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Official 2024 Ticket Lottery Results Thread

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  • troubledsoulsuniteblogtroubledsoulsuniteblog Posts: 277
    I think this comes down to the Pearl Jam Fan Club Monty Hall Problem, which can be summarized thusly:
    Suppose you're selecting 10 shows, and you're given the choice of two ticket options per show: One option is GA/Reserved; another option is Reserved Only. You select GA/Reserved because you really want GA. Now some fan in the forums tells you that the best thing to do to increase your odds is to change your request to GA/Reserved and Reserved Only to increase your odds of getting in the building. Are you at an advantage if you change your selection and how mad will you be if you're shut out of tickets for all 10 shows even though you've been a member for 300 years? And what about the fact that you're in for 10 shows? Should you just prioritize the shows you want more? Does anyone understand?
    The real answer is "who actually knows" as the fan club isn't publishing their algorithm. And all the proof in the world is limited to people commenting in the forums or on Facebook. Which is likely a tiny subset of all fans submitting requests.
    Pearl Jam: 9/4/00 7/1/03 5/30/06 6/22/08 6/24/08 6/25/08 8/23/09 8/24/09 10/28/09 10/31/09 5/20/10 10/15/13 8/7/16 9/2/18 9/4/18 9/5/23 9/7/23 8/29/24 8/31/24

    Eddie Vedder: 6/15/09 6/16/11
  • NewfieintheUSANewfieintheUSA Posts: 2,416
    SHZA said:
    BF25394 said:
    SHZA said:

    Another perfect 10 
    How do you know that this person only put in for these ten shows?
    Not relevant. They went 10 for 10 on these 10 shows. Since each draw is independent of other draws, it makes no difference if they put in for other shows or what their results were. For this group of shows, this person went 10-10. Would love to know the odds of that occurring 
    Really fn low. Let's assume odds to get selected for each individual show was 50% (which we know it isn't that high), the odds to get all 10 of these shows would be less than 0.1%. If you took it down to 40% odds per show you'd be at 0.01%.
  • ZS55810ZS55810 Posts: 8
    Status on the ticket request site has now changed from “request received” to “unfulfilled.” Just fyi 
  • gvntofly1021gvntofly1021 Posts: 18
    ZS55810 said:
    Status on the ticket request site has now changed from “request received” to “unfulfilled.” Just fyi 
    yep. there it is, closure.
  • JeBurkhardtJeBurkhardt Posts: 4,833
    ZS55810 said:
    Status on the ticket request site has now changed from “request received” to “unfulfilled.” Just fyi 
    Mine too. 
  • GlowGirlGlowGirl Posts: 10,884
    ZS55810 said:
    Status on the ticket request site has now changed from “request received” to “unfulfilled.” Just fyi 
    Yup! Two confirmed, Five unfulfilled for me.

  • NewfieintheUSANewfieintheUSA Posts: 2,416
    GlowGirl said:
    ZS55810 said:
    Status on the ticket request site has now changed from “request received” to “unfulfilled.” Just fyi 
    Yup! Two confirmed, Five unfulfilled for me.

    Sorry
  • KwienekeKwieneke Posts: 1,627
    officially unfulfilled for Seattle 2
    Noblesville 5.7.2010. Lexington 4.26.2016. Nashville 9.16.2022. St Louis 9.18.2022.
    Chicago 1 9.5.2023. Chicago 2 9.7.2023. 
    *Noblesville 9.10.2023* (Gutted) 
    Seattle 5.30.2024  Noblesville 8.26.2024  Chicago 8.29.2024  Chicago 8.31.2024 
  • NewfieintheUSANewfieintheUSA Posts: 2,416
    I feel so unfulfilled 
  • JseeteenakJseeteenak Posts: 122
    i put in a bunch of dates and scored pairs in P1 Vancouver N1 & N2 and also Chicago N1. now to decide which show i will attend. 
  • GlowGirlGlowGirl Posts: 10,884
    NewfieintheUSA said:
    GlowGirl said:
    ZS55810 said:
    Status on the ticket request site has now changed from “request received” to “unfulfilled.” Just fyi 
    Yup! Two confirmed, Five unfulfilled for me.

    Sorry
    Well, those are five less tickets I will have to sell on F2F when I upgrade to GA =)

  • KwienekeKwieneke Posts: 1,627
    GlowGirl said:
    NewfieintheUSA said:
    GlowGirl said:
    ZS55810 said:
    Status on the ticket request site has now changed from “request received” to “unfulfilled.” Just fyi 
    Yup! Two confirmed, Five unfulfilled for me.

