2024 US Election - Predictions

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  • OnWis97OnWis97 Posts: 5,131
    tbergs said:
    OnWis97 said:
    I tend to think Mitt would win easily under these exact circumstances. He lost to Obama because Obama had that rare personality that brought people out. Trump is going to win because of the number of generally conservative people that vote republican and would still vote for Mitt. There'd be far less awesome merch but I tend to think the merch-owners would vote for him in large numbers. Plus, consider that Biden, about whom nobody was excited, probably won because some of the middle were sick of Trump. That would go away and Harris would lose voters.

    1984 (one state and DC for Mondale) probably cannot happen because we're not white enough. But I think Mitt might win with a margin closer to, say, Clinton's margin in 1996.
    I get it, but your constant doom and gloom that Trump will win gets tiring. Prepare yourself for a Trump loss. It can happen. 😉 
    And I was soooo close to saying "Trump has a chance to win" instead of "Trump is going to win." I am what I am, though.
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  • Tim SimmonsTim Simmons Posts: 8,069
    I also predict that these forums will continue to be filled more and more with the far left and far right who defend everything their team does and denounces as pure evil everything the other team does. 
    theres very few vocal Far Left here if any at all. "far left" sure, but Left of center is basically 95% of the voices here that I've seen this cycle.
  • Tim SimmonsTim Simmons Posts: 8,069
    I'd also say once Trump is gone and the GOP starts to lean traditional in order to win back the middle voters, you'll get less "pure evil" general accusations and just the normal 'morally evil' accusations. 
  • tbergstbergs Posts: 9,807
    I also predict that these forums will continue to be filled more and more with the far left and far right who defend everything their team does and denounces as pure evil everything the other team does. 
    theres very few vocal Far Left here if any at all. "far left" sure, but Left of center is basically 95% of the voices here that I've seen this cycle.
    Yeah, far left is a stretch. If far left means just pointing to Trump when a dem issue comes up, then I could see that point, but encouraging or supporting outright lies and misinformation is not happening. We're just socialists, not communists 😉.
    It's a hopeless situation...
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Posts: 48,903
    tbergs said:
    I also predict that these forums will continue to be filled more and more with the far left and far right who defend everything their team does and denounces as pure evil everything the other team does. 
    theres very few vocal Far Left here if any at all. "far left" sure, but Left of center is basically 95% of the voices here that I've seen this cycle.
    Yeah, far left is a stretch. If far left means just pointing to Trump when a dem issue comes up, then I could see that point, but encouraging or supporting outright lies and misinformation is not happening. We're just socialists, not communists 😉.
    I'm a former republican who once voted libertarian for president. 

    lol
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  • OnWis97OnWis97 Posts: 5,131
    I'd also say once Trump is gone and the GOP starts to lean traditional in order to win back the middle voters, you'll get less "pure evil" general accusations and just the normal 'morally evil' accusations. 
    That would be awesome but there's so much outrage in the places they get their "information." That seems like a slow path at best.
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  • What worries me is that (swedish) betting places has Harris at 2.30 and Trump at 1.70
    I would not put much stock in any of the betting markets
    Have you ever heard the saying FOLLOW THE $$$$??? Probably not since it’s obvious many of y’all don’t have much of it…. Sleep well, Mahalo
    you sound nervous. get your shots in while you can.
    Care to put some real skin in the game??? If that dipshit Commila wins I go away for a year, if The Orangeman wins you go away for a year…
    I already know the answer since it’s obvious you don’t have much going on in your world other then this forum and you can’t be that confident…L
    Ill take that bet?

     (If it excludes having to ask things related to an upcoming Pearl Jam tour in the ”The Porch” section (like for example ”how does this new fanclub ticket lottery system work?”) 
    No deal, you don’t need this forum for self worth and are reasonable…
  • brianlux said:
    Regardless of who wins, I am leaving the country on Wednesday.  

    Kamala will win.  Crazy that it is this close and how the far right has destroyed the party.  Mitt Romney could have easily beat Kamala, but someone like that won’t beat Trump because of the far right buffoons.

