  This is with my kids in the car.  This is our president.  These are (I would assume) adults who buy this sticker and attach it to the paint of their $30,000 vehicle.  WTF.  Can we all just go to time out?
    I previously agreed with this, however, I started thinking about parallels. I mean, how different is it with any given passion? people put band (PEARL JAM) stickers on their cars. I was just thinking, if Pearl Jam called me and asked if they could put a sign in my yard to advertise my support for their upcoming show, damn rights I'd say yes. LOL. then after the show I'd probably hang that sign on my bar, and they'd be going for hundreds in Lost Dogs and eBay. 

    people were buying dog collars and hideous track suits with the band's name on it. I bought a fucking balaclava that is itchy as fuck and i'll probably never wear just because I love Jeff Ament. and how many thousands have pearl jam/stickman tattoos? talk about a cult. LOL
    new album "Cigarettes" out Spring 2025!

    www.headstonesband.com




  • tbergstbergs Posts: 9,730
    MayDay10 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    bootleg said:
    dignin said:

    Jimmy Failla: Trump is on pace to win 2020 election in a 'lawn-slide' -- here's why I say that



    Trucker polls show Trump enjoying a massive edge in signage


    https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-win-2020-lawn-slide-jimmy-failla









    Trumpeters tend to be pretty loud about it so that’s one reason you’ll see more signs.  The other reason is Biden supporters likely don’t want to paint a big target on their house since Trump is also the party of more crazy nut jobs.
    It's also because many Democrats have a little class and aren't interested in being in a cult.  The argument is the last vestige of desperation,  when you have nothing else. 
    Yeah.  I liked Obama, kind of.  I would never wear an Obama hat with some slogan, or a shirt, or anything else.  I wouldnt even put a partisan sticker on my vehicle.  Its silly, and I have my own identity without trying to latch on some political party.  All those sill chotchky items like commemorative coins, mugs, etc. My god.  get a life.  Or the pickup trucks with the penis-compensating American and Trump flags on the back.  Whoa.  Cool!

    In the past few weeks, I have seen several cars with a TRUMP 2020 NO MORE BULLSHIT bumper sticker.  This is with my kids in the car.  This is our president.  These are (I would assume) adults who buy this sticker and attach it to the paint of their $30,000 vehicle.  WTF.  Can we all just go to time out?
    I feel like it's a blatant sign of mental illness. The trucks with the massive duo of US and Trump flags on the back are redonkulous. They only do it because they want to get a response out of the non-supporters.
    It's a hopeless situation...
  • OnWis97OnWis97 Posts: 5,057
    MayDay10 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    bootleg said:
    dignin said:

    Jimmy Failla: Trump is on pace to win 2020 election in a 'lawn-slide' -- here's why I say that



    Trucker polls show Trump enjoying a massive edge in signage


    https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-win-2020-lawn-slide-jimmy-failla









    Trumpeters tend to be pretty loud about it so that’s one reason you’ll see more signs.  The other reason is Biden supporters likely don’t want to paint a big target on their house since Trump is also the party of more crazy nut jobs.
    It's also because many Democrats have a little class and aren't interested in being in a cult.  The argument is the last vestige of desperation,  when you have nothing else. 
    Yeah.  I liked Obama, kind of.  I would never wear an Obama hat with some slogan, or a shirt, or anything else.  I wouldnt even put a partisan sticker on my vehicle.  Its silly, and I have my own identity without trying to latch on some political party.  All those sill chotchky items like commemorative coins, mugs, etc. My god.  get a life.  Or the pickup trucks with the penis-compensating American and Trump flags on the back.  Whoa.  Cool!

    In the past few weeks, I have seen several cars with a TRUMP 2020 NO MORE BULLSHIT bumper sticker.  This is with my kids in the car.  This is our president.  These are (I would assume) adults who buy this sticker and attach it to the paint of their $30,000 vehicle.  WTF.  Can we all just go to time out?
    Signs that people see are meaningless. Traditionally, this is particularly true for president. I recall as a kid, most of the signs I'd see were for mayor or state legislative seats, because the candidates literally went door-to-door to ask people to do it. I don't recall yard signs for Reagan, Clinton, etc. Now, in the era of the internet, I'm seeing dozens of static Biden signs on my bike rides (through liberal Minneapolis and St. Paul). Well, I know Biden's going to do well there...that doesn't mean anything state/nationwide. Similarly, on longer trips, it's almost all Trump along the highways.  That's a change in the times. We're just more into screaming about Prez nowadays as we get more divided.

    But anyone who thinks the signs they see, matter a lick, doesn't really understand what anecdotal evidence is (or, rather, isn't).

    I've never had a bumper sticker,* t-shirt, hat, or even sign. I'd have to really, really believe in someone to do that and that's not how I vote. And with Trump fans acting like rabid college football fans, it turns me off to the idea even more. I think the rabid fandom is symptomatic of cheering for the "win" with little interest in what the win actually means for the fan or the fan's community/country.

    As for this Fox story about billboards, it strikes me as grasping at straws and maybe even a bit of a feed into the "it must have been fraud" BS.

