And 538 includes Quinnipiac which is a very pro democratic poll, so it could go both ways.
RCP had Clinton +1.7 last time in PA and 538 was +3.7, so if I were Nate I wouldn’t be so dismissive about RCP. I’d say RCP a better job In PA last time. I hope Quinnipiac is right, but my expectation in an 87% chance race is that the tipping point state would have a more comfortable lead, one that’s nearly as solid as the national. I don’t think Nate can make that claim .
I’ve been chirping at Nate on social media about PA the last couple days, glad he’s paying attention
While 538 includes Quinnipiac along with other polls which tend to lean a specific direction, they do adjust for biases to counteract. Add to that the wisdom of the crowd benefit by aggregating across different polls.
And 538 includes Quinnipiac which is a very pro democratic poll, so it could go both ways.
RCP had Clinton +1.7 last time in PA and 538 was +3.7, so if I were Nate I wouldn’t be so dismissive about RCP. I’d say RCP a better job In PA last time. I hope Quinnipiac is right, but my expectation in an 87% chance race is that the tipping point state would have a more comfortable lead, one that’s nearly as solid as the national. I don’t think Nate can make that claim .
I’ve been chirping at Nate on social media about PA the last couple days, glad he’s paying attention
While 538 includes Quinnipiac along with other polls which tend to lean a specific direction, they do adjust for biases to counteract. Add to that the wisdom of the crowd benefit by aggregating across different polls.
Correct. Amundo.
Cmon. Quinnipiac has Biden +13 in PA. That’s clearly way off. Of course I wish it were correct.
Anyone want to take action on that spread? I’ll put a grand that Biden doesn’t win PA by that much. I’d happily lose that bet because if that poll were real the Dems will sweep into power almost everywhere.
RCP, for their lack of “wisdom of the crowd“ did a better job predicting PA last time. I am not saying they will be more accurate again, but their data is at a minimum, respectable.
As stated, 538 recognizes how Quinnipiac skews and adjusts the probabilities.
Rasmussen... basically the Quinnipiac counterweight, has biden up by 3 in PA.
there are a bunch in the middle, typically more accurate. Their methods, trends. everything is taken into account. Last turn, 538 had was one of the only places that gave trump a decent statistical shot.
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,341
As stated, 538 recognizes how Quinnipiac skews and adjusts the probabilities.
Rasmussen... basically the Quinnipiac counterweight, has biden up by 3 in PA.
there are a bunch in the middle, typically more accurate. Their methods, trends. everything is taken into account. Last turn, 538 had was one of the only places that gave trump a decent statistical shot.
CORRECT. AMUNDO.
Come on, Lex. What is so difficult here?
Suffolk today out with Biden up 6 in PA. "A" rated pollster. Given all the info we have, that sounds....SHOCKINGLY ACCURATE! lol
Filter all polling this month by those rated B and above (so you get rid of Rasmussen, Trafalgar and also Survey Monkey, etc)....and you have Biden up by an average of 7.8%
Looking good with under two weeks to go. Big debate tomorrow and we already know the president somehow made a fool of himself on 60 Minutes on Sunday and is doing nothing but drawing more attention to it. Get those confidence levels up, people.
As stated, 538 recognizes how Quinnipiac skews and adjusts the probabilities.
Rasmussen... basically the Quinnipiac counterweight, has biden up by 3 in PA.
there are a bunch in the middle, typically more accurate. Their methods, trends. everything is taken into account. Last turn, 538 had was one of the only places that gave trump a decent statistical shot.
CORRECT. AMUNDO.
Come on, Lex. What is so difficult here?
Suffolk today out with Biden up 6 in PA. "A" rated pollster. Given all the info we have, that sounds....SHOCKINGLY ACCURATE! lol
Filter all polling this month by those rated B and above (so you get rid of Rasmussen, Trafalgar and also Survey Monkey, etc)....and you have Biden up by an average of 7.8%
Looking good with under two weeks to go. Big debate tomorrow and we already know the president somehow made a fool of himself on 60 Minutes on Sunday and is doing nothing but drawing more attention to it. Get those confidence levels up, people.
Get your asses out to VOTE! Sleepy Woke Joe Basement Biden is down 23! Nationwide!
As stated, 538 recognizes how Quinnipiac skews and adjusts the probabilities.
Rasmussen... basically the Quinnipiac counterweight, has biden up by 3 in PA.
there are a bunch in the middle, typically more accurate. Their methods, trends. everything is taken into account. Last turn, 538 had was one of the only places that gave trump a decent statistical shot.
CORRECT. AMUNDO.
Come on, Lex. What is so difficult here?
