2024 US Election - Predictions

Spiritual_Chaos

Here is mine:

njhaley1

I wish I had the disposition to treat this like a March madness bracket. I'll just say that I'm cautiously optimistic we're not fucked. 

brianlux

Anybody got a couple Valium I could bum?

Lerxst1992

Spiritual_Chaos said:

Here is mine:

GA NC do not look promising at all. On this map that leaves the entire outcome to IA, and I would not put that much faith in that poll as KH was surprisingly ahead by three, but well under 50% - this close to Election Day not exactly an optimistic poll. WI should cover for IA however.


Trump can lock it up early with winnin three, GA NC PA. He looks strong in the first two, which IMO leaves it all up to PA and Josh bringing it home.

excellent topic SC.

lastexitlondon

brianlux said:

Anybody got a couple Valium I could bum?

I do. I don't think they will get there in time

njhaley1

I'm perplexed with AZ. This is the state that elected Sinema, Kelly, Hobbs, and seems to be poised to snub Lake yet again. We're clearly purple, and the reason for turning our noses against Trump and Lake haven't  changed, they've only intensified. Fair number of signs on public roadways, but around me I get a feeling it's the same jackass putting them up. No Reich parades this year, either.

But we're an independent lot, as evidenced by the 2020 outcomes across the ballot. 

brianlux

lastexitlondon said:

brianlux said:

Anybody got a couple Valium I could bum?

I do. I don't think they will get there in time

LOL, thank you , my friend! 

brianlux

njhaley1 said:

I'm perplexed with AZ. This is the state that elected Sinema, Kelly, Hobbs, and seems to be poised to snub Lake yet again. We're clearly purple, and the reason for turning our noses against Trump and Lake haven't  changed, they've only intensified. Fair number of signs on public roadways, but around me I get a feeling it's the same jackass putting them up. No Reich parades this year, either.

But we're an independent lot, as evidenced by the 2020 outcomes across the ballot. 

I often have wondered if AZ might someday turn toward Prudohian anarchy.  Probably a reflection of having read a lot of Edward Abbey and Charles Bowden.  In fact, I just started re-reading Abbey's Good News (third time) for if not inspiration, at least a little distraction.

mickeyrat

Lerxst1992 said:

Spiritual_Chaos said:

Here is mine:

GA NC do not look promising at all. On this map that leaves the entire outcome to IA, and I would not put that much faith in that poll as KH was surprisingly ahead by three, but well under 50% - this close to Election Day not exactly an optimistic poll. WI should cover for IA however.


Trump can lock it up early with winnin three, GA NC PA. He looks strong in the first two, which IMO leaves it all up to PA and Josh bringing it home.

excellent topic SC.

someone should tell the fuckstick campaign then. if nc is in the bag, why so much time there these past couple weeks?

Spiritual_Chaos

Put down money on Nevada also. So need to update.

The Juggler

mickeyrat said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Spiritual_Chaos said:

Here is mine:

GA NC do not look promising at all. On this map that leaves the entire outcome to IA, and I would not put that much faith in that poll as KH was surprisingly ahead by three, but well under 50% - this close to Election Day not exactly an optimistic poll. WI should cover for IA however.


Trump can lock it up early with winnin three, GA NC PA. He looks strong in the first two, which IMO leaves it all up to PA and Josh bringing it home.

excellent topic SC.

someone should tell the fuckstick campaign then. if nc is in the bag, why so much time there these past couple weeks?

NC is not in the bag. None of the swing states are.

Stein has a 15 point lead for governor. If that election plays out like that, I don't see how Trump doesn't get dragged down with the black nazi. 

Indifference

Trump 297-241

Tim Simmons

The Juggler

Fuck it.

I think pollsters have overestimated Trump this time around in their attempt to not underestimate him. I am also not buying that pre msg Trump surge that was bolstered by nonstop right leaning outfits flooding the zone, the way they did with their '22 mid term "red wave."

