2024 US Election - Predictions

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  • brianluxbrianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 42,287
    Too early to freak out.  Remember, a lot of the early results come from smaller rural population areas where votes are counted more quickly and voters are more conservative.  No way should anybody be claiming victory or throwing in the towel yet. 
    "Pretty cookies, heart squares all around, yeah!"
    -Eddie Vedder, "Smile"

    "Try to not spook the horse."
    -Neil Young













  • MayDay10MayDay10 Posts: 11,738
    We are all going to be speaking German by the morning
  • MayDay10MayDay10 Posts: 11,738
    brianlux said:
    Too early to freak out.  Remember, a lot of the early results come from smaller rural population areas where votes are counted more quickly and voters are more conservative.  No way should anybody be claiming victory or throwing in the towel yet. 
    Best come to terms with it 

    Trump has won this thing, and it isn't going to end up particularly close
  • PoncierPoncier Posts: 17,053
    Poncier said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Poncier said:
    mcgruff10 said:
    Poncier said:
    Looks like our Orange Overlord will return.
    What makes you think that?
    Harris badly underperforming in VA.
    Exit polls show most voters with unfavorable view of current administration. Sure sign of incumbent party going down.
    This thing is over.
    No, I don't think so yet.  The vote % in Henrico, Alexandria, Fairfax are all still relatively low.  These are the strongholds and high population centers.  Biden was behind at this time in 2020 as well.  She isn't going to lose VA.  It's all about PA. 

    Also, Hampton Roads and the rest of the Tidewater is still very low.  That's actually higher population than NOVA. 
    Not saying she'll lose VA, but she's performing Hillary like numbers which is a very bad sign.
    And underperforming Biden in key college town counties in Michigan and Wisconsin.

    Turn out the lights, the party's over.

    We may never see a woman elected US President in our lifetimes.
    This weekend we rock Portland
  • JesseMcKJesseMcK Maine Posts: 65
    Yeah - this definitely feels like 2016, where you watch one avenue get closed off, then turn your attention to another only to watch that slowly erode too.

    This country likes Trump.
  • tbergstbergs Posts: 9,876
    JesseMcK said:
    Yeah - this definitely feels like 2016, where you watch one avenue get closed off, then turn your attention to another only to watch that slowly erode too.

    This country likes Trump.
    Mostly the same states that liked Jim Crow and slavery. They've silently passed down their beliefs for decades waiting for the right candidate to come forward again and Trump is that person.
    It's a hopeless situation...
  • tbergstbergs Posts: 9,876
    Poncier said:
    Poncier said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Poncier said:
    mcgruff10 said:
    Poncier said:
    Looks like our Orange Overlord will return.
    What makes you think that?
    Harris badly underperforming in VA.
    Exit polls show most voters with unfavorable view of current administration. Sure sign of incumbent party going down.
    This thing is over.
    No, I don't think so yet.  The vote % in Henrico, Alexandria, Fairfax are all still relatively low.  These are the strongholds and high population centers.  Biden was behind at this time in 2020 as well.  She isn't going to lose VA.  It's all about PA. 

    Also, Hampton Roads and the rest of the Tidewater is still very low.  That's actually higher population than NOVA. 
    Not saying she'll lose VA, but she's performing Hillary like numbers which is a very bad sign.
    And underperforming Biden in key college town counties in Michigan and Wisconsin.

    Turn out the lights, the party's over.

    We may never see a woman elected US President in our lifetimes.
    She has a narrower path to victory at this point than he does. PA won't matter if WI falls. 
    It's a hopeless situation...
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 6,749
    tbergs said:
    Poncier said:
    Poncier said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Poncier said:
    mcgruff10 said:
    Poncier said:
    Looks like our Orange Overlord will return.
    What makes you think that?
    Harris badly underperforming in VA.
    Exit polls show most voters with unfavorable view of current administration. Sure sign of incumbent party going down.
    This thing is over.
    No, I don't think so yet.  The vote % in Henrico, Alexandria, Fairfax are all still relatively low.  These are the strongholds and high population centers.  Biden was behind at this time in 2020 as well.  She isn't going to lose VA.  It's all about PA. 

    Also, Hampton Roads and the rest of the Tidewater is still very low.  That's actually higher population than NOVA. 
    Not saying she'll lose VA, but she's performing Hillary like numbers which is a very bad sign.
    And underperforming Biden in key college town counties in Michigan and Wisconsin.

    Turn out the lights, the party's over.