    If you go, I'll say "Good luck and bon voyage."  On the other hand, if you stay, why not become active in the Republican party and be a part of a movement that is sorely needed to make that party viable again?  And remember, these things go in cycles.  I really doubt the far right will not dominate the Republican party forever.  Maybe consider being a part of the change.
    And I'm not saying that being an ex-patriot is a horrible things. I know or have known a number of ex-pats and some seem happy, and others not much.   Really, unless you're really wealthy or well connected, it kind of a crap shoot.  I don't have the stats, but it seems to me the majority of ex-pats end up returning.  Seems like a lot of trouble for what could turn out to be a money drain and for an extended leave.
    Although I would love to retire to Europe (which could be a ticking time bomb), I am just referring to my trip to New Zealand to see Pearl Jam on Friday.  Funny timing.

    i do hope the Republican Party can reform to less crazy.  Maybe even add a few other viable parties to break up this two party crap.
    Good on ya, see ya out there on the 10th in NZ.   Keep an eye out for a small blond w/ a guy 6’6 most likely wearing his Cubs hat he always wears at PJ shows.  Safe travels, it’s gonna be awesome few weeks down under….hope you surf!! 
  • brianluxbrianlux Posts: 42,012
    Don't you just love how the "talk about the subject, not each other" works here?
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  • What worries me is that (swedish) betting places has Harris at 2.30 and Trump at 1.70
    I would not put much stock in any of the betting markets
    Have you ever heard the saying FOLLOW THE $$$$??? Probably not since it’s obvious many of y’all don’t have much of it…. Sleep well, Mahalo
    you sound nervous. get your shots in while you can.
    Care to put some real skin in the game??? If that dipshit Commila wins I go away for a year, if The Orangeman wins you go away for a year…
    I already know the answer since it’s obvious you don’t have much going on in your world other then this forum and you can’t be that confident…L
    i have never been more confident in my life. 

    however, i tried to make this bet a few elections ago, got reported, and got a warning, so i am not going to take you up on it this time.

    see you back on here crying about voter fraud in a few days, mkay?

    mahalo
    Really?? Reported 4 that?? The suppression of stuff has no boundaries apparently.  Oh well, Good luck w/ everything.  Aloha 
  • MayDay10MayDay10 Posts: 11,726
    I'd also say once Trump is gone and the GOP starts to lean traditional in order to win back the middle voters, you'll get less "pure evil" general accusations and just the normal 'morally evil' accusations. 

    I'm hoping.  The irony is, the once radical-left 46-year-old me would probably get on board with a lot of the traditional conservative ideals.

    My gut says Trump's ego will not compel him to push a successor to his movement, not even his kids.  This is his thing and he wants nobody to come close to it.  Several people will vie to collect his coalition, but it will probably fall flat and people will fracture. To be Trump is a perfect storm of bombast, narcissism, and complete lack of self-awareness.  It cannot be replicated
    Most Republicans in Washington want to be rid of this guy, but cant openly admit it or do anything about it because its political suicide.  If they get a chance, they will pounce and wipe this away.  

    What I would like, is if we could somehow split into 4 parties.  Religious right, Conservatives, Middle-Left, and Extreme-left.  Go toward a ranked-choice voting system, and scrap/re-work the electoral college.  I would also expand the Supreme Court and tag some controls/term limits on there (term limits in congress too).  Allow the executive branch to nominate like 3 justices each term, and they serve for 20 years or something like that.
    I would also consider making the president a single 6 year term.  That way, the first term isnt 75% campaigning.  Work the congressional terms around to make them true referendums on the president.  
  • BentleyspopBentleyspop Posts: 10,758
    What worries me is that (swedish) betting places has Harris at 2.30 and Trump at 1.70
    I would not put much stock in any of the betting markets
    Have you ever heard the saying FOLLOW THE $$$$??? Probably not since it’s obvious many of y’all don’t have much of it…. Sleep well, Mahalo
    you sound nervous. get your shots in while you can.
    Care to put some real skin in the game??? If that dipshit Commila wins I go away for a year, if The Orangeman wins you go away for a year…
    I already know the answer since it’s obvious you don’t have much going on in your world other then this forum and you can’t be that confident…L
    Seems like ol' linda here is contemplating leaving the country if Harris wins..
    Is there a Ritz-Carlton in Moscow?
  • darwinstheorydarwinstheory Posts: 6,446
    What worries me is that (swedish) betting places has Harris at 2.30 and Trump at 1.70
    I would not put much stock in any of the betting markets
    Have you ever heard the saying FOLLOW THE $$$$??? Probably not since it’s obvious many of y’all don’t have much of it…. Sleep well, Mahalo
    you sound nervous. get your shots in while you can.
    Care to put some real skin in the game??? If that dipshit Commila wins I go away for a year, if The Orangeman wins you go away for a year…
    I already know the answer since it’s obvious you don’t have much going on in your world other then this forum and you can’t be that confident…L
    Seems like ol' linda here is contemplating leaving the country if Harris wins..
    Is there a Ritz-Carlton in Moscow?
    I laughed. 
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Posts: 48,903
    brianlux said:
    Regardless of who wins, I am leaving the country on Wednesday.  