Gender gap will be huge and will benefit Harris. 
Puerto Ricans give Harris PA and the black Nazi drags Trump down with him in NC. GA is gravy. 

Lerxst1992

mickeyrat said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Spiritual_Chaos said:

Here is mine:

GA NC do not look promising at all. On this map that leaves the entire outcome to IA, and I would not put that much faith in that poll as KH was surprisingly ahead by three, but well under 50% - this close to Election Day not exactly an optimistic poll. WI should cover for IA however.


Trump can lock it up early with winnin three, GA NC PA. He looks strong in the first two, which IMO leaves it all up to PA and Josh bringing it home.

excellent topic SC.

someone should tell the fuckstick campaign then. if nc is in the bag, why so much time there these past couple weeks?

FS has been fully aware he can clinch with GA NC then PA. I said he looks strong (for a swing state) on the first two, not that it’s in the bag. Under this theory there are only three swing states that matter, that can guarantee a democratic loss.

Gern Blansten

I can see it being a Harris blow out or trump barely winning...I just don't know

darwinstheory

Gern Blansten said:

I can see it being a Harris blow out or trump barely winning...I just don't know

I'm right there with you. I feel like the seeds of doubt FS has been planting indicate that he knows it will be a blowout. 

Conversely, I cannot get 2016 out of my head....only the Cubs also won then. 

brianlux

These lines comes to my mind this morning:

Predicting a delay on landing

I predict I'll have a drink

-Paul Westerberg, "Portland"

gimmesometruth27

harris wins in a blowout. i have never been more confident in my life.

OnWis97

Indifference said:

Trump 297-241

That seems about right. The Dems tend to fumble close states and polls have shown that like 40% of people won't vote for a woman for president.

I think the Dems would have had a really good chance if Biden had announced in 2023 that he won't seek a second term, leading to an actual party nomination process. The criticism that she's never received more than a couple percent in a nominating process is valid.

gimmesometruth27

OnWis97 said:

Indifference said:

Trump 297-241

That seems about right. The Dems tend to fumble close states and polls have shown that like 40% of people won't vote for a woman for president.

I think the Dems would have had a really good chance if Biden had announced in 2023 that he won't seek a second term, leading to an actual party nomination process. The criticism that she's never received more than a couple percent in a nominating process is valid.

back then she had not been veep for 4 years, so that point is absolutely moot today.

Spiritual_Chaos

OnWis97 said:

Indifference said:

Trump 297-241

That seems about right. The Dems tend to fumble close states and polls have shown that like 40% of people won't vote for a woman for president.

I think the Dems would have had a really good chance if Biden had announced in 2023 that he won't seek a second term, leading to an actual party nomination process. The criticism that she's never received more than a couple percent in a nominating process is valid.

Who has really complained about it other than Trump on stage and his followers parroting it? 

Doesn't seem to have been a huge blowback, from what I've seen/heard?

But ofc it should have been Bernie OR WHY NOT OPRAH

Spiritual_Chaos

darwinstheory said:

Gern Blansten said:

I can see it being a Harris blow out or trump barely winning...I just don't know

I'm right there with you. I feel like the seeds of doubt FS has been planting indicate that he knows it will be a blowout. 

Conversely, I cannot get 2016 out of my head....only the Cubs also won then. 

Aren't the polls to damn close for it to be a blowout?


... at the same time I have put money down on it being a blowout. 

OnWis97

gimmesometruth27 said:

OnWis97 said:

Indifference said:

Trump 297-241

That seems about right. The Dems tend to fumble close states and polls have shown that like 40% of people won't vote for a woman for president.

I think the Dems would have had a really good chance if Biden had announced in 2023 that he won't seek a second term, leading to an actual party nomination process. The criticism that she's never received more than a couple percent in a nominating process is valid.

back then she had not been veep for 4 years, so that point is absolutely moot today.

