Nate Silver 538

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  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,594
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    The Juggler said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    I'll admit to being nervous.  I think the votes will be there to get rid of him but I grow more and more convinced that he will do something shady.

    I'm also nervous that COVID might not be as kind to Biden if he catches it.  Wouldn't it be awful if the asshole that downplays it recovers and the guy that set a good example has a worse result?


    Yeah I am a little worried that Biden's gonna test positive. They need an enormous wall separating those two next week
    trump would probably intentionally spit or projectile breathe on him in some way. wouldn't put it past him. 
    The motherfucker was likely positive the day of the last debate. 
    www.myspace.com
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,104
    The Juggler said:
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    The Juggler said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    I'll admit to being nervous.  I think the votes will be there to get rid of him but I grow more and more convinced that he will do something shady.

    I'm also nervous that COVID might not be as kind to Biden if he catches it.  Wouldn't it be awful if the asshole that downplays it recovers and the guy that set a good example has a worse result?


    Yeah I am a little worried that Biden's gonna test positive. They need an enormous wall separating those two next week
    trump would probably intentionally spit or projectile breathe on him in some way. wouldn't put it past him. 
    The motherfucker was likely positive the day of the last debate. 
    For sure, hence why Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat arrived too late to be tested pre-debate, breaking the rules because the rules don’t apply.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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  • HughFreakingDillon
    HughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 39,473
    Halifax2TheMax said:
    The Juggler said:
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    The Juggler said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    I'll admit to being nervous.  I think the votes will be there to get rid of him but I grow more and more convinced that he will do something shady.

    I'm also nervous that COVID might not be as kind to Biden if he catches it.  Wouldn't it be awful if the asshole that downplays it recovers and the guy that set a good example has a worse result?


    Yeah I am a little worried that Biden's gonna test positive. They need an enormous wall separating those two next week
    trump would probably intentionally spit or projectile breathe on him in some way. wouldn't put it past him. 
    The motherfucker was likely positive the day of the last debate. 
    For sure, hence why Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat arrived too late to be tested pre-debate, breaking the rules because the rules don’t apply.
    yeah, the president doesn't arrive late unless it's intentional. 
    By The Time They Figure Out What Went Wrong, We'll Be Sitting On A Beach, Earning Twenty Percent.




  • gimmesometruth27
    gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 24,050
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    Halifax2TheMax said:
    The Juggler said:
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    The Juggler said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    I'll admit to being nervous.  I think the votes will be there to get rid of him but I grow more and more convinced that he will do something shady.

    I'm also nervous that COVID might not be as kind to Biden if he catches it.  Wouldn't it be awful if the asshole that downplays it recovers and the guy that set a good example has a worse result?


    Yeah I am a little worried that Biden's gonna test positive. They need an enormous wall separating those two next week
    trump would probably intentionally spit or projectile breathe on him in some way. wouldn't put it past him. 
    The motherfucker was likely positive the day of the last debate. 
    For sure, hence why Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat arrived too late to be tested pre-debate, breaking the rules because the rules don’t apply.
    yeah, the president doesn't arrive late unless it's intentional. 
    to be fair, it takes 7 hours to get his hair and makeup done, so there's that.
    "You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry."  - Lincoln

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,851
    mrussel1 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    New FL poll in...Biden +6



    This is FL 4 years ago, interesting that all polling, and especially  U of North Fla, is almost 4 years to the day and about the same result 






    I don't see being able to compare the two.  Not changing your assumptions in the demo split after 16 and 18 would be criminal from a polling perspective. 

    It would be. It does look interesting in comparison. I haven’t seen Oct polling like biden is getting this week since the 80s.
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,594
    Lerxst1992 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    New FL poll in...Biden +6



    This is FL 4 years ago, interesting that all polling, and especially  U of North Fla, is almost 4 years to the day and about the same result 






    I don't see being able to compare the two.  Not changing your assumptions in the demo split after 16 and 18 would be criminal from a polling perspective. 

