Will we get live PJ shows, as we knew them, in 2021?

PB11041

lastexit78 said:

PB11041 said:

This is an impossible question to answer as worded, and the respnoses are equally off.  To those who think the band is not coming out until this 100% taken care of, then you are never seeing the band again.  Covid-19 is never going to go away, it is extremely likley it, like influezna strains will have constant seasonal mutations and flare-ups.  The combination that the virus has proabably infected somewhere between 25-40% of the US population by the end of January (this is a large range because the scientific data is always impercise on how many are infected asymptomatically or even syptomatically but not reported/tested)  with vaccination probably puts covid-19 in the rearview roughly about the June time frame.  It is more likely they will feel comfortable with a Ohana festival than an Arena show, but it is still unlikely that 2021 happens.  It is going to take time for people to adjust to the idea that this virus is with us in some capacity and we are forced to live with it. The Flu was a thing you just think sucks but no one really stopped to think that people die from the flu, because we just become accustom to it because it was an acceptable percentage risk.  It is probably going to take at least another year for most people to wrap their head around that with Covid-19 as it becomes less prevelant but still in the world we live. 

I agree with all of this but we need to stop using the flu as a comparison. In either a positive or negative context. Covid-19 is at least 10 times deadlier than the flu and spreads asymptomatically which is really bad. The good news, we already have vaccines up to 95% effective. That's something we've never remotely approached with flu vaccines. The flu mutates erratically from year to year. Hence why our vaccines are not very effective. I'm not going to ramble on about this stuff but Covid-19 doesn't have the capacity as a single stranded virus to change like the flu. Covid-19 would rather mutate into a less deadlier but contagious form for its own survival. These mutations could very well effect treatments but are not likely to impact vaccines. Also these new vaccines are mRNA and can quickly be changed. Bottom line is yes Covid-19 is here to stay but not in the context many in the media want to scare you with. Science already has the tools to crush this virus in a way we never had with the flu. We will also have antivirals treatments a year from now. There are a lot in the pipeline but vaccine development correctly took priority. If Covid-19 is still causing havoc in 5 years its because WE failed miserably, not because it morphed into some Frankenstein virus. We've been failing miserably at containing the virus for 10 months so it wouldn't shock me. Especially if immunity is only a year or so, unlikely but nobody really knows. If Covid-19 was a flu variant and spread asymptomatically we'd be toast. Consider ourselves fortunate to be living through a mid grade pandemic, this isn't the plague. PJ will eventually hit the stage again, just gonna take a long time for this all to play out. I'd be more than happy with shows in 2022 at this point. A lot went right if that's the case. Couple of cool scientific articles below...

https://asm.org/Articles/2020/July/COVID-19-and-the-Flu 

https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/covid-19-is-the-virus-mutating/
 

wasn't comparing it ot the flu in any other sense that this is a permenant reality.  it is not going away, even with a vaccine.  People will still be getting covid, and some people will die from it, even when we have proper combination rate of vaccination and natural infection.  It is jut the way it is.  We have vaccines that are potentially 95% effective.  And influeznas have never been targeted by mRNA vaccination.  Moving forward, they will be.  The shinny side of this awful occurrence, is that the debate about the safety of mRNA based vaccination is almost certainly now going to be over.  

PB11041

PJNB said:

Reports are out now that the summer Olympics are in jeopardy again. It has not so much to do with being safe in the summer or not(at least for the time being) and more to do with the planning and the thousands of people involved  leading up to the games. This is the same scenario with the summer festivals planned in Europe. Though unlikely, I still think there is a chance shows can happen this summer if the vaccine distribution ramps up with the new ones being approved. That does nothing however for all of the workers that need to be on site in the spring months getting those areas set up. 

issue with the Olympics is more around Japanese medical regulation.  They won't review the data done else where and just administer it, they are bound by their laws to go through their own trial period which it seems would not allow vaccination to begin in mass in the country until the end of May.  

RatherStarved

Olympics have a better chance than shows because they can be a TV event without live fans.

PJNB

PB11041 said:

PJNB said:

Reports are out now that the summer Olympics are in jeopardy again. It has not so much to do with being safe in the summer or not(at least for the time being) and more to do with the planning and the thousands of people involved  leading up to the games. This is the same scenario with the summer festivals planned in Europe. Though unlikely, I still think there is a chance shows can happen this summer if the vaccine distribution ramps up with the new ones being approved. That does nothing however for all of the workers that need to be on site in the spring months getting those areas set up. 

issue with the Olympics is more around Japanese medical regulation.  They won't review the data done else where and just administer it, they are bound by their laws to go through their own trial period which it seems would not allow vaccination to begin in mass in the country until the end of May.  

Was not aware of that thanks

RatherStarved said:

Olympics have a better chance than shows because they can be a TV event without live fans.

