To get a true estimate of undecideds (The major difference between 2016 and 20), pollsters would need to know who is showing up by demographic and total voter turnout, which are stats they always seemed to be surprised by after elections.
otherwise, I’ll just leave this here in light of all the very pro Biden polling this week,
I mean it's been pro-Biden polling since like April.
I think this is to get caught up in one poll and ingest data in a way to fit a certain story. Again, I come back to 538 because they put all the polls through the meat grinder. Silver, by Election Day Eve, had Clinton at 3.9 in PA, 5.3 in WI, 4.2 in MI, 0.6 in FL for margin of popular vote win - those all are within or very close to the MOE. Plus, there was a 3rd party candidate on the ballot that got a sizable chunk of the electorate. That's not the case this time. So we'll have to wait to Election Day Eve. Biden is well outside of the MOE in all those states, sans FL. If that is still like that at the same time on November 2nd then this thing's over.
Only thing that could possibly save Trump right now is a massive, massive covid relief spending bill and it looks like he's too stupid to do that.
I posted the aggregate RCP swing state polling comparing 2016 to now. In MI WI PA, Clinton had bigger leads than Biden.
I am not saying Biden is likely to lose, but it seems pollsters and 538 may not be hedging against their ability to accurately project turnout and demographics.
I posted the aggregate RCP swing state polling comparing 2016 to now. In MI WI PA, Clinton had bigger leads than Biden.
I am not saying Biden is likely to lose, but it seems pollsters and 538 may not be hedging against their ability to accurately project turnout and demographics.
I'm pretty sure that 538 addressed those differences in their formula.
Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago 2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy 2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE) 2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston 2020: Oakland, Oakland:2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana 2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville 2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
I posted the aggregate RCP swing state polling comparing 2016 to now. In MI WI PA, Clinton had bigger leads than Biden.
I am not saying Biden is likely to lose, but it seems pollsters and 538 may not be hedging against their ability to accurately project turnout and demographics.
But I think they are - if anything that tells me the overall models have been refined and improved. If the leads/margins are less it could be because they are more accurate. Which makes sense, too, because if this dipshit handled everything, since like February, 10% better I think he'd win.
How is not allowing Obama a nominee and then railroading in the haindmaids tale not court packing?
Ding ding ding.
i cannot believe ,la didn’t say this!
There is also those 3000 Federal Judges that Trump always brags about pushing through.
As far as court-packing. Im all for it. If we are going to play a yo-yo game of opinionated judges who are basically highly educated political operatives... a 9-judge panel with lifetime appointments is silly and dangerous. You get a fool like Trump in there (losing the pop vote) and by the stroke of luck and circumstance, he gets to sit 3 young-ish judges for life.
With more, the effects of that kind of thing will be diminished. There will be more points of view. Someone like Ginsburg wont feel a desperate need to hang on to her death bed.
I like the idea of 18-year appointments too. That is plenty. That would also give the public tangible targets for election choices.
How is not allowing Obama a nominee and then railroading in the haindmaids tale not court packing?
Ding ding ding.
i cannot believe ,la didn’t say this!
There is also those 3000 Federal Judges that Trump always brags about pushing through.
As far as court-packing. Im all for it. If we are going to play a yo-yo game of opinionated judges who are basically highly educated political operatives... a 9-judge panel with lifetime appointments is silly and dangerous. You get a fool like Trump in there (losing the pop vote) and by the stroke of luck and circumstance, he gets to sit 3 young-ish judges for life.
With more, the effects of that kind of thing will be diminished. There will be more points of view. Someone like Ginsburg wont feel a desperate need to hang on to her death bed.
I like the idea of 18-year appointments too. That is plenty. That would also give the public tangible targets for election choices.
I agree on the 18 year terms. If every 2 years a justice must retire, each presidential term would have two appointments, and these rule manipulation games we get now would not lead to a 6-3 stacked court like the one we are about to have.
But this will only occur if there is a constitutional amendment, which is never happening in the current climate.
Which is why I support Dems packing the Court. This could get the Rs to the table to negotiate on Court term limits.
In the interim, we desperately need DC statehood with 51 votes. Those 2 seats in the senate would be critically important and the DC residents deserve representation in the Senate and a voice on the Court.
How is not allowing Obama a nominee and then railroading in the haindmaids tale not court packing?
Ding ding ding.
i cannot believe ,la didn’t say this!
There is also those 3000 Federal Judges that Trump always brags about pushing through.
