Will we get live PJ shows, as we knew them, in 2021?

bbiggs

Title says it all.  I’m not talking about half capacity, masked or distanced shows.  I’m talking about sold out arenas, sheds and stadium shows as we knew them pre-Covid. 

Lost In Ohio

We basically know they won't tour until it's absolutely 100% safe and all doubt is gone. They haven't come out and so, but given what we know about songs being paused halfway through and the band being one of the first to announce a postponement...

House money says no.

I'm thinking at least 3-4 months between the announcement and the first show, right? We could be well into June or July before "regular people" are eligible for the vaccines.

At a "best-case scenario" I'm thinking it could be October and we get a tour.

At this point, I'm hoping they're sharing ideas virtually. They don't all need to be together to record their own parts. I'm not optimistic, but why not tour two albums together?

Foriginal Sin

No

Nope

mcgruff10

No

Unfortunately my gut says no.  I don’t see europe happening or sea hear now.  2022 will be good to all of us.  

Zod

My answer is maybe.   If things go well with the vaccines maybe at the end of the year.

Best case scenario is the vaccines work and people that want them have them by the end of the summer.  That could lead to some fall dates.

I give it 30/70 change of seeing some dates by the end of the year.

bbiggs

No

9/4/18 last live show.  If what most of us think comes true then we’ll be staring down close to a 4 year hiatus. Damn. 

pjl44

Yes

Lost In Ohio said:

We basically know they won't tour until it's absolutely 100% safe and all doubt is gone. They haven't come out and so, but given what we know about songs being paused halfway through and the band being one of the first to announce a postponement...

House money says no.

I'm thinking at least 3-4 months between the announcement and the first show, right? We could be well into June or July before "regular people" are eligible for the vaccines.

At a "best-case scenario" I'm thinking it could be October and we get a tour.

At this point, I'm hoping they're sharing ideas virtually. They don't all need to be together to record their own parts. I'm not optimistic, but why not tour two albums together?

We already have the announcement for Europe so now it's just a matter of everyone crossing their fingers on vaccination efforts. I can see a path so I'll be the optimist and say yes.

Beyond what's already booked, I can see touring in general being scattershot out of the gate. It probably won't feel like a traditional Pearl Jam (or whoever) tour, but I think shows will happen. I can't wait to see one again.

pjl44

Yes

Re-reading the first post, I have to say I'm skeptical about full capacity. That's been on my mind a while. These questions specifically:

- Even when vaccinated will people immediately be ready to go back to shows?
- Will indoor shows suffer more than outdoor?
- Due to itchiness and financial reasons will there be a higher than usual number of bands looking to tour at once?
- Will higher supply, lower demand, and number of available venues result in bands playing smaller rooms than you might expect?

For the sake of the artists, I hope there is a ton of pent up demand and most concertgoers feel like I do. But I don't think anyone has a clue. You can make a convincing hypocritical argument from any angle. If there is a general skiddishness, I'm more than ready to see Pearl Jam in a theater, etc.

2-feign-reluctance

No

Not a chance. Too much to be done and nobody is in charge. 2022, maybe 2023. 

#didntwastemyshot 

Lost In Ohio

It's not just how one country/continent vaccinates, but a global effort.

Pearl Jam could sell 25,000 tickets in Timbuktu to fans of six different countries in other hemispheres.

What would help is if they announced many countries at the same time. People would be more likely to stay closer to home. If they sell tickets to seven different countries in Europe at the same time as they sold tickets to Canada, the USA and five different countries south of Mexico, people in Europe wouldn't be as likely to buy tickets to Brazil, Argentina and Canada.

But that's not their game plan.


It is going to be a total epic clusterf once things get back online. There's teams that need venues, plus seasonal acts, plus touring acts.

It could damn well be late 2022 until we see normalcy with bands touring again.

pjl44

Yes

2-feign-reluctance said:

Not a chance. Too much to be done and nobody is in charge. 2022, maybe 2023. 

#didntwastemyshot 

What makes you say this? States won't allow it? People won't go? Problems with vaccine distribution? This is an extremely pessimistic take.

RatherStarved

I wouldn’t bet too much on it but why not USA in the fall? If vaccines are available to all Americans who want them by then and they make a vaccine an entry requirement for the show I don’t see why it couldn’t happen.  Things would have to fall into place, but the key development that people are overlooking is that there are two highly effective vaccines already starting to roll out.  That itself is a minor miracle.  

MKSNYC

Late 2021 - limited US a maybe

tschav

No

They haven't cancelled anything yet... so there's a little hope of a rescheduled date announcement sometime this year. I'm really curious if they've contemplated a hiatus on GA or other floorplan/capacity rearrangements for the first few legs back on the road. 

BloodMeridian80

Yes

I’m hoping fall shows, and I think it’s possible, so yes. Though I doubt shows this year will be ‘exactly as we knew them’, I do think arena events in fall is possible with some safety ‘controls’ added. Barring a turn of events in vaccination rate I don’t think Europe shows will happen as scheduled.

2-feign-reluctance

No

pjl44 said:

2-feign-reluctance said:

Not a chance. Too much to be done and nobody is in charge. 2022, maybe 2023. 