True but the set up for the Olympics is massive even with no fans involved. 

RiotAct41

No

bbiggs said:

One thing that concerns me is the government (federal and/or state) continuing to intervene once we've reached a point that everyone that wants a vaccination has received one.  There is a large percentage of the population that is opting against it, at least thus far.  Even if vaccination timelines are met (big if), there could very well be upwards of 50% of the population that has not gotten it, and won't.  So then what?  The virus will still present on a larger scale than what they're hoping for.  In that case, I don't see concerts happening anytime soon, but of course I hope to be wrong.

Then the media can move on from mask shaming to vaccine shaming.   It’ll be great!!!  (For them).

RiotAct41

No

Weston1283 said:

pjl44 said:

PJNB said:

Eraserhead said:

pjl44 said:

Eraserhead said:

No.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-55536355

The festival industry is lobbying the government for aid. The headline makes it seem more dramatic. 

They can lobby until the cows come home, but until the virus is gone and everyone has had a vacine, mass gatherings for music will not take place any time soon.

This virus will never be gone and everyone is not getting vaccinated. Not even close. Look at the numbers of health professionals that are already denying taking the vaccine on the first roll out. When the general public has its chance too the numbers will be even higher. What then? 

It is obvious that we are at the mercy of the government and health officials that will be making this call but if everyone that wants to be vaccinated is and our hospitals are not struggling what are we waiting for?

100% agree. At that point, you need to open venues, bars, restaurants, etc. We'll have reached the point where things will be for the foreseeable future. Let people get back to work and if someone wants to risk going unvaccinated, that's on them.

Another thing that has to be remembered is most people who are declining the vaccine are on the "im young and healthy" train.  It is fact that young and healthy people can spread the virus, which is the main danger right now, but it likely won't harm them in a major fashion.  

So if we can get the older folks and people with pre existing conditions vaccinated (I imagine almost all of them will elect to do so), this alone will significantly relieve the burden of our health care facilities, which is the leading reason we still have the lockdowns and restrictions in place.  Getting through the first two phases of the graphic I posted above will significantly improve this entire situation.  

Yes someone young and healthy CAN get sick and die, but the odds of this happening are pretty low.  So in a way, it may be OK if some of this young and healthy population elect to not get vaccinated, and society will be able to move on just fine.  Coronavirus is here, it will always be here to some degree, it will mutate and continue to mutate for the next 20-30 years or longer.  We just need to get to a place where thousands of people aren't dying per day, which can happen when the at risk population is vaccinated.

BINGO.

BF89905

No

pjl44 said:

2-feign-reluctance said:

Not a chance. Too much to be done and nobody is in charge. 2022, maybe 2023. 

#didntwastemyshot 

What makes you say this? States won't allow it? People won't go? Problems with vaccine distribution? This is an extremely pessimistic take.

Pessimistic, yes, but scientifically grounded I would contest. There's no chance that Pearl Jam plays a show in 2021. I was stunned when they announced their intentions for Europe months ago as pandemics take at least 1.5 years to work through in a best case scenario - that's what history has taught us. 

What society and epidemiologists couldn't foresee was just how selfish and purposely uninformed (and disregard scientific evidence) so many people would remain since March 2020.

However, epidemiologists, for the better part of six months have forecasted a disastrous winter season in North America.

It's shameful that Ontario, Canada is currently being guided by a government that places the economy over people's health time and again. These decision makers should be held accountable for the people passing away in long term care homes and elsewhere.

 Hey, let's not give essential workers 'sick leave' pay, and they'll show up to work sick because they need to put food on their family's table..... Waiting on a vaccine as the province plays chicken, and let's mitigate this pandemic, is negligence if there ever was a clear example of such behaviour.

Be proactive instead of reactive! Elected and appointed leaders need to pay attention and familiarize themselves with history.

Be safe everyone..... a late night rant

Weston1283

Yes

lastexitlondon

No

lastexit78 said:

PB11041 said:

This is an impossible question to answer as worded, and the respnoses are equally off.  To those who think the band is not coming out until this 100% taken care of, then you are never seeing the band again.  Covid-19 is never going to go away, it is extremely likley it, like influezna strains will have constant seasonal mutations and flare-ups.  The combination that the virus has proabably infected somewhere between 25-40% of the US population by the end of January (this is a large range because the scientific data is always impercise on how many are infected asymptomatically or even syptomatically but not reported/tested)  with vaccination probably puts covid-19 in the rearview roughly about the June time frame.  It is more likely they will feel comfortable with a Ohana festival than an Arena show, but it is still unlikely that 2021 happens.  It is going to take time for people to adjust to the idea that this virus is with us in some capacity and we are forced to live with it. The Flu was a thing you just think sucks but no one really stopped to think that people die from the flu, because we just become accustom to it because it was an acceptable percentage risk.  It is probably going to take at least another year for most people to wrap their head around that with Covid-19 as it becomes less prevelant but still in the world we live. 