As far as court-packing. Im all for it. If we are going to play a yo-yo game of opinionated judges who are basically highly educated political operatives... a 9-judge panel with lifetime appointments is silly and dangerous. You get a fool like Trump in there (losing the pop vote) and by the stroke of luck and circumstance, he gets to sit 3 young-ish judges for life.
With more, the effects of that kind of thing will be diminished. There will be more points of view. Someone like Ginsburg wont feel a desperate need to hang on to her death bed.
I like the idea of 18-year appointments too. That is plenty. That would also give the public tangible targets for election choices.
I agree on the 18 year terms. If every 2 years a justice must retire, each presidential term would have two appointments, and these rule manipulation games we get now would not lead to a 6-3 stacked court like the one we are about to have.
But this will only occur if there is a constitutional amendment, which is never happening in the current climate.
Which is why I support Dems packing the Court. This could get the Rs to the table to negotiate on Court term limits.
In the interim, we desperately need DC statehood with 51 votes. Those 2 seats in the senate would be critically important and the DC residents deserve representation in the Senate and a voice on the Court.
what is the reason DC isn't a state in the first place? we don't learn this in canadian schools (at least not mine). i just read a short article on it and it really doesn't seem to make much sense to me
How is not allowing Obama a nominee and then railroading in the haindmaids tale not court packing?
Ding ding ding.
i cannot believe ,la didn’t say this!
There is also those 3000 Federal Judges that Trump always brags about pushing through.
As far as court-packing. Im all for it. If we are going to play a yo-yo game of opinionated judges who are basically highly educated political operatives... a 9-judge panel with lifetime appointments is silly and dangerous. You get a fool like Trump in there (losing the pop vote) and by the stroke of luck and circumstance, he gets to sit 3 young-ish judges for life.
With more, the effects of that kind of thing will be diminished. There will be more points of view. Someone like Ginsburg wont feel a desperate need to hang on to her death bed.
I like the idea of 18-year appointments too. That is plenty. That would also give the public tangible targets for election choices.
I agree on the 18 year terms. If every 2 years a justice must retire, each presidential term would have two appointments, and these rule manipulation games we get now would not lead to a 6-3 stacked court like the one we are about to have.
But this will only occur if there is a constitutional amendment, which is never happening in the current climate.
Which is why I support Dems packing the Court. This could get the Rs to the table to negotiate on Court term limits.
In the interim, we desperately need DC statehood with 51 votes. Those 2 seats in the senate would be critically important and the DC residents deserve representation in the Senate and a voice on the Court.
what is the reason DC isn't a state in the first place? we don't learn this in canadian schools (at least not mine). i just read a short article on it and it really doesn't seem to make much sense to me
Browse the Constitution Annotated
Article I
Section 8
Clause 17
To exercise exclusive Legislation in all Cases whatsoever, over such District (not exceeding ten Miles square) as may, by Cession of particular States, and the Acceptance of Congress, become the Seat of Government of the United States, and to exercise like Authority over all Places purchased by the Consent of the Legislature of the State in which the Same shall be, for the Erection of Forts, Magazines, Arsenals, dock-Yards, and other needful Buildings;–And
.....
Since the constitution says not to exceed ten square miles, it is widely believed they could draw a much smaller district around the white housing, congress and court and allow DC to become a state where most of the popular lives.
I posted the aggregate RCP swing state polling comparing 2016 to now. In MI WI PA, Clinton had bigger leads than Biden.
I am not saying Biden is likely to lose, but it seems pollsters and 538 may not be hedging against their ability to accurately project turnout and demographics.
But I think they are - if anything that tells me the overall models have been refined and improved. If the leads/margins are less it could be because they are more accurate. Which makes sense, too, because if this dipshit handled everything, since like February, 10% better I think he'd win.
I am reading on the 538 subreddit many commenters believe most pollsters are not asking about education. If that’s true, it emboldens my skepticism of the accuracy of state polling. NCWs are trumps secret sauce, the reason pollsters embarrassed themselves in 2016, and without even asking the question, there is no way to project if they are accurately sampling.
Also, trump had quite a few decent polls Friday and early Saturday posted on RCP. For example, today a local GA pollster has Perdue leading with 47% in the senate race And the same poll has trump at 49%.
So with all the absurd crap trump has gone thru in the last 2 weeks, trump is running stronger than the senior republican senator of Georgia in the same poll. I’d pay attention to that. GA is supposed to be the next red state to turn purple, and trump is polling better than the senior senator.
I posted the aggregate RCP swing state polling comparing 2016 to now. In MI WI PA, Clinton had bigger leads than Biden.
