Nate Silver 538

mrussel1

bootleg said:

dignin said:

Jimmy Failla: Trump is on pace to win 2020 election in a 'lawn-slide' -- here's why I say that

Trucker polls show Trump enjoying a massive edge in signage

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-win-2020-lawn-slide-jimmy-failla

Trumpeters tend to be pretty loud about it so that’s one reason you’ll see more signs.  The other reason is Biden supporters likely don’t want to paint a big target on their house since Trump is also the party of more crazy nut jobs.

It's also because many Democrats have a little class and aren't interested in being in a cult.  The argument is the last vestige of desperation,  when you have nothing else. 

dignin

mrussel1 said:

bootleg said:

dignin said:

Jimmy Failla: Trump is on pace to win 2020 election in a 'lawn-slide' -- here's why I say that

Trucker polls show Trump enjoying a massive edge in signage

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-win-2020-lawn-slide-jimmy-failla

Trumpeters tend to be pretty loud about it so that’s one reason you’ll see more signs.  The other reason is Biden supporters likely don’t want to paint a big target on their house since Trump is also the party of more crazy nut jobs.

It's also because many Democrats have a little class and aren't interested in being in a cult.  The argument is the last vestige of desperation,  when you have nothing else. 

Yeah, I posted the article as a joke. Fox can't point to actual polls, so they have to resort to printing garbage like this.

Kinda like how for the last day Hillary's emails have been their top story on their website. They are such a farce.

mrussel1

dignin said:

mrussel1 said:

bootleg said:

dignin said:

Jimmy Failla: Trump is on pace to win 2020 election in a 'lawn-slide' -- here's why I say that

Trucker polls show Trump enjoying a massive edge in signage

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-win-2020-lawn-slide-jimmy-failla

Trumpeters tend to be pretty loud about it so that’s one reason you’ll see more signs.  The other reason is Biden supporters likely don’t want to paint a big target on their house since Trump is also the party of more crazy nut jobs.

It's also because many Democrats have a little class and aren't interested in being in a cult.  The argument is the last vestige of desperation,  when you have nothing else. 

Yeah, I posted the article as a joke. Fox can't point to actual polls, so they have to resort to printing garbage like this.

Kinda like how for the last day Hillary's emails have been their top story on their website. They are such a farce.

haha.. I know.  They're down to the last bag of tricks.  Everyone is past 2016.  

HughFreakingDillon

The Juggler said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

So does someone go out of their way to pay for a PJ membership only to make 14 comments that could be better served in the Facebook comment section of a Breitbart article?

Like bots can't sign up for a board membership right? So like this takes some serious work to want to troll a board where you pay right? On a semi-related note - I would pay a lot more for privileges here so that dips like this could not justify hanging around.

On a thread-related note:

My sources for following are: 1) 538 2) The Economist's model 3) PredictIt.org 4) 270towin.com - I think these 3, 4 sources will give you the greatest mosaic on getting a picture of what's going on.

i've actually seen people get banned after less than 10 posts, brand new member (not just new to posting). 

Who are we talking about here, gents?

i don't know the specifics of who jearlpam is talking about, i was just saying i've actually seen it before, with someone obviously buying a membership and purposely getting banned within a few posts. 

HughFreakingDillon

i'd never put a tacky political sign in my yard. never understood the point. i always love driving by a house that has two signs, one from each party. makes me wonder how dinnertime is at that house. 

MayDay10

mrussel1 said:

bootleg said:

dignin said:

Jimmy Failla: Trump is on pace to win 2020 election in a 'lawn-slide' -- here's why I say that

Trucker polls show Trump enjoying a massive edge in signage

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-win-2020-lawn-slide-jimmy-failla

Trumpeters tend to be pretty loud about it so that’s one reason you’ll see more signs.  The other reason is Biden supporters likely don’t want to paint a big target on their house since Trump is also the party of more crazy nut jobs.

It's also because many Democrats have a little class and aren't interested in being in a cult.  The argument is the last vestige of desperation,  when you have nothing else. 

