Nate Silver 538

darwinstheory

MayDay10 said:

that debate was a damn disaster for trump, huh

And every subsequent minute thereafter. Good riddance because that orange piece of shit deserves every last bit of it.

Jearlpam0925

Anybody listen to The Political Trade podcast? https://luckboxmagazine.com/tpt/

They had the guy from Trafalgar on recently. It's astounding how many people are getting recognition for calling one election - mainly Trafalgar and Rasmussen.

Semi-related note - really getting into the predictit betting market now. Good times.

OnWis97

mrussel1 said:

MayDay10 said:

that debate was a damn disaster for trump, huh

Yes but I think the COVID really crystallized the recklessness of Trump. You can see how few undecided voters are left now. 

And the belief that he beat Covid in 4 days probably cushioned that blow. If he starts getting worse again, it's going hurt his polling even more. (Of course, they'll do all they can to hide that).

Gern Blansten

OnWis97 said:

mrussel1 said:

MayDay10 said:

that debate was a damn disaster for trump, huh

Yes but I think the COVID really crystallized the recklessness of Trump. You can see how few undecided voters are left now. 

And the belief that he beat Covid in 4 days probably cushioned that blow. If he starts getting worse again, it's going hurt his polling even more. (Of course, they'll do all they can to hide that).

Or...if someone in his orbit (Christie, Giulianni, etc.) gets horribly ill.  

Lerxst1992

Jearlpam0925 said:

Anybody listen to The Political Trade podcast? https://luckboxmagazine.com/tpt/

They had the guy from Trafalgar on recently. It's astounding how many people are getting recognition for calling one election - mainly Trafalgar and Rasmussen.

Semi-related note - really getting into the predictit betting market now. Good times.

when you call the biggest upset of the last 50 years it’s quite an accomplishment.

The mainstream pollsters are toast if they get this election wrong.

Jearlpam0925

Lerxst1992 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Anybody listen to The Political Trade podcast? https://luckboxmagazine.com/tpt/

They had the guy from Trafalgar on recently. It's astounding how many people are getting recognition for calling one election - mainly Trafalgar and Rasmussen.

Semi-related note - really getting into the predictit betting market now. Good times.

when you call the biggest upset of the last 50 years it’s quite an accomplishment.

The mainstream pollsters are toast if they get this election wrong.

Mainstream pollsters? Haha, what? The point is every squirrel finds a nut.

Rasmussen was also the least accurate in 2018 btw. And their 2016 call had Hillary winning the popular vote by 2 points. If Biden's leading the national popular vote by at least 7 he wins. Right now he's averaging somewhere around 8.5.

bootleg

The Juggler said:

Guys, I don't think these polls are picking up shy Trump voters

Never underestimate the secret hate vote.

The Juggler

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Anybody listen to The Political Trade podcast? https://luckboxmagazine.com/tpt/

They had the guy from Trafalgar on recently. It's astounding how many people are getting recognition for calling one election - mainly Trafalgar and Rasmussen.

Semi-related note - really getting into the predictit betting market now. Good times.

when you call the biggest upset of the last 50 years it’s quite an accomplishment.

The mainstream pollsters are toast if they get this election wrong.

Mainstream pollsters? Haha, what? The point is every squirrel finds a nut.

Rasmussen was also the least accurate in 2018 btw. And their 2016 call had Hillary winning the popular vote by 2 points. If Biden's leading the national popular vote by at least 7 he wins. Right now he's averaging somewhere around 8.5.

Even Rasmussen today has Biden up 12

mrussel1

The Juggler said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Anybody listen to The Political Trade podcast? https://luckboxmagazine.com/tpt/

They had the guy from Trafalgar on recently. It's astounding how many people are getting recognition for calling one election - mainly Trafalgar and Rasmussen.

Semi-related note - really getting into the predictit betting market now. Good times.

when you call the biggest upset of the last 50 years it’s quite an accomplishment.

The mainstream pollsters are toast if they get this election wrong.

Mainstream pollsters? Haha, what? The point is every squirrel finds a nut.

Rasmussen was also the least accurate in 2018 btw. And their 2016 call had Hillary winning the popular vote by 2 points. If Biden's leading the national popular vote by at least 7 he wins. Right now he's averaging somewhere around 8.5.

Even Rasmussen today has Biden up 12

There's probably a bit of non response bias.  That can happen after a big partisan event.  Some people on the side that got hurt don't want to talk. Pollsters will take that into account and adjust but you don't know if you got the numbers right.  I would think the numbers come back down.  No way does Biden win 57% or whatever.  Naturally right center people will drift back after some better news.   But I still think there's a real lasting bump. 