I am not saying Biden is likely to lose, but it seems pollsters and 538 may not be hedging against their ability to accurately project turnout and demographics.
But I think they are - if anything that tells me the overall models have been refined and improved. If the leads/margins are less it could be because they are more accurate. Which makes sense, too, because if this dipshit handled everything, since like February, 10% better I think he'd win.
I am reading on the 538 subreddit many commenters believe most pollsters are not asking about education. If that’s true, it emboldens my skepticism of the accuracy of state polling. NCWs are trumps secret sauce, the reason pollsters embarrassed themselves in 2016, and without even asking the question, there is no way to project if they are accurately sampling.
Also, trump had quite a few decent polls Friday and early Saturday posted on RCP. For example, today a local GA pollster has Perdue leading with 47% in the senate race And the same poll has trump at 49%.
So with all the absurd crap trump has gone thru in the last 2 weeks, trump is running stronger than the senior republican senator of Georgia in the same poll. I’d pay attention to that. GA is supposed to be the next red state to turn purple, and trump is polling better than the senior senator.
Saw a guy from Pew explain some of this but then he said Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat was down amongst NCW and seniors, particularly seniors. He’s down 27 points with seniors and that’s based on polling from last week. He carried them by 7% in 2016. And we all know that seniors vote. Basically the Pew guy said the only demo Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat had an advantage over Sleepy Woke Joe Basement Biden was White, repub men. For what that’s worth. 344 EV for Sleepy Woke Joe Basement Biden.
The table in this article is chock full of data but it doesn’t represent what I heard. The graphic they used that I was referencing was a side by side blue/red bar graph comparison of 2016 and last week. The length and thickness of the blue in almost every demo this time around was significant. But I can’t seem to find it.
I posted the aggregate RCP swing state polling comparing 2016 to now. In MI WI PA, Clinton had bigger leads than Biden.
I am not saying Biden is likely to lose, but it seems pollsters and 538 may not be hedging against their ability to accurately project turnout and demographics.
But I think they are - if anything that tells me the overall models have been refined and improved. If the leads/margins are less it could be because they are more accurate. Which makes sense, too, because if this dipshit handled everything, since like February, 10% better I think he'd win.
I am reading on the 538 subreddit many commenters believe most pollsters are not asking about education. If that’s true, it emboldens my skepticism of the accuracy of state polling. NCWs are trumps secret sauce, the reason pollsters embarrassed themselves in 2016, and without even asking the question, there is no way to project if they are accurately sampling.
Also, trump had quite a few decent polls Friday and early Saturday posted on RCP. For example, today a local GA pollster has Perdue leading with 47% in the senate race And the same poll has trump at 49%.
So with all the absurd crap trump has gone thru in the last 2 weeks, trump is running stronger than the senior republican senator of Georgia in the same poll. I’d pay attention to that. GA is supposed to be the next red state to turn purple, and trump is polling better than the senior senator.
GA and TX are still dreams. They will float back to where they should be, but with smaller margins.
Yeah I mean Arizona is that state, not GA. I'd even say TX is closer than GA, but both are pipe dreams this year I think. I'd be slightly shocked if AZ doesn't flip.
From Sleepy Woke Joe Basement Biden’s text. He’s fighting like he’s down 13.
Biden-Harris HQ: You need to see Joe's recent polling in battleground states:
AZ: +4 points
FL: +3 points
MI: +6 points
NC: +2 points
PA: +9 points
Joe and Kamala are depending on your support NOW to keep up the momentum in this final month of the campaign. Rush a donation today to help get out the vote in these crucial final weeks: http://m.txtjoe.co/eq/7v7mh6
WhatYouTaughtMe
I have no idea what's going on right now! Posts: 4,957
AZ is not flipping. I don't care what the polls say. I live in the biggest metro area in the state. It's openly Trump everywhere. If I mentioned Biden anywhere I go, I'd be laughed out of the room. Don't listen to the polls, don't assume anything is in the bag. It really feels like nothing was learned from 2016. People need to get out and vote. Turnout is the only way Biden wins this election. I believe what I see with my own eyes, and I know two people who are voting Biden. Two. Yeah it's a small sample size, but two. That's it. I really hope after the election that someone can quote this and make me eat crow. I'd gladly eat a dozen of them if it means that Mango Mussolini gets sent packing. I'm not hopeful.