    Sorry
    Well, those are five less tickets I will have to sell on F2F when I upgrade to GA =)

    thats the spirit!
    Noblesville 5.7.2010. Lexington 4.26.2016. Nashville 9.16.2022. St Louis 9.18.2022.
    Chicago 1 9.5.2023. Chicago 2 9.7.2023. 
    *Noblesville 9.10.2023* (Gutted) 
    Seattle 5.30.2024  Noblesville 8.26.2024  Chicago 8.29.2024  Chicago 8.31.2024 
  • YieldwaukeeYieldwaukee Posts: 129
    Processing complete, unfulfilled for Wrigley 2. Cue the “Price is Right” trombone. 

    2014 - Milwaukee
    2016 - Fenway N1
    2018 - Wrigley N1
    2022 - Oakland N1
    2023 - St Paul N1
    2024 - Wrigley N2
  • NewfieintheUSANewfieintheUSA Posts: 2,416
    GlowGirl said:
    NewfieintheUSA said:
    GlowGirl said:
    ZS55810 said:
    Status on the ticket request site has now changed from “request received” to “unfulfilled.” Just fyi 
    Yup! Two confirmed, Five unfulfilled for me.

    Sorry
    Well, those are five less tickets I will have to sell on F2F when I upgrade to GA =)

    Lmao, same here!!
  • BSullyBSully Posts: 1,200
    I didn't get an email, but I clicked on the link with my ticket request and it says this now for all my picks:

    Request 1
    Unfulfilled

    So.... now it's official.
    1998: Noblesville, IN 08-17
    2000: Noblesville, IN 08-18
    2003: Noblesville, IN 06-22
    2006: Cincinnati, OH 06-24
    2010: Noblesville, IN 05-07
    2016: Lexington, KY 04-26, Wrigley Field 2 08-22
    2018: Wrigley Field 1 08-18, Wrigley Field 2 08-20
    2022: St. Louis, MO 09-18
    2024: Noblesville, IN 08-26, Wrigley Field 1 08-29, Wrigley Field 2 08-31
  • SHZASHZA Posts: 3,933
    Jseeteenak said:
    i put in a bunch of dates and scored pairs in P1 Vancouver N1 & N2 and also Chicago N1. now to decide which show i will attend. 
    Hey man! You are a dedicated fan, hope to see you out there 
  • SHZASHZA Posts: 3,933
    GlowGirl said:
    NewfieintheUSA said:
    GlowGirl said:
    ZS55810 said:
    Status on the ticket request site has now changed from “request received” to “unfulfilled.” Just fyi 
    Yup! Two confirmed, Five unfulfilled for me.

    Sorry
    Well, those are five less tickets I will have to sell on F2F when I upgrade to GA =)

    Should only take a day or two 
  • RE4790RE4790 Posts: 801
    NewfieintheUSA said:
    SHZA said:
    BF25394 said:
    SHZA said:

    Another perfect 10 
    How do you know that this person only put in for these ten shows?
    Not relevant. They went 10 for 10 on these 10 shows. Since each draw is independent of other draws, it makes no difference if they put in for other shows or what their results were. For this group of shows, this person went 10-10. Would love to know the odds of that occurring 
    Really fn low. Let's assume odds to get selected for each individual show was 50% (which we know it isn't that high), the odds to get all 10 of these shows would be less than 0.1%. If you took it down to 40% odds per show you'd be at 0.01%.

    What are the odds of losing all 10 of those shows at a 50% win rate?
  • NewfieintheUSANewfieintheUSA Posts: 2,416
    RE4790 said:
    NewfieintheUSA said:
    SHZA said:
    BF25394 said:
    SHZA said:

    Another perfect 10 
    How do you know that this person only put in for these ten shows?
    Not relevant. They went 10 for 10 on these 10 shows. Since each draw is independent of other draws, it makes no difference if they put in for other shows or what their results were. For this group of shows, this person went 10-10. Would love to know the odds of that occurring 
    Really fn low. Let's assume odds to get selected for each individual show was 50% (which we know it isn't that high), the odds to get all 10 of these shows would be less than 0.1%. If you took it down to 40% odds per show you'd be at 0.01%.

