2024 US Election - Predictions

Spiritual_Chaos

OnWis97 said:

Indifference said:

Trump 297-241

That seems about right. The Dems tend to fumble close states and polls have shown that like 40% of people won't vote for a woman for president.

I think the Dems would have had a really good chance if Biden had announced in 2023 that he won't seek a second term, leading to an actual party nomination process. The criticism that she's never received more than a couple percent in a nominating process is valid.

Who has really complained about it other than Trump on stage and his followers parroting it? 

Doesn't seem to have been a huge blowback, from what I've seen/heard?

But ofc it should have been Bernie OR WHY NOT OPRAH

Spiritual_Chaos

darwinstheory said:

Gern Blansten said:

I can see it being a Harris blow out or trump barely winning...I just don't know

I'm right there with you. I feel like the seeds of doubt FS has been planting indicate that he knows it will be a blowout. 

Conversely, I cannot get 2016 out of my head....only the Cubs also won then. 

Aren't the polls to damn close for it to be a blowout?


... at the same time I have put money down on it being a blowout. 

OnWis97

gimmesometruth27 said:

OnWis97 said:

Indifference said:

Trump 297-241

That seems about right. The Dems tend to fumble close states and polls have shown that like 40% of people won't vote for a woman for president.

I think the Dems would have had a really good chance if Biden had announced in 2023 that he won't seek a second term, leading to an actual party nomination process. The criticism that she's never received more than a couple percent in a nominating process is valid.

back then she had not been veep for 4 years, so that point is absolutely moot today.

I don't agree. There was no primary. I guess her poor showing in the primary is a bit of an extra icing on the cake but Biden's late drop out just sort of had the party shrugging and going "the VP I guess." 

Obviously, she'd have drawn more than a few percent under my preferred scenario (i.e., 2024 primaries). She may have even won. But we'll never know and the voters (Registered Dem voters) never had a say. Then again, they kinda didn't in 2016, either.

Spiritual_Chaos said:

OnWis97 said:

Indifference said:

Trump 297-241

That seems about right. The Dems tend to fumble close states and polls have shown that like 40% of people won't vote for a woman for president.

I think the Dems would have had a really good chance if Biden had announced in 2023 that he won't seek a second term, leading to an actual party nomination process. The criticism that she's never received more than a couple percent in a nominating process is valid.

Who has really complained about it other than Trump on stage and his followers parroting it? 

Doesn't seem to have been a huge blowback, from what I've seen/heard?

But ofc it should have been Bernie OR WHY NOT OPRAH

Hard to say how impactful it is. It's true that a lot of people who talk about it are people that wouldn't vote for a Dem under any circumstances. All this talk is just about either getting people off the couch on election day or grabbing the (unbelievably to this point) undecided voters.

The impact of that is probably greater than zero but not as great as Hillary's ignoring Wisconsin eight years ago.

The Juggler

darwinstheory said:

Gern Blansten said:

I can see it being a Harris blow out or trump barely winning...I just don't know

I'm right there with you. I feel like the seeds of doubt FS has been planting indicate that he knows it will be a blowout. 

Conversely, I cannot get 2016 out of my head....only the Cubs also won then. 

Who is FS?

The Juggler

Spiritual_Chaos said:

darwinstheory said:

Gern Blansten said:

I can see it being a Harris blow out or trump barely winning...I just don't know

I'm right there with you. I feel like the seeds of doubt FS has been planting indicate that he knows it will be a blowout. 

Conversely, I cannot get 2016 out of my head....only the Cubs also won then. 

Aren't the polls to damn close for it to be a blowout?


... at the same time I have put money down on it being a blowout. 

The electoral college. So you can every state by .05% and still win a landslide. 

Getting to 300 nowadays is a pretty big victory. 

The Juggler

Spiritual_Chaos said:

OnWis97 said:

Indifference said:

Trump 297-241

That seems about right. The Dems tend to fumble close states and polls have shown that like 40% of people won't vote for a woman for president.

I think the Dems would have had a really good chance if Biden had announced in 2023 that he won't seek a second term, leading to an actual party nomination process. The criticism that she's never received more than a couple percent in a nominating process is valid.

Who has really complained about it other than Trump on stage and his followers parroting it? 

Doesn't seem to have been a huge blowback, from what I've seen/heard?

