Nate Silver 538
Comments
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The Juggler said:Gern Blansten said:HughFreakingDillon said:Gern Blansten said:Stacking the court will come up at the town hall or third debate though...bet on it. They have an answer planned for sure.
"we'll do what we have to do within the bounds of the constitution to make sure women's right to health care and their own bodies stays protected"?
"Look, folks, number 1: We live in a country where now 5 of the 9 justices on the supreme court have been decided by presidents who have not received the majority of support of the American people. I don't know about you, but something about that just seems off to me. Number 2: as far as what we are going to do, look folks, I don't think what is happening right now is a fair comparison verses what happened in 2016. Barrack had almost a full year left in his term. To not even allow his nominee the consideration was a slap in the face to our democracy. Now, four years later, we have less than 6 weeks to go, millions of ballots have already been cast. Here's the deal: I think it would be prudent for those folks' voices to be heard instead of ramming this thing through. Chuck Schumer has said all options are on the table. I'm not sure what the answer is at this point, but since folks have already started to vote and given how close we are to the election, I think we should let the American people CONTINUE to decide who gets to make this enormous decision."It's a hopeless situation...0 -
I thought Biden was shaky on the supreme court bit, and also missed a grand opportunity with the Pandemic topic. His administration left a literal 'playbook' to mitigate such a disaster and Trump couldnt be bothered with it.0
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The Juggler said:Gern Blansten said:HughFreakingDillon said:Gern Blansten said:Stacking the court will come up at the town hall or third debate though...bet on it. They have an answer planned for sure.
"we'll do what we have to do within the bounds of the constitution to make sure women's right to health care and their own bodies stays protected"?
"Look, folks, number 1: We live in a country where now 5 of the 9 justices on the supreme court have been decided by presidents who have not received the majority of support of the American people.
Trump picking three justices is the consequence of a life-long politician failing to defeat a game-show host. It's too bad. He was full of shit during nearly the entire debate last night, but I agreed with that one point: He wasn't elected for three years. He's the president until Jan. 20, 2020 at like noon or whenever, so he absolutely should nominate someone for the Supreme Court. Are the republicans hypocrites for complaining about Obama's appointment with ten months to go, when Trump has only four months to go? Of course they are. Big time. And this is why they get ahead. They say "fuck you," we're doing what we want. I don't like the idea of Biden adding justices to "pack the court," but at least that would be the democrats saying "fuck you, we're doing what we want." Eye for an eye I guess.
2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2, 2021: Sea. Hear. Now. 2022: Camden, 2024: Philly 2, 2025: Pittsburgh 1
Pearl Jam bootlegs:
http://wegotshit.blogspot.com0 -
mrussel1 said:Ledbetterman10 said:tbergs said:No person could "debate" Trump because he doesn't debate. He has no desire to and never will. He enjoys spewing bullshit at his followers because they eat it up so he uses that same strategy during the debate since he knows it's to his advantage. While Biden may have talked around a few questions, which happens in every debate when a divisive topic is brought up, he did give straight answers on the majority of questions he was asked. Sort through all of the shouting, interruptions and personal attacks from Trump and you are left with no real answers on any question he was asked, which is why chaos is where he reigns.He said “vote for me.”That answered the question to my satisfaction.0
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MayDay10 said:I thought Biden was shaky on the supreme court bit, and also missed a grand opportunity with the Pandemic topic. His administration left a literal 'playbook' to mitigate such a disaster and Trump couldnt be bothered with it.By The Time They Figure Out What Went Wrong, We'll Be Sitting On A Beach, Earning Twenty Percent.0
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tbergs said:The Juggler said:Gern Blansten said:HughFreakingDillon said:Gern Blansten said:Stacking the court will come up at the town hall or third debate though...bet on it. They have an answer planned for sure.
"we'll do what we have to do within the bounds of the constitution to make sure women's right to health care and their own bodies stays protected"?
"Look, folks, number 1: We live in a country where now 5 of the 9 justices on the supreme court have been decided by presidents who have not received the majority of support of the American people. I don't know about you, but something about that just seems off to me. Number 2: as far as what we are going to do, look folks, I don't think what is happening right now is a fair comparison verses what happened in 2016. Barrack had almost a full year left in his term. To not even allow his nominee the consideration was a slap in the face to our democracy. Now, four years later, we have less than 6 weeks to go, millions of ballots have already been cast. Here's the deal: I think it would be prudent for those folks' voices to be heard instead of ramming this thing through. Chuck Schumer has said all options are on the table. I'm not sure what the answer is at this point, but since folks have already started to vote and given how close we are to the election, I think we should let the American people CONTINUE to decide who gets to make this enormous decision."www.myspace.com0 -
Ledbetterman10 said:The Juggler said:Gern Blansten said:HughFreakingDillon said:Gern Blansten said:Stacking the court will come up at the town hall or third debate though...bet on it. They have an answer planned for sure.
