That oil industry comment will be repeated by trump endlessly in PA. And he is going to find that clip about fracking and beam it to every PA TV every day til now thru Nov 3, with Biden on the commercial asking for it.
Two enormous gaffs by Biden both razor targeted for Pennsylvanians.
52% of PA residents are against fracking though. Also if you were for fracking and it is that important to you to begin with you were already voting for Trump were you not? Who is this news to?
What's dumb about all of it is that none of it will be done in 4 or 8 years. This is a long-term goal with phasing. You ease out the current systems while easing in the new and transitioning the jobs. If you don't, the natural consequence will be that it happens anyway, but more abruptly like we've seen with other industries/technology. People are just to ignorant to see it coming.
Its an adult conversation that roughly 40% of the country is incapable of having.
That oil industry comment will be repeated by trump endlessly in PA. And he is going to find that clip about fracking and beam it to every PA TV every day til now thru Nov 3, with Biden on the commercial asking for it.
Two enormous gaffs by Biden both razor targeted for Pennsylvanians.
52% of PA residents are against fracking though. Also if you were for fracking and it is that important to you to begin with you were already voting for Trump were you not? Who is this news to?
What's dumb about all of it is that none of it will be done in 4 or 8 years. This is a long-term goal with phasing. You ease out the current systems while easing in the new and transitioning the jobs. If you don't, the natural consequence will be that it happens anyway, but more abruptly like we've seen with other industries/technology. People are just to ignorant to see it coming.
What’s going to replace natural gas for heating in cold climates? IIRC the closest on the horizon for green heat is geothermal, and we’ve been waiting many years for that.
Ironically, one of the reasons we have replaced many coal fired power plants in recent years is due to fracking. In NC:
” From 2005 to 2017, total carbon-dioxide emissions from electricity generation in North Carolina fell by 36%. There are other sources of CO2 emissions, of course, and other greenhouse gases. Nevertheless, if present trends continue, it could well be that the overall decline in greenhouse-gas emissions will be in the neighborhood of 40% by 2025.
Is the growth of solar and other renewable-energy sources a major explanation for the decline in emissions? Not really. Solar (2.1%) and hydroelectric dams (3.7%) produced 5.8% of our electricity in 2010. By 2017, solar (4%), hydro (3%), and other alternatives (3.2%) made up 10.2%. That’s a noticeable increase. It explains a part of the emissions decline.
But the vast majority is attributable to the fact that natural gas went from 7% of North Carolina’s electricity generation in 2010 to 30% in 2017. Nuclear stayed about the same (33% in 2017). And coal dropped dramatically from 56% in 2010 to 27% in 2017.
Gas and coal are both fossil fuels. But gas burns a lot cleaner than coal. We’ve been able to make the switch from coal to gas without burdening power customers because the fracking revolution made it economical to drill for and recover large amounts of natural gas from within the United States. It has made America a net energy exporter rather than a net importer. And it is the primary reason for the emissions reduction that Gov. Cooper and his allies may soon take credit for.”
” At FiveThirtyEight, we strive to accumulate and analyze polling data in a way that is honest, informed, comprehensive and accurate. While we do occasionallycommissionpolls, most of our understanding of American public opinion comes from aggregating polling data conducted by other firms and organizations. This data forms the foundation of our polling averages, election forecasts and much of our political coverage.”
My original comment was 538 takes an aggregate of polls and makes a series of adjustments, of which I listed four. Curiously, that original “aggregate / forecast” comment was soon after mine, but I had accurately described 538s process. So go figure. I can’t.
“We're going to show you some recent polls from a few key battleground states that will decide this election -- and we have to warn you, you're not going to like what they say:
Florida
Joe Biden - 46% Donald Trump - 48%
Trafalgar Group, 10/14
Georgia
Joe Biden - 47% Donald Trump - 48%
Emerson College, 10/19
Ohio
Joe Biden - 46% Donald Trump - 49%
Morning Consult, 10/13
That's right: these polls have Trump beating us in some of the most important swing states.
In fact, Trump is polling better now in some of these states than he was at this time 4 years ago, when he still managed to win the Electoral College. So with just 10 days left to erase Trump's polling advantages and win this thing, we have to make every one of them count.
Thanks so much -- let's keep it up over these next 10 days.
Campaigns put these out to show urgency. Of course it's close and they're not going to show the polls indicating their lead. I received this spam in Facebook,, too..
Trafalgar is garbage btw that basically adds red 3-4 pts from the jump.
Are you trying to convince people the election will be close? Because i don't think that's an argument anyone is challenging. I'm not really sure what other point you're trying to get across at this point.