    It would be. It does look interesting in comparison. I haven’t seen Oct polling like biden is getting this week since the 80s.
    How old are you? lol
    www.myspace.com
  • dignin
    dignin Posts: 9,478

    Jimmy Failla: Trump is on pace to win 2020 election in a 'lawn-slide' -- here's why I say that



    Trucker polls show Trump enjoying a massive edge in signage


    https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-win-2020-lawn-slide-jimmy-failla









  • gimmesometruth27
    gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 24,050
    trump IS winning the sign battle in MO and southern IL.
    "You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry."  - Lincoln

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • darwinstheory
    darwinstheory LaPorte, IN Posts: 7,357
    538 has trump at 17, Biden at 82 and a tie at 1. This is a notable change in the last week. 
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • darwinstheory
    darwinstheory LaPorte, IN Posts: 7,357
    Just updated again at 17/83.
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,851
    The Juggler said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    New FL poll in...Biden +6



    This is FL 4 years ago, interesting that all polling, and especially  U of North Fla, is almost 4 years to the day and about the same result 






    I don't see being able to compare the two.  Not changing your assumptions in the demo split after 16 and 18 would be criminal from a polling perspective. 

    It would be. It does look interesting in comparison. I haven’t seen Oct polling like biden is getting this week since the 80s.
    How old are you? lol

    Younger than Ed, Matt and Jeff, older than Stone and Mike.
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,527
    So does someone go out of their way to pay for a PJ membership only to make 14 comments that could be better served in the Facebook comment section of a Breitbart article?

    Like bots can't sign up for a board membership right? So like this takes some serious work to want to troll a board where you pay right? On a semi-related note - I would pay a lot more for privileges here so that dips like this could not justify hanging around.

    On a thread-related note:

    My sources for following are: 1) 538 2) The Economist's model 3) PredictIt.org 4) 270towin.com - I think these 3, 4 sources will give you the greatest mosaic on getting a picture of what's going on.
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,104
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    So does someone go out of their way to pay for a PJ membership only to make 14 comments that could be better served in the Facebook comment section of a Breitbart article?

    Like bots can't sign up for a board membership right? So like this takes some serious work to want to troll a board where you pay right? On a semi-related note - I would pay a lot more for privileges here so that dips like this could not justify hanging around.

    On a thread-related note:

    My sources for following are: 1) 538 2) The Economist's model 3) PredictIt.org 4) 270towin.com - I think these 3, 4 sources will give you the greatest mosaic on getting a picture of what's going on.
    Does 10C accept Bitcoin? Its been established that putin on the ritz's troll farms paid for web domains and pay to play posting privileges with credit cards and Bitcoin and other cyber payment methods, including "straw purchasers." Not a bad ROI, all things considered.
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

    Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.

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  • HughFreakingDillon
    HughFreakingDillon Winnipeg Posts: 39,473
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    So does someone go out of their way to pay for a PJ membership only to make 14 comments that could be better served in the Facebook comment section of a Breitbart article?

    Like bots can't sign up for a board membership right? So like this takes some serious work to want to troll a board where you pay right? On a semi-related note - I would pay a lot more for privileges here so that dips like this could not justify hanging around.

    On a thread-related note:

    My sources for following are: 1) 538 2) The Economist's model 3) PredictIt.org 4) 270towin.com - I think these 3, 4 sources will give you the greatest mosaic on getting a picture of what's going on.
    i've actually seen people get banned after less than 10 posts, brand new member (not just new to posting). 
    By The Time They Figure Out What Went Wrong, We'll Be Sitting On A Beach, Earning Twenty Percent.




  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,594
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    So does someone go out of their way to pay for a PJ membership only to make 14 comments that could be better served in the Facebook comment section of a Breitbart article?