"we'll do what we have to do within the bounds of the constitution to make sure women's right to health care and their own bodies stays protected"?
"Look, folks, number 1: We live in a country where now 5 of the 9 justices on the supreme court have been decided by presidents who have not received the majority of support of the American people.
Trump picking three justices is the consequence of a life-long politician failing to defeat a game-show host. It's too bad. He was full of shit during nearly the entire debate last night, but I agreed with that one point: He wasn't elected for three years. He's the president until Jan. 20, 2020 at like noon or whenever, so he absolutely should nominate someone for the Supreme Court. Are the republicans hypocrites for complaining about Obama's appointment with ten months to go, when Trump has only four months to go? Of course they are. Big time. And this is why they get ahead. They say "fuck you," we're doing what we want. I don't like the idea of Biden adding justices to "pack the court," but at least that would be the democrats saying "fuck you, we're doing what we want." Eye for an eye I guess.
For the record, I have no problem either with Trump nominating someone. If he wins, they can vote to confirm the next day. But yes, there is a huge difference between 6 weeks and 10 months, or whatever it was in '16. And the majority of the country agrees with that so it is a winning argument for Biden.
www.myspace.com0 -
Lerxst1992 said:The Juggler said:Gern Blansten said:HughFreakingDillon said:Gern Blansten said:Stacking the court will come up at the town hall or third debate though...bet on it. They have an answer planned for sure.
"we'll do what we have to do within the bounds of the constitution to make sure women's right to health care and their own bodies stays protected"?
"Look, folks, number 1: We live in a country where now 5 of the 9 justices on the supreme court have been decided by presidents who have not received the majority of support of the American people. I don't know about you, but something about that just seems off to me. Number 2: as far as what we are going to do, look folks, I don't think what is happening right now is a fair comparison verses what happened in 2016. Barrack had almost a full year left in his term. To not even allow his nominee the consideration was a slap in the face to our democracy. Now, four years later, we have less than 6 weeks to go, millions of ballots have already been cast. Here's the deal: I think it would be prudent for those folks' voices to be heard instead of ramming this thing through. Chuck Schumer has said all options are on the table. I'm not sure what the answer is at this point, but since folks have already started to vote and given how close we are to the election, I think we should let the American people CONTINUE to decide who gets to make this enormous decision."Trump would have shouted over Biden 2112 times before he could get a statement like that out, as well written and thought out as it is.
Unfortunately trump proved there is an element in our culture that is open to aggressive and false attacks. It doesn’t have to be “that horrible lady.” Now it’s that “**.”** too divisive to be posted on this forum.www.myspace.com0 -
The Juggler said:Ledbetterman10 said:The Juggler said:Gern Blansten said:HughFreakingDillon said:Gern Blansten said:Stacking the court will come up at the town hall or third debate though...bet on it. They have an answer planned for sure.
"we'll do what we have to do within the bounds of the constitution to make sure women's right to health care and their own bodies stays protected"?
"Look, folks, number 1: We live in a country where now 5 of the 9 justices on the supreme court have been decided by presidents who have not received the majority of support of the American people.
Trump picking three justices is the consequence of a life-long politician failing to defeat a game-show host. It's too bad. He was full of shit during nearly the entire debate last night, but I agreed with that one point: He wasn't elected for three years. He's the president until Jan. 20, 2020 at like noon or whenever, so he absolutely should nominate someone for the Supreme Court. Are the republicans hypocrites for complaining about Obama's appointment with ten months to go, when Trump has only four months to go? Of course they are. Big time. And this is why they get ahead. They say "fuck you," we're doing what we want. I don't like the idea of Biden adding justices to "pack the court," but at least that would be the democrats saying "fuck you, we're doing what we want." Eye for an eye I guess.
For the record, I have no problem either with Trump nominating someone. If he wins, they can vote to confirm the next day. But yes, there is a huge difference between 6 weeks and 10 months, or whatever it was in '16. And the majority of the country agrees with that so it is a winning argument for Biden.
I've always felt a good system in lieu of a full-on popular vote would be allocating each state's electors based on the percentage of the state you win. Like, Trump won Pennsylvania by a percentage point or two in 2016, why should he get every elector for that? It'd give canidates a reason to campaign in non-swing states. Sure Hillary couldn't win Texas outright (Biden is still within the margin of error though I think), but maybe she could pick up a few counties and get some electors for it. Same with Trump in California. When Bush won in 2004, I joked, "I can't believe the leader of the country is chosen by people that willfully cheer for the Bengals and Browns." Give everyone a voice. Either by my proposal (that would never happen), or a popular vote.
2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2, 2021: Sea. Hear. Now. 2022: Camden, 2024: Philly 2, 2025: Pittsburgh 1
Pearl Jam bootlegs:
http://wegotshit.blogspot.com0 -
Ledbetterman10 said:The Juggler said:Ledbetterman10 said:The Juggler said:Gern Blansten said:HughFreakingDillon said:Gern Blansten said:Stacking the court will come up at the town hall or third debate though...bet on it. They have an answer planned for sure.
