Nate Silver 538

benjs

Lerxst1992 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

benjs said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

And just like that after some higher quality polls yesterday, RCP is back to about a 5% lead in PA while 538, who doesn’t sway much with garbage polling, remains around 6%. 

I’ll make the point again, in 2016 RCP was more accurate than 538. In 2012, it probably was not. But that’s not enough to pre judge the current data.

I am liking most of the PA polls yesterday, except that Fox one at +5. As you know, Fox is a strong lean D, per  Nate (+1.5 IIRC).+5 Biden in a poll with a strong D lean seems to be within MoE. Hopefully pollsters are overcompensating for 2016 turnout, and it’s more like 2012. But that’s hope, not data.

A broken clock is right twice a day.

Exactly - same goes for an some guy I work with who now follows only Rasmussen because they were right in 2016. I proceeded to tell him every squirrel finds a nut. He also went on to think CA had a chance to go red because of some dumb tweet, sooo.... 

Confirmation bias is a helluva drug.

It’s more than just confirm bias or a broken clock. NCWs are the largest demo that most pollsters missed, and nobody is sure if they will bring a bigger tidal wave of support this time.

I also think its possible the AA dem base will also show up in big numbers, with Obama helping. I certainly miss having a leader like him. But that demo is much much smaller, so polling error there has a lower impact

Of course it's not a perfect science (though more scientific than choosing which polls to accept or refute by an unknown process), but pollsters account for the distribution bias as well, and it's the responsibility of the aggregators to assure that that's the case. I'd be shocked if Nate Silver doesn't factor in something that major in his model.

Jearlpam0925

Yeah NCWs have not been missed or some mysterious group that's just going to get bigger.

The Relentless Shrinking of Trump’s Base https://nyti.ms/2TtmJa5

Look, I get there's a chance Trump could win - and the % is non-trivial - but there's a fixed amount out there for him to reach. When he needed them last time he maxed out, and he barely won in 3 key states. If he wins again it's because he got that same miracle again. My assumption is that turnout will be higher in all other demos for Biden while Trump takes a larged enough marginal hit in this category for him to lose.

Not to mention he's going to get crushed in the suburbs.

Halifax2TheMax

Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat is behind in every demo except “whites.” That said, mail in ballots are being rejected and I’ll let you guess which demo they’re from.

Jearlpam0925

Mail ballot rejection in PA I believe is supposed to be ~ 2-3pts overall. Not great, but that could go either way - along with unaffiliated/infrequent voters. 

Speaking of which, this first woman in this article (actually the woman from Wynnewood, and the couple from South Philly) are the kind of people that drive me nuts. But this is exactly the kind of people outreach should be based around if people want to solidify a win.

https://whyy.org/articles/millions-of-pennsylvanians-skip-every-election-heres-why-this-year-could-be-different/

Basically if people want to stop shitting their pants about what could happen, or wincing every time Trump's %'s improve in the model - sign up for phone/text-banking, write postcards & letters, knock on some neighbors' doors. That's the only way to produce a win.

dignin

Jearlpam0925 said:

Mail ballot rejection in PA I believe is supposed to be ~ 2-3pts overall. Not great, but that could go either way - along with unaffiliated/infrequent voters. 

Speaking of which, this first woman in this article (actually the woman from Wynnewood, and the couple from South Philly) are the kind of people that drive me nuts. But this is exactly the kind of people outreach should be based around if people want to solidify a win.

https://whyy.org/articles/millions-of-pennsylvanians-skip-every-election-heres-why-this-year-could-be-different/

Basically if people want to stop shitting their pants about what could happen, or wincing every time Trump's %'s improve in the model - sign up for phone/text-banking, write postcards & letters, knock on some neighbors' doors. That's the only way to produce a win.

Amen to that. I volunteered in a few important campaigns. If I was in the states I would be hitting the streets/knocking on doors every night.

Jearlpam0925

dignin said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Mail ballot rejection in PA I believe is supposed to be ~ 2-3pts overall. Not great, but that could go either way - along with unaffiliated/infrequent voters. 

Speaking of which, this first woman in this article (actually the woman from Wynnewood, and the couple from South Philly) are the kind of people that drive me nuts. But this is exactly the kind of people outreach should be based around if people want to solidify a win.

https://whyy.org/articles/millions-of-pennsylvanians-skip-every-election-heres-why-this-year-could-be-different/

Basically if people want to stop shitting their pants about what could happen, or wincing every time Trump's %'s improve in the model - sign up for phone/text-banking, write postcards & letters, knock on some neighbors' doors. That's the only way to produce a win.