    Kamala will win.  Crazy that it is this close and how the far right has destroyed the party.  Mitt Romney could have easily beat Kamala, but someone like that won’t beat Trump because of the far right buffoons.

    If you go, I'll say "Good luck and bon voyage."  On the other hand, if you stay, why not become active in the Republican party and be a part of a movement that is sorely needed to make that party viable again?  And remember, these things go in cycles.  I really doubt the far right will not dominate the Republican party forever.  Maybe consider being a part of the change.
    And I'm not saying that being an ex-patriot is a horrible things. I know or have known a number of ex-pats and some seem happy, and others not much.   Really, unless you're really wealthy or well connected, it kind of a crap shoot.  I don't have the stats, but it seems to me the majority of ex-pats end up returning.  Seems like a lot of trouble for what could turn out to be a money drain and for an extended leave.
    Although I would love to retire to Europe (which could be a ticking time bomb), I am just referring to my trip to New Zealand to see Pearl Jam on Friday.  Funny timing.

    i do hope the Republican Party can reform to less crazy.  Maybe even add a few other viable parties to break up this two party crap.
    Good on ya, see ya out there on the 10th in NZ.   Keep an eye out for a small blond w/ a guy 6’6 most likely wearing his Cubs hat he always wears at PJ shows.  Safe travels, it’s gonna be awesome few weeks down under….hope you surf!! 

    www.myspace.com
  • brianlux said:
    Regardless of who wins, I am leaving the country on Wednesday.  

    Kamala will win.  Crazy that it is this close and how the far right has destroyed the party.  Mitt Romney could have easily beat Kamala, but someone like that won’t beat Trump because of the far right buffoons.

    If you go, I'll say "Good luck and bon voyage."  On the other hand, if you stay, why not become active in the Republican party and be a part of a movement that is sorely needed to make that party viable again?  And remember, these things go in cycles.  I really doubt the far right will not dominate the Republican party forever.  Maybe consider being a part of the change.
    And I'm not saying that being an ex-patriot is a horrible things. I know or have known a number of ex-pats and some seem happy, and others not much.   Really, unless you're really wealthy or well connected, it kind of a crap shoot.  I don't have the stats, but it seems to me the majority of ex-pats end up returning.  Seems like a lot of trouble for what could turn out to be a money drain and for an extended leave.
    Although I would love to retire to Europe (which could be a ticking time bomb), I am just referring to my trip to New Zealand to see Pearl Jam on Friday.  Funny timing.

    i do hope the Republican Party can reform to less crazy.  Maybe even add a few other viable parties to break up this two party crap.
    Good on ya, see ya out there on the 10th in NZ.   Keep an eye out for a small blond w/ a guy 6’6 most likely wearing his Cubs hat he always wears at PJ shows.  Safe travels, it’s gonna be awesome few weeks down under….hope you surf!! 

    What’s wrong w/ this beautiful woman?  Keep your hate and misogynistic ways to yourself …
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Posts: 20,223
    brianlux said:
    Regardless of who wins, I am leaving the country on Wednesday.  

    Kamala will win.  Crazy that it is this close and how the far right has destroyed the party.  Mitt Romney could have easily beat Kamala, but someone like that won’t beat Trump because of the far right buffoons.