AZ is not flipping. I don't care what the polls say. I live in the biggest metro area in the state. It's openly Trump everywhere. If I mentioned Biden anywhere I go, I'd be laughed out of the room. Don't listen to the polls, don't assume anything is in the bag. It really feels like nothing was learned from 2016. People need to get out and vote. Turnout is the only way Biden wins this election. I believe what I see with my own eyes, and I know two people who are voting Biden. Two. Yeah it's a small sample size, but two. That's it. I really hope after the election that someone can quote this and make me eat crow. I'd gladly eat a dozen of them if it means that Mango Mussolini gets sent packing. I'm not hopeful.
Why should they vote if Arizona isn't flipping?
Do you think Kelly is going to lose as well, or do you think ticket splitting is happening?
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WhatYouTaughtMe
I have no idea what's going on right now! Posts: 4,957
AZ is not flipping. I don't care what the polls say. I live in the biggest metro area in the state. It's openly Trump everywhere. If I mentioned Biden anywhere I go, I'd be laughed out of the room. Don't listen to the polls, don't assume anything is in the bag. It really feels like nothing was learned from 2016. People need to get out and vote. Turnout is the only way Biden wins this election. I believe what I see with my own eyes, and I know two people who are voting Biden. Two. Yeah it's a small sample size, but two. That's it. I really hope after the election that someone can quote this and make me eat crow. I'd gladly eat a dozen of them if it means that Mango Mussolini gets sent packing. I'm not hopeful.
Why should they vote if Arizona isn't flipping?
Do you think Kelly is going to lose as well, or do you think ticket splitting is happening?
I'm talking on the national level. Don't let the states Biden should win, slip away by thinking he has it in the bag. I have very limited knowledge of polling and I've never answered a question from anyone asking me who I'm voting for. I can only go by what I see with my own eyes. Between my two jobs I probably come in contact with 50-100 people a day that I've never met before. All I see are maga hats, trump flags and bumper stickers. It's very openly Trump here. I remember having this same conversation in 2016 with a friend. I hope I'm wrong. I really do.
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WhatYouTaughtMe
I have no idea what's going on right now! Posts: 4,957
And yes, I think Kelly will lose.
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WhatYouTaughtMe
I have no idea what's going on right now! Posts: 4,957
I understand he's thumping her in the polls, but I just don't believe anything I read or see on tv these days. I just know that I know two people. Again, two. That I could see voting for him as well. It just doesn't make any sense to me.
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WhatYouTaughtMe
I have no idea what's going on right now! Posts: 4,957
edited October 2020
Anyway. This thread is about polling data. Enough hijacking for me. I want to believe. I really do, but I remember in the beginning, dismissing outright anyone who thought Trump had a chance in 2016. It's a different world. I just don't think polls mean what they used to.
Anyway. This thread is about polling data. Enough hijacking for me. I want to believe. I really do, but I remember in the beginning, dismissing outright anyone who thought Trump had a chance in 2016. It's a different world. I just don't think polls mean what they used to.
McSally already lost to an openly gay woman statewide. I don't know how she beats an astronaut.
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WhatYouTaughtMe
I have no idea what's going on right now! Posts: 4,957
Anyway. This thread is about polling data. Enough hijacking for me. I want to believe. I really do, but I remember in the beginning, dismissing outright anyone who thought Trump had a chance in 2016. It's a different world. I just don't think polls mean what they used to.
McSally already lost to an openly gay woman statewide. I don't know how she beats an astronaut.
Fair enough. I just don't see how any Trump supporter will vote democrat. Can you at least understand my confusion? I'm only going with what I see with my own eyes. I'm far from a political expert. None of this makes any fucking sense to me. I guess maybe I can be hopeful all the Biden supporters out here are keeping their mouths shut? I'm just incredibly saddened by what I see everyday. You can't even have an objective conversation with most trump supporters out here. Again, I really hope I'm wrong and will gladly take any amount of ridicule for these thoughts. If it means Trump loses. It will also be nice if recreational weed passes.
Anyway. This thread is about polling data. Enough hijacking for me. I want to believe. I really do, but I remember in the beginning, dismissing outright anyone who thought Trump had a chance in 2016. It's a different world. I just don't think polls mean what they used to.
McSally already lost to an openly gay woman statewide. I don't know how she beats an astronaut.
Fair enough. I just don't see how any Trump supporter will vote democrat. Can you at least understand my confusion? I'm only going with what I see with my own eyes. I'm far from a political expert. None of this makes any fucking sense to me. I guess maybe I can be hopeful all the Biden supporters out here are keeping their mouths shut? I'm just incredibly saddened by what I see everyday. You can't even have an objective conversation with most trump supporters out here. Again, I really hope I'm wrong and will gladly take any amount of ridicule for these thoughts. If it means Trump loses. It will also be nice if recreational weed passes.
