Nate Silver 538

Lerxst1992

JimmyV said:

Biden has to win this because four more years of Trump in the White House and Nate Silver's weird internet fanboys going to the mattresses to defend him is just unthinkable. 

Some stupid PJ fan took a lot of shots to the head warning that the polls and 538 were way off and that fake sense of a comfortable Biden win may have kept a few thousand voters at home in the rust belt which still gives trump a real chance. 

JimmyV

Lerxst1992 said:

JimmyV said:

Biden has to win this because four more years of Trump in the White House and Nate Silver's weird internet fanboys going to the mattresses to defend him is just unthinkable. 

Some stupid PJ fan took a lot of shots to the head warning that the polls and 538 were way off and that fake sense of a comfortable Biden win may have kept a few thousand voters at home in the rust belt which still gives trump a real chance. 

I know that guy. I think he deserves a couple of MSG shows as consolation.

Poncier

bootleg said:

RoleModelsinBlood31 said:

bootleg said:

lastexit78 said:

OnWis97 said:

lastexit78 said:

Relying on unreliable voters to win you an election is never a great strategy. Worked wonderfully in ‘08 with an electric candidate with energy and universal appeal. Not sure it can work with Biden, hope I’m wrong.

This has been the difference since at least Reagan.  He replaced Carter, who was an ineffective president elected because Ford pardoned Nixon. Mondale? Meh (though NOBODY was going to be Reagan). Dukakis? LOL.  Then came Bill Clinton; young, energetic, played the sax on Arsenio. Gore? Smart but stiff and boring. Kerry? Meh.  Then came Obama; electric, as you say. Hillary? Worse than "meh." Absolutely hated. Biden? Meh.

Republicans are the default winners for a few reasons. They don't lose presidential elections; "electric" Democrats go in and take them.  Of course, the way the courts, media and Senate are going to look for the next few years, even that may not be possible any more.

A once in a century pandemic and a country in an overall death spiral might be the exception to all these rules. I believe Trump would have won by a wide margin minus covid, The fact that he still might pull this off is honestly shocking and should be a huge wake up call to Democrats going forward. Win or lose Dems have to find a way to attract rural voters and get young voters to actually cast their ballots. Good luck with that, minus running a celebrity or some other ridiculous ploy.

Sadly I think that’s where we’re at.  Going to have to run a celeb like Oprah.  Seriously though how does he get this much support?  He fucking said maybe we can inject bleach to kill Covid.  I could could go on with all of the other things that would normally disqualify someone from being President but we all know the rest.  I don’t know if we can recover from this as a country.  We’re in the golden age of idiocy.

thats part of the issue- you fell for the media's spin once again.  so taken up by your political desires, you actually think when he said that that he meant to do it. Sarcasm used to be a thing we all understood, but in the age of media headlines, you immediately assumed he meant to inject bleach!  No offense- but the general public, it's something like 65%, don't actually read the article or watch the clip, they just read the headline, re-tweet it, and tell all their friends how dumb trump is.  Funny to watch him troll the media, because he's good at it, he knows how they'll print it and how slackjaws will eat it up.

I watched it live in real time.  It was not sarcastic it was a legit dumbass thinking out loud.  Also if it was sarcasm or a joke I don’t think a briefing on the pandemic is the appropriate time to try to get some yucks.

I watched it live too. It was definitely a moron asking a question so stupid a 6 year old would have known the answer and realized not to ask it.

Poncier

JimmyV said:

FLA, GA and NC being blue is wrong, and I'm not sold on PA yet either.

JimmyV

Poncier said:

JimmyV said:

FLA, GA and NC being blue is wrong, and I'm not sold on PA yet either.

Agreed. We'll see where it ends up but I wouldn't hurt myself patting Nate on the back just yet. 

Gern Blansten

Poncier said:

JimmyV said:

FLA, GA and NC being blue is wrong, and I'm not sold on PA yet either.

Not until GA and NC go red will it be wrong...come on man

Gern Blansten

JimmyV said:

Biden has to win this because four more years of Trump in the White House and Nate Silver's weird internet fanboys going to the mattresses to defend him is just unthinkable. 