Amen to that. I volunteered in a few important campaigns. If I was in the states I would be hitting the streets/knocking on doors every night.

I know it's hard, but if everyone lifted an ounce no one would have to lift a pound. I've sent postcards to my neighbors, have called & texted them, and am knocking on doors when I can. PA was a matter of 44k stinking votes. I know we can make that up in my city alone. Just need everyone in PA & Philly to think along the same lines.

Gern Blansten

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1319358871731830785

Jearlpam0925

Wow. Yeah, that's yuge. That's at least a 5% increase - if there's a 5% increase in voter turnout in PA this shit's a done deal.

Something very most promising for me in 538's model is the output right now of the national popular vote - it has Republicans, at best, maxing out at about 48% and Dems, at best, dropping no further than close to 51%. Now a 3% overall popular vote margin doesn't guarantee a victory in the EC, but I'd say 5% probably does. 

The Juggler

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

And just like that after some higher quality polls yesterday, RCP is back to about a 5% lead in PA while 538, who doesn’t sway much with garbage polling, remains around 6%. 

I’ll make the point again, in 2016 RCP was more accurate than 538. In 2012, it probably was not. But that’s not enough to pre judge the current data.

I am liking most of the PA polls yesterday, except that Fox one at +5. As you know, Fox is a strong lean D, per  Nate (+1.5 IIRC).+5 Biden in a poll with a strong D lean seems to be within MoE. Hopefully pollsters are overcompensating for 2016 turnout, and it’s more like 2012. But that’s hope, not data.

I know others responded but I think you missed my point. RCP went down kind of wildly earlier in the week based off some weaker quality polling and that got you posting in here sounding the alarm. Meanwhile, 538 didn't change much because it has those polls weighted properly. So then when the higher quality stuff came out yesterday, RCP tilted back up close to where 538 is and has been for a long time. 

Rather than risk a devastating case of whiplash, trust Mr. Silver. He knows what he's doing. 

Biden's up around 5-6.5% and has been for MONTHS. He's in a really good spot with 10 days or whatever left. 

Gern Blansten

Yeah 538 is all you need.  GA and OH are back to tRump right now but might be blue with turnout being so high.

Biden just needs PA, MI and WI

HughFreakingDillon

i'm fucking nervous. this is becoming too close for my liking. 

Jearlpam0925

HughFreakingDillon said:

i'm fucking nervous. this is becoming too close for my liking. 

Postcards and texts are awaiting you. Haha.

So glad they finally wrote about this:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-surge-in-republican-voter-registration-might-not-mean-a-surge-in-trump-support/

The Juggler

I was a lot more nervous four years ago .

Gern Blansten

HughFreakingDillon said:

i'm fucking nervous. this is becoming too close for my liking. 

Funny that an 8 point lead still leads to anxiety isn't it?  

I have found myself worrying about what tRump will do if he loses.  I don't necessarily worry about him not conceding...I worry about him never accepting the results and being the sore loser for four years with his 40% chud following along.  Getting him out of office will be great but the shit attitude of his followers isn't going away.

He will most likely start a tRump TV network to siphon as much money off of the tRumpsters that he can.  My guess is that he will move out of the WH and stay at Mar-a-lago for two months to bilk the gov't for all that hotel and food money.

HughFreakingDillon

The Juggler said:

I was a lot more nervous four years ago .

that's part of my issue. i was uninformed 4 years ago and thought she had it in the bag. i had my bag of chips and my bottle of crown, ready to watch that turd get destroyed. 

i didn't go to work the next day. 

Gern Blansten

HughFreakingDillon said:

The Juggler said:

I was a lot more nervous four years ago .

that's part of my issue. i was uninformed 4 years ago and thought she had it in the bag. i had my bag of chips and my bottle of crown, ready to watch that turd get destroyed. 

i didn't go to work the next day. 

Just remember that Biden is polling above 50% in the states that he needs to win.  That wasn't the case four years ago.  Clinton was around 46-47 and tRump at 43-44 which left too many undecideds that tilted everything.

Biden above 50% + high turnout should = lights out

but yeah....shell shock from 2016 still

The Juggler

Gern Blansten said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

The Juggler said:

I was a lot more nervous four years ago .

that's part of my issue. i was uninformed 4 years ago and thought she had it in the bag. i had my bag of chips and my bottle of crown, ready to watch that turd get destroyed. 

i didn't go to work the next day. 