#didntwastemyshot 

What makes you say this? States won't allow it? People won't go? Problems with vaccine distribution? This is an extremely pessimistic take.

Herd immunity will take all year, if not longer. Longer because our federal government will not step in, which if you ask me, is part of why we have a government. To step in and protect its citizens from disaster first and foremost. PJ won’t play to crowds until they feel risk is minimal IMO. Things will get better, just not in an ambitious time frame people are wanting or in the time frame the OP is putting out there. I say late 22’ or 23’ Would love to be wrong, but I just don’t think life is going to ever go back to the way it was. 

on2legs

I wish there was a “who knows” choice available.  

I think it all depends on how efficiently the US can roll out the vaccines.  I feel like the process will get better in the next few months and we should have a better idea of where we stand by then. 

The truth is.... no one knows. If you go back and read threads from six to eight months ago some of the experts posting here were telling us we wouldn’t even see a vaccine until 2022.  So to have a vaccine already approved and rolled out is huge. But time will tell and I’m choosing to remain optimistic that we get something outdoors this fall.  If not... 2022 will be a great year for music.  

Pap

Yes

The London shows will be the first ones in almost 2 years, and they'll be massive!

HailHailVitalogy

Yes

I see full capacity in November. As long as you prove you’re vaccinated and wear a mask. There is no way the NFL is going to start another season without fans or limited capacity. Sports teams will be the tell

bbiggs

No

HailHailVitalogy said:

I see full capacity in November. As long as you prove you’re vaccinated and wear a mask. There is no way the NFL is going to start another season without fans or limited capacity. Sports teams will be the tell

That’s quite a bit different from shows as we knew them.  A lot of folks aren’t going to go to a show with proof of vaccination or if a mask is required.  I’ll wait until we can do it the old-fashioned way, assuming we ever get there. 

F Me In The Brain

No

bbiggs said:

HailHailVitalogy said:

I see full capacity in November. As long as you prove you’re vaccinated and wear a mask. There is no way the NFL is going to start another season without fans or limited capacity. Sports teams will be the tell

That’s quite a bit different from shows as we knew them.  A lot of folks aren’t going to go to a show with proof of vaccination or if a mask is required.  I’ll wait until we can do it the old-fashioned way, assuming we ever get there. 

Agree. 

Showing your papers to be able to go to a show is total fucking bs and certainly is not the way to see a band, as we knew it.

Not saying I won't get the vaccine right away when available, just think showing your papers to see a concert is kinda fucked, and don't see Pearl Jam playing gigs where someone needs to do that.

pjl44

Yes

F Me In The Brain said:

bbiggs said:

HailHailVitalogy said:

I see full capacity in November. As long as you prove you’re vaccinated and wear a mask. There is no way the NFL is going to start another season without fans or limited capacity. Sports teams will be the tell

That’s quite a bit different from shows as we knew them.  A lot of folks aren’t going to go to a show with proof of vaccination or if a mask is required.  I’ll wait until we can do it the old-fashioned way, assuming we ever get there. 

Agree. 

Showing your papers to be able to go to a show is total fucking bs and certainly is not the way to see a band, as we knew it.

Not saying I won't get the vaccine right away when available, just think showing your papers to see a concert is kinda fucked, and don't see Pearl Jam playing gigs where someone needs to do that.

If vaccines are indeed widely available by April/May, it wouldn't be worth the effort and anguish for promoters or venues to ask for documentation or try to enforce mask requirements starting in the summer. It wouldn't shock me if there are isolated incidents, but really you're just accepting the risk. It's a different calculus with 90% effective vaccines vs. 60%. Again, all of this assuming current timelines hold.

stuckinline

No

HailHailVitalogy said:

I see full capacity in November. As long as you prove you’re vaccinated and wear a mask. There is no way the NFL is going to start another season without fans or limited capacity. Sports teams will be the tell

There is no way to ensure that people will wear a mask throughout the entire 3 hour show.

bootlegger10

No

At this point I don't think it will happen.  Europe in summer is too soon.  U.S. response is slow and fall 2021 could be pushing it.  Perhaps under Biden administration things may move quicker. 

Matts3221

No

Don’t want to add on to the bum out but no way is it happening in 2021

Merkin Baller

No

"As we knew them"?

Not a chance.

nando1979

No

As a European who is desperate for the euro tour to go ahead it breaks my heart to say no. The only slim possibility I see is for a US fall tour, but I still figure that's about a 10% chance of happening. In my opinion there is zero chance the euro tour happens unfortunately 

mcgruff10

No

At this point it would be nice if they canceled the spring 2020 tour and refund people their money.

bbiggs

No

mcgruff10 said:

At this point it would be nice if they canceled the spring 2020 tour and refund people their money.

I'm getting to this point as well.  I'm holding tickets to 3 shows still, but if we're staring down a 2+ year wait on those shows, and not knowing how they will look or which shows may get cancelled, it almost seems that scrapping the whole thing and starting over when they're ready to tour is the right move. 

Gibson

No

Arena shows or larger: 2022
Bands in reduced capacity, smaller venues: fall 2021 (depending on the state)

LukinFan

No

Even if the tour still happened somehow in 2021, they would have to redo the tickets. The tickets were sold as a sold-out show. There's no way we will have that in 2021. I was happy to get a refund when they offered them last year.