    We may never see a woman elected US President in our lifetimes.
    She has a narrower path to victory at this point than he does. PA won't matter if WI falls. 

    Times has GA and NC as very likely R right now. That makes PA a must win for Dems.

    and Kormacki is going on and on county by county how trump is hitting his numbers in PA. Overall odds have it at 65% trump now.
  • PJ_SoulPJ_Soul Vancouver, BC Posts: 49,987
    I can't watch. I tried for 2 minutes and then started watching Survivor on my PVR. Survivor votes are ones I can handle, lol.
    With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be careful. Strive to be happy. ~ Desiderata
  • tbergstbergs Posts: 9,876
    tbergs said:
    Poncier said:
    Poncier said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Poncier said:
    mcgruff10 said:
    Poncier said:
    Looks like our Orange Overlord will return.
    What makes you think that?
    Harris badly underperforming in VA.
    Exit polls show most voters with unfavorable view of current administration. Sure sign of incumbent party going down.
    This thing is over.
    No, I don't think so yet.  The vote % in Henrico, Alexandria, Fairfax are all still relatively low.  These are the strongholds and high population centers.  Biden was behind at this time in 2020 as well.  She isn't going to lose VA.  It's all about PA. 

    Also, Hampton Roads and the rest of the Tidewater is still very low.  That's actually higher population than NOVA. 
    Not saying she'll lose VA, but she's performing Hillary like numbers which is a very bad sign.
    And underperforming Biden in key college town counties in Michigan and Wisconsin.

    Turn out the lights, the party's over.

    We may never see a woman elected US President in our lifetimes.
    She has a narrower path to victory at this point than he does. PA won't matter if WI falls. 

    Times has GA and NC as very likely R right now. That makes PA a must win for Dems.

    and Kormacki is going on and on county by county how trump is hitting his numbers in PA. Overall odds have it at 65% trump now.
    Yeah the county by county break down for the entire country are all plus R between 5 - 10 points. It's crazy to see the maps broken down and the shift to R. When Trump tanks the economy, gives Ukraine to Russia, let's Israel annex the west bank and ends Obamacare, these people still won't care. Watch the world burn.
    It's a hopeless situation...
  • HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 37,338
    I just shake my head in disbelief how so many people can be so fucking stupid. Wow. Cheers from Canada. 
    "Oh Canada...you're beautiful when you're drunk"
    -EV  8/14/93




  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 6,749
    tbergs said:
    tbergs said:
    Poncier said:
    Poncier said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Poncier said:
    mcgruff10 said:
    Poncier said:
    Looks like our Orange Overlord will return.
    What makes you think that?
    Harris badly underperforming in VA.
    Exit polls show most voters with unfavorable view of current administration. Sure sign of incumbent party going down.
    This thing is over.
    No, I don't think so yet.  The vote % in Henrico, Alexandria, Fairfax are all still relatively low.  These are the strongholds and high population centers.  Biden was behind at this time in 2020 as well.  She isn't going to lose VA.  It's all about PA. 

    Also, Hampton Roads and the rest of the Tidewater is still very low.  That's actually higher population than NOVA. 
    Not saying she'll lose VA, but she's performing Hillary like numbers which is a very bad sign.
    And underperforming Biden in key college town counties in Michigan and Wisconsin.

    Turn out the lights, the party's over.

    We may never see a woman elected US President in our lifetimes.
    She has a narrower path to victory at this point than he does. PA won't matter if WI falls. 

    Times has GA and NC as very likely R right now. That makes PA a must win for Dems.

    and Kormacki is going on and on county by county how trump is hitting his numbers in PA. Overall odds have it at 65% trump now.
    Yeah the county by county break down for the entire country are all plus R between 5 - 10 points. It's crazy to see the maps broken down and the shift to R. When Trump tanks the economy, gives Ukraine to Russia, let's Israel annex the west bank and ends Obamacare, these people still won't care. Watch the world burn.

    We think of the great stock market, big economy and big cities, yet we are run by rural America that lives in 1970s technology. It’s brutal and as you say, can set us back in many ways.
  • PoncierPoncier Posts: 17,053
    tbergs said:
    Poncier said:
    Poncier said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Poncier said:
    mcgruff10 said:
    Poncier said:
    Looks like our Orange Overlord will return.
    What makes you think that?
    Harris badly underperforming in VA.
    Exit polls show most voters with unfavorable view of current administration. Sure sign of incumbent party going down.
    This thing is over.
    No, I don't think so yet.  The vote % in Henrico, Alexandria, Fairfax are all still relatively low.  These are the strongholds and high population centers.  Biden was behind at this time in 2020 as well.  She isn't going to lose VA.  It's all about PA. 