But ofc it should have been Bernie OR WHY NOT OPRAH

Hard to say how impactful it is. It's true that a lot of people who talk about it are people that wouldn't vote for a Dem under any circumstances. All this talk is just about either getting people off the couch on election day or grabbing the (unbelievably to this point) undecided voters.

The impact of that is probably greater than zero but not as great as Hillary's ignoring Wisconsin eight years ago.

I do not think this will play a factor at all. 

darwinstheory

The Juggler said:

darwinstheory said:

Gern Blansten said:

I can see it being a Harris blow out or trump barely winning...I just don't know

I'm right there with you. I feel like the seeds of doubt FS has been planting indicate that he knows it will be a blowout. 

Conversely, I cannot get 2016 out of my head....only the Cubs also won then. 

Who is FS?

Fuck Stick

The Juggler

Jon Ralston is predicting Harris takes Nevada. That would be huge. 

Gern Blansten

The Juggler said:

Jon Ralston is predicting Harris takes Nevada. That would be huge. 

lol I was just reading that...

Spiritual_Chaos

What worries me is that (swedish) betting places has Harris at 2.30 and Trump at 1.70

Gern Blansten

Spiritual_Chaos said:

What worries me is that (swedish) betting places has Harris at 2.30 and Trump at 1.70

I wonder about the demographic of these betting places...seems to me to be mostly young white men

Spiritual_Chaos

Gern Blansten said:

Spiritual_Chaos said:

What worries me is that (swedish) betting places has Harris at 2.30 and Trump at 1.70

I wonder about the demographic of these betting places...seems to me to be mostly young white men

Yeah. I tried to will it into me exploiting that and CASHING OUT. We'll see.

The Juggler

Spiritual_Chaos said:

What worries me is that (swedish) betting places has Harris at 2.30 and Trump at 1.70

I would not put much stock in any of the betting markets

OnWis97

There's something unsavory about gambling on elections. Then again, there's something unsavory about gambling in general.
(Not that I'm against it but it's always funny to see someone lose their mind because a late TD caused a team to win by 19 instead of 26.)

Spiritual_Chaos

OnWis97 said:

There's something unsavory about gambling on elections. Then again, there's something unsavory about gambling in general.
(Not that I'm against it but it's always funny to see someone lose their mind because a late TD caused a team to win by 19 instead of 26.)

Last time I bet on anything... was that Carrie Fisher would be the last one shown at the Academy Awards In Memorial-montage.

I think I lost on some of the awards categories though that Oscar year. But still made some money because of Fisher (like 40 bucks.. haha)

Only time I ever bet on anything. Until now. 

OnWis97

Spiritual_Chaos said:

OnWis97 said:

There's something unsavory about gambling on elections. Then again, there's something unsavory about gambling in general.
(Not that I'm against it but it's always funny to see someone lose their mind because a late TD caused a team to win by 19 instead of 26.)

Last time I bet on anything... was that Carrie Fisher would be the last one shown at the Academy Awards In Memorial-montage.

I think I lost on some of the awards categories though that Oscar year. But still made some money because of Fisher (like 40 bucks.. haha)

Wow. You truly can bet on anything.

My favorite is the Super Bowl coin flip. Which team wins the flip. Heads or tails. Probably weather the person calls heads or tails.

JesseMcK

My guess is:
- The Selzer poll doesn't mean KH is going to win IA, but it probably does mean she's in better shape in MI, WI, PA, and carries all three
- The dink running for Gov., in NC drags Trump down and KH takes NC too

OnWis97

JesseMcK said:

My guess is:
- The Selzer poll doesn't mean KH is going to win IA, but it probably does mean she's in better shape in MI, WI, PA, and carries all three
- The dink running for Gov., in NC drags Trump down and KH takes NC too

That would be awesome. Not sure how he impacts the presidential race there. He might not hurt Trump, but he sure as hell doesn't help.

Gern Blansten

JesseMcK said:

My guess is:
- The Selzer poll doesn't mean KH is going to win IA, but it probably does mean she's in better shape in MI, WI, PA, and carries all three
- The dink running for Gov., in NC drags Trump down and KH takes NC too

yeah if Harris is even close to trump in IA that will be very interesting

The Juggler

Gern Blansten said:

JesseMcK said:

My guess is:
- The Selzer poll doesn't mean KH is going to win IA, but it probably does mean she's in better shape in MI, WI, PA, and carries all three
- The dink running for Gov., in NC drags Trump down and KH takes NC too

yeah if Harris is even close to trump in IA that will be very interesting

I agree with all of this.