I agree with all of this but we need to stop using the flu as a comparison. In either a positive or negative context. Covid-19 is at least 10 times deadlier than the flu and spreads asymptomatically which is really bad. The good news, we already have vaccines up to 95% effective. That's something we've never remotely approached with flu vaccines. The flu mutates erratically from year to year. Hence why our vaccines are not very effective. I'm not going to ramble on about this stuff but Covid-19 doesn't have the capacity as a single stranded virus to change like the flu. Covid-19 would rather mutate into a less deadlier but contagious form for its own survival. These mutations could very well effect treatments but are not likely to impact vaccines. Also these new vaccines are mRNA and can quickly be changed. Bottom line is yes Covid-19 is here to stay but not in the context many in the media want to scare you with. Science already has the tools to crush this virus in a way we never had with the flu. We will also have antivirals treatments a year from now. There are a lot in the pipeline but vaccine development correctly took priority. If Covid-19 is still causing havoc in 5 years its because WE failed miserably, not because it morphed into some Frankenstein virus. We've been failing miserably at containing the virus for 10 months so it wouldn't shock me. Especially if immunity is only a year or so, unlikely but nobody really knows. If Covid-19 was a flu variant and spread asymptomatically we'd be toast. Consider ourselves fortunate to be living through a mid grade pandemic, this isn't the plague. PJ will eventually hit the stage again, just gonna take a long time for this all to play out. I'd be more than happy with shows in 2022 at this point. A lot went right if that's the case. Couple of cool scientific articles below...

https://asm.org/Articles/2020/July/COVID-19-and-the-Flu 

https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/covid-19-is-the-virus-mutating/
 

Great Post  . My kind 

PJNB

I have been behind Fauci most of the way with all of this mess but why does he keep moving the goal posts on heard immunity numbers? Also he knows and we all know 70-85% of the population will not be vaccinated by the fall no matter how good the rollout is. There are too many kids and antivaxxers in the population to come even close to those numbers. I have said it before but there is a large chance that if the vaccine rollout even goes half ok we will be sitting around looking for people to vaccinate this fall and there will be very little people looking to do so. Then what does that mean for live shows when we are know wheres near heard immunity? 


https://www.stereogum.com/2112632/dr-anthony-fauci-says-live-music-could-be-back-this-fall/news/?fbclid=IwAR3M3sMHvrayubs2m8SC2zWMJOvbzI0VcDn6hb3YC3cym9H8mp8T4RWbB8w

The New York Times reports that Fauci had a virtual conference on Saturday with people in the performing-arts world. During that call, Fauci gave a vague timeline for when music venues and theaters might be able to reopen. It’ll require American authorities vaccinating somewhere between 70-85% of the population, bringing us to herd immunity.

Here’s what Fauci said:

If everything goes right, this is will occur some time in the fall of 2021, so that by the time we get to the early to mid-fall, you can have people feeling safe performing onstage as well as people in the audience… I think you can then start getting back to almost full capacity of seating. We’ll be back in the theaters — performers will be performing, audiences will be enjoying it. It will happen.

PeterED

No

BF89905 said:

pjl44 said:

2-feign-reluctance said:

Not a chance. Too much to be done and nobody is in charge. 2022, maybe 2023. 

#didntwastemyshot 

What makes you say this? States won't allow it? People won't go? Problems with vaccine distribution? This is an extremely pessimistic take.

Pessimistic, yes, but scientifically grounded I would contest. There's no chance that Pearl Jam plays a show in 2021. I was stunned when they announced their intentions for Europe months ago as pandemics take at least 1.5 years to work through in a best case scenario - that's what history has taught us. 

What society and epidemiologists couldn't foresee was just how selfish and purposely uninformed (and disregard scientific evidence) so many people would remain since March 2020.

However, epidemiologists, for the better part of six months have forecasted a disastrous winter season in North America.

It's shameful that Ontario, Canada is currently being guided by a government that places the economy over people's health time and again. These decision makers should be held accountable for the people passing away in long term care homes and elsewhere.

 Hey, let's not give essential workers 'sick leave' pay, and they'll show up to work sick because they need to put food on their family's table..... Waiting on a vaccine as the province plays chicken, and let's mitigate this pandemic, is negligence if there ever was a clear example of such behaviour.

Be proactive instead of reactive! Elected and appointed leaders need to pay attention and familiarize themselves with history.

Be safe everyone..... a late night rant

Bravo.

As a fellow Ontarian who has watched our provincial gov’t make avoidable mistakes at almost every turn I share the frustration that is so clear on your post.
i don’t see concerts happening here until the fall of 2021. Even that will be touch and go given the immunization schedule that we have here.