Just remember that Biden is polling above 50% in the states that he needs to win.  That wasn't the case four years ago.  Clinton was around 46-47 and tRump at 43-44 which left too many undecideds that tilted everything.

Biden above 50% + high turnout should = lights out

but yeah....shell shock from 2016 still

Yeah. Well I should say I was pretty confident until the Comey thing happened. 

Gern Blansten

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

The Juggler said:

I was a lot more nervous four years ago .

that's part of my issue. i was uninformed 4 years ago and thought she had it in the bag. i had my bag of chips and my bottle of crown, ready to watch that turd get destroyed. 

i didn't go to work the next day. 

Just remember that Biden is polling above 50% in the states that he needs to win.  That wasn't the case four years ago.  Clinton was around 46-47 and tRump at 43-44 which left too many undecideds that tilted everything.

Biden above 50% + high turnout should = lights out

but yeah....shell shock from 2016 still

Yeah. Well I should say I was pretty confident until the Comey thing happened. 

Watch "The Comey Rule" on Showtime....you will relive those moments from behind the scenes.

The Juggler

Gern Blansten said:

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

The Juggler said:

I was a lot more nervous four years ago .

that's part of my issue. i was uninformed 4 years ago and thought she had it in the bag. i had my bag of chips and my bottle of crown, ready to watch that turd get destroyed. 

i didn't go to work the next day. 

Just remember that Biden is polling above 50% in the states that he needs to win.  That wasn't the case four years ago.  Clinton was around 46-47 and tRump at 43-44 which left too many undecideds that tilted everything.

Biden above 50% + high turnout should = lights out

but yeah....shell shock from 2016 still

Yeah. Well I should say I was pretty confident until the Comey thing happened. 

Watch "The Comey Rule" on Showtime....you will relive those moments from behind the scenes.

I did but thought it was not good at all though. Had such a "made for tv" feeling to it. But, yeah, it definitely brought back that anxiety. 

benjs

Gern Blansten said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

i'm fucking nervous. this is becoming too close for my liking. 

Funny that an 8 point lead still leads to anxiety isn't it?  

I have found myself worrying about what tRump will do if he loses.  I don't necessarily worry about him not conceding...I worry about him never accepting the results and being the sore loser for four years with his 40% chud following along.  Getting him out of office will be great but the shit attitude of his followers isn't going away.

He will most likely start a tRump TV network to siphon as much money off of the tRumpsters that he can.  My guess is that he will move out of the WH and stay at Mar-a-lago for two months to bilk the gov't for all that hotel and food money.

That'd be the best benefit of Trump in prison - no more regularly hearing from this tremendous waste of oxygen.

Lerxst1992

OnWis97 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

benjs said:

Lerxst1992 said:

The Juggler said:

And just like that after some higher quality polls yesterday, RCP is back to about a 5% lead in PA while 538, who doesn’t sway much with garbage polling, remains around 6%. 

I’ll make the point again, in 2016 RCP was more accurate than 538. In 2012, it probably was not. But that’s not enough to pre judge the current data.

I am liking most of the PA polls yesterday, except that Fox one at +5. As you know, Fox is a strong lean D, per  Nate (+1.5 IIRC).+5 Biden in a poll with a strong D lean seems to be within MoE. Hopefully pollsters are overcompensating for 2016 turnout, and it’s more like 2012. But that’s hope, not data.

A broken clock is right twice a day.

Exactly - same goes for an some guy I work with who now follows only Rasmussen because they were right in 2016. I proceeded to tell him every squirrel finds a nut. He also went on to think CA had a chance to go red because of some dumb tweet, sooo.... 

Confirmation bias is a helluva drug.

It’s more than just confirm bias or a broken clock. NCWs are the largest demo that most pollsters missed, and nobody is sure if they will bring a bigger tidal wave of support this time.

I also think its possible the AA dem base will also show up in big numbers, with Obama helping. I certainly miss having a leader like him. But that demo is much much smaller, so polling error there has a lower impact

Non-college whites?

Why were they missed.

The key states WI PA MI ranged from 4-6% NCW underpolling which explains the difference between polls predictions of President Hillary Clinton and what actually occurred. 