Yeah, daily life in the US is a toss up. I'm hoping this year that the polls are "wrong" the opposite way and Trump gets obliterated even though it currently looks close.
My pipe dream is that Trump is crushed in the general, the Senate flips and in the ultimate vindication, McConnell loses re-election. Then, Trump can fulfill one of his 2020 platform items and send himself and Mitch to the moon to establish a permanent residence. Fuck those 2 piles of garbage.
Yeah, daily life in the US is a toss up. I'm hoping this year that the polls are "wrong" the opposite way and Trump gets obliterated even though it currently looks close.
My pipe dream is that Trump is crushed in the general, the Senate flips and in the ultimate vindication, McConnell loses re-election. Then, Trump can fulfill one of his 2020 platform items and send himself and Mitch to the moon to establish a permanent residence. Fuck those 2 piles of garbage.
Political porn!
"A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
Are you trying to convince people the election will be close? Because i don't think that's an argument anyone is challenging. I'm not really sure what other point you're trying to get across at this point.
It’s about the harm handicappers could be doing to our elections.
This is a topic about 538 and I recall the debate started with a few trump supporters meandering on here stating how these forecasts are absurd given what actually happened in 2016. Then the talk turned to WI, and how it was “solid.” So I joined in, because I think the long departed trump supporters were making an accurate point. I put up side by side images of 538s site 2016 vs now for WI, which looked nearly identical (factoring in 2 former GOP govs running a legit 3rd party campaign). I wouldn’t call that solid at that time.
As a Biden supporter, I’ve been very critical of 538s forecasts and believe I even got Nates attention on social media a week ago about his 87% Biden in PA. That just seems outright absurd given the polling then. And even the polling itself shouldn’t be fully trusted. But, looking at the huge increase in covid cases the last 2 days, it would be catastrophic for the forecasts to be wrong. If they create a few thousand “lazy blue non voters” in key states, does Silver and the others take any accountability if their processes are wrong again? I am hoping for a Biden landslide, but seeing many key states within MoE given how absurdly bad trump is doing...
Are you trying to convince people the election will be close? Because i don't think that's an argument anyone is challenging. I'm not really sure what other point you're trying to get across at this point.
It’s about the harm handicappers could be doing to our elections.
This is a topic about 538 and I recall the debate started with a few trump supporters meandering on here stating how these forecasts are absurd given what actually happened in 2016. Then the talk turned to WI, and how it was “solid.” So I joined in, because I think the long departed trump supporters were making an accurate point. I put up side by side images of 538s site 2016 vs now for WI, which looked nearly identical (factoring in 2 former GOP govs running a legit 3rd party campaign). I wouldn’t call that solid at that time.
As a Biden supporter, I’ve been very critical of 538s forecasts and believe I even got Nates attention on social media a week ago about his 87% Biden in PA. That just seems outright absurd given the polling then. And even the polling itself shouldn’t be fully trusted. But, looking at the huge increase in covid cases the last 2 days, it would be catastrophic for the forecasts to be wrong. If they create a few thousand “lazy blue non voters” in key states, does Silver and the others take any accountability if their processes are wrong again? I am hoping for a Biden landslide, but seeing many key states within MoE given how absurdly bad trump is doing...
I think we all have PTSD from 2016. I’m not sure if I’ve ever had a panic attack before, but I think I did have one the day after the election. I’m hopeful that dems will not make the same mistake and just assume it’s in the bag no matter what the polls suggest. I think we’re seeing some evidence of that in the early voting turn out. I wish everyone would get out and vote early. Don’t wait until Election Day as you may have to wait even longer in lines. I’m secretly hoping that all the voter suppression attempts by the GOP blows up in their face and causes republicans to have to wait in long lines and that maybe they decide it’s not worth waiting in line to vote for their POS cult leader. It should be a 95%-5% type of blowout. The fact that it’s even close is disturbing enough.
Are you trying to convince people the election will be close? Because i don't think that's an argument anyone is challenging. I'm not really sure what other point you're trying to get across at this point.
It’s about the harm handicappers could be doing to our elections.
This is a topic about 538 and I recall the debate started with a few trump supporters meandering on here stating how these forecasts are absurd given what actually happened in 2016. Then the talk turned to WI, and how it was “solid.” So I joined in, because I think the long departed trump supporters were making an accurate point. I put up side by side images of 538s site 2016 vs now for WI, which looked nearly identical (factoring in 2 former GOP govs running a legit 3rd party campaign). I wouldn’t call that solid at that time.