    Also, Hampton Roads and the rest of the Tidewater is still very low.  That's actually higher population than NOVA. 
    Not saying she'll lose VA, but she's performing Hillary like numbers which is a very bad sign.
    And underperforming Biden in key college town counties in Michigan and Wisconsin.

    Turn out the lights, the party's over.

    We may never see a woman elected US President in our lifetimes.
    She has a narrower path to victory at this point than he does. PA won't matter if WI falls. 
    Yeah, I think Wisc. is the final nail. Just like 2016.
    Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.
    This weekend we rock Portland
  • OnWis97OnWis97 St. Paul, MN Posts: 5,194
    Ball game. The Democrats have to understand how much people do not want to vote for women. Oh well, it’s not important. This is it for the Democratic Party at least at the presidential level.
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  • brianluxbrianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 42,287
    MayDay10 said:
    brianlux said:
    Too early to freak out.  Remember, a lot of the early results come from smaller rural population areas where votes are counted more quickly and voters are more conservative.  No way should anybody be claiming victory or throwing in the towel yet. 
    Best come to terms with it 

    Trump has won this thing, and it isn't going to end up particularly close

    There's no coming to terms with this for me.  If Trump wins, I'm done with caring about the state of the world.  It will be over for me.  I'm not doing four more years of this. 
    "Pretty cookies, heart squares all around, yeah!"
    -Eddie Vedder, "Smile"

    "Try to not spook the horse."
    -Neil Young













  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 6,749
    OnWis97 said:
    Ball game. The Democrats have to understand how much people do not want to vote for women. Oh well, it’s not important. This is it for the Democratic Party at least at the presidential level.

    Senate is off limits also - losing WV seat and OH. These seats may be solid R for a long time as will the senate. The only reason dems had senate was three seats in solid R states, which likely will not happen for a while
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 6,749
    brianlux said:
    MayDay10 said:
    brianlux said:
    Too early to freak out.  Remember, a lot of the early results come from smaller rural population areas where votes are counted more quickly and voters are more conservative.  No way should anybody be claiming victory or throwing in the towel yet. 
    Best come to terms with it 

    Trump has won this thing, and it isn't going to end up particularly close

    There's no coming to terms with this for me.  If Trump wins, I'm done with caring about the state of the world.  It will be over for me.  I'm not doing four more years of this. 

    Hang in there man. We need to think of the things we love, and let the Rs do whatever they need to do. It was obvious to me Americans don’t care for the climate months ago, it just hurts to see the polls were likely correct. 
  • droptheleash9droptheleash9 Posts: 1,436
    People drastically overestimate the impact of the president has on their everyday lives. If Kamala wins? We'll be fine. If Trump wins? We'll be fine. How many election cycles have we been sold on doomsday scenarios if the other party takes the White House? Those apocalyptic messages are pedaled on both sides of the political aisle so both parties are guilty. There are checks and balances. "Let's just breathe."
  • mace1229mace1229 Posts: 9,481
    OnWis97 said:
    Ball game. The Democrats have to understand how much people do not want to vote for women. Oh well, it’s not important. This is it for the Democratic Party at least at the presidential level.
    Why would it be over for the dem party?
    Look at the history of presidents, it’s always switching back and forth between parties. Trump can’t run again. 1 or 2 election cycles and it’ll flip around.
  • HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 37,338
    "This is it for the dem party". hahaha. 
    "Oh Canada...you're beautiful when you're drunk"
    -EV  8/14/93




  • tbergstbergs Posts: 9,876
    People drastically overestimate the impact of the president has on their everyday lives. If Kamala wins? We'll be fine. If Trump wins? We'll be fine. How many election cycles have we been sold on doomsday scenarios if the other party takes the White House? Those apocalyptic messages are pedaled on both sides of the political aisle so both parties are guilty. There are checks and balances. "Let's just breathe."
    I'd love to share that sentiment if the long term impact of a far right SCOTUS wasn't hanging in the balance. McConnell and Trump will have given us the majority of justices by gaming the system. The checks and balances aren't going to hold.
    It's a hopeless situation...
  • pjhawkspjhawks Posts: 12,566
    People drastically overestimate the impact of the president has on their everyday lives. If Kamala wins? We'll be fine. If Trump wins? We'll be fine. How many election cycles have we been sold on doomsday scenarios if the other party takes the White House? Those apocalyptic messages are pedaled on both sides of the political aisle so both parties are guilty. There are checks and balances. "Let's just breathe."
    How did it work out during Covid? How did it work out on Jan 6th?  With the SCOTUS immunity decision they’ve nice given an insane narcissist to do whatever the fuck he wants.  Sorry Trump winning is a disaster on so many levels 
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 6,749
    mace1229 said:
    OnWis97 said:
    Ball game. The Democrats have to understand how much people do not want to vote for women. Oh well, it’s not important. This is it for the Democratic Party at least at the presidential level.
    Why would it be over for the dem party?
    Look at the history of presidents, it’s always switching back and forth between parties. Trump can’t run again. 1 or 2 election cycles and it’ll flip around.

