Nate Silver 538

HughFreakingDillon

dignin said:

static111 said:

I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters

I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around.

i'm personally stunned. i couldn't for the life of me understand in 2016 how even one person could vote for that piece of trash. the fact that MORE voted for him after this 4 year dumpster fire?

canadians and americans are clearly very different groups. I always thought we were more similar than that. 

Gern Blansten

HughFreakingDillon said:

dignin said:

static111 said:

I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters

I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around.

i'm personally stunned. i couldn't for the life of me understand in 2016 how even one person could vote for that piece of trash. the fact that MORE voted for him after this 4 year dumpster fire?

canadians and americans are clearly very different groups. I always thought we were more similar than that. 

Have you seen the movie "Idiocracy"?  Watch it....that's the trend line the USA is on

HughFreakingDillon

Gern Blansten said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

dignin said:

static111 said:

I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters

I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around.

i'm personally stunned. i couldn't for the life of me understand in 2016 how even one person could vote for that piece of trash. the fact that MORE voted for him after this 4 year dumpster fire?

canadians and americans are clearly very different groups. I always thought we were more similar than that. 

Have you seen the movie "Idiocracy"?  Watch it....that's the trend line the USA is on

i'll have to check it out. 

i mean, i thought this could happen here. we had that loser from dragon's den/shark tank try to run for the conservative leadership. he was easily rejected and never heard from again. he was going to be our trump. glad he failed. 

dignin

HughFreakingDillon said:

dignin said:

static111 said:

I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters

I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around.

i'm personally stunned. i couldn't for the life of me understand in 2016 how even one person could vote for that piece of trash. the fact that MORE voted for him after this 4 year dumpster fire?

canadians and americans are clearly very different groups. I always thought we were more similar than that. 

Thankfully, and I hope that holds.

I was thinking about it this morning, so around 40% of Americans want an authoritarian leader and around 20% couldn't give a fuck either way by not bothering to vote. Rough numbers but you get the idea.

America is in a bad way.

JimmyV

Outside it's America. Stay inside. 

Gern Blansten

HughFreakingDillon said:

Gern Blansten said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

dignin said:

static111 said:

I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters

I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around.

i'm personally stunned. i couldn't for the life of me understand in 2016 how even one person could vote for that piece of trash. the fact that MORE voted for him after this 4 year dumpster fire?

canadians and americans are clearly very different groups. I always thought we were more similar than that. 

Have you seen the movie "Idiocracy"?  Watch it....that's the trend line the USA is on

i'll have to check it out. 

i mean, i thought this could happen here. we had that loser from dragon's den/shark tank try to run for the conservative leadership. he was easily rejected and never heard from again. he was going to be our trump. glad he failed. 

It's a hilarious movie but it does make you wonder how accurate it might be.  It's from the guy that did Beavis & Butthead and Office Space

HughFreakingDillon

Gern Blansten said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

Gern Blansten said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

dignin said:

static111 said:

I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters

I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around.

i'm personally stunned. i couldn't for the life of me understand in 2016 how even one person could vote for that piece of trash. the fact that MORE voted for him after this 4 year dumpster fire?

canadians and americans are clearly very different groups. I always thought we were more similar than that. 

Have you seen the movie "Idiocracy"?  Watch it....that's the trend line the USA is on

i'll have to check it out. 

i mean, i thought this could happen here. we had that loser from dragon's den/shark tank try to run for the conservative leadership. he was easily rejected and never heard from again. he was going to be our trump. glad he failed. 

It's a hilarious movie but it does make you wonder how accurate it might be.  It's from the guy that did Beavis & Butthead and Office Space

LOL. I thought you were recommending a documentary. 

static111

HughFreakingDillon said:

Gern Blansten said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

Gern Blansten said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

dignin said:

static111 said:

I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters

I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around.

i'm personally stunned. i couldn't for the life of me understand in 2016 how even one person could vote for that piece of trash. the fact that MORE voted for him after this 4 year dumpster fire?

canadians and americans are clearly very different groups. I always thought we were more similar than that. 

Have you seen the movie "Idiocracy"?  Watch it....that's the trend line the USA is on

i'll have to check it out. 

i mean, i thought this could happen here. we had that loser from dragon's den/shark tank try to run for the conservative leadership. he was easily rejected and never heard from again. he was going to be our trump. glad he failed. 

It's a hilarious movie but it does make you wonder how accurate it might be.  It's from the guy that did Beavis & Butthead and Office Space

LOL. I thought you were recommending a documentary. 

At this point I’d call it a precognitive documentary.

