Nate Silver 538

WhatYouTaughtMe

AZ is not flipping. I don't care what the polls say. I live in the biggest metro area in the state. It's openly Trump everywhere. If I mentioned Biden anywhere I go, I'd be laughed out of the room. Don't listen to the polls, don't assume anything is in the bag. It really feels like nothing was learned from 2016. People need to get out and vote. Turnout is the only way Biden wins this election. I believe what I see with my own eyes, and I know two people who are voting Biden. Two. Yeah it's a small sample size, but two. That's it. I really hope after the election that someone can quote this and make me eat crow. I'd gladly eat a dozen of them if it means that Mango Mussolini gets sent packing. I'm not hopeful.

mrussel1

WhatYouTaughtMe said:

AZ is not flipping. I don't care what the polls say. I live in the biggest metro area in the state. It's openly Trump everywhere. If I mentioned Biden anywhere I go, I'd be laughed out of the room. Don't listen to the polls, don't assume anything is in the bag. It really feels like nothing was learned from 2016. People need to get out and vote. Turnout is the only way Biden wins this election. I believe what I see with my own eyes, and I know two people who are voting Biden. Two. Yeah it's a small sample size, but two. That's it. I really hope after the election that someone can quote this and make me eat crow. I'd gladly eat a dozen of them if it means that Mango Mussolini gets sent packing. I'm not hopeful.

Why should they vote if Arizona isn't flipping?

Do you think Kelly is going to lose as well, or do you think ticket splitting is happening?

WhatYouTaughtMe

mrussel1 said:

WhatYouTaughtMe said:

AZ is not flipping. I don't care what the polls say. I live in the biggest metro area in the state. It's openly Trump everywhere. If I mentioned Biden anywhere I go, I'd be laughed out of the room. Don't listen to the polls, don't assume anything is in the bag. It really feels like nothing was learned from 2016. People need to get out and vote. Turnout is the only way Biden wins this election. I believe what I see with my own eyes, and I know two people who are voting Biden. Two. Yeah it's a small sample size, but two. That's it. I really hope after the election that someone can quote this and make me eat crow. I'd gladly eat a dozen of them if it means that Mango Mussolini gets sent packing. I'm not hopeful.

Why should they vote if Arizona isn't flipping?

Do you think Kelly is going to lose as well, or do you think ticket splitting is happening?

I'm talking on the national level. Don't let the states Biden should win, slip away by thinking he has it in the bag. I have very limited knowledge of polling and I've never answered a question from anyone asking me who I'm voting for. I can only go by what I see with my own eyes. Between my two jobs I probably come in contact with 50-100 people a day that I've never met before. All I see are maga hats, trump flags and bumper stickers. It's very openly Trump here. I remember having this same conversation in 2016 with a friend. I hope I'm wrong. I really do. 

WhatYouTaughtMe

And yes, I think Kelly will lose. 

WhatYouTaughtMe

I understand he's thumping her in the polls, but I just don't believe anything I read or see on tv these days. I just know that I know two people. Again, two. That I could see voting for him as well. It just doesn't make any sense to me. 

WhatYouTaughtMe

Anyway. This thread is about polling data. Enough hijacking for me. I want to believe. I really do, but I remember in the beginning, dismissing outright anyone who thought Trump had a chance in 2016. It's a different world. I just don't think polls mean what they used to. 

mrussel1

WhatYouTaughtMe said:

Anyway. This thread is about polling data. Enough hijacking for me. I want to believe. I really do, but I remember in the beginning, dismissing outright anyone who thought Trump had a chance in 2016. It's a different world. I just don't think polls mean what they used to. 

McSally already lost to an openly gay woman statewide.  I don't know how she beats an astronaut. 

WhatYouTaughtMe

mrussel1 said:

WhatYouTaughtMe said:

Anyway. This thread is about polling data. Enough hijacking for me. I want to believe. I really do, but I remember in the beginning, dismissing outright anyone who thought Trump had a chance in 2016. It's a different world. I just don't think polls mean what they used to. 

McSally already lost to an openly gay woman statewide.  I don't know how she beats an astronaut. 

Fair enough. I just don't see how any Trump supporter will vote democrat. Can you at least understand my confusion? I'm only going with what I see with my own eyes. I'm far from a political expert. None of this makes any fucking sense to me. I guess maybe I can be hopeful all the Biden supporters out here are keeping their mouths shut? I'm just incredibly saddened by what I see everyday. You can't even have an objective conversation with most trump supporters out here. Again, I really hope I'm wrong and will gladly take any amount of ridicule for these thoughts. If it means Trump loses. It will also be nice if recreational weed passes. 

mrussel1

WhatYouTaughtMe said:

mrussel1 said:

WhatYouTaughtMe said:

Anyway. This thread is about polling data. Enough hijacking for me. I want to believe. I really do, but I remember in the beginning, dismissing outright anyone who thought Trump had a chance in 2016. It's a different world. I just don't think polls mean what they used to. 

