How do you know that this person only put in for these ten shows?
Not relevant. They went 10 for 10 on these 10 shows. Since each draw is independent of other draws, it makes no difference if they put in for other shows or what their results were. For this group of shows, this person went 10-10. Would love to know the odds of that occurring
Really fn low. Let's assume odds to get selected for each individual show was 50% (which we know it isn't that high), the odds to get all 10 of these shows would be less than 0.1%. If you took it down to 40% odds per show you'd be at 0.01%.
What are the odds of losing all 10 of those shows at a 50% win rate?
Exactly the same as winning all
So if the folks winning all their pics was greater than 0.1% of the fan club, like more than 500 people did that, isnt the simplest answer that it wasnt actually 50% for most of the shows they selected but much higher?
I didn't get an email, but I clicked on the link with my ticket request and it says this now for all my picks:
Request 1
Unfulfilled
So.... now it's official.
Same. Zero emails but have been refreshing my Requests page and it finally updated at 1:56 PST. Of my 3 requests one did come back confirmed with 2 unfulfilled. Perhaps there was a little light at the end of the tunnel, albeit dim.
"Said he'll see me on the flip side"
Toledo 96 ◘ Columbus 00 ◘ Pittsburgh 00 ◘ Cleveland 03 ◘ Pittsburgh 03 ◘ Alpine Valley 03 ◘ Noblesville 03 ◘ Columbus 03 ◘ Toledo 04 VFC ◘ London, ON 05 ◘ Cleveland 06 ◘ Philly I & II 06 ◘ Cincinnati 06 ◘ VIC 07 ◘ MSG II 08 ◘ EV Memphis 09 ◘ Columbus 10 ◘ Cleveland 10 ◘ EV Boston 11 ◘ PJ20 ◘ Wrigley Field 13 ◘ Buffalo 13 ◘ Detroit 14 ◘ Louisville BNB 22 ◘ Noblesville 23 (24)?
SO I FGURED OUT WHAT TM DID... They randomly Selected a starting confirmation number... and used it for all the ticket confirmations .. Example, say there are 100,000 entries total.. ... TM randomly decided to start the assignments at 50,000 ( Example for ref) then 50001 and 50002 and so on were assigned with flag Show ID, then seat choice GA.. it would run for all entries with those parameters until tickets were exhausted... Then the same run would be done for P1 seats, then P2... I believe they started ALL shows with the same confirmation number and for a select few who were close to that number ( within 500) per show would hit GA. The only time they miss is if they were near that 500 order theashold for the first GA and second GA was a little more popular and that pushed them out of the allocation. For people who hit 9 plus GA they order number had to be very close to that starting number... for people who where shut out their number was just on the other side of that starting number ( Like 49999) .... Thoughts?
GA/P1 - feels like its own GA only option. The GA pit is a different color. P1 is the blue P2 was the orange
It wasn't particularly clear but I feel like the P stands for price. Since seated/GA are the same price they get tagged with the P1
Except that the option said "GA or P1 Reserved - Standing or Seating", so it wasn't just price.
Correct
It is possible that the Reserved P1 in option one refers to the seats on the floor, while the Reserved P1 in option two refers to the sections in the lower bowl of the arena (with Reserved P2 being the sections in the upper bowl of the arena).
I speculated earlier that there were no doubt people who did not choose all three options and that this would result in better chances of those people being shut out, and this thread is proving that assertion right. People may have had different reasons for not checking all three boxes. Some preferred getting no ticket to getting a ticket in P2. Some did not read the instructions. Some did not understand the instructions. Some did not believe the instructions. Whatever the reason, the result is that some people who would have gotten tickets if they had selected all three options ended up not getting tickets.
Reasonable response. I agree that the instructions were confusing or perhaps illogical, but I followed them anyway. My 2 shows had only the first 2 options. I chose both options and got Reserved for both shows.
Just to be clear, because you're using the word "agree"-- I don't think the instructions were confusing or illogical. I thought they were clear, and so did both of the other club members I talked to before submitting my requests.
Do these two people have the same chance of getting drawn for P1 seats? Yes/no and why?
Person A: Checked GA/P1 and did not draw GA Person B: Checked GA/P1 & P1 and did not draw GA
No, they don't have the same odds. Person A was only in one drawing. Person B was in two drawings. The first drawing filled out GA and the floor seats. The second drawing filled out the lower bowl seats.
Pure speculation. Nothing in the sign up page indicated any distinction between the two "P1 Reserved" options.
The fact that there were two options suggested that they were for different things.
They were different. One included the possibility of getting GA instead of P1, the other didn't. That doesn't suggest that "P1 Reserved" means two different things. They could have said P1 Reserved Floor if that was the case.