Yeah.  I liked Obama, kind of.  I would never wear an Obama hat with some slogan, or a shirt, or anything else.  I wouldnt even put a partisan sticker on my vehicle.  Its silly, and I have my own identity without trying to latch on some political party.  All those sill chotchky items like commemorative coins, mugs, etc. My god.  get a life.  Or the pickup trucks with the penis-compensating American and Trump flags on the back.  Whoa.  Cool!

In the past few weeks, I have seen several cars with a TRUMP 2020 NO MORE BULLSHIT bumper sticker.  This is with my kids in the car.  This is our president.  These are (I would assume) adults who buy this sticker and attach it to the paint of their $30,000 vehicle.  WTF.  Can we all just go to time out?

HughFreakingDillon

MayDay10 said:

mrussel1 said:

bootleg said:

dignin said:

Jimmy Failla: Trump is on pace to win 2020 election in a 'lawn-slide' -- here's why I say that

Trucker polls show Trump enjoying a massive edge in signage

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-win-2020-lawn-slide-jimmy-failla

Trumpeters tend to be pretty loud about it so that’s one reason you’ll see more signs.  The other reason is Biden supporters likely don’t want to paint a big target on their house since Trump is also the party of more crazy nut jobs.

It's also because many Democrats have a little class and aren't interested in being in a cult.  The argument is the last vestige of desperation,  when you have nothing else. 

Yeah.  I liked Obama, kind of.  I would never wear an Obama hat with some slogan, or a shirt, or anything else.  I wouldnt even put a partisan sticker on my vehicle.  Its silly, and I have my own identity without trying to latch on some political party.  All those sill chotchky items like commemorative coins, mugs, etc. My god.  get a life.  Or the pickup trucks with the penis-compensating American and Trump flags on the back.  Whoa.  Cool!

In the past few weeks, I have seen several cars with a TRUMP 2020 NO MORE BULLSHIT bumper sticker.  This is with my kids in the car.  This is our president.  These are (I would assume) adults who buy this sticker and attach it to the paint of their $30,000 vehicle.  WTF.  Can we all just go to time out?

I previously agreed with this, however, I started thinking about parallels. I mean, how different is it with any given passion? people put band (PEARL JAM) stickers on their cars. I was just thinking, if Pearl Jam called me and asked if they could put a sign in my yard to advertise my support for their upcoming show, damn rights I'd say yes. LOL. then after the show I'd probably hang that sign on my bar, and they'd be going for hundreds in Lost Dogs and eBay. 

people were buying dog collars and hideous track suits with the band's name on it. I bought a fucking balaclava that is itchy as fuck and i'll probably never wear just because I love Jeff Ament. and how many thousands have pearl jam/stickman tattoos? talk about a cult. LOL

tbergs

MayDay10 said:

mrussel1 said:

bootleg said:

dignin said:

Jimmy Failla: Trump is on pace to win 2020 election in a 'lawn-slide' -- here's why I say that

Trucker polls show Trump enjoying a massive edge in signage

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-win-2020-lawn-slide-jimmy-failla

Trumpeters tend to be pretty loud about it so that’s one reason you’ll see more signs.  The other reason is Biden supporters likely don’t want to paint a big target on their house since Trump is also the party of more crazy nut jobs.

It's also because many Democrats have a little class and aren't interested in being in a cult.  The argument is the last vestige of desperation,  when you have nothing else. 

Yeah.  I liked Obama, kind of.  I would never wear an Obama hat with some slogan, or a shirt, or anything else.  I wouldnt even put a partisan sticker on my vehicle.  Its silly, and I have my own identity without trying to latch on some political party.  All those sill chotchky items like commemorative coins, mugs, etc. My god.  get a life.  Or the pickup trucks with the penis-compensating American and Trump flags on the back.  Whoa.  Cool!