I don't agree. There was no primary. I guess her poor showing in the primary is a bit of an extra icing on the cake but Biden's late drop out just sort of had the party shrugging and going "the VP I guess." 

Obviously, she'd have drawn more than a few percent under my preferred scenario (i.e., 2024 primaries). She may have even won. But we'll never know and the voters (Registered Dem voters) never had a say. Then again, they kinda didn't in 2016, either.

Spiritual_Chaos said:

OnWis97 said:

Indifference said:

Trump 297-241

That seems about right. The Dems tend to fumble close states and polls have shown that like 40% of people won't vote for a woman for president.

I think the Dems would have had a really good chance if Biden had announced in 2023 that he won't seek a second term, leading to an actual party nomination process. The criticism that she's never received more than a couple percent in a nominating process is valid.

Who has really complained about it other than Trump on stage and his followers parroting it? 

Doesn't seem to have been a huge blowback, from what I've seen/heard?

But ofc it should have been Bernie OR WHY NOT OPRAH

Hard to say how impactful it is. It's true that a lot of people who talk about it are people that wouldn't vote for a Dem under any circumstances. All this talk is just about either getting people off the couch on election day or grabbing the (unbelievably to this point) undecided voters.

The impact of that is probably greater than zero but not as great as Hillary's ignoring Wisconsin eight years ago.

The Juggler

darwinstheory said:

Gern Blansten said:

I can see it being a Harris blow out or trump barely winning...I just don't know

I'm right there with you. I feel like the seeds of doubt FS has been planting indicate that he knows it will be a blowout. 

Conversely, I cannot get 2016 out of my head....only the Cubs also won then. 

Who is FS?

The Juggler

Spiritual_Chaos said:

darwinstheory said:

Gern Blansten said:

I can see it being a Harris blow out or trump barely winning...I just don't know

I'm right there with you. I feel like the seeds of doubt FS has been planting indicate that he knows it will be a blowout. 

Conversely, I cannot get 2016 out of my head....only the Cubs also won then. 

Aren't the polls to damn close for it to be a blowout?


... at the same time I have put money down on it being a blowout. 

The electoral college. So you can every state by .05% and still win a landslide. 

Getting to 300 nowadays is a pretty big victory. 

The Juggler

Spiritual_Chaos said:

OnWis97 said:

Indifference said:

Trump 297-241

That seems about right. The Dems tend to fumble close states and polls have shown that like 40% of people won't vote for a woman for president.

I think the Dems would have had a really good chance if Biden had announced in 2023 that he won't seek a second term, leading to an actual party nomination process. The criticism that she's never received more than a couple percent in a nominating process is valid.

Who has really complained about it other than Trump on stage and his followers parroting it? 

Doesn't seem to have been a huge blowback, from what I've seen/heard?

But ofc it should have been Bernie OR WHY NOT OPRAH

Hard to say how impactful it is. It's true that a lot of people who talk about it are people that wouldn't vote for a Dem under any circumstances. All this talk is just about either getting people off the couch on election day or grabbing the (unbelievably to this point) undecided voters.

The impact of that is probably greater than zero but not as great as Hillary's ignoring Wisconsin eight years ago.

I do not think this will play a factor at all. 

darwinstheory

The Juggler said:

darwinstheory said:

Gern Blansten said:

I can see it being a Harris blow out or trump barely winning...I just don't know

I'm right there with you. I feel like the seeds of doubt FS has been planting indicate that he knows it will be a blowout. 

Conversely, I cannot get 2016 out of my head....only the Cubs also won then. 

Who is FS?

Fuck Stick

The Juggler

Jon Ralston is predicting Harris takes Nevada. That would be huge. 

Gern Blansten

The Juggler said:

Jon Ralston is predicting Harris takes Nevada. That would be huge. 

lol I was just reading that...

Spiritual_Chaos

What worries me is that (swedish) betting places has Harris at 2.30 and Trump at 1.70