    If you go, I'll say "Good luck and bon voyage."  On the other hand, if you stay, why not become active in the Republican party and be a part of a movement that is sorely needed to make that party viable again?  And remember, these things go in cycles.  I really doubt the far right will not dominate the Republican party forever.  Maybe consider being a part of the change.
    And I'm not saying that being an ex-patriot is a horrible things. I know or have known a number of ex-pats and some seem happy, and others not much.   Really, unless you're really wealthy or well connected, it kind of a crap shoot.  I don't have the stats, but it seems to me the majority of ex-pats end up returning.  Seems like a lot of trouble for what could turn out to be a money drain and for an extended leave.
    Although I would love to retire to Europe (which could be a ticking time bomb), I am just referring to my trip to New Zealand to see Pearl Jam on Friday.  Funny timing.

    i do hope the Republican Party can reform to less crazy.  Maybe even add a few other viable parties to break up this two party crap.
    Good on ya, see ya out there on the 10th in NZ.   Keep an eye out for a small blond w/ a guy 6’6 most likely wearing his Cubs hat he always wears at PJ shows.  Safe travels, it’s gonna be awesome few weeks down under….hope you surf!! 

    What’s wrong w/ this beautiful woman?  Keep your hate and misogynistic ways to yourself …
    The nazi hat for one...
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  • Tim SimmonsTim Simmons Posts: 8,069
    She’s wearing it crooked too. Is she in a gang? Seems threatening 
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Posts: 48,903
    brianlux said:
    Regardless of who wins, I am leaving the country on Wednesday.  

    Kamala will win.  Crazy that it is this close and how the far right has destroyed the party.  Mitt Romney could have easily beat Kamala, but someone like that won’t beat Trump because of the far right buffoons.

    If you go, I'll say "Good luck and bon voyage."  On the other hand, if you stay, why not become active in the Republican party and be a part of a movement that is sorely needed to make that party viable again?  And remember, these things go in cycles.  I really doubt the far right will not dominate the Republican party forever.  Maybe consider being a part of the change.
    And I'm not saying that being an ex-patriot is a horrible things. I know or have known a number of ex-pats and some seem happy, and others not much.   Really, unless you're really wealthy or well connected, it kind of a crap shoot.  I don't have the stats, but it seems to me the majority of ex-pats end up returning.  Seems like a lot of trouble for what could turn out to be a money drain and for an extended leave.
    Although I would love to retire to Europe (which could be a ticking time bomb), I am just referring to my trip to New Zealand to see Pearl Jam on Friday.  Funny timing.

    i do hope the Republican Party can reform to less crazy.  Maybe even add a few other viable parties to break up this two party crap.
    Good on ya, see ya out there on the 10th in NZ.   Keep an eye out for a small blond w/ a guy 6’6 most likely wearing his Cubs hat he always wears at PJ shows.  Safe travels, it’s gonna be awesome few weeks down under….hope you surf!! 

    What’s wrong w/ this beautiful woman?  Keep your hate and misogynistic ways to yourself …

    www.myspace.com
  • BentleyspopBentleyspop Posts: 10,758
    She’s wearing it crooked too. Is she in a gang? Seems threatening 
    Its a klan not a gang
  • cutzcutz Posts: 11,829
    mickeyrat said:
    mickeyrat said:
    got ourselves a line this time. 25 or so outside. prob close to same inside to check in give or take. couldnt say yet after check in.
    I forgot that there is a polling place right next to my house. Not mine for some reason...mine is a mile away.

    There was no one in line outside and no foot traffic other than one guy I saw walking in. Weird. Of course I'm in Red Meat, IN.
    approx 60 or so after check in. 12 machines here.

    no issues with voters. one woman had a medical issue. was taken out on stretcher. dont think she voted yet. appeared like a poll worker was addressing the non-vote after check in.

    I went to where I vote and I was told it's 3-4 hours to vote. 

    Lady in front of me said she's NEVER seen it like this and she's been voting in this Town for many years. Usually takes no more then 10 minutes. I recently moved to this Town and this is my first time trying to vote.