McSally already lost to an openly gay woman statewide.  I don't know how she beats an astronaut. 

Fair enough. I just don't see how any Trump supporter will vote democrat. Can you at least understand my confusion? I'm only going with what I see with my own eyes. I'm far from a political expert. None of this makes any fucking sense to me. I guess maybe I can be hopeful all the Biden supporters out here are keeping their mouths shut? I'm just incredibly saddened by what I see everyday. You can't even have an objective conversation with most trump supporters out here. Again, I really hope I'm wrong and will gladly take any amount of ridicule for these thoughts. If it means Trump loses. It will also be nice if recreational weed passes. 

Do you live in the Scottsdale area?  I know a lot of people closer to the city, Chandler, etc, and there are plenty of D's there..  Flagstaff is D, so is Tucson if I'm not mistaken.  Whoever wins Maricopa, wins AZ.  

WhatYouTaughtMe

mrussel1 said:

WhatYouTaughtMe said:

mrussel1 said:

WhatYouTaughtMe said:

Anyway. This thread is about polling data. Enough hijacking for me. I want to believe. I really do, but I remember in the beginning, dismissing outright anyone who thought Trump had a chance in 2016. It's a different world. I just don't think polls mean what they used to. 

McSally already lost to an openly gay woman statewide.  I don't know how she beats an astronaut. 

Fair enough. I just don't see how any Trump supporter will vote democrat. Can you at least understand my confusion? I'm only going with what I see with my own eyes. I'm far from a political expert. None of this makes any fucking sense to me. I guess maybe I can be hopeful all the Biden supporters out here are keeping their mouths shut? I'm just incredibly saddened by what I see everyday. You can't even have an objective conversation with most trump supporters out here. Again, I really hope I'm wrong and will gladly take any amount of ridicule for these thoughts. If it means Trump loses. It will also be nice if recreational weed passes. 

Do you live in the Scottsdale area?  I know a lot of people closer to the city, Chandler, etc, and there are plenty of D's there..  Flagstaff is D, so is Tucson if I'm not mistaken.  Whoever wins Maricopa, wins AZ.  

Glendale/Peoria area. I want to believe. I really do. 

WhatYouTaughtMe

And for what it's worth, Sinema is bisexual. I see your point, but semantics and what not. 

Jearlpam0925

Isn't that like 45 minutes from the Phoenix metro area? All metros in AZ are increasing/expanding and the demos are tilting blue. Again, I'd be slightly surprised if it doesn't go blue, but in another ten years it should be expected.

WhatYouTaughtMe

Jearlpam0925 said:

Isn't that like 45 minutes from the Phoenix metro area? All metros in AZ are increasing/expanding and the demos are tilting blue. Again, I'd be slightly surprised if it doesn't go blue, but in another ten years it should be expected.

Phoenix metro area is almost 15000 square miles that encompasses all of the surrounding "towns". I technically live in Phoenix city limits. 20 minutes from downtown with traffic. It's all connected. You wouldn't know you went from one place to the next if there weren't signs. I also work all over the valley. Maricopa county has gone red in every presidential election since 1948 I think. I will be incredibly surprised if it goes blue. Again, based on what I'm seeing in my everyday life and the people I talk to. It's actually sad. Feels like a cult. 

mrussel1

WhatYouTaughtMe said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Isn't that like 45 minutes from the Phoenix metro area? All metros in AZ are increasing/expanding and the demos are tilting blue. Again, I'd be slightly surprised if it doesn't go blue, but in another ten years it should be expected.

Phoenix metro area is almost 15000 square miles that encompasses all of the surrounding "towns". I technically live in Phoenix city limits. 20 minutes from downtown with traffic. It's all connected. You wouldn't know you went from one place to the next if there weren't signs. I also work all over the valley. Maricopa county has gone red in every presidential election since 1948 I think. I will be incredibly surprised if it goes blue. Again, based on what I'm seeing in my everyday life and the people I talk to. It's actually sad. Feels like a cult. 

Maricopa did go blue for Sinema though,  if I'm not mistaken.  Winning the county wins the state 

WhatYouTaughtMe

mrussel1 said:

WhatYouTaughtMe said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Isn't that like 45 minutes from the Phoenix metro area? All metros in AZ are increasing/expanding and the demos are tilting blue. Again, I'd be slightly surprised if it doesn't go blue, but in another ten years it should be expected.