Do you live in the Scottsdale area? I know a lot of people closer to the city, Chandler, etc, and there are plenty of D's there.. Flagstaff is D, so is Tucson if I'm not mistaken. Whoever wins Maricopa, wins AZ.
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WhatYouTaughtMe
I have no idea what's going on right now! Posts: 4,957
Anyway. This thread is about polling data. Enough hijacking for me. I want to believe. I really do, but I remember in the beginning, dismissing outright anyone who thought Trump had a chance in 2016. It's a different world. I just don't think polls mean what they used to.
McSally already lost to an openly gay woman statewide. I don't know how she beats an astronaut.
Fair enough. I just don't see how any Trump supporter will vote democrat. Can you at least understand my confusion? I'm only going with what I see with my own eyes. I'm far from a political expert. None of this makes any fucking sense to me. I guess maybe I can be hopeful all the Biden supporters out here are keeping their mouths shut? I'm just incredibly saddened by what I see everyday. You can't even have an objective conversation with most trump supporters out here. Again, I really hope I'm wrong and will gladly take any amount of ridicule for these thoughts. If it means Trump loses. It will also be nice if recreational weed passes.
Do you live in the Scottsdale area? I know a lot of people closer to the city, Chandler, etc, and there are plenty of D's there.. Flagstaff is D, so is Tucson if I'm not mistaken. Whoever wins Maricopa, wins AZ.
Glendale/Peoria area. I want to believe. I really do.
Comments
otherwise, I’ll just leave this here in light of all the very pro Biden polling this week,
I think this is to get caught up in one poll and ingest data in a way to fit a certain story. Again, I come back to 538 because they put all the polls through the meat grinder. Silver, by Election Day Eve, had Clinton at 3.9 in PA, 5.3 in WI, 4.2 in MI, 0.6 in FL for margin of popular vote win - those all are within or very close to the MOE. Plus, there was a 3rd party candidate on the ballot that got a sizable chunk of the electorate. That's not the case this time. So we'll have to wait to Election Day Eve. Biden is well outside of the MOE in all those states, sans FL. If that is still like that at the same time on November 2nd then this thing's over.
Only thing that could possibly save Trump right now is a massive, massive covid relief spending bill and it looks like he's too stupid to do that.
I am not saying Biden is likely to lose, but it seems pollsters and 538 may not be hedging against their ability to accurately project turnout and demographics.
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
i cannot believe ,la didn’t say this!
www.headstonesband.com
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
As far as court-packing. Im all for it. If we are going to play a yo-yo game of opinionated judges who are basically highly educated political operatives... a 9-judge panel with lifetime appointments is silly and dangerous. You get a fool like Trump in there (losing the pop vote) and by the stroke of luck and circumstance, he gets to sit 3 young-ish judges for life.
With more, the effects of that kind of thing will be diminished. There will be more points of view. Someone like Ginsburg wont feel a desperate need to hang on to her death bed.
I like the idea of 18-year appointments too. That is plenty. That would also give the public tangible targets for election choices.
But this will only occur if there is a constitutional amendment, which is never happening in the current climate.
Which is why I support Dems packing the Court. This could get the Rs to the table to negotiate on Court term limits.
In the interim, we desperately need DC statehood with 51 votes. Those 2 seats in the senate would be critically important and the DC residents deserve representation in the Senate and a voice on the Court.
www.headstonesband.com
Browse the Constitution Annotated
Article I
Section 8- Clause 17
To exercise exclusive Legislation in all Cases whatsoever, over such District (not exceeding ten Miles square) as may, by Cession of particular States, and the Acceptance of Congress, become the Seat of Government of the United States, and to exercise like Authority over all Places purchased by the Consent of the Legislature of the State in which the Same shall be, for the Erection of Forts, Magazines, Arsenals, dock-Yards, and other needful Buildings;–And
.....
Since the constitution says not to exceed ten square miles, it is widely believed they could draw a much smaller district around the white housing, congress and court and allow DC to become a state where most of the popular lives.
Also, trump had quite a few decent polls Friday and early Saturday posted on RCP. For example, today a local GA pollster has Perdue leading with 47% in the senate race And the same poll has trump at 49%.
https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2020/08/18/a-resource-for-state-preelection-polling/
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/10/09/amid-campaign-turmoil-biden-holds-wide-leads-on-coronavirus-unifying-the-country/
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
Do you think Kelly is going to lose as well, or do you think ticket splitting is happening?