Yes, I agree that they were different. But I'm suggesting that they may have been different because they were making a distinction between P1 seats on the floor behind GA and P1 seats in the lower bowl above the floor. I would agree that, if they were making this distinction, it was at best implied.
You know, the impetus for this was you tut-tutting others about how you and your two friends agreed how clear and logical this was and now we're onto inferring, suggesting, may, if, and implied.
SO I FGURED OUT WHAT TM DID... They randomly Selected a starting confirmation number... and used it for all the ticket confirmations .. Example, say there are 100,000 entries total.. ... TM randomly decided to start the assignments at 50,000 ( Example for ref) then 50001 and 50002 and so on were assigned with flag Show ID, then seat choice GA.. it would run for all entries with those parameters until tickets were exhausted... Then the same run would be done for P1 seats, then P2... I believe they started ALL shows with the same confirmation number and for a select few who were close to that number ( within 500) per show would hit GA. The only time they miss is if they were near that 500 order theashold for the first GA and second GA was a little more popular and that pushed them out of the allocation. For people who hit 9 plus GA they order number had to be very close to that starting number... for people who where shut out their number was just on the other side of that starting number ( Like 49999) .... Thoughts?
Well, my ticket request was unfulfilled. What’s my next move?
Alcohol?
Well I mean how do I get tickets now? The whole process is confusing.
I know. I was just kidding. If you get a Verified Fan code you can try for a ticket at the public sale on Friday. Or you can wait for F2F to open and spend every waking minute of your day refreshing like a lunatic like many of us did last year.
How do you know that this person only put in for these ten shows?
Not relevant. They went 10 for 10 on these 10 shows. Since each draw is independent of other draws, it makes no difference if they put in for other shows or what their results were. For this group of shows, this person went 10-10. Would love to know the odds of that occurring
Really fn low. Let's assume odds to get selected for each individual show was 50% (which we know it isn't that high), the odds to get all 10 of these shows would be less than 0.1%. If you took it down to 40% odds per show you'd be at 0.01%.
What are the odds of losing all 10 of those shows at a 50% win rate?
Exactly the same as winning all
So if the folks winning all their pics was greater than 0.1% of the fan club, like more than 500 people did that, isnt the simplest answer that it wasnt actually 50% for most of the shows they selected but much higher?
No, because there's zero chance odds for MSG and Philly were much higher than 50%. The simplest answer is TM botched something as they've done in the past
SO I FGURED OUT WHAT TM DID... They randomly Selected a starting confirmation number... and used it for all the ticket confirmations .. Example, say there are 100,000 entries total.. ... TM randomly decided to start the assignments at 50,000 ( Example for ref) then 50001 and 50002 and so on were assigned with flag Show ID, then seat choice GA.. it would run for all entries with those parameters until tickets were exhausted... Then the same run would be done for P1 seats, then P2... I believe they started ALL shows with the same confirmation number and for a select few who were close to that number ( within 500) per show would hit GA. The only time they miss is if they were near that 500 order theashold for the first GA and second GA was a little more popular and that pushed them out of the allocation. For people who hit 9 plus GA they order number had to be very close to that starting number... for people who where shut out their number was just on the other side of that starting number ( Like 49999) .... Thoughts?
I like this theory for the same (2) shows for the same city but not the whole tour based on data I've seen.
Noblesville 5.7.2010. Lexington 4.26.2016. Nashville 9.16.2022. St Louis 9.18.2022. Chicago 1 9.5.2023. Chicago 2 9.7.2023. *Noblesville 9.10.2023* (Gutted) Seattle 5.30.2024 Noblesville 8.26.2024 Chicago 8.29.2024 Chicago 8.31.2024
SO I FGURED OUT WHAT TM DID... They randomly Selected a starting confirmation number... and used it for all the ticket confirmations .. Example, say there are 100,000 entries total.. ... TM randomly decided to start the assignments at 50,000 ( Example for ref) then 50001 and 50002 and so on were assigned with flag Show ID, then seat choice GA.. it would run for all entries with those parameters until tickets were exhausted... Then the same run would be done for P1 seats, then P2... I believe they started ALL shows with the same confirmation number and for a select few who were close to that number ( within 500) per show would hit GA. The only time they miss is if they were near that 500 order theashold for the first GA and second GA was a little more popular and that pushed them out of the allocation. For people who hit 9 plus GA they order number had to be very close to that starting number... for people who where shut out their number was just on the other side of that starting number ( Like 49999) .... Thoughts?
I like this theory for the same shows for the same city but not the whole tour based on data I've seen.