I'm not really a Nate fanboy but I'm a numbers guy.  Nate doesn't make the polls...his model just interprets them.  If the polls are not accurate his model won't be accurate.

As I said above...as of right now he is only wrong on FL

mrussel1

Gern Blansten said:

JimmyV said:

Biden has to win this because four more years of Trump in the White House and Nate Silver's weird internet fanboys going to the mattresses to defend him is just unthinkable. 

I'm not really a Nate fanboy but I'm a numbers guy.  Nate doesn't make the polls...his model just interprets them.  If the polls are not accurate his model won't be accurate.

As I said above...as of right now he is only wrong on FL

Completely agree.  And the polls appear to have been within the margin of error.  GA and TX were dreams. 

tbergs

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

JimmyV said:

Biden has to win this because four more years of Trump in the White House and Nate Silver's weird internet fanboys going to the mattresses to defend him is just unthinkable. 

I'm not really a Nate fanboy but I'm a numbers guy.  Nate doesn't make the polls...his model just interprets them.  If the polls are not accurate his model won't be accurate.

As I said above...as of right now he is only wrong on FL

Completely agree.  And the polls appear to have been within the margin of error.  GA and TX were dreams. 

Everyone I work with this morning started ragging on the polls because they thought it would be a Biden landslide and it isn't. I was like, but so far the polls have been right as far as outcomes besides the pipe dream states. I mean, Florida blue would have been great, but as unrealistic as Texas. Although, where I think FL is damn near a lost cause moving forward, Texas could easily be blue if the right candidate runs. It's much more balanced than it was 20 years ago. Either way, yeah, disappointing because a certain group of this country were hopeful Trump was not who we are, but this has shown more people than desired are happy to hitch their trailer to a dumpster full of used condoms and moldy big macs.

MayDay10

The model is fairly sound.  The polls are not.  As far as the model goes, perhaps there needs to be some sort of additional correction made when it comes to Trump elections?

Gern Blansten

tbergs said:

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

JimmyV said:

Biden has to win this because four more years of Trump in the White House and Nate Silver's weird internet fanboys going to the mattresses to defend him is just unthinkable. 

I'm not really a Nate fanboy but I'm a numbers guy.  Nate doesn't make the polls...his model just interprets them.  If the polls are not accurate his model won't be accurate.

As I said above...as of right now he is only wrong on FL

Completely agree.  And the polls appear to have been within the margin of error.  GA and TX were dreams. 

Everyone I work with this morning started ragging on the polls because they thought it would be a Biden landslide and it isn't. I was like, but so far the polls have been right as far as outcomes besides the pipe dream states. I mean, Florida blue would have been great, but as unrealistic as Texas. Although, where I think FL is damn near a lost cause moving forward, Texas could easily be blue if the right candidate runs. It's much more balanced than it was 20 years ago. Either way, yeah, disappointing because a certain group of this country were hopeful Trump was not who we are, but this has shown more people than desired are happy to hitch their trailer to a dumpster full of used condoms and moldy big macs.

Well said...I was hoping for TX and FL to flip which would have sealed the deal early.

This election should not be close.  Especially after his tirade last night...tRump is a direct threat to this democracy.

Gern Blansten

MayDay10 said:

The model is fairly sound.  The polls are not.  As far as the model goes, perhaps there needs to be some sort of additional correction made when it comes to Trump elections?

It's an anomaly for sure.  Something tells me that, without tRump being on the ticket, a lot of these racist white morons just don't vote again.

And I am not suggesting that all tRump supporters are racist white morons....but the RWM vote is a lock for tRump

bootleg

It seems right now the polling errors margins of 2016 were still there if not a little worse.

Poncier

Yeah we learned nothing from 2016 and assumed the polls would be accurate in 2020. They were not.

Lerxst1992

MayDay10 said:

The model is fairly sound.  The polls are not.  As far as the model goes, perhaps there needs to be some sort of additional correction made when it comes to Trump elections?

But the forecasters job is to riffle thru the guts of the polls and figure out how people are likely to vote. So many errors, including  the senate, the house and the pop vote.

538 told us R leaning pollsters are garbage and it turned out 538 was garbage. I’ve been saying all along I hope Nate is right but this race looks much more like 50 50 than 90 10. I know more about politics than Nate, period. I warned him 2 elections in a row and he went on a fairly tale goose chase, twice.

