Nate Silver 538

Lerxst1992

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Flip PA and ME2 and we have a tie.

Sure but I don't see that happening. These are my predictions. Biden is killing it in Maine. And I think there's more of a chance of him losing WI than PA. I live in PA and I'm almost at the point of calling it here. The amount of work I know locally we're doing is going to pay off. Trump had everything bounce in his favor in 2016 and he still barely won by ~44k votes. PA can make that up in Philly alone.

I hope you are right but the big T of PA has me concerned. Of huge importance in ME is defeating Collins. The Dems desperately need the senate and add DC as a state, and PR if they want it.

mrussel1

Lerxst1992 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Flip PA and ME2 and we have a tie.

Sure but I don't see that happening. These are my predictions. Biden is killing it in Maine. And I think there's more of a chance of him losing WI than PA. I live in PA and I'm almost at the point of calling it here. The amount of work I know locally we're doing is going to pay off. Trump had everything bounce in his favor in 2016 and he still barely won by ~44k votes. PA can make that up in Philly alone.

I hope you are right but the big T of PA has me concerned. Of huge importance in ME is defeating Collins. The Dems desperately need the senate and add DC as a state, and PR if they want it.

I don't see Cunningham winning now.  Terrible, terrible, terrible.  I hope I'm wrong. 

Gern Blansten

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Flip PA and ME2 and we have a tie.

Sure but I don't see that happening. These are my predictions. Biden is killing it in Maine. And I think there's more of a chance of him losing WI than PA. I live in PA and I'm almost at the point of calling it here. The amount of work I know locally we're doing is going to pay off. Trump had everything bounce in his favor in 2016 and he still barely won by ~44k votes. PA can make that up in Philly alone.

I hope you are right but the big T of PA has me concerned. Of huge importance in ME is defeating Collins. The Dems desperately need the senate and add DC as a state, and PR if they want it.

I don't see Cunningham winning now.  Terrible, terrible, terrible.  I hope I'm wrong. 

I feel like people don't care anymore (about affairs, etc.)....tRump has lowered the bar to the point that there isn't a bar

mrussel1

Gern Blansten said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Flip PA and ME2 and we have a tie.

Sure but I don't see that happening. These are my predictions. Biden is killing it in Maine. And I think there's more of a chance of him losing WI than PA. I live in PA and I'm almost at the point of calling it here. The amount of work I know locally we're doing is going to pay off. Trump had everything bounce in his favor in 2016 and he still barely won by ~44k votes. PA can make that up in Philly alone.

I hope you are right but the big T of PA has me concerned. Of huge importance in ME is defeating Collins. The Dems desperately need the senate and add DC as a state, and PR if they want it.

I don't see Cunningham winning now.  Terrible, terrible, terrible.  I hope I'm wrong. 

I feel like people don't care anymore (about affairs, etc.)....tRump has lowered the bar to the point that there isn't a bar

Maybe.. but sometimes people look for a reason to not vote for the other party, the one they are not inclined to supporting.  That's the risk.  Hope you're right.  This one looked 70/30% locked in.  Not so much now.

OnWis97

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Flip PA and ME2 and we have a tie.

Sure but I don't see that happening. These are my predictions. Biden is killing it in Maine. And I think there's more of a chance of him losing WI than PA. I live in PA and I'm almost at the point of calling it here. The amount of work I know locally we're doing is going to pay off. Trump had everything bounce in his favor in 2016 and he still barely won by ~44k votes. PA can make that up in Philly alone.

I hope you are right but the big T of PA has me concerned. Of huge importance in ME is defeating Collins. The Dems desperately need the senate and add DC as a state, and PR if they want it.

I don't see Cunningham winning now.  Terrible, terrible, terrible.  I hope I'm wrong. 

I feel like people don't care anymore (about affairs, etc.)....tRump has lowered the bar to the point that there isn't a bar

Maybe.. but sometimes people look for a reason to not vote for the other party, the one they are not inclined to supporting.  That's the risk.  Hope you're right.  This one looked 70/30% locked in.  Not so much now.

I don't think it hurts today as much as it would have a few decades ago. Or even as much as it would have six years ago. But it certainly does not help....Ugh.

Jearlpam0925

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Flip PA and ME2 and we have a tie.

Sure but I don't see that happening. These are my predictions. Biden is killing it in Maine. And I think there's more of a chance of him losing WI than PA. I live in PA and I'm almost at the point of calling it here. The amount of work I know locally we're doing is going to pay off. Trump had everything bounce in his favor in 2016 and he still barely won by ~44k votes. PA can make that up in Philly alone.

I hope you are right but the big T of PA has me concerned. Of huge importance in ME is defeating Collins. The Dems desperately need the senate and add DC as a state, and PR if they want it.

I don't see Cunningham winning now.  Terrible, terrible, terrible.  I hope I'm wrong. 