Suffolk today out with Biden up 6 in PA. "A" rated pollster. Given all the info we have, that sounds....SHOCKINGLY ACCURATE! lol
Filter all polling this month by those rated B and above (so you get rid of Rasmussen, Trafalgar and also Survey Monkey, etc)....and you have Biden up by an average of 7.8%
Looking good with under two weeks to go. Big debate tomorrow and we already know the president somehow made a fool of himself on 60 Minutes on Sunday and is doing nothing but drawing more attention to it. Get those confidence levels up, people.
Get your asses out to VOTE! Sleepy Woke Joe Basement Biden is down 23! Nationwide!
And 538 includes Quinnipiac which is a very pro democratic poll, so it could go both ways.
RCP had Clinton +1.7 last time in PA and 538 was +3.7, so if I were Nate I wouldn’t be so dismissive about RCP. I’d say RCP a better job In PA last time. I hope Quinnipiac is right, but my expectation in an 87% chance race is that the tipping point state would have a more comfortable lead, one that’s nearly as solid as the national. I don’t think Nate can make that claim .
I’ve been chirping at Nate on social media about PA the last couple days, glad he’s paying attention
While 538 includes Quinnipiac along with other polls which tend to lean a specific direction, they do adjust for biases to counteract. Add to that the wisdom of the crowd benefit by aggregating across different polls.
Correct. Amundo.
Cmon. Quinnipiac has Biden +13 in PA. That’s clearly way off. Of course I wish it were correct.
Anyone want to take action on that spread? I’ll put a grand that Biden doesn’t win PA by that much. I’d happily lose that bet because if that poll were real the Dems will sweep into power almost everywhere.
RCP, for their lack of “wisdom of the crowd“ did a better job predicting PA last time. I am not saying they will be more accurate again, but their data is at a minimum, respectable.
They use them but they discount the results based on past performance....this isn't rocket science. If Quinn is normally 20% overstated they will discount the result by 20% in their model.
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As stated, 538 recognizes how Quinnipiac skews and adjusts the probabilities.
Rasmussen... basically the Quinnipiac counterweight, has biden up by 3 in PA.
there are a bunch in the middle, typically more accurate. Their methods, trends. everything is taken into account. Last turn, 538 had was one of the only places that gave trump a decent statistical shot.
CORRECT. AMUNDO.
Come on, Lex. What is so difficult here?
Suffolk today out with Biden up 6 in PA. "A" rated pollster. Given all the info we have, that sounds....SHOCKINGLY ACCURATE! lol
Filter all polling this month by those rated B and above (so you get rid of Rasmussen, Trafalgar and also Survey Monkey, etc)....and you have Biden up by an average of 7.8%
Looking good with under two weeks to go. Big debate tomorrow and we already know the president somehow made a fool of himself on 60 Minutes on Sunday and is doing nothing but drawing more attention to it. Get those confidence levels up, people.
Get your asses out to VOTE! Sleepy Woke Joe Basement Biden is down 23! Nationwide!
Already did. I'm only allowed to vote once.
Everytime I hear Republicans cry about their fantasy version of voter fraud a little part of me wishes it was real. If so I would drive up to New Hampshire and vote every election.
As stated, 538 recognizes how Quinnipiac skews and adjusts the probabilities.
Rasmussen... basically the Quinnipiac counterweight, has biden up by 3 in PA.
there are a bunch in the middle, typically more accurate. Their methods, trends. everything is taken into account. Last turn, 538 had was one of the only places that gave trump a decent statistical shot.
CORRECT. AMUNDO.
Come on, Lex. What is so difficult here?
Suffolk today out with Biden up 6 in PA. "A" rated pollster. Given all the info we have, that sounds....SHOCKINGLY ACCURATE! lol
Filter all polling this month by those rated B and above (so you get rid of Rasmussen, Trafalgar and also Survey Monkey, etc)....and you have Biden up by an average of 7.8%
Looking good with under two weeks to go. Big debate tomorrow and we already know the president somehow made a fool of himself on 60 Minutes on Sunday and is doing nothing but drawing more attention to it. Get those confidence levels up, people.
I think my point is simple and I hope it’s clear I believe Biden has a better chance to win than trump. But I don’t think RCPs data can be disregarded because we think Nates process is the best. He was actually outperformed by RCPs much simpler process last time. I don’t believe that guarantees anything this year, but gives me just enough pause to say an 88% race should not have tipping point states within or close to the MoE.
What Nate said last time, “trump is one poling error from winning” seems to be applicable again. Last time nationally. This time in PA FL NC AZ which are the key tipping point states all within MoE.
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,341
As stated, 538 recognizes how Quinnipiac skews and adjusts the probabilities.
Rasmussen... basically the Quinnipiac counterweight, has biden up by 3 in PA.
there are a bunch in the middle, typically more accurate. Their methods, trends. everything is taken into account. Last turn, 538 had was one of the only places that gave trump a decent statistical shot.
CORRECT. AMUNDO.
Come on, Lex. What is so difficult here?
