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Nate Silver 538

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  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 18,676
    OnWis97 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    OnWis97 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    I think everyone should be more concerned with him winning Florida. There's more of a chance of FLA than TX/OH/GA and I still don't feel good about Florida.
    Florida is too fucked up to trust. 
    Still certainly closer than GA/TX/OH though! Arizona is ahead of those, too, which I need to see to believe.
    I believe in Arizona.  Sinema winning in 18 tells me it really is shifting. 
    Did she beat McSally, though?  The Arizona GOP has to stop trotting her out there.  She must have given some serious money to someone. Or she has compromising photos.  She's going to lose her gifted seat. I hope that translates to the big election...we'll see.
    Yes it was McSally. Now she's up against an astronaut. That's no easier. 
    It looks like McSally's going to get crushed. Hopefully that reflects on how they vote in other races.
    Don't forget about the shy McSally voter.  That's good for 10 points. 
  • HughFreakingDillonHughFreakingDillon I'm from Winnipeg, you idiot! (Chris Jericho)Posts: 22,833
    mrussel1 said:
    OnWis97 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    OnWis97 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    I think everyone should be more concerned with him winning Florida. There's more of a chance of FLA than TX/OH/GA and I still don't feel good about Florida.
    Florida is too fucked up to trust. 
    Still certainly closer than GA/TX/OH though! Arizona is ahead of those, too, which I need to see to believe.
    I believe in Arizona.  Sinema winning in 18 tells me it really is shifting. 
    Did she beat McSally, though?  The Arizona GOP has to stop trotting her out there.  She must have given some serious money to someone. Or she has compromising photos.  She's going to lose her gifted seat. I hope that translates to the big election...we'll see.
    Yes it was McSally. Now she's up against an astronaut. That's no easier. 
    It looks like McSally's going to get crushed. Hopefully that reflects on how they vote in other races.
    Don't forget about the shy McSally voter.  That's good for 10 points. 
    lol
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  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,696
    OnWis97 said:
    GA still (barely) Biden and OH back to RED. No bueno amigos
    Biden doesn't need OH....it would be nice though
    I want Joe to get every bit he can get. Ideally, a thorough ass kicking would help to silence, or at least quiet the cult.

    If Biden wins with a cushion of a few states, it would be great. If he wins but one close state is difference-making, Barr and the high court overturn that shit.  I really think he needs a suprise like Ohio or Texas.
    But Biden has Nancy and electoral votes are counted in her House and she sets the rules if no one gets to 270. Plenty of swing state democrat governors certifying results can’t hurt either.
  • OnWis97OnWis97 St. Paul, MNPosts: 2,930
    It will be interesting to see how all this Hunter Biden talk impacts the polls over the next few days. I don’t know whether it’s legit but people buy it.
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  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,696
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    I think everyone should be more concerned with him winning Florida. There's more of a chance of FLA than TX/OH/GA and I still don't feel good about Florida.
    Florida is too fucked up to trust. 
    Still certainly closer than GA/TX/OH though! Arizona is ahead of those, too, which I need to see to believe.
    I believe in Arizona.  Sinema winning in 18 tells me it really is shifting. 


    AZ and GA have a better chance than FL. 200,000 more brand new republicans in FL is concerning, as is every statewide vote result since 2012. If I were Biden, I’d have a backup plan to FL and also NC, but that plan must include PA. Gulp.
  • static111static111 Posts: 1,366
    edited October 17
    OnWis97 said:
    It will be interesting to see how all this Hunter Biden talk impacts the polls over the next few days. I don’t know whether it’s legit but people buy it.
    I’m currently working for a defense contractor and they deal with some natsec stuff from time to time...EVERYONE is a trump supporter and buys everything about hunter and the laptops and how Giuliani is the greatest lawyer of all time and that Biden is the head of a crime family...it’s very disheartening. These people say the word Democrat as if it hurts their mouths and brings them pain such as if to be a Democrat is not just to have differences ideologically, but to be the enemy.


     I have a good line on getting some inspection work at a semi conductor plant...I need out of this business and the yayhoos that abound
    Post edited by static111 on
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South PhillyPosts: 12,468
    Haha, check out the latest 538 pod. Nate's kinda losing his shit. It's funny.
  • dignindignin Posts: 8,616
    Haha, check out the latest 538 pod. Nate's kinda losing his shit. It's funny.
    Can you give a quick synopsis? Thanks.
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South PhillyPosts: 12,468
    dignin said:
    Haha, check out the latest 538 pod. Nate's kinda losing his shit. It's funny.
    Can you give a quick synopsis? Thanks.
    It's in the first 10 minutes-ish, just rehashing 2016 in comparison to 2020 and how these models/forecasts work. Sounds like the Twitter trolls are sometimes living rent free in his head.