Even is Biden wins, there is so much nonsense from538 and the biggest thing may be the Dems need a six point popular vote win to win the electoral college. This could be total statistical garbage from 538. Biden is winning the EC now with a 2 point pop vote lead.

HughFreakingDillon

RoleModelsinBlood31 said:

bootleg said:

lastexit78 said:

OnWis97 said:

lastexit78 said:

Relying on unreliable voters to win you an election is never a great strategy. Worked wonderfully in ‘08 with an electric candidate with energy and universal appeal. Not sure it can work with Biden, hope I’m wrong.

This has been the difference since at least Reagan.  He replaced Carter, who was an ineffective president elected because Ford pardoned Nixon. Mondale? Meh (though NOBODY was going to be Reagan). Dukakis? LOL.  Then came Bill Clinton; young, energetic, played the sax on Arsenio. Gore? Smart but stiff and boring. Kerry? Meh.  Then came Obama; electric, as you say. Hillary? Worse than "meh." Absolutely hated. Biden? Meh.

Republicans are the default winners for a few reasons. They don't lose presidential elections; "electric" Democrats go in and take them.  Of course, the way the courts, media and Senate are going to look for the next few years, even that may not be possible any more.

A once in a century pandemic and a country in an overall death spiral might be the exception to all these rules. I believe Trump would have won by a wide margin minus covid, The fact that he still might pull this off is honestly shocking and should be a huge wake up call to Democrats going forward. Win or lose Dems have to find a way to attract rural voters and get young voters to actually cast their ballots. Good luck with that, minus running a celebrity or some other ridiculous ploy.

Sadly I think that’s where we’re at.  Going to have to run a celeb like Oprah.  Seriously though how does he get this much support?  He fucking said maybe we can inject bleach to kill Covid.  I could could go on with all of the other things that would normally disqualify someone from being President but we all know the rest.  I don’t know if we can recover from this as a country.  We’re in the golden age of idiocy.

thats part of the issue- you fell for the media's spin once again.  so taken up by your political desires, you actually think when he said that that he meant to do it. Sarcasm used to be a thing we all understood, but in the age of media headlines, you immediately assumed he meant to inject bleach!  No offense- but the general public, it's something like 65%, don't actually read the article or watch the clip, they just read the headline, re-tweet it, and tell all their friends how dumb trump is.  Funny to watch him troll the media, because he's good at it, he knows how they'll print it and how slackjaws will eat it up.

we've all watched the clip. the entire clip. all the clips. several times. he's a fucking idiot. he doesn't understand sarcasm. claiming sarcasm after being called out is the excuse of the stupid. 

and you and his supporters are so desperate to believe him. 

tbergs

Lerxst1992 said:

MayDay10 said:

The model is fairly sound.  The polls are not.  As far as the model goes, perhaps there needs to be some sort of additional correction made when it comes to Trump elections?

But the forecasters job is to riffle thru the guts of the polls and figure out how people are likely to vote. So many errors, including  the senate, the house and the pop vote.

538 told us R leaning pollsters are garbage and it turned out 538 was garbage. I’ve been saying all along I hope Nate is right but this race looks much more like 50 50 than 90 10. I know more about politics than Nate, period. I warned him 2 elections in a row and he went on a fairly tale goose chase, twice.

Even is Biden wins, there is so much nonsense from538 and the biggest thing may be the Dems need a six point popular vote win to win the electoral college. This could be total statistical garbage from 538. Biden is winning the EC now with a 2 point pop vote lead.

The vote wasn't going to be 90/10. Those were the odds and they are holding true. Anyone who thought the vote wouldn't be close was applying some wishful thinking and giving this country the benefit of the doubt it didn't deserve.

static111

I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters

Poncier

static111 said:

I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters

Another way to own the libs.

dignin

static111 said:

I still think Trump voters lied to pollsters

I think it's more likely its getting harder to poll. Landlines vs. cell phones, that kind of stuff.

I'm here to eat some crow. I was getting pretty confident about the numbers, they have been polling for over a year with extremely similar results over that time. 

That or the polls were right and the Russians got in some systems and fucked around.