Suffolk today out with Biden up 6 in PA. "A" rated pollster. Given all the info we have, that sounds....SHOCKINGLY ACCURATE! lol
Filter all polling this month by those rated B and above (so you get rid of Rasmussen, Trafalgar and also Survey Monkey, etc)....and you have Biden up by an average of 7.8%
Looking good with under two weeks to go. Big debate tomorrow and we already know the president somehow made a fool of himself on 60 Minutes on Sunday and is doing nothing but drawing more attention to it. Get those confidence levels up, people.
I think my point is simple and I hope it’s clear I believe Biden has a better chance to win than trump. But I don’t think RCPs data can be disregarded because we think Nates process is the best. He was actually outperformed by RCPs much simpler process last time. I don’t believe that guarantees anything this year, but gives me just enough pause to say an 88% race should not have tipping point states within or close to the MoE.
What Nate said last time, “trump is one poling error from winning” seems to be applicable again. Last time nationally. This time in PA FL NC AZ which are the key tipping point states all within MoE.
RCP doesn't do anything with the polls but average them, right? It's not an analytical exercise.
As stated, 538 recognizes how Quinnipiac skews and adjusts the probabilities.
Rasmussen... basically the Quinnipiac counterweight, has biden up by 3 in PA.
there are a bunch in the middle, typically more accurate. Their methods, trends. everything is taken into account. Last turn, 538 had was one of the only places that gave trump a decent statistical shot.
CORRECT. AMUNDO.
Come on, Lex. What is so difficult here?
Suffolk today out with Biden up 6 in PA. "A" rated pollster. Given all the info we have, that sounds....SHOCKINGLY ACCURATE! lol
Filter all polling this month by those rated B and above (so you get rid of Rasmussen, Trafalgar and also Survey Monkey, etc)....and you have Biden up by an average of 7.8%
Looking good with under two weeks to go. Big debate tomorrow and we already know the president somehow made a fool of himself on 60 Minutes on Sunday and is doing nothing but drawing more attention to it. Get those confidence levels up, people.
I think my point is simple and I hope it’s clear I believe Biden has a better chance to win than trump. But I don’t think RCPs data can be disregarded because we think Nates process is the best. He was actually outperformed by RCPs much simpler process last time. I don’t believe that guarantees anything this year, but gives me just enough pause to say an 88% race should not have tipping point states within or close to the MoE.
What Nate said last time, “trump is one poling error from winning” seems to be applicable again. Last time nationally. This time in PA FL NC AZ which are the key tipping point states all within MoE.
RCP doesn't do anything with the polls but average them, right? It's not an analytical exercise.
They have some sort of system including some and excluding others. Early voting data being released is giving me hope the polls will not be overwhelmed with NCW Trumpsters.
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,341
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,341
edited October 2020
And just like that after some higher quality polls yesterday, RCP is back to about a 5% lead in PA while 538, who doesn’t sway much with garbage polling, remains around 6%.
And just like that after some higher quality polls yesterday, RCP is back to about a 5% lead in PA while 538, who doesn’t sway much with garbage polling, remains around 6%.
I’ll make the point again, in 2016 RCP was more accurate than 538. In 2012, it probably was not. But that’s not enough to pre judge the current data.
I am liking most of the PA polls yesterday, except that Fox one at +5. As you know, Fox is a strong lean D, per Nate (+1.5 IIRC).+5 Biden in a poll with a strong D lean seems to be within MoE. Hopefully pollsters are overcompensating for 2016 turnout, and it’s more like 2012. But that’s hope, not data.
And just like that after some higher quality polls yesterday, RCP is back to about a 5% lead in PA while 538, who doesn’t sway much with garbage polling, remains around 6%.
I’ll make the point again, in 2016 RCP was more accurate than 538. In 2012, it probably was not. But that’s not enough to pre judge the current data.
I am liking most of the PA polls yesterday, except that Fox one at +5. As you know, Fox is a strong lean D, per Nate (+1.5 IIRC).+5 Biden in a poll with a strong D lean seems to be within MoE. Hopefully pollsters are overcompensating for 2016 turnout, and it’s more like 2012. But that’s hope, not data.
A broken clock is right twice a day.
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EV
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And just like that after some higher quality polls yesterday, RCP is back to about a 5% lead in PA while 538, who doesn’t sway much with garbage polling, remains around 6%.
I’ll make the point again, in 2016 RCP was more accurate than 538. In 2012, it probably was not. But that’s not enough to pre judge the current data.
I am liking most of the PA polls yesterday, except that Fox one at +5. As you know, Fox is a strong lean D, per Nate (+1.5 IIRC).+5 Biden in a poll with a strong D lean seems to be within MoE. Hopefully pollsters are overcompensating for 2016 turnout, and it’s more like 2012. But that’s hope, not data.
A broken clock is right twice a day.