  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,696
    Trump down  to 12%
  • dignindignin Posts: 8,616
    dignin said:
    Haha, check out the latest 538 pod. Nate's kinda losing his shit. It's funny.
    Can you give a quick synopsis? Thanks.
    It's in the first 10 minutes-ish, just rehashing 2016 in comparison to 2020 and how these models/forecasts work. Sounds like the Twitter trolls are sometimes living rent free in his head.


    Thanks for the link.
  • dignindignin Posts: 8,616

    8 Tips To Stay Sane In The Final 15 Days Of The Campaign


    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/8-tips-to-stay-sane-in-the-final-15-days-of-the-campaign/

    This is a good read.

  • dignindignin Posts: 8,616
    538 has moved the Senate from slight favourites to favoured to win.
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,696
    dignin said:

    8 Tips To Stay Sane In The Final 15 Days Of The Campaign


    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/8-tips-to-stay-sane-in-the-final-15-days-of-the-campaign/

    This is a good read.



    Good article. I agree with “ Biden doesn’t have it in the bag” but I’d push back on the polling isn’t broken and this is not the same as 2016.

    RCP swing state aggregates are inching even closer, and FL NC AZ PA are within margin of error. Trump wins if he takes those states, and all 4 have a large NCW population which pollsters could be missing

    “Trump is just a polling error of winning” just like last time, except it’s relevant for swing states this time as opposed to the national average. Yet 538 still has trump at 12%, which seems absurd to me.
  • Ledbetterman10Ledbetterman10 Posts: 14,066
    dignin said:

    8 Tips To Stay Sane In The Final 15 Days Of The Campaign


    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/8-tips-to-stay-sane-in-the-final-15-days-of-the-campaign/

    This is a good read.



    Good article. I agree with “ Biden doesn’t have it in the bag” but I’d push back on the polling isn’t broken and this is not the same as 2016.

    RCP swing state aggregates are inching even closer, and FL NC AZ PA are within margin of error. Trump wins if he takes those states, and all 4 have a large NCW population which pollsters could be missing

    “Trump is just a polling error of winning” just like last time, except it’s relevant for swing states this time as opposed to the national average. Yet 538 still has trump at 12%, which seems absurd to me.
    What's an NCW population?
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  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,696
    dignin said:

    8 Tips To Stay Sane In The Final 15 Days Of The Campaign


    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/8-tips-to-stay-sane-in-the-final-15-days-of-the-campaign/

    This is a good read.



    Good article. I agree with “ Biden doesn’t have it in the bag” but I’d push back on the polling isn’t broken and this is not the same as 2016.

    RCP swing state aggregates are inching even closer, and FL NC AZ PA are within margin of error. Trump wins if he takes those states, and all 4 have a large NCW population which pollsters could be missing

    “Trump is just a polling error of winning” just like last time, except it’s relevant for swing states this time as opposed to the national average. Yet 538 still has trump at 12%, which seems absurd to me.
    What's an NCW population?

    Non college whites. That’s the demo that was under polled last time.
  • Ledbetterman10Ledbetterman10 Posts: 14,066
    dignin said:

    8 Tips To Stay Sane In The Final 15 Days Of The Campaign


    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/8-tips-to-stay-sane-in-the-final-15-days-of-the-campaign/

    This is a good read.



    Good article. I agree with “ Biden doesn’t have it in the bag” but I’d push back on the polling isn’t broken and this is not the same as 2016.

    RCP swing state aggregates are inching even closer, and FL NC AZ PA are within margin of error. Trump wins if he takes those states, and all 4 have a large NCW population which pollsters could be missing

    “Trump is just a polling error of winning” just like last time, except it’s relevant for swing states this time as opposed to the national average. Yet 538 still has trump at 12%, which seems absurd to me.
    What's an NCW population?
    Non college whites. That’s the demo that was under polled last time.
    I got ya. 
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  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,797
    This Hunter Biden shit isn't going anywhere.  This has Russia written all over it.  