Phoenix metro area is almost 15000 square miles that encompasses all of the surrounding "towns". I technically live in Phoenix city limits. 20 minutes from downtown with traffic. It's all connected. You wouldn't know you went from one place to the next if there weren't signs. I also work all over the valley. Maricopa county has gone red in every presidential election since 1948 I think. I will be incredibly surprised if it goes blue. Again, based on what I'm seeing in my everyday life and the people I talk to. It's actually sad. Feels like a cult. 

Maricopa did go blue for Sinema though,  if I'm not mistaken.  Winning the county wins the state 

Almost certainly. Although Clinton did win the state without it in 1996. So maybe I should be hopeful. Sinema's senate campaign was a non presidential year. Do you know any democrats voting for Trump? That's the part I can't wrap my head around. I don't see the support for Biden out here, but Kelly is stomping McNally. This shit confuses me. I'm just talking in my everyday life. Things that are tangible in my life lead me to believe Trump will win AZ. Maybe they are just more outspoken? I find Trump supporters are like vegans, in the sense they can't wait to tell you about it without any reason. 

mrussel1

WhatYouTaughtMe said:

mrussel1 said:

WhatYouTaughtMe said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Isn't that like 45 minutes from the Phoenix metro area? All metros in AZ are increasing/expanding and the demos are tilting blue. Again, I'd be slightly surprised if it doesn't go blue, but in another ten years it should be expected.

Phoenix metro area is almost 15000 square miles that encompasses all of the surrounding "towns". I technically live in Phoenix city limits. 20 minutes from downtown with traffic. It's all connected. You wouldn't know you went from one place to the next if there weren't signs. I also work all over the valley. Maricopa county has gone red in every presidential election since 1948 I think. I will be incredibly surprised if it goes blue. Again, based on what I'm seeing in my everyday life and the people I talk to. It's actually sad. Feels like a cult. 

Maricopa did go blue for Sinema though,  if I'm not mistaken.  Winning the county wins the state 

Almost certainly. Although Clinton did win the state without it in 1996. So maybe I should be hopeful. Sinema's senate campaign was a non presidential year. Do you know any democrats voting for Trump? That's the part I can't wrap my head around. I don't see the support for Biden out here, but Kelly is stomping McNally. This shit confuses me. I'm just talking in my everyday life. Things that are tangible in my life lead me to believe Trump will win AZ. Maybe they are just more outspoken? I find Trump supporters are like vegans, in the sense they can't wait to tell you about it without any reason. 

Yeah I think you hit it on the head.  Trump has his core be and they are loud as hell.  Democrats and moderates are simply not the same kind of people.  We had a lot of discussion here about the alleged shy Trump ssupporters, but many of us don't think they exist.  Now there could still be issues with demographic adjustments to the polls.  We shall see.  But with the size lead Biden has,  that would have to be a massive error to flip the script 

mrussel1

WhatYouTaughtMe said:

mrussel1 said:

WhatYouTaughtMe said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Isn't that like 45 minutes from the Phoenix metro area? All metros in AZ are increasing/expanding and the demos are tilting blue. Again, I'd be slightly surprised if it doesn't go blue, but in another ten years it should be expected.

Phoenix metro area is almost 15000 square miles that encompasses all of the surrounding "towns". I technically live in Phoenix city limits. 20 minutes from downtown with traffic. It's all connected. You wouldn't know you went from one place to the next if there weren't signs. I also work all over the valley. Maricopa county has gone red in every presidential election since 1948 I think. I will be incredibly surprised if it goes blue. Again, based on what I'm seeing in my everyday life and the people I talk to. It's actually sad. Feels like a cult. 

Maricopa did go blue for Sinema though,  if I'm not mistaken.  Winning the county wins the state 

Almost certainly. Although Clinton did win the state without it in 1996. So maybe I should be hopeful. Sinema's senate campaign was a non presidential year. Do you know any democrats voting for Trump? That's the part I can't wrap my head around. I don't see the support for Biden out here, but Kelly is stomping McNally. This shit confuses me. I'm just talking in my everyday life. Things that are tangible in my life lead me to believe Trump will win AZ. Maybe they are just more outspoken? I find Trump supporters are like vegans, in the sense they can't wait to tell you about it without any reason. 

A timely article that may give you hope..  https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/11/republicans-democrats-arizona-blue-428535

Lerxst1992

WhatYouTaughtMe said:

mrussel1 said:

WhatYouTaughtMe said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Isn't that like 45 minutes from the Phoenix metro area? All metros in AZ are increasing/expanding and the demos are tilting blue. Again, I'd be slightly surprised if it doesn't go blue, but in another ten years it should be expected.

Phoenix metro area is almost 15000 square miles that encompasses all of the surrounding "towns". I technically live in Phoenix city limits. 20 minutes from downtown with traffic. It's all connected. You wouldn't know you went from one place to the next if there weren't signs. I also work all over the valley. Maricopa county has gone red in every presidential election since 1948 I think. I will be incredibly surprised if it goes blue. Again, based on what I'm seeing in my everyday life and the people I talk to. It's actually sad. Feels like a cult. 