GlowGirl

HughFreakingDillon said:

The Juggler said:

I was a lot more nervous four years ago .

that's part of my issue. i was uninformed 4 years ago and thought she had it in the bag. i had my bag of chips and my bottle of crown, ready to watch that turd get destroyed. 

i didn't go to work the next day. 

That was the worst night ever. One of my friends came over and we watched the whole brutal thing until 3:00am (or something like that). Next day I was so depressed. I work from home, but didn't leave my bed all day. Just brought the laptop to the bed with me. It was such a blow.

josevolution

Yeah in 16 I was totally shocked& depressed after the election, this time I’m not expecting anything good I’ll vote and if he wins I’ll just go about my business and start preparing for my retirement in 4yrs! 

Jearlpam0925

Expect the worst, hope for the best is my mantra.

But it'll absolutely still fucking sting if he wins.

Lerxst1992

That oil industry comment will be repeated by trump endlessly in PA. And he is going to find that clip about fracking and beam it to every PA TV every day til now thru Nov 3, with Biden on the commercial asking for it. 

Two enormous gaffs by Biden both razor targeted for Pennsylvanians. 

PJNB

Lerxst1992 said:

That oil industry comment will be repeated by trump endlessly in PA. And he is going to find that clip about fracking and beam it to every PA TV every day til now thru Nov 3, with Biden on the commercial asking for it. 

Two enormous gaffs by Biden both razor targeted for Pennsylvanians. 

52% of PA residents are against fracking though. Also if you were for fracking and it is that important to you to begin with you were already voting for Trump were you not? Who is this news to? 

tbergs

PJNB said:

Lerxst1992 said:

That oil industry comment will be repeated by trump endlessly in PA. And he is going to find that clip about fracking and beam it to every PA TV every day til now thru Nov 3, with Biden on the commercial asking for it. 

Two enormous gaffs by Biden both razor targeted for Pennsylvanians. 

52% of PA residents are against fracking though. Also if you were for fracking and it is that important to you to begin with you were already voting for Trump were you not? Who is this news to? 

What's dumb about all of it is that none of it will be done in 4 or 8 years. This is a long-term goal with phasing. You ease out the current systems while easing in the new and transitioning the jobs. If you don't, the natural consequence will be that it happens anyway, but more abruptly like we've seen with other industries/technology. People are just to ignorant to see it coming.

Halifax2TheMax

tbergs said:

PJNB said:

Lerxst1992 said:

That oil industry comment will be repeated by trump endlessly in PA. And he is going to find that clip about fracking and beam it to every PA TV every day til now thru Nov 3, with Biden on the commercial asking for it. 

Two enormous gaffs by Biden both razor targeted for Pennsylvanians. 

52% of PA residents are against fracking though. Also if you were for fracking and it is that important to you to begin with you were already voting for Trump were you not? Who is this news to? 

What's dumb about all of it is that none of it will be done in 4 or 8 years. This is a long-term goal with phasing. You ease out the current systems while easing in the new and transitioning the jobs. If you don't, the natural consequence will be that it happens anyway, but more abruptly like we've seen with other industries/technology. People are just to ignorant to see it coming.

And like BP is doing. There’s so much opportunity to be had in transitioning and partnering with the likes of amazon, Wal Mart, GM, Ford, etc. Electric vehicles, battery storage, reimagined grid, solar and wind farms, energy efficiency and on and on. But Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat digs coal and windmills kill birds and create “fumes.” Plus, he wants crystal clean water so he can waste it in the shower, taking a dump and washing his hands. The US will be left behind, again.

MayDay10

tbergs said:

PJNB said:

Lerxst1992 said:

That oil industry comment will be repeated by trump endlessly in PA. And he is going to find that clip about fracking and beam it to every PA TV every day til now thru Nov 3, with Biden on the commercial asking for it. 

Two enormous gaffs by Biden both razor targeted for Pennsylvanians. 

52% of PA residents are against fracking though. Also if you were for fracking and it is that important to you to begin with you were already voting for Trump were you not? Who is this news to? 

What's dumb about all of it is that none of it will be done in 4 or 8 years. This is a long-term goal with phasing. You ease out the current systems while easing in the new and transitioning the jobs. If you don't, the natural consequence will be that it happens anyway, but more abruptly like we've seen with other industries/technology. People are just to ignorant to see it coming.

Its an adult conversation that roughly 40% of the country is incapable of having. 

 

Halifax2TheMax

Think Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat has a clue?

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/opinion/op-ed/article14059787.html