Since each show would have different demand, the range of entries that got the same result would be wider ( lower demand) and more narrow ( higher demand) could skew the results of the data you have. For some to hit so up to 9 shows in the GA, the start point would have to be consistent... I would say we need to compare results against confirmation IDs..
Well, my ticket request was unfulfilled. What’s my next move?
Alcohol?
Well I mean how do I get tickets now? The whole process is confusing.
I know. I was just kidding. If you get a Verified Fan code you can try for a ticket at the public sale on Friday. Or you can wait for F2F to open and spend every waking minute of your day refreshing like a lunatic like many of us did last year.
How do I get a verified fan code? And what is F2F? Thanks for your help. I’ve been kinda out of the loop since putting in for tenclub tix last week.
Well, my ticket request was unfulfilled. What’s my next move?
Alcohol?
Well I mean how do I get tickets now? The whole process is confusing.
I know. I was just kidding. If you get a Verified Fan code you can try for a ticket at the public sale on Friday. Or you can wait for F2F to open and spend every waking minute of your day refreshing like a lunatic like many of us did last year.
How do I get a verified fan code? And what is F2F? Thanks for your help. I’ve been kinda out of the loop since putting in for tenclub tix last week.
SO I FGURED OUT WHAT TM DID... They randomly Selected a starting confirmation number... and used it for all the ticket confirmations .. Example, say there are 100,000 entries total.. ... TM randomly decided to start the assignments at 50,000 ( Example for ref) then 50001 and 50002 and so on were assigned with flag Show ID, then seat choice GA.. it would run for all entries with those parameters until tickets were exhausted... Then the same run would be done for P1 seats, then P2... I believe they started ALL shows with the same confirmation number and for a select few who were close to that number ( within 500) per show would hit GA. The only time they miss is if they were near that 500 order theashold for the first GA and second GA was a little more popular and that pushed them out of the allocation. For people who hit 9 plus GA they order number had to be very close to that starting number... for people who where shut out their number was just on the other side of that starting number ( Like 49999) .... Thoughts?
I like this theory for the same shows for the same city but not the whole tour based on data I've seen.
Since each show would have different demand, the range of entries that got the same result would be wider ( lower demand) and more narrow ( higher demand) could skew the results of the data you have. For some to hit so up to 9 shows in the GA, the start point would have to be consistent... I would say we need to compare results against confirmation IDs..
I see your point, but I know people who got GA both nights to high demand shows like Wrigley/Fenway but shut out for other shows. Hence, my city specific speculation to your point about how it was done.
Well, my ticket request was unfulfilled. What’s my next move?
Alcohol?
Well I mean how do I get tickets now? The whole process is confusing.
I know. I was just kidding. If you get a Verified Fan code you can try for a ticket at the public sale on Friday. Or you can wait for F2F to open and spend every waking minute of your day refreshing like a lunatic like many of us did last year.
How do I get a verified fan code? And what is F2F? Thanks for your help. I’ve been kinda out of the loop since putting in for tenclub tix last week.
F2f is just people selling their tickets back through tickmaster at face value
PJ: 2013: London (ON); Buffalo; 2014: Cincinnati; 2016: Sunrise, Miami, Toronto 1-2, Wrigley 2; 2018: London (UK) 1, Milan, Padova, Sea 2, Wrigley 1-2, Fenway 1-2; 2021: SHN, Ohana, Ohana Encore 1-2; 2022: LA 1-2, Phx, Oak 1-2, Fresno, Copenhagen, Hyde Park 1-2; Quebec, Ottawa, Hamilton, Toronto; MSG, Camden, Nashville, Louisville, St. Louis, OKC; 2023: St. Paul 1-2, Chicago 1-2; Fort Worth 2; Austin 1-2; 2024: Vancouver 1-2, LV 1-2, LA 1-2, Napa, Barcelona 1-2
EV Solo: 2017 Louisville and Franklin, 2018 Ohana, 2019 Innings Fest, Berlin, Düsseldorf, Dublin and Ohana; 2021 Ohana Friday (from beach) and Saturday; 2022 Earthlings Newark; 2023 Innings Fest and Benoraya 1-2.
Gutted: London 2 2018, Sacramento 2022, Noblesville 2023
SO I FGURED OUT WHAT TM DID... They randomly Selected a starting confirmation number... and used it for all the ticket confirmations .. Example, say there are 100,000 entries total.. ... TM randomly decided to start the assignments at 50,000 ( Example for ref) then 50001 and 50002 and so on were assigned with flag Show ID, then seat choice GA.. it would run for all entries with those parameters until tickets were exhausted... Then the same run would be done for P1 seats, then P2... I believe they started ALL shows with the same confirmation number and for a select few who were close to that number ( within 500) per show would hit GA. The only time they miss is if they were near that 500 order theashold for the first GA and second GA was a little more popular and that pushed them out of the allocation. For people who hit 9 plus GA they order number had to be very close to that starting number... for people who where shut out their number was just on the other side of that starting number ( Like 49999) .... Thoughts?