In the past few weeks, I have seen several cars with a TRUMP 2020 NO MORE BULLSHIT bumper sticker.  This is with my kids in the car.  This is our president.  These are (I would assume) adults who buy this sticker and attach it to the paint of their $30,000 vehicle.  WTF.  Can we all just go to time out?

I feel like it's a blatant sign of mental illness. The trucks with the massive duo of US and Trump flags on the back are redonkulous. They only do it because they want to get a response out of the non-supporters.

OnWis97

MayDay10 said:

mrussel1 said:

bootleg said:

dignin said:

Jimmy Failla: Trump is on pace to win 2020 election in a 'lawn-slide' -- here's why I say that

Trucker polls show Trump enjoying a massive edge in signage

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-win-2020-lawn-slide-jimmy-failla

Trumpeters tend to be pretty loud about it so that’s one reason you’ll see more signs.  The other reason is Biden supporters likely don’t want to paint a big target on their house since Trump is also the party of more crazy nut jobs.

It's also because many Democrats have a little class and aren't interested in being in a cult.  The argument is the last vestige of desperation,  when you have nothing else. 

Yeah.  I liked Obama, kind of.  I would never wear an Obama hat with some slogan, or a shirt, or anything else.  I wouldnt even put a partisan sticker on my vehicle.  Its silly, and I have my own identity without trying to latch on some political party.  All those sill chotchky items like commemorative coins, mugs, etc. My god.  get a life.  Or the pickup trucks with the penis-compensating American and Trump flags on the back.  Whoa.  Cool!

In the past few weeks, I have seen several cars with a TRUMP 2020 NO MORE BULLSHIT bumper sticker.  This is with my kids in the car.  This is our president.  These are (I would assume) adults who buy this sticker and attach it to the paint of their $30,000 vehicle.  WTF.  Can we all just go to time out?

Signs that people see are meaningless. Traditionally, this is particularly true for president. I recall as a kid, most of the signs I'd see were for mayor or state legislative seats, because the candidates literally went door-to-door to ask people to do it. I don't recall yard signs for Reagan, Clinton, etc. Now, in the era of the internet, I'm seeing dozens of static Biden signs on my bike rides (through liberal Minneapolis and St. Paul). Well, I know Biden's going to do well there...that doesn't mean anything state/nationwide. Similarly, on longer trips, it's almost all Trump along the highways.  That's a change in the times. We're just more into screaming about Prez nowadays as we get more divided.

But anyone who thinks the signs they see, matter a lick, doesn't really understand what anecdotal evidence is (or, rather, isn't).

I've never had a bumper sticker,* t-shirt, hat, or even sign. I'd have to really, really believe in someone to do that and that's not how I vote. And with Trump fans acting like rabid college football fans, it turns me off to the idea even more. I think the rabid fandom is symptomatic of cheering for the "win" with little interest in what the win actually means for the fan or the fan's community/country.

As for this Fox story about billboards, it strikes me as grasping at straws and maybe even a bit of a feed into the "it must have been fraud" BS.

*I just bought a 2019 car a year ago. Prior to that I'd had a 2004 car I bought new. I'm glad I wasn't driving around with a Kerry bumper sticker for 15 years!

HughFreakingDillon

OnWis97 said:

MayDay10 said:

mrussel1 said:

bootleg said:

dignin said:

Jimmy Failla: Trump is on pace to win 2020 election in a 'lawn-slide' -- here's why I say that

Trucker polls show Trump enjoying a massive edge in signage

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-win-2020-lawn-slide-jimmy-failla

Trumpeters tend to be pretty loud about it so that’s one reason you’ll see more signs.  The other reason is Biden supporters likely don’t want to paint a big target on their house since Trump is also the party of more crazy nut jobs.

It's also because many Democrats have a little class and aren't interested in being in a cult.  The argument is the last vestige of desperation,  when you have nothing else. 