As a Biden supporter, I’ve been very critical of 538s forecasts and believe I even got Nates attention on social media a week ago about his 87% Biden in PA. That just seems outright absurd given the polling then. And even the polling itself shouldn’t be fully trusted. But, looking at the huge increase in covid cases the last 2 days, it would be catastrophic for the forecasts to be wrong. If they create a few thousand “lazy blue non voters” in key states, does Silver and the others take any accountability if their processes are wrong again? I am hoping for a Biden landslide, but seeing many key states within MoE given how absurdly bad trump is doing...
I think it's absurd to blame 538 for anything related to the election. The people who read his blog aren't infrequent voters first off. Second, showing up to vote or not is the "fault"of the voter, not a handicapper or statistician.
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,326
Are you trying to convince people the election will be close? Because i don't think that's an argument anyone is challenging. I'm not really sure what other point you're trying to get across at this point.
It’s about the harm handicappers could be doing to our elections.
This is a topic about 538 and I recall the debate started with a few trump supporters meandering on here stating how these forecasts are absurd given what actually happened in 2016. Then the talk turned to WI, and how it was “solid.” So I joined in, because I think the long departed trump supporters were making an accurate point. I put up side by side images of 538s site 2016 vs now for WI, which looked nearly identical (factoring in 2 former GOP govs running a legit 3rd party campaign). I wouldn’t call that solid at that time.
As a Biden supporter, I’ve been very critical of 538s forecasts and believe I even got Nates attention on social media a week ago about his 87% Biden in PA. That just seems outright absurd given the polling then. And even the polling itself shouldn’t be fully trusted. But, looking at the huge increase in covid cases the last 2 days, it would be catastrophic for the forecasts to be wrong. If they create a few thousand “lazy blue non voters” in key states, does Silver and the others take any accountability if their processes are wrong again? I am hoping for a Biden landslide, but seeing many key states within MoE given how absurdly bad trump is doing...
I think it's absurd to blame 538 for anything related to the election. The people who read his blog aren't infrequent voters first off. Second, showing up to vote or not is the "fault"of the voter, not a handicapper or statistician.
I said 538 did a poor job. They deserve the blame for the job that they did. And it does not matter how often their readers vote. It is literally their job is to figure out who is showing up to vote, and which polls captured that the best. And it’s concerning they are taking the current election where many of the swing states are MoE and forecasting it at 87%. It’s just an opinion. You are welcome to have a different one.
Are you trying to convince people the election will be close? Because i don't think that's an argument anyone is challenging. I'm not really sure what other point you're trying to get across at this point.
It’s about the harm handicappers could be doing to our elections.
This is a topic about 538 and I recall the debate started with a few trump supporters meandering on here stating how these forecasts are absurd given what actually happened in 2016. Then the talk turned to WI, and how it was “solid.” So I joined in, because I think the long departed trump supporters were making an accurate point. I put up side by side images of 538s site 2016 vs now for WI, which looked nearly identical (factoring in 2 former GOP govs running a legit 3rd party campaign). I wouldn’t call that solid at that time.
As a Biden supporter, I’ve been very critical of 538s forecasts and believe I even got Nates attention on social media a week ago about his 87% Biden in PA. That just seems outright absurd given the polling then. And even the polling itself shouldn’t be fully trusted. But, looking at the huge increase in covid cases the last 2 days, it would be catastrophic for the forecasts to be wrong. If they create a few thousand “lazy blue non voters” in key states, does Silver and the others take any accountability if their processes are wrong again? I am hoping for a Biden landslide, but seeing many key states within MoE given how absurdly bad trump is doing...
I think it's absurd to blame 538 for anything related to the election. The people who read his blog aren't infrequent voters first off. Second, showing up to vote or not is the "fault"of the voter, not a handicapper or statistician.
I said 538 did a poor job. They deserve the blame for the job that they did. And it does not matter how often their readers vote. It is literally their job is to figure out who is showing up to vote, and which polls captured that the best. And it’s concerning they are taking the current election where many of the swing states are MoE and forecasting it at 87%. It’s just an opinion. You are welcome to have a different one.
It isn't literally their job to figure out who is showing up to the polls and voting. Their objective (not their job) is to weight the polls by using their demographic analysis, which is not the same a figuring out who is going to to vote. They're statisticians not sorcerers. By definition they will be wrong a percentage of the time, when they make predictions.
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,326
Tejas will be stolen if the counted voted is within re-count %s. There’s no way a Tejas repub governor is going to allow Tejas to go blue. We need shrub to come out publicly and vehemently for Sleepy Woke Joe Basement Biden but is on the record as being “retired” from politics. If there ever was a chance for him to atone for the sins of Iraq, this could be that time.