"we'll do what we have to do within the bounds of the constitution to make sure women's right to health care and their own bodies stays protected"?
"Look, folks, number 1: We live in a country where now 5 of the 9 justices on the supreme court have been decided by presidents who have not received the majority of support of the American people.
Trump picking three justices is the consequence of a life-long politician failing to defeat a game-show host. It's too bad. He was full of shit during nearly the entire debate last night, but I agreed with that one point: He wasn't elected for three years. He's the president until Jan. 20, 2020 at like noon or whenever, so he absolutely should nominate someone for the Supreme Court. Are the republicans hypocrites for complaining about Obama's appointment with ten months to go, when Trump has only four months to go? Of course they are. Big time. And this is why they get ahead. They say "fuck you," we're doing what we want. I don't like the idea of Biden adding justices to "pack the court," but at least that would be the democrats saying "fuck you, we're doing what we want." Eye for an eye I guess.
For the record, I have no problem either with Trump nominating someone. If he wins, they can vote to confirm the next day. But yes, there is a huge difference between 6 weeks and 10 months, or whatever it was in '16. And the majority of the country agrees with that so it is a winning argument for Biden.
I've always felt a good system in lieu of a full-on popular vote would be allocating each state's electors based on the percentage of the state you win. Like, Trump won Pennsylvania by a percentage point or two in 2016, why should he get every elector for that? It'd give canidates a reason to campaign in non-swing states. Sure Hillary couldn't win Texas outright (Biden is still within the margin of error though I think), but maybe she could pick up a few counties and get some electors for it. Same with Trump in California. When Bush won in 2004, I joked, "I can't believe the leader of the country is chosen by people that willfully cheer for the Bengals and Browns." Give everyone a voice. Either by my proposal (that would never happen), or a popular vote.
https://www.270towin.com/alternative-electoral-college-allocation-methods/
Bush and Trump still would've won under this but it would have been much closer. And you can't really go off of that since the whole landscape of the election would be altered as far as where they campaign.
Regarding Texas, yeah...instead of Trump getting all 38 electoral votes, it would've been 20-17. Conversely, California would've been an HRC win by 34-18 instead of 55-0. Montana would've been 2-1 instead 3-0. Every state would matter instead of a handful.
Would be much better this way.Post edited by The Juggler onwww.myspace.com0 -
static111 said:Go Beavers said:Hi! said:static111 said:Hi! said:0
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Good article today on the state of the race and if trump tries electoral shenanigans from Nate ,
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-chances-are-dwindling-that-could-make-him-dangerous/
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Lerxst1992 said:Good article today on the state of the race and if trump tries electoral shenanigans from Nate ,
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-chances-are-dwindling-that-could-make-him-dangerous/0 -
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80% odds of winning right now. Highest at any point this year. 13% higher than a month ago.www.myspace.com0
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Weird and not-so-weird possibilities
The chances that these situations will crop up
Trump wins the popular voteRegardless of whether he wins the Electoral College 10 in 100 Biden wins the popular voteRegardless of whether he wins the Electoral College 90 in 100 Trump wins more than 50% of the popular voteRegardless of whether he wins the Electoral College 7 in 100 Biden wins more than 50% of the popular voteRegardless of whether he wins the Electoral College 85 in 100 Trump wins in a landslideDefined as winning the popular vote by a double-digit margin <1 in 100 Biden wins in a landslideDefined as winning the popular vote by a double-digit margin 29 in 100 Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College <1 in 100 Biden wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College 10 in 100 No one wins the Electoral CollegeNo candidate gets 270 electoral votes and Congress decides the election <1 in 100 Trump wins at least one state that Clinton won in 2016 33 in 100 Biden wins at least one state that Trump won in 2016 92 in 100 The map stays exactly the same as it was in 2016Each candidate wins exactly the same states that his party won in 2016 <1 in 100 The election hinges on a recountCandidates are within half a percentage point in one or more decisive states 5 in 100 www.myspace.com0 -
I'm really surprised that it indicates only a 10% chance that Biden wins the popular vote and loses the EC. Assuming we still have two parties, that's probably going to be the standard for a while.
1995 Milwaukee 1998 Alpine, Alpine 2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston 2004 Boston, Boston 2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty) 2011 Alpine, Alpine
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2024 Napa, Wrigley, Wrigley0 -
The Juggler said:80% odds of winning right now. Highest at any point this year. 13% higher than a month ago.
He basically said that the odds go down/up as the election approaches because some of it is based on potential movement. For instance, Trump was 22% chance to win yesterday, but if the election was taking place yesterday, the probability of winning would be 9%. So the clock is ticking out and each day is lost opportunity and it gets tougher.0 -
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2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20
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