    *I just bought a 2019 car a year ago. Prior to that I'd had a 2004 car I bought new. I'm glad I wasn't driving around with a Kerry bumper sticker for 15 years!
    1995 Milwaukee     1998 Alpine, Alpine     2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston     2004 Boston, Boston     2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty)     2011 Alpine, Alpine     
    2013 Wrigley     2014 St. Paul     2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley     2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley     2021 Asbury Park     2022 St Louis     2023 Austin, Austin
  • OnWis97 said:
    MayDay10 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    bootleg said:
    dignin said:

    Jimmy Failla: Trump is on pace to win 2020 election in a 'lawn-slide' -- here's why I say that



    Trucker polls show Trump enjoying a massive edge in signage


    https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-win-2020-lawn-slide-jimmy-failla









    Trumpeters tend to be pretty loud about it so that’s one reason you’ll see more signs.  The other reason is Biden supporters likely don’t want to paint a big target on their house since Trump is also the party of more crazy nut jobs.
    It's also because many Democrats have a little class and aren't interested in being in a cult.  The argument is the last vestige of desperation,  when you have nothing else. 
    Yeah.  I liked Obama, kind of.  I would never wear an Obama hat with some slogan, or a shirt, or anything else.  I wouldnt even put a partisan sticker on my vehicle.  Its silly, and I have my own identity without trying to latch on some political party.  All those sill chotchky items like commemorative coins, mugs, etc. My god.  get a life.  Or the pickup trucks with the penis-compensating American and Trump flags on the back.  Whoa.  Cool!

    In the past few weeks, I have seen several cars with a TRUMP 2020 NO MORE BULLSHIT bumper sticker.  This is with my kids in the car.  This is our president.  These are (I would assume) adults who buy this sticker and attach it to the paint of their $30,000 vehicle.  WTF.  Can we all just go to time out?
    Signs that people see are meaningless. Traditionally, this is particularly true for president. I recall as a kid, most of the signs I'd see were for mayor or state legislative seats, because the candidates literally went door-to-door to ask people to do it. I don't recall yard signs for Reagan, Clinton, etc. Now, in the era of the internet, I'm seeing dozens of static Biden signs on my bike rides (through liberal Minneapolis and St. Paul). Well, I know Biden's going to do well there...that doesn't mean anything state/nationwide. Similarly, on longer trips, it's almost all Trump along the highways.  That's a change in the times. We're just more into screaming about Prez nowadays as we get more divided.

    But anyone who thinks the signs they see, matter a lick, doesn't really understand what anecdotal evidence is (or, rather, isn't).

    I've never had a bumper sticker,* t-shirt, hat, or even sign. I'd have to really, really believe in someone to do that and that's not how I vote. And with Trump fans acting like rabid college football fans, it turns me off to the idea even more. I think the rabid fandom is symptomatic of cheering for the "win" with little interest in what the win actually means for the fan or the fan's community/country.

    As for this Fox story about billboards, it strikes me as grasping at straws and maybe even a bit of a feed into the "it must have been fraud" BS.

    *I just bought a 2019 car a year ago. Prior to that I'd had a 2004 car I bought new. I'm glad I wasn't driving around with a Kerry bumper sticker for 15 years!
    BINGO
    new album "Cigarettes" out Spring 2025!

    www.headstonesband.com




  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Posts: 19,913
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana

  • Interesting to see from Iowa. 538 now just moved to 16/84. It's moved a lot since the debates.
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,590

    Interesting to see from Iowa. 538 now just moved to 16/84. It's moved a lot since the debates.
    Someone needs to start a website to "unskew" the polls like on 2012.
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 6,586

    Interesting to see from Iowa. 538 now just moved to 16/84. It's moved a lot since the debates.

    Anyone want to take some action on the “over” with those quinnipiac polls? 
  • mrussel1 said:

    Interesting to see from Iowa. 538 now just moved to 16/84. It's moved a lot since the debates.
    Someone needs to start a website to "unskew" the polls like on 2012.
    I should clarify that the 16/84 was the overall election, not the Iowa numbers.

    What was interesting about Iowa was from Gern's post from the Quinnipiac polls.
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Posts: 48,845
    Guys, I don't think these polls are picking up shy Trump voters
    www.myspace.com
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Posts: 19,913
    mrussel1 said:

    Interesting to see from Iowa. 538 now just moved to 16/84. It's moved a lot since the debates.
    Someone needs to start a website to "unskew" the polls like on 2012.
    I should clarify that the 16/84 was the overall election, not the Iowa numbers.

    What was interesting about Iowa was from Gern's post from the Quinnipiac polls.
    Quinnipiac is a B+ poll so IA should have some movement toward Biden I would think


    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
  • MayDay10MayDay10 Posts: 11,717
    that debate was a damn disaster for trump, huh
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,590
    MayDay10 said:
    that debate was a damn disaster for trump, huh
    Yes but I think the COVID really crystallized the recklessness of Trump. You can see how few undecided voters are left now. 
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,590
    Taxes +debate + plague.   Has any candidate ever had a worse week?
  • MayDay10 said:
    that debate was a damn disaster for trump, huh
    And every subsequent minute thereafter. Good riddance because that orange piece of shit deserves every last bit of it.
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Posts: 17,024
    Anybody listen to The Political Trade podcast? https://luckboxmagazine.com/tpt/

    They had the guy from Trafalgar on recently. It's astounding how many people are getting recognition for calling one election - mainly Trafalgar and Rasmussen.