I feel like people don't care anymore (about affairs, etc.)....tRump has lowered the bar to the point that there isn't a bar

Maybe.. but sometimes people look for a reason to not vote for the other party, the one they are not inclined to supporting.  That's the risk.  Hope you're right.  This one looked 70/30% locked in.  Not so much now.

This. The mental gymnastics people put themselves through to stay party over country is amazing sometimes. Voters are moved by fear and doubt more than rational thought, policy, and optimism sadly.

mickeyrat

didnt they elect mark sanford to congress after he resigned as govrnor over this very thing? hell even using tax dollars?

mrussel1

mickeyrat said:

didnt they elect mark sanford to congress after he resigned as govrnor over this very thing? hell even using tax dollars?

Yes but he went in the wilderness for a few years.  If NC were a Democratic state I'd be less concerned. 

Jearlpam0925

Wasn't that South Carolina? 

I don't know how I missed this, and I would include Moody's model in my decisions if their membership didn't cost so goddamn much to access.

https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/faq/2020/election-model-webinar-qa.pdf

Found the webinar: https://www.moodysanalytics.com/webinars-on-demand/2020/who-will-be-the-next-president

Those are strong projections for margins against Trump in PA and WI. Now this is from June, July, and the ironic part is how they ask how Biden could hurt his chances with an "October Surprise". Haha.

Lerxst1992

What if 3% of trump supporters are lying to pollsters in 3 states, AZ, FL and WI?

The Juggler

Lerxst1992 said:

What if 3% of trump supporters are lying to pollsters in 3 states, AZ, FL and WI?

Stop it!

Lerxst1992

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Flip PA and ME2 and we have a tie.

Sure but I don't see that happening. These are my predictions. Biden is killing it in Maine. And I think there's more of a chance of him losing WI than PA. I live in PA and I'm almost at the point of calling it here. The amount of work I know locally we're doing is going to pay off. Trump had everything bounce in his favor in 2016 and he still barely won by ~44k votes. PA can make that up in Philly alone.

ME2 is the second congressional district in Maine. It is very rural and not diverse. At best it’s a tossup electoral vote for Biden. 

mrussel1

Lerxst1992 said:

What if 3% of trump supporters are lying to pollsters in 3 states, AZ, FL and WI?

Consistently.. every time... online and on the phone.  And in the candidates internal polling too.

Go Beavers

Lerxst1992 said:

What if 3% of trump supporters are lying to pollsters in 3 states, AZ, FL and WI?

Then the polls would probably vary much more than they are and it would take a broader unified group effort. You could get 500 goobers on an AZ republican facebook group to agree to it, put maybe only one would get polled. . The pools are all very static over time. Same with approval ratings. 

mickeyrat

what if..... indeed.

this must explain why trump is focused on Az. one rally already. 2 on hold and pence is there today. just exudes confidence.........

Lerxst1992

mrussel1 said:

mickeyrat said:

didnt they elect mark sanford to congress after he resigned as govrnor over this very thing? hell even using tax dollars?

Yes but he went in the wilderness for a few years.  If NC were a Democratic state I'd be less concerned. 

This could be the senate, and the Dems may not get many chances to win the senate in the near future. They need to flip 4 seats assuming AL is likely going back R. Assuming CO, ME and AZ flip (which is not a given), NC was their best bet for the coveted 4th seat to flip, as Cunningham was polling strongly for most of the summer.

Without NC, the best bet for that 4th flip is likely IA, gulp. If NC isn’t flipping then its likely SC and GA are staying red.

the Dems really really really need NC. Without the senate, there is no DC statehood, which might be the most important political issue after covid.

mrussel1

Lerxst1992 said:

mrussel1 said:

mickeyrat said:

didnt they elect mark sanford to congress after he resigned as govrnor over this very thing? hell even using tax dollars?

Yes but he went in the wilderness for a few years.  If NC were a Democratic state I'd be less concerned. 

This could be the senate, and the Dems may not get many chances to win the senate in the near future. They need to flip 4 seats assuming AL is likely going back R. Assuming CO, ME and AZ flip (which is not a given), NC was their best bet for the coveted 4th seat to flip, as Cunningham was polling strongly for most of the summer.

Without NC, the best bet for that 4th flip is likely IA, gulp. If NC isn’t flipping then its likely SC and GA are staying red.

the Dems really really really need NC. Without the senate, there is no DC statehood, which might be the most important political issue after covid.

The '22 election favors democrats too though. 

Jearlpam0925

Yep. That's why they're not coming straight out about court packing and the such. Might have to wait two years to lay the hammer.

static111

How is not allowing Obama a nominee and then railroading in the haindmaids tale not court packing?

Jearlpam0925

I mean yeah it could be interpreted as courtpacking. Definitely hypocritical that's for sure.