Are you trying to convince people the election will be close? Because i don't think that's an argument anyone is challenging. I'm not really sure what other point you're trying to get across at this point.
It’s about the harm handicappers could be doing to our elections.
This is a topic about 538 and I recall the debate started with a few trump supporters meandering on here stating how these forecasts are absurd given what actually happened in 2016. Then the talk turned to WI, and how it was “solid.” So I joined in, because I think the long departed trump supporters were making an accurate point. I put up side by side images of 538s site 2016 vs now for WI, which looked nearly identical (factoring in 2 former GOP govs running a legit 3rd party campaign). I wouldn’t call that solid at that time.
As a Biden supporter, I’ve been very critical of 538s forecasts and believe I even got Nates attention on social media a week ago about his 87% Biden in PA. That just seems outright absurd given the polling then. And even the polling itself shouldn’t be fully trusted. But, looking at the huge increase in covid cases the last 2 days, it would be catastrophic for the forecasts to be wrong. If they create a few thousand “lazy blue non voters” in key states, does Silver and the others take any accountability if their processes are wrong again? I am hoping for a Biden landslide, but seeing many key states within MoE given how absurdly bad trump is doing...
I think it's absurd to blame 538 for anything related to the election. The people who read his blog aren't infrequent voters first off. Second, showing up to vote or not is the "fault"of the voter, not a handicapper or statistician.
I said 538 did a poor job. They deserve the blame for the job that they did. And it does not matter how often their readers vote. It is literally their job is to figure out who is showing up to vote, and which polls captured that the best. And it’s concerning they are taking the current election where many of the swing states are MoE and forecasting it at 87%. It’s just an opinion. You are welcome to have a different one.
It isn't literally their job to figure out who is showing up to the polls and voting. Their objective (not their job) is to weight the polls by using their demographic analysis, which is not the same a figuring out who is going to to vote. They're statisticians not sorcerers. By definition they will be wrong a percentage of the time, when they make predictions.
Are you trying to convince people the election will be close? Because i don't think that's an argument anyone is challenging. I'm not really sure what other point you're trying to get across at this point.
It’s about the harm handicappers could be doing to our elections.
This is a topic about 538 and I recall the debate started with a few trump supporters meandering on here stating how these forecasts are absurd given what actually happened in 2016. Then the talk turned to WI, and how it was “solid.” So I joined in, because I think the long departed trump supporters were making an accurate point. I put up side by side images of 538s site 2016 vs now for WI, which looked nearly identical (factoring in 2 former GOP govs running a legit 3rd party campaign). I wouldn’t call that solid at that time.
As a Biden supporter, I’ve been very critical of 538s forecasts and believe I even got Nates attention on social media a week ago about his 87% Biden in PA. That just seems outright absurd given the polling then. And even the polling itself shouldn’t be fully trusted. But, looking at the huge increase in covid cases the last 2 days, it would be catastrophic for the forecasts to be wrong. If they create a few thousand “lazy blue non voters” in key states, does Silver and the others take any accountability if their processes are wrong again? I am hoping for a Biden landslide, but seeing many key states within MoE given how absurdly bad trump is doing...
I think it's absurd to blame 538 for anything related to the election. The people who read his blog aren't infrequent voters first off. Second, showing up to vote or not is the "fault"of the voter, not a handicapper or statistician.
I said 538 did a poor job. They deserve the blame for the job that they did. And it does not matter how often their readers vote. It is literally their job is to figure out who is showing up to vote, and which polls captured that the best. And it’s concerning they are taking the current election where many of the swing states are MoE and forecasting it at 87%. It’s just an opinion. You are welcome to have a different one.
It isn't literally their job to figure out who is showing up to the polls and voting. Their objective (not their job) is to weight the polls by using their demographic analysis, which is not the same a figuring out who is going to to vote. They're statisticians not sorcerers. By definition they will be wrong a percentage of the time, when they make predictions.
Well said.
Did either of you bother to review their process?
Of course 538 tries to figure out turnout. One party wins when turnout is high, he other wins when it isn’t. Their forecast would have zero chance of being close to accurate without being able to predict the approximate makeup and size of the electorate
Of course they will be wrong a percentage of the time. It’s the 12% next to trumps name that is absurd.
538 has about ten references to turnout in their process, here are a few:
“The national snapshot accounts for projected voter turnout in each state based on population growth since 2016, changes in how easy it is to vote since 2016, and how close the race is in that state currently — closer-polling states tend to have higher turnout. National polls are not used in the national snapshot; it’s simply a summation of the snapshots in the 50 states and Washington, D.C.“
There could also be some challenges related to polling during COVID-19. In primary elections conducted during the pandemic, for instance, turnout was hard to predict. In some ways, the pandemic makes voting easier (expanded options to vote by mail in many states), but it also makes it harder in other ways (it’s difficult to socially distance if you must vote in person).