Exactly - same goes for an some guy I work with who now follows only Rasmussen because they were right in 2016. I proceeded to tell him every squirrel finds a nut. He also went on to think CA had a chance to go red because of some dumb tweet, sooo....
And just like that after some higher quality polls yesterday, RCP is back to about a 5% lead in PA while 538, who doesn’t sway much with garbage polling, remains around 6%.
I’ll make the point again, in 2016 RCP was more accurate than 538. In 2012, it probably was not. But that’s not enough to pre judge the current data.
I am liking most of the PA polls yesterday, except that Fox one at +5. As you know, Fox is a strong lean D, per Nate (+1.5 IIRC).+5 Biden in a poll with a strong D lean seems to be within MoE. Hopefully pollsters are overcompensating for 2016 turnout, and it’s more like 2012. But that’s hope, not data.
A broken clock is right twice a day.
Exactly - same goes for an some guy I work with who now follows only Rasmussen because they were right in 2016. I proceeded to tell him every squirrel finds a nut. He also went on to think CA had a chance to go red because of some dumb tweet, sooo....
Confirmation bias is a helluva drug.
It’s more than just confirm bias or a broken clock. NCWs are the largest demo that most pollsters missed, and nobody is sure if they will bring a bigger tidal wave of support this time.
I also think its possible the AA dem base will also show up in big numbers, with Obama helping. I certainly miss having a leader like him. But that demo is much much smaller, so polling error there has a lower impact
And just like that after some higher quality polls yesterday, RCP is back to about a 5% lead in PA while 538, who doesn’t sway much with garbage polling, remains around 6%.
I’ll make the point again, in 2016 RCP was more accurate than 538. In 2012, it probably was not. But that’s not enough to pre judge the current data.
I am liking most of the PA polls yesterday, except that Fox one at +5. As you know, Fox is a strong lean D, per Nate (+1.5 IIRC).+5 Biden in a poll with a strong D lean seems to be within MoE. Hopefully pollsters are overcompensating for 2016 turnout, and it’s more like 2012. But that’s hope, not data.
A broken clock is right twice a day.
Exactly - same goes for an some guy I work with who now follows only Rasmussen because they were right in 2016. I proceeded to tell him every squirrel finds a nut. He also went on to think CA had a chance to go red because of some dumb tweet, sooo....
Confirmation bias is a helluva drug.
It’s more than just confirm bias or a broken clock. NCWs are the largest demo that most pollsters missed, and nobody is sure if they will bring a bigger tidal wave of support this time.
I also think its possible the AA dem base will also show up in big numbers, with Obama helping. I certainly miss having a leader like him. But that demo is much much smaller, so polling error there has a lower impact
Non-college whites?
Why were they missed.
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Amundo.
Anyone want to take action on that spread? I’ll put a grand that Biden doesn’t win PA by that much. I’d happily lose that bet because if that poll were real the Dems will sweep into power almost everywhere.
RCP, for their lack of “wisdom of the crowd“ did a better job predicting PA last time. I am not saying they will be more accurate again, but their data is at a minimum, respectable.
Rasmussen... basically the Quinnipiac counterweight, has biden up by 3 in PA.
there are a bunch in the middle, typically more accurate. Their methods, trends. everything is taken into account. Last turn, 538 had was one of the only places that gave trump a decent statistical shot.
AMUNDO.
Come on, Lex. What is so difficult here?
Suffolk today out with Biden up 6 in PA. "A" rated pollster. Given all the info we have, that sounds....SHOCKINGLY ACCURATE! lol
Filter all polling this month by those rated B and above (so you get rid of Rasmussen, Trafalgar and also Survey Monkey, etc)....and you have Biden up by an average of 7.8%
Looking good with under two weeks to go. Big debate tomorrow and we already know the president somehow made a fool of himself on 60 Minutes on Sunday and is doing nothing but drawing more attention to it. Get those confidence levels up, people.
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2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
Almost two months later...
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
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"...I changed by not changing at all..."
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/
It's basically 270toWin's, but with 538's model applied. Very cool.
What Nate said last time, “trump is one poling error from winning” seems to be applicable again. Last time nationally. This time in PA FL NC AZ which are the key tipping point states all within MoE.
Good stuff.
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
I am liking most of the PA polls yesterday, except that Fox one at +5. As you know, Fox is a strong lean D, per Nate (+1.5 IIRC).+5 Biden in a poll with a strong D lean seems to be within MoE. Hopefully pollsters are overcompensating for 2016 turnout, and it’s more like 2012. But that’s hope, not data.
EV
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For reference....HC was 70% on election day
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2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
Confirmation bias is a helluva drug.
I also think its possible the AA dem base will also show up in big numbers, with Obama helping. I certainly miss having a leader like him. But that demo is much much smaller, so polling error there has a lower impact
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