    Poll workers told me that it's 3 hours to vote , at least. And they also told me they're suppose to get more machines in as they only have 3. Where I live is the 2nd  most populated in the County so not sure why they only have 3 machines there.
  • cutz said:
    mickeyrat said:
    mickeyrat said:
    got ourselves a line this time. 25 or so outside. prob close to same inside to check in give or take. couldnt say yet after check in.
    I forgot that there is a polling place right next to my house. Not mine for some reason...mine is a mile away.

    There was no one in line outside and no foot traffic other than one guy I saw walking in. Weird. Of course I'm in Red Meat, IN.
    approx 60 or so after check in. 12 machines here.

    no issues with voters. one woman had a medical issue. was taken out on stretcher. dont think she voted yet. appeared like a poll worker was addressing the non-vote after check in.

    I went to where I vote and I was told it's 3-4 hours to vote. 

    Lady in front of me said she's NEVER seen it like this and she's been voting in this Town for many years. Usually takes no more then 10 minutes. I recently moved to this Town and this is my first time trying to vote.

    Poll workers told me that it's 3 hours to vote , at least. And they also told me they're suppose to get more machines in as they only have 3. Where I live is the 2nd  most populated in the County so not sure why they only have 3 machines there.
    what state?
    "You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry."  - Lincoln

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 39,010
    She’s wearing it crooked too. Is she in a gang? Seems threatening 
    Its a klan not a gang
    It’s definitely a cult.
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  • tbergstbergs Posts: 9,807
    cutz said:
    mickeyrat said:
    mickeyrat said:
    got ourselves a line this time. 25 or so outside. prob close to same inside to check in give or take. couldnt say yet after check in.
    I forgot that there is a polling place right next to my house. Not mine for some reason...mine is a mile away.

    There was no one in line outside and no foot traffic other than one guy I saw walking in. Weird. Of course I'm in Red Meat, IN.
    approx 60 or so after check in. 12 machines here.

    no issues with voters. one woman had a medical issue. was taken out on stretcher. dont think she voted yet. appeared like a poll worker was addressing the non-vote after check in.

    I went to where I vote and I was told it's 3-4 hours to vote. 

    Lady in front of me said she's NEVER seen it like this and she's been voting in this Town for many years. Usually takes no more then 10 minutes. I recently moved to this Town and this is my first time trying to vote.

    Poll workers told me that it's 3 hours to vote , at least. And they also told me they're suppose to get more machines in as they only have 3. Where I live is the 2nd  most populated in the County so not sure why they only have 3 machines there.
    what state?
    Is it WiMiPaGaAzNe?
    It's a hopeless situation...
  • She’s wearing it crooked too. Is she in a gang? Seems threatening 
    Its a klan not a gang
    It’s definitely a cult.
    Definitely a Kult..lol.  …part of me wants this oxygen thief to win so we can listen to her embarrass herself pretty much every time she opens her pie hole…
    https://www.instagram.com/reel/DBl7bSAROVJ/?igsh=ZmVvM211Z29haGNw
  • mickeyratmickeyrat Posts: 38,547
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  • Tim SimmonsTim Simmons Posts: 8,069
    She’s wearing it crooked too. Is she in a gang? Seems threatening 
    Its a klan not a gang
    It’s definitely a cult.
    Definitely a Kult..lol.  …part of me wants this oxygen thief to win so we can listen to her embarrass herself pretty much every time she opens her pie hole…
    https://www.instagram.com/reel/DBl7bSAROVJ/?igsh=ZmVvM211Z29haGNw
    I am fine with this trade off and will take this bet 
  • brianluxbrianlux Posts: 42,012
    mickeyrat said:

    Cool maps!  A refreshing break, thank you! :smiley:
    “The fear of death follows from the fear of life. A man [or woman] who lives fully is prepared to die at any time.”
    Variously credited to Mark Twain or Edward Abbey.













  • Tim SimmonsTim Simmons Posts: 8,069


  • early exit polls are never right.
    "You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry."  - Lincoln

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • Tim SimmonsTim Simmons Posts: 8,069
    The ones that come out in a few months are the best. 
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