I like this theory for the same (2) shows for the same city but not the whole tour based on data I've seen.
Yep, could be reason for the high percentage of same results for 2 show cities.
Recieved a "confirmed" Ticketbasterd email for Missoula GA.
Apparently I got lucky. Only show I went for and it was GA or bust. $175 US per ticket is pretty pricey for me, might make it my last show. I'm getting old (like the band) and cheap, and I can see some great hungry bands for a lot less money.
I'm sure most of you who missed out will still get to a show through the fan to fan market. This community almost always comes through, if you're willing to put in the effort and be patient. Especially if your lucky enough to live in a city they're playing.
Well, my ticket request was unfulfilled. What’s my next move?
Alcohol?
Well I mean how do I get tickets now? The whole process is confusing.
I know. I was just kidding. If you get a Verified Fan code you can try for a ticket at the public sale on Friday. Or you can wait for F2F to open and spend every waking minute of your day refreshing like a lunatic like many of us did last year.
How do I get a verified fan code? And what is F2F? Thanks for your help. I’ve been kinda out of the loop since putting in for tenclub tix last week.
You had to have signed up for verified fan with Ticketmaster last week. There was a link to do that on the same page as when you signed up for the Ten Club presale. It is too late now to sign up if you haven't already. If you signed up you would have gotten a confirmation email from Ticketmaster letting you know you registered. If you didn't do that, F2F is fan to fan. At some point TM will open it and people who can't go to their shows can list their tickets for resale. Just be careful not to buy a premium ticket because they are all mixed in together. When F2F opens there will likely be a thread started here to let people know.
Noblesville 5.7.2010. Lexington 4.26.2016. Nashville 9.16.2022. St Louis 9.18.2022. Chicago 1 9.5.2023. Chicago 2 9.7.2023. *Noblesville 9.10.2023* (Gutted) Seattle 5.30.2024 Noblesville 8.26.2024 Chicago 8.29.2024 Chicago 8.31.2024
Well, my ticket request was unfulfilled. What’s my next move?
Alcohol?
Well I mean how do I get tickets now? The whole process is confusing.
I know. I was just kidding. If you get a Verified Fan code you can try for a ticket at the public sale on Friday. Or you can wait for F2F to open and spend every waking minute of your day refreshing like a lunatic like many of us did last year.
How do I get a verified fan code? And what is F2F? Thanks for your help. I’ve been kinda out of the loop since putting in for tenclub tix last week.
You can't if you didn't register for it last week
I see. So we were expected to put in a request for tenclub tickets AND this other sale? Was there a chance you could “win” both? Or was the Friday sale just a “just in case” sort of thing? Like if you didn’t get tenclub tickets, then you’re eligible for the Friday sale, but if you did get tenclub tickets, you just wouldn’t partake in the Friday sale?
I’m shit out of luck either way. Just curious as to how awful this system is versus how much blame I deserve myself for not looking deeply enough into this.
Well, my ticket request was unfulfilled. What’s my next move?
Alcohol?
Well I mean how do I get tickets now? The whole process is confusing.
I know. I was just kidding. If you get a Verified Fan code you can try for a ticket at the public sale on Friday. Or you can wait for F2F to open and spend every waking minute of your day refreshing like a lunatic like many of us did last year.
How do I get a verified fan code? And what is F2F? Thanks for your help. I’ve been kinda out of the loop since putting in for tenclub tix last week.
You had to have signed up for verified fan with Ticketmaster last week. There was a link to do that on the same page as when you signed up for the Ten Club presale. It is too late now to sign up if you haven't already. If you signed up you would have gotten a confirmation email from Ticketmaster letting you know you registered. If you didn't do that, F2F is fan to fan. At some point TM will open it and people who can't go to their shows can list their tickets for resale. Just be careful not to buy a premium ticket because they are all mixed in together. When F2F opens there will likely be a thread started here to let people know.
Thanks for the info. Welp, looks like I’m going to be sitting this one out. Oh well.