Comments
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
www.headstonesband.com
Ironically, one of the reasons we have replaced many coal fired power plants in recent years is due to fracking. In NC:
” From 2005 to 2017, total carbon-dioxide emissions from electricity generation in North Carolina fell by 36%. There are other sources of CO2 emissions, of course, and other greenhouse gases. Nevertheless, if present trends continue, it could well be that the overall decline in greenhouse-gas emissions will be in the neighborhood of 40% by 2025.
Is the growth of solar and other renewable-energy sources a major explanation for the decline in emissions? Not really. Solar (2.1%) and hydroelectric dams (3.7%) produced 5.8% of our electricity in 2010. By 2017, solar (4%), hydro (3%), and other alternatives (3.2%) made up 10.2%. That’s a noticeable increase. It explains a part of the emissions decline.
But the vast majority is attributable to the fact that natural gas went from 7% of North Carolina’s electricity generation in 2010 to 30% in 2017. Nuclear stayed about the same (33% in 2017). And coal dropped dramatically from 56% in 2010 to 27% in 2017.
Gas and coal are both fossil fuels. But gas burns a lot cleaner than coal. We’ve been able to make the switch from coal to gas without burdening power customers because the fracking revolution made it economical to drill for and recover large amounts of natural gas from within the United States. It has made America a net energy exporter rather than a net importer. And it is the primary reason for the emissions reduction that Gov. Cooper and his allies may soon take credit for.”
Time for methane bomb pics?
” At FiveThirtyEight, we strive to accumulate and analyze polling data in a way that is honest, informed, comprehensive and accurate. While we do occasionally commission polls, most of our understanding of American public opinion comes from aggregating polling data conducted by other firms and organizations. This data forms the foundation of our polling averages, election forecasts and much of our political coverage.”
‘Warning flare’: New swing-state data shows massive Democratic early-vote lead
In a worrisome sign for Republicans, Democrats are also turning out more low-frequency and newly registered voters than the GOP
https://www-politico-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-numbers-swing-states-431363?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA=#aoh=16035547935218&referrer=https://www.google.com&amp_tf=From %1$s&ampshare=https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-numbers-swing-states-431363
Also this
https://www-msnbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.msnbc.com/msnbc/amp-video/mmvo94537797543?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA=#aoh=16035549323784&referrer=https://www.google.com&amp_tf=From %1$s&ampshare=https://www.msnbc.com/the-reidout/watch/first-time-voters-young-voters-making-their-voices-heard-in-2020-94537797543
New Data Show Early Youth Vote Spiking in Battleground States
https://www.thedailybeast.com/new-tufts-data-show-early-youth-vote-spiking-in-battleground-states
“We're going to show you some recent polls from a few key battleground states that will decide this election -- and we have to warn you, you're not going to like what they say:
Joe Biden - 46%
Donald Trump - 48%
Trafalgar Group,
10/14
Joe Biden - 47%
Donald Trump - 48%
Emerson College,
10/19
Joe Biden - 46%
Donald Trump - 49%
Morning Consult,
10/13
That's right: these polls have Trump beating us in some of the most important swing states.
In fact, Trump is polling better now in some of these states than he was at this time 4 years ago, when he still managed to win the Electoral College. So with just 10 days left to erase Trump's polling advantages and win this thing, we have to make every one of them count.
Thanks so much -- let's keep it up over these next 10 days.
Biden-Harris HQ
Trafalgar is garbage btw that basically adds red 3-4 pts from the jump.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxlYSV2dMY8
My pipe dream is that Trump is crushed in the general, the Senate flips and in the ultimate vindication, McConnell loses re-election. Then, Trump can fulfill one of his 2020 platform items and send himself and Mitch to the moon to establish a permanent residence. Fuck those 2 piles of garbage.
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
Of course 538 tries to figure out turnout. One party wins when turnout is high, he other wins when it isn’t. Their forecast would have zero chance of being close to accurate without being able to predict the approximate makeup and size of the electorate
Of course they will be wrong a percentage of the time. It’s the 12% next to trumps name that is absurd.
538 has about ten references to turnout in their process, here are a few:
“The national snapshot accounts for projected voter turnout in each state based on population growth since 2016, changes in how easy it is to vote since 2016, and how close the race is in that state currently — closer-polling states tend to have higher turnout. National polls are not used in the national snapshot; it’s simply a summation of the snapshots in the 50 states and Washington, D.C.“