    Semi-related note - really getting into the predictit betting market now. Good times.
  • OnWis97OnWis97 Posts: 5,057
    mrussel1 said:
    MayDay10 said:
    that debate was a damn disaster for trump, huh
    Yes but I think the COVID really crystallized the recklessness of Trump. You can see how few undecided voters are left now. 
    And the belief that he beat Covid in 4 days probably cushioned that blow. If he starts getting worse again, it's going hurt his polling even more. (Of course, they'll do all they can to hide that).
    1995 Milwaukee     1998 Alpine, Alpine     2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston     2004 Boston, Boston     2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty)     2011 Alpine, Alpine     
    2013 Wrigley     2014 St. Paul     2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley     2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley     2021 Asbury Park     2022 St Louis     2023 Austin, Austin
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Posts: 19,913
    OnWis97 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    MayDay10 said:
    that debate was a damn disaster for trump, huh
    Yes but I think the COVID really crystallized the recklessness of Trump. You can see how few undecided voters are left now. 
    And the belief that he beat Covid in 4 days probably cushioned that blow. If he starts getting worse again, it's going hurt his polling even more. (Of course, they'll do all they can to hide that).
    Or...if someone in his orbit (Christie, Giulianni, etc.) gets horribly ill.  
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 6,586
    Anybody listen to The Political Trade podcast? https://luckboxmagazine.com/tpt/

    They had the guy from Trafalgar on recently. It's astounding how many people are getting recognition for calling one election - mainly Trafalgar and Rasmussen.

    Semi-related note - really getting into the predictit betting market now. Good times.

    when you call the biggest upset of the last 50 years it’s quite an accomplishment.

    The mainstream pollsters are toast if they get this election wrong.
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Posts: 17,024
    Anybody listen to The Political Trade podcast? https://luckboxmagazine.com/tpt/

    They had the guy from Trafalgar on recently. It's astounding how many people are getting recognition for calling one election - mainly Trafalgar and Rasmussen.

    Semi-related note - really getting into the predictit betting market now. Good times.

    when you call the biggest upset of the last 50 years it’s quite an accomplishment.

    The mainstream pollsters are toast if they get this election wrong.
    Mainstream pollsters? Haha, what? The point is every squirrel finds a nut.

    Rasmussen was also the least accurate in 2018 btw. And their 2016 call had Hillary winning the popular vote by 2 points. If Biden's leading the national popular vote by at least 7 he wins. Right now he's averaging somewhere around 8.5.
  • bootlegbootleg Posts: 681
    Guys, I don't think these polls are picking up shy Trump voters
    Never underestimate the secret hate vote.
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Posts: 48,845
    Anybody listen to The Political Trade podcast? https://luckboxmagazine.com/tpt/

    They had the guy from Trafalgar on recently. It's astounding how many people are getting recognition for calling one election - mainly Trafalgar and Rasmussen.

    Semi-related note - really getting into the predictit betting market now. Good times.

    when you call the biggest upset of the last 50 years it’s quite an accomplishment.

    The mainstream pollsters are toast if they get this election wrong.
    Mainstream pollsters? Haha, what? The point is every squirrel finds a nut.

    Rasmussen was also the least accurate in 2018 btw. And their 2016 call had Hillary winning the popular vote by 2 points. If Biden's leading the national popular vote by at least 7 he wins. Right now he's averaging somewhere around 8.5.
    Even Rasmussen today has Biden up 12
    www.myspace.com
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 29,590
    edited October 2020
    Anybody listen to The Political Trade podcast? https://luckboxmagazine.com/tpt/

    They had the guy from Trafalgar on recently. It's astounding how many people are getting recognition for calling one election - mainly Trafalgar and Rasmussen.

    Semi-related note - really getting into the predictit betting market now. Good times.

    when you call the biggest upset of the last 50 years it’s quite an accomplishment.

    The mainstream pollsters are toast if they get this election wrong.
    Mainstream pollsters? Haha, what? The point is every squirrel finds a nut.

    Rasmussen was also the least accurate in 2018 btw. And their 2016 call had Hillary winning the popular vote by 2 points. If Biden's leading the national popular vote by at least 7 he wins. Right now he's averaging somewhere around 8.5.
    Even Rasmussen today has Biden up 12
    There's probably a bit of non response bias.  That can happen after a big partisan event.  Some people on the side that got hurt don't want to talk. Pollsters will take that into account and adjust but you don't know if you got the numbers right.  I would think the numbers come back down.  No way does Biden win 57% or whatever.  Naturally right center people will drift back after some better news.   But I still think there's a real lasting bump. 
  • PJNBPJNB Posts: 13,433
    538 now has odds at 84% Biden 16% Trump, and Trumps odds have been dropping about a point a day.

    Their electoral prediction is currently 343 to 195, and they say Biden is likely to even go above that.
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