Gern Blansten

HughFreakingDillon said:

Gern Blansten said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

Gern Blansten said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

dignin said:

static111 said:

I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters

I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around.

i'm personally stunned. i couldn't for the life of me understand in 2016 how even one person could vote for that piece of trash. the fact that MORE voted for him after this 4 year dumpster fire?

canadians and americans are clearly very different groups. I always thought we were more similar than that. 

Have you seen the movie "Idiocracy"?  Watch it....that's the trend line the USA is on

i'll have to check it out. 

i mean, i thought this could happen here. we had that loser from dragon's den/shark tank try to run for the conservative leadership. he was easily rejected and never heard from again. he was going to be our trump. glad he failed. 

It's a hilarious movie but it does make you wonder how accurate it might be.  It's from the guy that did Beavis & Butthead and Office Space

LOL. I thought you were recommending a documentary. 

I think that you might agree that it kind of is....:)

bootleg

HughFreakingDillon said:

dignin said:

static111 said:

I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters

I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around.

i'm personally stunned. i couldn't for the life of me understand in 2016 how even one person could vote for that piece of trash. the fact that MORE voted for him after this 4 year dumpster fire?

canadians and americans are clearly very different groups. I always thought we were more similar than that. 

Trust me, we can’t understand it here either.  I’m usually pretty decent about being able to step into someone else’s shoes and see how they view things.  I am unable to understand how someone is able to support this child of a president.  And that’s where the divide is.  We’re not so far apart on a lot of issues, but we are extremely divided on Trump.

MayDay10

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323991891453632512

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323993051073794053

Gern Blansten

bootleg said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

dignin said:

static111 said:

I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters

I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around.

i'm personally stunned. i couldn't for the life of me understand in 2016 how even one person could vote for that piece of trash. the fact that MORE voted for him after this 4 year dumpster fire?

canadians and americans are clearly very different groups. I always thought we were more similar than that. 

Trust me, we can’t understand it here either.  I’m usually pretty decent about being able to step into someone else’s shoes and see how they view things.  I am unable to understand how someone is able to support this child of a president.  And that’s where the divide is.  We’re not so far apart on a lot of issues, but we are extremely divided on Trump.

I was having this conversation this morning.  The tRumpsters that I know personally are not bad people.  They are not outwardly racist or even outwardly unintelligent.  To me they are just extremely ignorant.  They have no interest in political issues or determining why they believe what they believe.  It is definitely a team mentality and tRump is their quarterback.

bootleg

Gern Blansten said:

bootleg said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

dignin said:

static111 said:

I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters

I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around.

i'm personally stunned. i couldn't for the life of me understand in 2016 how even one person could vote for that piece of trash. the fact that MORE voted for him after this 4 year dumpster fire?

canadians and americans are clearly very different groups. I always thought we were more similar than that. 

Trust me, we can’t understand it here either.  I’m usually pretty decent about being able to step into someone else’s shoes and see how they view things.  I am unable to understand how someone is able to support this child of a president.  And that’s where the divide is.  We’re not so far apart on a lot of issues, but we are extremely divided on Trump.

I was having this conversation this morning.  The tRumpsters that I know personally are not bad people.  They are not outwardly racist or even outwardly unintelligent.  To me they are just extremely ignorant.  They have no interest in political issues or determining why they believe what they believe.  It is definitely a team mentality and tRump is their quarterback.

Which is sad because they are being lied to so badly.  We have to somehow figure out how to fight the battle over misinformation because critical thinking is losing out right now.

Gern Blansten

bootleg said:

Gern Blansten said:

bootleg said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

dignin said:

static111 said:

I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters

I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around.

i'm personally stunned. i couldn't for the life of me understand in 2016 how even one person could vote for that piece of trash. the fact that MORE voted for him after this 4 year dumpster fire?

canadians and americans are clearly very different groups. I always thought we were more similar than that. 

Trust me, we can’t understand it here either.  I’m usually pretty decent about being able to step into someone else’s shoes and see how they view things.  I am unable to understand how someone is able to support this child of a president.  And that’s where the divide is.  We’re not so far apart on a lot of issues, but we are extremely divided on Trump.

I was having this conversation this morning.  The tRumpsters that I know personally are not bad people.  They are not outwardly racist or even outwardly unintelligent.  To me they are just extremely ignorant.  They have no interest in political issues or determining why they believe what they believe.  It is definitely a team mentality and tRump is their quarterback.

Which is sad because they are being lied to so badly.  We have to somehow figure out how to fight the battle over misinformation because critical thinking is losing out right now.

I used to believe that....I would challenge people on FB like it was my duty to inform them.  It doesn't work.  They just think anyone like me is a brainwashed idiot because socialism, etc.

static111

bootleg said:

Gern Blansten said:

bootleg said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

dignin said:

static111 said:

I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters

I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around.

i'm personally stunned. i couldn't for the life of me understand in 2016 how even one person could vote for that piece of trash. the fact that MORE voted for him after this 4 year dumpster fire?

canadians and americans are clearly very different groups. I always thought we were more similar than that. 