Maricopa did go blue for Sinema though,  if I'm not mistaken.  Winning the county wins the state 

Almost certainly. Although Clinton did win the state without it in 1996. So maybe I should be hopeful. Sinema's senate campaign was a non presidential year. Do you know any democrats voting for Trump? That's the part I can't wrap my head around. I don't see the support for Biden out here, but Kelly is stomping McNally. This shit confuses me. I'm just talking in my everyday life. Things that are tangible in my life lead me to believe Trump will win AZ. Maybe they are just more outspoken? I find Trump supporters are like vegans, in the sense they can't wait to tell you about it without any reason. 

It’s interesting hearing your observations from AZ, thanks for sharing. I’ve been a steady voice against the polling data on this thread. I do think Biden is ahead, but 538 predicting an 85% chance Biden wins IMO is insane. 

2 points about AZ. If Biden wins your state, it will be a comfortable win for him nationwide and we will not have to sweat out the court and constitutional challenges from trump. The democrats will have turned a solid red state into a solidly leaning blue state. Trump will need to walk away and we will be done with him, for at least 4 years.

Second, about signs and flags, trump promotes it and also promotes us against them mentality. He is nasty towards democrats. He says the only way democrats win is if we cheat. He generates hatred from his supporters.

So do democrats want their homes and cars exposed to these insane, rabid votes? I like many I know, want badly for  trump to lose, and are willing to vote in person to vote him out, but I do not want to expose my personal property to a rabid and insane trump fan base. I do not want a target on my property, especially one painted by the President of the United States. That’s a profound statement, and believe explains the lack of Biden signs.



https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/10/joe-biden-and-kamala-harris-hay-bale-display-set-fire/5954953002/

mrussel1

Lerxst1992 said:

WhatYouTaughtMe said:

mrussel1 said:

WhatYouTaughtMe said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Isn't that like 45 minutes from the Phoenix metro area? All metros in AZ are increasing/expanding and the demos are tilting blue. Again, I'd be slightly surprised if it doesn't go blue, but in another ten years it should be expected.

Phoenix metro area is almost 15000 square miles that encompasses all of the surrounding "towns". I technically live in Phoenix city limits. 20 minutes from downtown with traffic. It's all connected. You wouldn't know you went from one place to the next if there weren't signs. I also work all over the valley. Maricopa county has gone red in every presidential election since 1948 I think. I will be incredibly surprised if it goes blue. Again, based on what I'm seeing in my everyday life and the people I talk to. It's actually sad. Feels like a cult. 

Maricopa did go blue for Sinema though,  if I'm not mistaken.  Winning the county wins the state 

Almost certainly. Although Clinton did win the state without it in 1996. So maybe I should be hopeful. Sinema's senate campaign was a non presidential year. Do you know any democrats voting for Trump? That's the part I can't wrap my head around. I don't see the support for Biden out here, but Kelly is stomping McNally. This shit confuses me. I'm just talking in my everyday life. Things that are tangible in my life lead me to believe Trump will win AZ. Maybe they are just more outspoken? I find Trump supporters are like vegans, in the sense they can't wait to tell you about it without any reason. 

It’s interesting hearing your observations from AZ, thanks for sharing. I’ve been a steady voice against the polling data on this thread. I do think Biden is ahead, but 538 predicting an 85% chance Biden wins IMO is insane. 

2 points about AZ. If Biden wins your state, it will be a comfortable win for him nationwide and we will not have to sweat out the court and constitutional challenges from trump. The democrats will have turned a solid red state into a solidly leaning blue state. Trump will need to walk away and we will be done with him, for at least 4 years.

Second, about signs and flags, trump promotes it and also promotes us against them mentality. He is nasty towards democrats. He says the only way democrats win is if we cheat. He generates hatred from his supporters.

So do democrats want their homes and cars exposed to these insane, rabid votes? I like many I know, want badly for  trump to lose, and are willing to vote in person to vote him out, but I do not want to expose my personal property to a rabid and insane trump fan base. I do not want a target on my property, especially one painted by the President of the United States. That’s a profound statement, and believe explains the lack of Biden signs.



https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/10/joe-biden-and-kamala-harris-hay-bale-display-set-fire/5954953002/

I saw something on 538 that if Biden wins PA, he has a 96% chance to win.  For Trump, it’s 85%.  So everything is hinging there and Biden’s consistent lead in PA leads to the overall number you referenced.

Gern Blansten

Interesting that PA and WI have switched on 538s winding path chart.  PA has been his tipping point state for weeks and now it is WI