    It is amazing though how the tRumpsters are picking up on it but ignoring tRump's association with Epstein....again
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  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 25,460
    edited October 19
    This Hunter Biden shit isn't going anywhere.  This has Russia written all over it.  

    It is amazing though how the tRumpsters are picking up on it but ignoring tRump's association with Epstein....again
    That’s the plan and SOP. It’ll be forgotten by all those screaming about it on November 4th. Ruddy Ghouliani should be arrested for acting as a hostile foreign agent.
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  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South PhillyPosts: 12,468
    dignin said:

    8 Tips To Stay Sane In The Final 15 Days Of The Campaign


    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/8-tips-to-stay-sane-in-the-final-15-days-of-the-campaign/

    This is a good read.



    Good article. I agree with “ Biden doesn’t have it in the bag” but I’d push back on the polling isn’t broken and this is not the same as 2016.

    RCP swing state aggregates are inching even closer, and FL NC AZ PA are within margin of error. Trump wins if he takes those states, and all 4 have a large NCW population which pollsters could be missing

    “Trump is just a polling error of winning” just like last time, except it’s relevant for swing states this time as opposed to the national average. Yet 538 still has trump at 12%, which seems absurd to me.
    But it's not that absurd. If Biden's national polling is 10+ then that would of course drive his chances higher. And of course Biden doesn't have "it in the bag", but to think he's not a heavy favorite overall would be to ignore the obvious.
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,003
    dignin said:

    8 Tips To Stay Sane In The Final 15 Days Of The Campaign


    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/8-tips-to-stay-sane-in-the-final-15-days-of-the-campaign/

    This is a good read.



    Good article. I agree with “ Biden doesn’t have it in the bag” but I’d push back on the polling isn’t broken and this is not the same as 2016.

    RCP swing state aggregates are inching even closer, and FL NC AZ PA are within margin of error. Trump wins if he takes those states, and all 4 have a large NCW population which pollsters could be missing

    “Trump is just a polling error of winning” just like last time, except it’s relevant for swing states this time as opposed to the national average. Yet 538 still has trump at 12%, which seems absurd to me.
    But it's not that absurd. If Biden's national polling is 10+ then that would of course drive his chances higher. And of course Biden doesn't have "it in the bag", but to think he's not a heavy favorite overall would be to ignore the obvious.
    4 years ago he had like a 3 in 10 chance of winning and got lucky. This time around he has literally been trailing Biden for 3 years in all polling. So 1 in 10 definitely sounds about right to me. 
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  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South PhillyPosts: 12,468
    dignin said:

    8 Tips To Stay Sane In The Final 15 Days Of The Campaign


    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/8-tips-to-stay-sane-in-the-final-15-days-of-the-campaign/

    This is a good read.



    Good article. I agree with “ Biden doesn’t have it in the bag” but I’d push back on the polling isn’t broken and this is not the same as 2016.

    RCP swing state aggregates are inching even closer, and FL NC AZ PA are within margin of error. Trump wins if he takes those states, and all 4 have a large NCW population which pollsters could be missing

    “Trump is just a polling error of winning” just like last time, except it’s relevant for swing states this time as opposed to the national average. Yet 538 still has trump at 12%, which seems absurd to me.
    But it's not that absurd. If Biden's national polling is 10+ then that would of course drive his chances higher. And of course Biden doesn't have "it in the bag", but to think he's not a heavy favorite overall would be to ignore the obvious.
    4 years ago he had like a 3 in 10 chance of winning and got lucky. This time around he has literally been trailing Biden for 3 years in all polling. So 1 in 10 definitely sounds about right to me. 
    Correct. Which, of course, is not nothing.

    I tend to have to restrain myself in these convos because I really just don't want to come off as an asshole when it comes to statistics and forecasts.
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,696
    dignin said:

    8 Tips To Stay Sane In The Final 15 Days Of The Campaign


    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/8-tips-to-stay-sane-in-the-final-15-days-of-the-campaign/

    This is a good read.



    Good article. I agree with “ Biden doesn’t have it in the bag” but I’d push back on the polling isn’t broken and this is not the same as 2016.

