Nate Silver 538

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  • WhatYouTaughtMe
    WhatYouTaughtMe Posts: 4,957
    Thanks for the input. I clearly don't know shit about this stuff. I hope I'm wrong. I really do. Thanks for providing me with a little hope. 
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,527
    It's flat out turnout. If turnout is relatively low = R win, anything else and it's Biden's.
  • Gern Blansten
    Gern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,177
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    It's flat out turnout. If turnout is relatively low = R win, anything else and it's Biden's.
    yep...and turnout looks massive
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,124
    Gern Blansten said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    It's flat out turnout. If turnout is relatively low = R win, anything else and it's Biden's.
    yep...and turnout looks massive
    7 million ballots cast thus far.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,124
    Speaking of which, did you see where Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat’s SCOTUS nominee worked protecting repub mail in ballots? Like making sure they were counted? Couldn’t be a more obvious appointment. 
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

    Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.

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  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,527
    So I've been really getting into PredictIt's site. Lots of easy money to make if people have the cash to put down. I maxed out on Dems winning the House, Biden winning the popular vote, Trump winning Alaska/Kansas/Missouri, Biden winning Michigan/Minnesota/Nevada. The House and popular vote at the least are worth putting the $850 max on each.
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    So I've been really getting into PredictIt's site. Lots of easy money to make if people have the cash to put down. I maxed out on Dems winning the House, Biden winning the popular vote, Trump winning Alaska/Kansas/Missouri, Biden winning Michigan/Minnesota/Nevada. The House and popular vote at the least are worth putting the $850 max on each.
    Ha,  prop bets!  Who knew?
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,527
    mrussel1 said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    So I've been really getting into PredictIt's site. Lots of easy money to make if people have the cash to put down. I maxed out on Dems winning the House, Biden winning the popular vote, Trump winning Alaska/Kansas/Missouri, Biden winning Michigan/Minnesota/Nevada. The House and popular vote at the least are worth putting the $850 max on each.
    Ha,  prop bets!  Who knew?
    It's fun! And free money.
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,594
    Gern Blansten said:
    Interesting that PA and WI have switched on 538s winding path chart.  PA has been his tipping point state for weeks and now it is WI
    Seemed like it was only a matter of time.

    Wow, it's been a few days since checking the polls. I really really really don't want to let myself become overconfident but....
    www.myspace.com
  • Gern Blansten
    Gern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,177
    The Juggler said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    Interesting that PA and WI have switched on 538s winding path chart.  PA has been his tipping point state for weeks and now it is WI
    Seemed like it was only a matter of time.

    Wow, it's been a few days since checking the polls. I really really really don't want to let myself become overconfident but....
    Yeah I get it...

    Interesting that Durham isn't going to release anything prior to the election.  That backfired for them completely even though we knew it was bullshit anyway.  
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • HughFreakingDillon
    HughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 39,473
    i just hope people who haven't voted don't think "ah, he's going to win, i don't need to vote"
    By The Time They Figure Out What Went Wrong, We'll Be Sitting On A Beach, Earning Twenty Percent.




  • OnWis97
    OnWis97 St. Paul, MN Posts: 5,610
    edited October 2020
    I wonder whether 2016 (and, therefore, maybe even worse this time) is less about the inaccuracy of the polls and more about the sheer devotion to Trump.  For example, if a state says 51% Biden and 46% Trump, is it the case that 99.9% of the latter vote for Trump, while maybe 85% of the former bother to vote for Biden? (Made up numbers, but I think you get my point)
    1995 Milwaukee     1998 Alpine, Alpine     2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston     2004 Boston, Boston     2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty)     2011 Alpine, Alpine     
    2013 Wrigley     2014 St. Paul     2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley     2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley     2021 Asbury Park     2022 St Louis     2023 Austin, Austin
    2024 Napa, Wrigley, Wrigley
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    OnWis97 said:
    I wonder whether 2016 (and, therefore, maybe even worse this time) is less about the inaccuracy of the polls and more about the sheer devotion to Trump.  For example, if a state says 51% Biden and 46% Trump, is it the case that 99.9% of the latter vote for Trump, while maybe 85% of the former bother to vote for Biden? (Made up numbers, but I think you get my point)
    That's why likely voters tends to be the more accurate measure.  I don't see a scenario where a LV says they are voting Biden and then 15% decide to flip. 
  • HughFreakingDillon
    HughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 39,473
    yeah, i'd imagine that if you told a pollster that you are voting, it's unlikely you don't. 
    By The Time They Figure Out What Went Wrong, We'll Be Sitting On A Beach, Earning Twenty Percent.




  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    yeah, i'd imagine that if you told a pollster that you are voting, it's unlikely you don't. 
    They also asked if you voted in the mid terms, 2016, etc. to weed those people out. 
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,594
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    i just hope people who haven't voted don't think "ah, he's going to win, i don't need to vote"
    After what happened in '16, I'd say that will be less of an issue now
    www.myspace.com
  • HughFreakingDillon
    HughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 39,473
    The Juggler said:
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    i just hope people who haven't voted don't think "ah, he's going to win, i don't need to vote"
    After what happened in '16, I'd say that will be less of an issue now
    in '16 there was no pandemic or threats of voter intimidation/violence. 
    By The Time They Figure Out What Went Wrong, We'll Be Sitting On A Beach, Earning Twenty Percent.




  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,594
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    The Juggler said:
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    i just hope people who haven't voted don't think "ah, he's going to win, i don't need to vote"
    After what happened in '16, I'd say that will be less of an issue now
    in '16 there was no pandemic or threats of voter intimidation/violence. 
    Well that would be a different reason for staying home than complacency though. 
    www.myspace.com
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,527
    edited October 2020
    Definitely people are capable of getting complacent right now. Can't take the foot off the gas, continue to step on the throat. Act like you're trailing by 2 points.
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,594
    Florida, Florida, Florida----as far as Joe getting the win on election night:

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/12/biden-trump-2020-election-night-428856
    www.myspace.com

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