Trust me, we can’t understand it here either.  I’m usually pretty decent about being able to step into someone else’s shoes and see how they view things.  I am unable to understand how someone is able to support this child of a president.  And that’s where the divide is.  We’re not so far apart on a lot of issues, but we are extremely divided on Trump.

I was having this conversation this morning.  The tRumpsters that I know personally are not bad people.  They are not outwardly racist or even outwardly unintelligent.  To me they are just extremely ignorant.  They have no interest in political issues or determining why they believe what they believe.  It is definitely a team mentality and tRump is their quarterback.

Which is sad because they are being lied to so badly.  We have to somehow figure out how to fight the battle over misinformation because critical thinking is losing out right now.

It won’t lose one the 1776 commission goes into effect. No Siree. Then people will start critically thinking the right way again.

Lerxst1992

MayDay10 said:

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323991891453632512

https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1323993051073794053

What a joke. The four bumps to the right are MUCH larger and 538 predicted 338 electoral votes for Biden with an 89% chance of winning.

RCP and trafalgar did a better job than 538.

Lerxst1992

bootleg said:

Gern Blansten said:

bootleg said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

dignin said:

static111 said:

I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters

I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around.

i'm personally stunned. i couldn't for the life of me understand in 2016 how even one person could vote for that piece of trash. the fact that MORE voted for him after this 4 year dumpster fire?

canadians and americans are clearly very different groups. I always thought we were more similar than that. 

Trust me, we can’t understand it here either.  I’m usually pretty decent about being able to step into someone else’s shoes and see how they view things.  I am unable to understand how someone is able to support this child of a president.  And that’s where the divide is.  We’re not so far apart on a lot of issues, but we are extremely divided on Trump.

I was having this conversation this morning.  The tRumpsters that I know personally are not bad people.  They are not outwardly racist or even outwardly unintelligent.  To me they are just extremely ignorant.  They have no interest in political issues or determining why they believe what they believe.  It is definitely a team mentality and tRump is their quarterback.

Which is sad because they are being lied to so badly.  We have to somehow figure out how to fight the battle over misinformation because critical thinking is losing out right now.

We almost got the scare of a lifetime (we still may) and we still don’t get the trump phenomenon on here.

he is a beloved cult figure to them.  until Dems figure out how to reach people out past the suburbs the senate may be out of reach for a long time and the White House may be a challenge.

Lerxst1992

Exhibit 2,112 on what crap 538 reports,

“Republican Susan Collins of Maine is ahead of her challenger, Democrat Sara Gideon, 50 percent to 44 percent. But about 26 percent of Maine votes are untabulated. Also, Maine uses a ranked-choice voting system. Gideon is likely to be the second choice of most of the supporters of the more progressive independent candidate Lisa Savage. Savage is getting about 4 percent support, so this race favors Collins but could still swing to Gideon.“

30 mins later Gideon conceded with 25% of the vote uncounted.

bootleg

Looks like a lot of mail in ballots not delivered in a lot of swing states.  USPS defied order to sweep for ballots.  This might be part of the difference we are seeing in the polls.  Still prob off by about 2016 levels but who knows what kind of fuckery was involved then.

Gern Blansten

Lerxst1992 said:

bootleg said:

Gern Blansten said:

bootleg said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

dignin said:

static111 said:

I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters

I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around.

i'm personally stunned. i couldn't for the life of me understand in 2016 how even one person could vote for that piece of trash. the fact that MORE voted for him after this 4 year dumpster fire?

canadians and americans are clearly very different groups. I always thought we were more similar than that. 

Trust me, we can’t understand it here either.  I’m usually pretty decent about being able to step into someone else’s shoes and see how they view things.  I am unable to understand how someone is able to support this child of a president.  And that’s where the divide is.  We’re not so far apart on a lot of issues, but we are extremely divided on Trump.

I was having this conversation this morning.  The tRumpsters that I know personally are not bad people.  They are not outwardly racist or even outwardly unintelligent.  To me they are just extremely ignorant.  They have no interest in political issues or determining why they believe what they believe.  It is definitely a team mentality and tRump is their quarterback.

Which is sad because they are being lied to so badly.  We have to somehow figure out how to fight the battle over misinformation because critical thinking is losing out right now.

We almost got the scare of a lifetime (we still may) and we still don’t get the trump phenomenon on here.

he is a beloved cult figure to them.  until Dems figure out how to reach people out past the suburbs the senate may be out of reach for a long time and the White House may be a challenge.

Giving them money seems to work.  That used to be what the GOP said Dems did...gave their constituents money.  Now it's the GOP giving away money.