    Like bots can't sign up for a board membership right? So like this takes some serious work to want to troll a board where you pay right? On a semi-related note - I would pay a lot more for privileges here so that dips like this could not justify hanging around.

    On a thread-related note:

    My sources for following are: 1) 538 2) The Economist's model 3) PredictIt.org 4) 270towin.com - I think these 3, 4 sources will give you the greatest mosaic on getting a picture of what's going on.
    i've actually seen people get banned after less than 10 posts, brand new member (not just new to posting). 
    Who are we talking about here, gents?
    www.myspace.com
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    The Juggler said:
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    So does someone go out of their way to pay for a PJ membership only to make 14 comments that could be better served in the Facebook comment section of a Breitbart article?

    Like bots can't sign up for a board membership right? So like this takes some serious work to want to troll a board where you pay right? On a semi-related note - I would pay a lot more for privileges here so that dips like this could not justify hanging around.

    On a thread-related note:

    My sources for following are: 1) 538 2) The Economist's model 3) PredictIt.org 4) 270towin.com - I think these 3, 4 sources will give you the greatest mosaic on getting a picture of what's going on.
    i've actually seen people get banned after less than 10 posts, brand new member (not just new to posting). 
    Who are we talking about here, gents?
    Was wondering the same. I remember a few months ago we had a 'professor' that called everyone racist.  That was a fascinating 72 hours. 
  • gimmesometruth27
    gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 24,050
    mrussel1 said:
    The Juggler said:
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    So does someone go out of their way to pay for a PJ membership only to make 14 comments that could be better served in the Facebook comment section of a Breitbart article?

    Like bots can't sign up for a board membership right? So like this takes some serious work to want to troll a board where you pay right? On a semi-related note - I would pay a lot more for privileges here so that dips like this could not justify hanging around.

    On a thread-related note:

    My sources for following are: 1) 538 2) The Economist's model 3) PredictIt.org 4) 270towin.com - I think these 3, 4 sources will give you the greatest mosaic on getting a picture of what's going on.
    i've actually seen people get banned after less than 10 posts, brand new member (not just new to posting). 
    Who are we talking about here, gents?
    Was wondering the same. I remember a few months ago we had a 'professor' that called everyone racist.  That was a fascinating 72 hours. 
    i remember that one!

    * pours out beer in memory of the homie...
    "You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry."  - Lincoln

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,104
    I wonder how the Gays Against Pete “movement” is progressing? They need to be mobilized and ready for 2024 with at least a chapter in every state. 
    09/15/1998 & 09/16/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/27/2008, Hartford; 06/28/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield; 08/18/2009, O2, London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA; 09/08/2022, Toronto, Ont; 09/11/2022, New York, NY; 09/14/2022, Camden, NJ; 09/02/2023, St. Paul, MN; 05/04/2024 & 05/06/2024, Vancouver, BC; 05/10/2024, Portland, OR;

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  • bootleg
    bootleg Posts: 1,207
    dignin said:

    Jimmy Failla: Trump is on pace to win 2020 election in a 'lawn-slide' -- here's why I say that



    Trucker polls show Trump enjoying a massive edge in signage


    https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-win-2020-lawn-slide-jimmy-failla









    Trumpeters tend to be pretty loud about it so that’s one reason you’ll see more signs.  The other reason is Biden supporters likely don’t want to paint a big target on their house since Trump is also the party of more crazy nut jobs.
  • darwinstheory
    darwinstheory LaPorte, IN Posts: 7,357
    bootleg said:
    dignin said:

    Jimmy Failla: Trump is on pace to win 2020 election in a 'lawn-slide' -- here's why I say that



    Trucker polls show Trump enjoying a massive edge in signage


    https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-win-2020-lawn-slide-jimmy-failla









    Trumpeters tend to be pretty loud about it so that’s one reason you’ll see more signs.  The other reason is Biden supporters likely don’t want to paint a big target on their house since Trump is also the party of more crazy nut jobs.
    1000% this
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory

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