PJNB

538 now has odds at 84% Biden 16% Trump, and Trumps odds have been dropping about a point a day.

Their electoral prediction is currently 343 to 195, and they say Biden is likely to even go above that.

darwinstheory

PJNB said:

538 now has odds at 84% Biden 16% Trump, and Trumps odds have been dropping about a point a day.

Their electoral prediction is currently 343 to 195, and they say Biden is likely to even go above that.

That would be a very well deserved literal ass kicking for the narcissistic orange fuck. I really hope the time from now until Biden’s inauguration are the worst days of his miserable life. After that, who gives a flying rats ass.

darwinstheory

Down now to 84% and 15% - a slight change,  sure, but a change for the better nonetheless. 

Jearlpam0925

I love nerding out on this shit.

When I check his numbers I don't really get caught up in his electoral vote prediction, though you definitely have to look at specific states (swing) for the overall prediction of a win, or his %s. 84 out of 16 still means 16 times out of 100 is a Trump win, which is not nothing. If you were rolling dice and hit on the first roll (Election Day) then game over.

Personally, I'll look at his popular vote prediction and then specifically look at FL, PA, MI, WI, AZ. The thought is anything over 6 points is a win. I like to play it conservative and say 7. Right now he has Biden at 7.9 - I really don't think 130+ electoral margin is going to happen, though I think a 100+ could definitely happen. If Biden gets FL it's a done deal. If he loses FL but regains PA it's also a lock because I don't see him losing 2 of PA/WI/MI like how 2016 happened. The only way that happens is if AZ doesn't push over like so many think then all of a sudden NE2 comes into play (Obamaha).

Pretty wild to see The Economist has Biden up to 91% to win the electoral vote. Any time %'s get to 95% you can call it an absolute certainty (depending on the source and this is a good source).

To me, if it's a blowout electorally (via the popular vote it will be a blowout), this is what it looks like:

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

But this is my realistic prediction:

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Lerxst1992

Jearlpam0925 said:

I love nerding out on this shit.

When I check his numbers I don't really get caught up in his electoral vote prediction, though you definitely have to look at specific states (swing) for the overall prediction of a win, or his %s. 84 out of 16 still means 16 times out of 100 is a Trump win, which is not nothing. If you were rolling dice and hit on the first roll (Election Day) then game over.

Personally, I'll look at his popular vote prediction and then specifically look at FL, PA, MI, WI, AZ. The thought is anything over 6 points is a win. I like to play it conservative and say 7. Right now he has Biden at 7.9 - I really don't think 130+ electoral margin is going to happen, though I think a 100+ could definitely happen. If Biden gets FL it's a done deal. If he loses FL but regains PA it's also a lock because I don't see him losing 2 of PA/WI/MI like how 2016 happened. The only way that happens is if AZ doesn't push over like so many think then all of a sudden NE2 comes into play (Obamaha).

Pretty wild to see The Economist has Biden up to 91% to win the electoral vote. Any time %'s get to 95% you can call it an absolute certainty (depending on the source and this is a good source).

To me, if it's a blowout electorally (via the popular vote it will be a blowout), this is what it looks like:

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

But this is my realistic prediction:

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Flip PA and ME2 and we have a tie.

The Juggler

I think NC is going Biden....Ohio maybe too. 

Jearlpam0925

Lerxst1992 said:

Flip PA and ME2 and we have a tie.

Sure but I don't see that happening. These are my predictions. Biden is killing it in Maine. And I think there's more of a chance of him losing WI than PA. I live in PA and I'm almost at the point of calling it here. The amount of work I know locally we're doing is going to pay off. Trump had everything bounce in his favor in 2016 and he still barely won by ~44k votes. PA can make that up in Philly alone.

Jearlpam0925

The Juggler said:

I think NC is going Biden....Ohio maybe too. 

No way on Ohio. I'm sorry I just don't see it. Not impossible, but I just can't believe it. NC maybe, but I think Cal Cunningham may be fucking it all up down there.

Gern Blansten

I heard tRump talking about Cunningham this morning..."this guy had like two affairs"...digest that for a second

Jearlpam0925

Gern Blansten said:

I heard tRump talking about Cunningham this morning..."this guy had like two affairs"...digest that for a second

Haha, I hear you, but we're not here - nor the last four years - because of rational thinking.

I think this article sums it up pretty well. I think he got a lot of people that just said, "fuck it. let's see how it goes", who are not complete imbeciles - privileged, yes, but not imbeciles. Oh, and the whole "he's a businessman" schtick, when what they really meant was they liked the tough guy boss persona from a made-up, scripted TV show where he fired celebrities.

Jearlpam0925

I will say - don't sleep on Iowa. I think I could see that before Ohio.