    Because Dems believe 47 will be able to make structural changes to the way government operates. He has a four year head start and his govt will be loyal to him. No more McMasters or Kelly

     The USSC has already done plenty in that regard. With OH and WV senate seats now R, possibly for a long time the senate looks to be out of reach. The Court will be Republican now for the rest of our lives (those of us near Eddies age)
  • tbergstbergs Posts: 9,876
    mace1229 said:
    OnWis97 said:
    Ball game. The Democrats have to understand how much people do not want to vote for women. Oh well, it’s not important. This is it for the Democratic Party at least at the presidential level.
    Why would it be over for the dem party?
    Look at the history of presidents, it’s always switching back and forth between parties. Trump can’t run again. 1 or 2 election cycles and it’ll flip around.
    We have no idea what Trump will do. People underestimate him because he says so much stupid shit, but to even opine about the kind of things he wants to do is dangerous. You're giving someone the benefit of the doubt who has repeatedly shown he doesn't deserve it.
    It's a hopeless situation...
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 39,311
    tbergs said:
    mace1229 said:
    OnWis97 said:
    Ball game. The Democrats have to understand how much people do not want to vote for women. Oh well, it’s not important. This is it for the Democratic Party at least at the presidential level.
    Why would it be over for the dem party?
    Look at the history of presidents, it’s always switching back and forth between parties. Trump can’t run again. 1 or 2 election cycles and it’ll flip around.
    We have no idea what Trump will do. People underestimate him because he says so much stupid shit, but to even opine about the kind of things he wants to do is dangerous. You're giving someone the benefit of the doubt who has repeatedly shown he doesn't deserve it.
    Maybe they’re ok with it? Like totally ok with it?
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  • mace1229mace1229 Posts: 9,481
    tbergs said:
    mace1229 said:
    OnWis97 said:
    Ball game. The Democrats have to understand how much people do not want to vote for women. Oh well, it’s not important. This is it for the Democratic Party at least at the presidential level.
    Why would it be over for the dem party?
    Look at the history of presidents, it’s always switching back and forth between parties. Trump can’t run again. 1 or 2 election cycles and it’ll flip around.
    We have no idea what Trump will do. People underestimate him because he says so much stupid shit, but to even opine about the kind of things he wants to do is dangerous. You're giving someone the benefit of the doubt who has repeatedly shown he doesn't deserve it.
    One of the things I’m certain of is in 4 years, he will be out of office (assuming he even wins) and there will be another election where the people decide who is president .
  • brianluxbrianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 42,287
    People drastically overestimate the impact of the president has on their everyday lives. If Kamala wins? We'll be fine. If Trump wins? We'll be fine. How many election cycles have we been sold on doomsday scenarios if the other party takes the White House? Those apocalyptic messages are pedaled on both sides of the political aisle so both parties are guilty. There are checks and balances. "Let's just breathe."

    Easy words... unless you've been fighting this shit for 50 years.  Fuck it.
    "Pretty cookies, heart squares all around, yeah!"
    -Eddie Vedder, "Smile"

    "Try to not spook the horse."
    -Neil Young













  • tbergstbergs Posts: 9,876
    One thing to chuckle about right now is looking at the vote totals here in MN and seeing RFK with 11k votes 🤪 
    It's a hopeless situation...
  • darwinstheorydarwinstheory LaPorte, IN Posts: 6,619
    I thought if Kamala won it was going to be an ass whopping. I thought if dickface won it would be the slimmest of margins. Seems I was entirely wrong. Bigly
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • pjhawkspjhawks Posts: 12,566
    How the fuck is he out performing what he did in 2020?  Economy, sexism, racism?  Combo of all 3?  Hard to believe this horrible piece of shit is gonna win again. I will never understand the appeal of such a terrible human 
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