    What are the odds of losing all 10 of those shows at a 50% win rate?
    Exactly the same as winning all
  • julia_amentjulia_ament Posts: 78
    Same here, unfulfilled for both MSG nights (my only entries for the NA tour this time, I've got a couple in Europe)
    São Paulo I & II - dec 2 & 3 2005 | São Paulo I & II - nov 3 & 4 2011 | Rio de Janeiro - nov 6 2011 | Ottawa - may 8 2016 | Wrigley I & II - aug 20 & 22 2016 | Temple of the Dog - Philly nov 4 2016 | Seattle I & II - aug 8 & 10 2018 | London I & II - july 8 & 9 2022  | Hamilton - sept 6 2022  | Toronto - sept. 8 2022

    "and sometimes is seen a strange spot in the sky
    a human being that was given to fly    "
  • yanknuckyanknuck Posts: 57
    Same here. Is it Friday yet?
  • hairgrowth2001hairgrowth2001 Posts: 421
    Unfulfilled for both Wrigley shows. I thought it would be pretty much a guarantee. They have to have had less tix this lotto.
  • GlowGirlGlowGirl Posts: 10,884
    edited February 21
    SHZA said:
    GlowGirl said:
    NewfieintheUSA said:
    GlowGirl said:
    ZS55810 said:
    Status on the ticket request site has now changed from “request received” to “unfulfilled.” Just fyi 
    Yup! Two confirmed, Five unfulfilled for me.

    Sorry
    Well, those are five less tickets I will have to sell on F2F when I upgrade to GA =)

    Should only take a day or two 
    For you I am sure. Maybe I will get lucky and hit two in one day like I did for Texas. However, that was after the time suck of months of refreshing.

    Post edited by GlowGirl on
  • kmcmanuskmcmanus Posts: 733
    edited February 21
    mpedone said:
    PJ-Cubs said:
    JeBurkhardt said:
    F2F should be interesting for Chicago, since you can pretty much ask whatever price you want on secondary sites. I am hoping there are people on here who have extra or decide that they aren't happy with their reserved tickets for Chicago and sell them at face value to those of us on here who were shut out in the lottery. I put up a ISO on GTF for Night 2 for that scenario. I guess this is a commercial for that thread! 
    Unless 10C changed their rules, fan club tickets can only be sold at face value and I hope they enforce that rule to the extent that they can.  There is no way that they can watch every sale but I have heard about people losing their membership and tickets for selling above face value.
     

    Except in states where there are laws preventing the restriction of resale. Illinois is one of those states.
    10C rules still say face-value only in IL, NY & CO, they just can’t make them non-transferable. You are still taking a risk with your membership by marking them up.
    Post edited by kmcmanus on
  • chiefnjkchiefnjk Posts: 302
    Unfulfilled for both Wrigley-unexpected. Unfulfilled for both Seattle-expected. Somehow 0 for 4. What a joke. 
  • JseeteenakJseeteenak Posts: 122
    SHZA said:
    Jseeteenak said:
    i put in a bunch of dates and scored pairs in P1 Vancouver N1 & N2 and also Chicago N1. now to decide which show i will attend. 
    Hey man! You are a dedicated fan, hope to see you out there 
    yes, hope to bump into the people i met last summer.
  • Ledbetterman10Ledbetterman10 Posts: 16,882
    Well, my ticket request was unfulfilled. What’s my next move?
    2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2, 2021: Sea. Hear. Now. 2022: Camden, 2024: Philly 2

    Pearl Jam bootlegs:
    http://wegotshit.blogspot.com
  • GlowGirlGlowGirl Posts: 10,884
    Ledbetterman10 said:
    Well, my ticket request was unfulfilled. What’s my next move?
    Alcohol?

  • Sugarloafer04Sugarloafer04 Posts: 462
    I went 5 of 6, Vegas X 2 P1, Fenway X 2 P1, MSG2 P1, only missed MSG1 which was a given seeing on how I hit night 2. 
    2016: Telluride, CO
    2018: Fenway 1
    2021: Sea.Hear.Now
    2022: San Diego, MSG, Camden 
    2023: Ft. Worth 1, Ft. Worth 2, Austin 1, Austin 2
    2024: Las Vegas 1, Las Vegas 2, Wrigley 1, Wrigley 2, MSG 1, MSG 2, Philly 2, Fenway 1, Fenway 2
  • RE4790RE4790 Posts: 801
    edited February 21
    NewfieintheUSA said:
    RE4790 said:
    NewfieintheUSA said:
    SHZA said:
    BF25394 said:
    SHZA said:

    Another perfect 10 
    How do you know that this person only put in for these ten shows?
    Not relevant. They went 10 for 10 on these 10 shows. Since each draw is independent of other draws, it makes no difference if they put in for other shows or what their results were. For this group of shows, this person went 10-10. Would love to know the odds of that occurring 
    Really fn low. Let's assume odds to get selected for each individual show was 50% (which we know it isn't that high), the odds to get all 10 of these shows would be less than 0.1%. If you took it down to 40% odds per show you'd be at 0.01%.

    What are the odds of losing all 10 of those shows at a 50% win rate?
    Exactly the same as winning all

    So if the folks winning all their pics was greater than 0.1% of the fan club, like more than 500 people did that, isnt the simplest answer that it wasnt actually 50% for most of the shows they selected but much higher?
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