LukinFan

No

https://www.pollstar.com/article/dr-fauci-forecasts-fall-2021-for-venue-reopening-147125

YourLightMadeUsStars

No

Unfortunately I agree with those saying 2021 will not happen, at least not "as we knew it".  I honestly don't ever seeing these types of events going back to "normal", similar to the 9/11 references on airports and travel changing for good. I don't know how it will work but it's hard to imagine being packed in like we used to. I've been wrong on plenty of things and I sincerely hope this is another case..  Does anyone else ever catch themselves cringing when you see people not wearing masks or hugging strangers while watching old movies?  I feel conditioned. 

In hindsight I am so thankful that the Mrs. agreed to jump on a plane on Sept 4th, 2018 and go see Pearl Jam in Boston.  Snagged the tickets through a ten club drop the day before, arranged a babysitter, and then got a couple plane tickets.  Had a bite & few drinks after the show and flew right back to Canada without sleeping.  Unforgettable experience even without knowing what would come. 

Still hanging on to my tickets for the four CDN shows and waiting patiently like the rest of you for good news. I'd like to wait until we can continue on with sell out crowds so that it doesn't become a cluster fuck with reduced seating and then having to compete for your tickets back with only 50% of them available or whatever.  

demetrios

No

YourLightMadeUsStars said:

Still hanging on to my tickets for the four CDN shows and waiting patiently like the rest of you for good news. I'd like to wait until we can continue on with sell out crowds so that it doesn't become a cluster fuck with reduced seating and then having to compete for your tickets back with only 50% of them available or whatever.  

Same. Can't believe it's been a year ago today the 2020 tour was confirmed.

chiefnjk

Yes

At least in the U.S., if at least half of adults 18+ get vaccinated, community spread could be severely curtailed by early summer (June). At that point, the vaccine is generally available to everyone, cases are way down (due to both vaccinated and natural immunity populations) and we are living in a new normal. The virus could be around for years or forever. The goal can't be zero cases before life as we knew it (or something close to it) resumes, it's just not realistic. We need to protect immunocompromised and vulnerable populations. As Fauci and others have said, don't let "perfect" be the enemy of good. My guess is PJ resumes with outdoor shows in September as planned with arena shows (including the spring 2020 US/Can dates) to follow in October. When it's your turn, please get vaccinated. 

Zod

chiefnjk said:

At least in the U.S., if at least half of adults 18+ get vaccinated, community spread could be severely curtailed by early summer (June). At that point, the vaccine is generally available to everyone, cases are way down (due to both vaccinated and natural immunity populations) and we are living in a new normal. The virus could be around for years or forever. The goal can't be zero cases before life as we knew it (or something close to it) resumes, it's just not realistic. We need to protect immunocompromised and vulnerable populations. As Fauci and others have said, don't let "perfect" be the enemy of good. My guess is PJ resumes with outdoor shows in September as planned with arena shows (including the spring 2020 US/Can dates) to follow in October. When it's your turn, please get vaccinated. 

Maybe.   How comfortable are people going to be going to concerts if only 50% of people are immune.   For me, if I had the vaccine, absolutely I'll go.  Once i've immune my concern will wane.

This will create a concert logistical issue. They need to fill the seats to make the concerts work. If a sizable portion of the population isn't comfortable going, they won't be able to fill the seats.

Here in Canada it seems like next fall is best case scenario for the vaccine being rolled out to everyone that want's one.   Progress thus far is not on pace for that (but it's early)..

I feel like summer concert's might be too early.. Fall seems best case scenario, but if vaccine rollouts go out slower than expect it could be longer :( 

Casi007

No

I am doubtful we will see shows how we knew them pre-COVID but I'll remain hopeful. 

thomascbullock

YourLightMadeUsStars said:

Does anyone else ever catch themselves cringing when you see people not wearing masks or hugging strangers while watching old movies?  I feel conditioned.

I’ve found myself having some of that same reaction. Societally, we’ve got to fight like hell against this feeling. All the forces of inertia are going to try and stop us returning to the status quo ante, but we can’t let covid create a fundamental change in the way human interaction works. 

I don’t know if I’m optimistic that packed stadiums will return, but I certainly hope they do. 

BloodMeridian80

Yes

This study gave me hope of a return to normalcy, but probably not 2021. Essentially, they found the likelihood is COVID becomes more like the common cold. Once people have received the vaccine or develop immunity from surviving it, the virus will still be around, but will have moved to the endemic phase and will behave like the other 4 coronaviruses currently in the endemic phase that cause primarily mild symptoms. Of course, the study leaves room for other outcomes given the unknowns that exist.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/01/11/science.abe6522

Casi007

No

Thanks for sharing this @BloodMeridian80