SO I FGURED OUT WHAT TM DID... They randomly Selected a starting confirmation number... and used it for all the ticket confirmations .. Example, say there are 100,000 entries total.. ... TM randomly decided to start the assignments at 50,000 ( Example for ref) then 50001 and 50002 and so on were assigned with flag Show ID, then seat choice GA.. it would run for all entries with those parameters until tickets were exhausted... Then the same run would be done for P1 seats, then P2... I believe they started ALL shows with the same confirmation number and for a select few who were close to that number ( within 500) per show would hit GA. The only time they miss is if they were near that 500 order theashold for the first GA and second GA was a little more popular and that pushed them out of the allocation. For people who hit 9 plus GA they order number had to be very close to that starting number... for people who where shut out their number was just on the other side of that starting number ( Like 49999) .... Thoughts?
I like this theory for the same shows for the same city but not the whole tour based on data I've seen.
Since each show would have different demand, the range of entries that got the same result would be wider ( lower demand) and more narrow ( higher demand) could skew the results of the data you have. For some to hit so up to 9 shows in the GA, the start point would have to be consistent... I would say we need to compare results against confirmation IDs..
I see your point, but I know people who got GA both nights to high demand shows like Wrigley/Fenway but shut out for other shows. Hence, my city specific speculation to your point about how it was done.
Wrigley and Fenway could have been done separately and the parameters changed, ( larger GA pit than the arenas ) weren't those done last?
Comments
Same. Zero emails but have been refreshing my Requests page and it finally updated at 1:56 PST. Of my 3 requests one did come back confirmed with 2 unfulfilled. Perhaps there was a little light at the end of the tunnel, albeit dim.
Toledo 96 ◘ Columbus 00 ◘ Pittsburgh 00 ◘ Cleveland 03 ◘ Pittsburgh 03 ◘ Alpine Valley 03 ◘ Noblesville 03 ◘ Columbus 03 ◘ Toledo 04 VFC ◘ London, ON 05 ◘ Cleveland 06 ◘ Philly I & II 06 ◘ Cincinnati 06 ◘ VIC 07 ◘ MSG II 08 ◘ EV Memphis 09 ◘ Columbus 10 ◘ Cleveland 10 ◘ EV Boston 11 ◘ PJ20 ◘ Wrigley Field 13 ◘ Buffalo 13 ◘ Detroit 14 ◘ Louisville BNB 22 ◘ Noblesville 23 (24)?
Pearl Jam bootlegs:
http://wegotshit.blogspot.com
I like this theory for the same (2) shows for the same city but not the whole tour based on data I've seen.
SHOW COUNT: (157) 1990's=3, 2000's=53, 2010/20's=97, US=116, CAN=15, Europe=20 ,New Zealand=2, Australia=2
Mexico=1, Colombia=1
Upcoming: Ohana x2 Aucklandx2, Gold Coast, Melbournex2
Chicago 1 9.5.2023. Chicago 2 9.7.2023.
*Noblesville 9.10.2023* (Gutted)
Seattle 5.30.2024 Noblesville 8.26.2024 Chicago 8.29.2024 Chicago 8.31.2024
SHOW COUNT: (157) 1990's=3, 2000's=53, 2010/20's=97, US=116, CAN=15, Europe=20 ,New Zealand=2, Australia=2
Mexico=1, Colombia=1
Upcoming: Ohana x2 Aucklandx2, Gold Coast, Melbournex2
Pearl Jam bootlegs:
http://wegotshit.blogspot.com
SHOW COUNT: (157) 1990's=3, 2000's=53, 2010/20's=97, US=116, CAN=15, Europe=20 ,New Zealand=2, Australia=2
Mexico=1, Colombia=1
Upcoming: Ohana x2 Aucklandx2, Gold Coast, Melbournex2
Gutted: London 2 2018, Sacramento 2022, Noblesville 2023
9.03-04.11 PJ20!!!
7.19.13 - Wrigley!!!
10.19.14, 10.20.14 (Yield!!)
Apparently I got lucky. Only show I went for and it was GA or bust. $175 US per ticket is pretty pricey for me, might make it my last show. I'm getting old (like the band) and cheap, and I can see some great hungry bands for a lot less money.
I'm sure most of you who missed out will still get to a show through the fan to fan market. This community almost always comes through, if you're willing to put in the effort and be patient. Especially if your lucky enough to live in a city they're playing.
I wish everyone the best of luck going further.
Chicago 1 9.5.2023. Chicago 2 9.7.2023.
*Noblesville 9.10.2023* (Gutted)
Seattle 5.30.2024 Noblesville 8.26.2024 Chicago 8.29.2024 Chicago 8.31.2024
I’m shit out of luck either way. Just curious as to how awful this system is versus how much blame I deserve myself for not looking deeply enough into this.
Pearl Jam bootlegs:
http://wegotshit.blogspot.com
Pearl Jam bootlegs:
http://wegotshit.blogspot.com