Yeah.  I liked Obama, kind of.  I would never wear an Obama hat with some slogan, or a shirt, or anything else.  I wouldnt even put a partisan sticker on my vehicle.  Its silly, and I have my own identity without trying to latch on some political party.  All those sill chotchky items like commemorative coins, mugs, etc. My god.  get a life.  Or the pickup trucks with the penis-compensating American and Trump flags on the back.  Whoa.  Cool!

In the past few weeks, I have seen several cars with a TRUMP 2020 NO MORE BULLSHIT bumper sticker.  This is with my kids in the car.  This is our president.  These are (I would assume) adults who buy this sticker and attach it to the paint of their $30,000 vehicle.  WTF.  Can we all just go to time out?

Signs that people see are meaningless. Traditionally, this is particularly true for president. I recall as a kid, most of the signs I'd see were for mayor or state legislative seats, because the candidates literally went door-to-door to ask people to do it. I don't recall yard signs for Reagan, Clinton, etc. Now, in the era of the internet, I'm seeing dozens of static Biden signs on my bike rides (through liberal Minneapolis and St. Paul). Well, I know Biden's going to do well there...that doesn't mean anything state/nationwide. Similarly, on longer trips, it's almost all Trump along the highways.  That's a change in the times. We're just more into screaming about Prez nowadays as we get more divided.

But anyone who thinks the signs they see, matter a lick, doesn't really understand what anecdotal evidence is (or, rather, isn't).

I've never had a bumper sticker,* t-shirt, hat, or even sign. I'd have to really, really believe in someone to do that and that's not how I vote. And with Trump fans acting like rabid college football fans, it turns me off to the idea even more. I think the rabid fandom is symptomatic of cheering for the "win" with little interest in what the win actually means for the fan or the fan's community/country.

As for this Fox story about billboards, it strikes me as grasping at straws and maybe even a bit of a feed into the "it must have been fraud" BS.

*I just bought a 2019 car a year ago. Prior to that I'd had a 2004 car I bought new. I'm glad I wasn't driving around with a Kerry bumper sticker for 15 years!

BINGO

Gern Blansten

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1313903174886076417

darwinstheory

Gern Blansten said:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1313903174886076417

Interesting to see from Iowa. 538 now just moved to 16/84. It's moved a lot since the debates.

mrussel1

darwinstheory said:

Gern Blansten said:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1313903174886076417

Interesting to see from Iowa. 538 now just moved to 16/84. It's moved a lot since the debates.

Someone needs to start a website to "unskew" the polls like on 2012.

Lerxst1992

darwinstheory said:

Gern Blansten said:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1313903174886076417

Interesting to see from Iowa. 538 now just moved to 16/84. It's moved a lot since the debates.

Anyone want to take some action on the “over” with those quinnipiac polls? 

darwinstheory

mrussel1 said:

darwinstheory said:

Gern Blansten said:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1313903174886076417

Interesting to see from Iowa. 538 now just moved to 16/84. It's moved a lot since the debates.

Someone needs to start a website to "unskew" the polls like on 2012.

I should clarify that the 16/84 was the overall election, not the Iowa numbers.

What was interesting about Iowa was from Gern's post from the Quinnipiac polls.

The Juggler

Guys, I don't think these polls are picking up shy Trump voters

Gern Blansten

darwinstheory said:

mrussel1 said:

darwinstheory said:

Gern Blansten said:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1313903174886076417

Interesting to see from Iowa. 538 now just moved to 16/84. It's moved a lot since the debates.

Someone needs to start a website to "unskew" the polls like on 2012.

I should clarify that the 16/84 was the overall election, not the Iowa numbers.

What was interesting about Iowa was from Gern's post from the Quinnipiac polls.

Quinnipiac is a B+ poll so IA should have some movement toward Biden I would think

MayDay10

that debate was a damn disaster for trump, huh

mrussel1

MayDay10 said:

that debate was a damn disaster for trump, huh

Yes but I think the COVID really crystallized the recklessness of Trump. You can see how few undecided voters are left now. 

mrussel1

Taxes +debate + plague.   Has any candidate ever had a worse week?