    RCP swing state aggregates are inching even closer, and FL NC AZ PA are within margin of error. Trump wins if he takes those states, and all 4 have a large NCW population which pollsters could be missing

    “Trump is just a polling error of winning” just like last time, except it’s relevant for swing states this time as opposed to the national average. Yet 538 still has trump at 12%, which seems absurd to me.
    But it's not that absurd. If Biden's national polling is 10+ then that would of course drive his chances higher. And of course Biden doesn't have "it in the bag", but to think he's not a heavy favorite overall would be to ignore the obvious.
    4 years ago he had like a 3 in 10 chance of winning and got lucky. This time around he has literally been trailing Biden for 3 years in all polling. So 1 in 10 definitely sounds about right to me. 
    Correct. Which, of course, is not nothing.

    I tend to have to restrain myself in these convos because I really just don't want to come off as an asshole when it comes to statistics and forecasts.

    Except in stats you know the population.  If someone is calling 2016 luck they missed the lead story about that election.

    If you are predicting a roll of the dice, you know exactly how many combinations and probabilities.

    If you are predicting the super bowl winner, you know exactly how many teams are in the competition.
     
    But with trump there is a massive unknown that most polls, hundreds of them, got completely wrong - How many people in a specific demo will show up. NOT how they will vote, but should they even be included in the stat. And trumps base is the biggest demo by far, making a blanket polling error a distinct possibility, especially in swing states where his demo is largest. 

    Thats like calling dice and not knowing if they have six sides or 8. Or if there are 32 NFL teams or 42.

    Last time 57 million non college whites voted. If 57.3 million show up this time, polls could be completely  wrong. If 2% of trump supporters hate getting called for polls because the media s*cks,  and lie, polls are wrong. It’s not like trump tells them to hate the media and establishment? In a football game, the results are verifiable. What a trumpster tells a pollster? No dice.

    I am not saying that’s my prediction, just that 12% is absurd, considering HOW the 2016 victory occurred for him.

  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,696
    Here’s a simple way to pop 538s balloon.


    As has been pointing out here, the probability of winning the presidency should mirror the probability of winning the tipping point state.

    And Nate has that, PA is the tipping point state - PA and National are both 88% Biden wins.

    But according to aggregate polling, the national Biden lead is 10.7%, while PA it’s only 4.4. That’s very different polling, yet handicapped exactly the same by 538.

    Something  is not adding up with 538s math.
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South PhillyPosts: 12,468
    edited October 19
    538 isn't a poll, it's a forecast. It's not a number based on a betting market. I don't know what else to say - all of these things have been accounted for: you cannot rely on bad polling, or this mysterious demo of Trump voters, or something like unaffiliated voters. All of these have been accounted for, and which are absurd on their head.

    As been caveated many times - the only way Trump wins is through the EC, and it's with some kind of significant mishap - like votes go missing, there's a data breach, a huge sample size of ballots are rejected, etc etc. i.e. voter turnout is low.

    Currently, 538 has the national outcome at a 8.4% margin of victory for Biden and PA at 6.3%. This seems like a pretty conservative take.
  • MayDay10MayDay10 Posts: 10,464
    He has him at like 96% winning the national majority, not 88%
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South PhillyPosts: 12,468
    More interesting than their Presidential model is their Senate. If there's anything I'm surprised about is the fact that this model has ticked upward for Dems to "favored".
  • jerparker20jerparker20 St. Paul, MNPosts: 1,947
    Also Wall Street and the majority of the large banks modeling (JP Morgan, Chase, Goldman) are also predicting (and donating heavily to) Biden to win and the Senate to go Dem.
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South PhillyPosts: 12,468
    I was going to say - if you think this model is overly generous then you do not want to see The Economist's.
  • MayDay10MayDay10 Posts: 10,464
    edited October 19
    I look at it like this:

    Trump had a very motivated base who had extremely high turnout in 2016.  He won by the skin of his teeth in a couple states that clinched the electoral points system.  
    Meanwhile, his opponent was fairly complacent and disengaged.

    In 2020 he has the same base who is still highly motivated and will turn out.  

    He has not tapped into any sort of alternate voter bloc, and there is data to show that he has lost ground in a few voting blocs that supported him in 2016.  

    Meanwhile, his opponent is not really complacent anymore.  Not so much in favor of Biden, but in favor of getting Trump TFO.  


    I dont think the Trump voter who didnt care to show up to the polls in 2016 is a very large group.  For every true blood republican who turned 18 in the last 4 years, at least one elderly passed away, as the Republican and Christian bloc as a whole is aging out.



    Shenanigans, like making people in certain areas of counties and states wait 12 hours to vote and disenfranchising people could change things though
    Post edited by MayDay10 on
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