Nate Silver 538

Lerxst1992

The Juggler said:

static111 said:

The Juggler said:

I wonder when PA moves out of the tippling point category. The model now give Joe his best chance of winning here all year now (82%). 

I read an article about  Pennsylvania being so crooked  the electors could go to trump even if he doesn’t win.   

“ In Pennsylvania, three Republican leaders told me they had already discussed the direct appointment of electors among themselves, and one said he had discussed it with Trump’s national campaign.

“I’ve mentioned it to them, and I hope they’re thinking about it too,” Lawrence Tabas, the Pennsylvania Republican Party’s chairman, told me. “I just don’t think this is the right time for me to be discussing those strategies and approaches, but [direct appointment of electors] is one of the options. It is one of the available legal options set forth in the Constitution.” He added that everyone’s preference is to get a swift and accurate count. “If the process, though, is flawed, and has significant flaws, our public may lose faith and confidence” in the election’s integrity.

Jake Corman, the state’s Senate majority leader, preferred to change the subject, emphasizing that he hoped a clean vote count would produce a final tally on Election Night. “The longer it goes on, the more opinions and the more theories and the more conspiracies [are] created,” he told me. If controversy persists as the safe-harbor date nears, he allowed, the legislature will have no choice but to appoint electors. “We don’t want to go down that road, but we understand where the law takes us, and we’ll follow the law.””

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/

Yeah shenanigans could def happen if it's decided by less than 1% or something. But tough to do when he loses by like 4%. Fingers crossed!

Constitution says state legislatures send list of electors, while the PA law states the secretary of commonwealth and governor certify election results. There could be 2 separate lists of PA electors.

But guess who sets the rules to count electoral votes. Hint: Begins with an N and ends with an i. 

dignin

Poll: Biden leads grow in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

Biden holds a 5 percentage point lead in Pennsylvania and a 6 percentage point lead in Wisconsin over President Trump less than a month before the election, according to Reuters-Ipsos polls conducted in both states. 

The former vice president earned 50 percent of the support in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Trump received 45 percent and 44 percent, respectively. Biden’s leads in both states remain within the polls’ 5 percentage point margins of error.

In mid-September, 49 percent of Pennsylvania respondents sided with Biden, while 46 percent went with Trump. In Wisconsin, 48 percent of respondents said they would vote for the former vice president, compared with 43 percent who said they would vote for the president. Biden’s mid-September leads also fell within the polls’ 5 percentage point margins of error


https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/519735-poll-biden-leads-grow-in-pennsylvania-wisconsin

Gern Blansten

Looks like Oh is back to Trump for now but Biden doesn't need it 

Lerxst1992

Its morning in America.

polling I haven’t seen since the days of Reagan/ Mondale

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/06/politics/cnn-poll-biden-trump-2020-election/index.html


wow.

OnWis97

The Juggler said:

static111 said:

The Juggler said:

I wonder when PA moves out of the tippling point category. The model now give Joe his best chance of winning here all year now (82%). 

I read an article about  Pennsylvania being so crooked  the electors could go to trump even if he doesn’t win.   

“ In Pennsylvania, three Republican leaders told me they had already discussed the direct appointment of electors among themselves, and one said he had discussed it with Trump’s national campaign.

“I’ve mentioned it to them, and I hope they’re thinking about it too,” Lawrence Tabas, the Pennsylvania Republican Party’s chairman, told me. “I just don’t think this is the right time for me to be discussing those strategies and approaches, but [direct appointment of electors] is one of the options. It is one of the available legal options set forth in the Constitution.” He added that everyone’s preference is to get a swift and accurate count. “If the process, though, is flawed, and has significant flaws, our public may lose faith and confidence” in the election’s integrity.

Jake Corman, the state’s Senate majority leader, preferred to change the subject, emphasizing that he hoped a clean vote count would produce a final tally on Election Night. “The longer it goes on, the more opinions and the more theories and the more conspiracies [are] created,” he told me. If controversy persists as the safe-harbor date nears, he allowed, the legislature will have no choice but to appoint electors. “We don’t want to go down that road, but we understand where the law takes us, and we’ll follow the law.””

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/

Yeah shenanigans could def happen if it's decided by less than 1% or something. But tough to do when he loses by like 4%. Fingers crossed!

I mean, it's a worse look if he loses by a bigger margin, but they could do this if he loses by 99%. It's the "genius" of the electoral college.

gimmesometruth27

do not believe the polls. the polls do not count the votes. VOTE!!!!

OnWis97

gimmesometruth27 said:

do not believe the polls. the polls do not count the votes. VOTE!!!!

Yep...assume it's tied everywhere, particularly your own state. 

tbergs

Lerxst1992 said:

Its morning in America.

polling I haven’t seen since the days of Reagan/ Mondale

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/06/politics/cnn-poll-biden-trump-2020-election/index.html


wow.

The problem is that those for Trump think that the last election proved polling is wrong and that smart people don't know shit, so now we need the correction to hit hard and sink these idiots back into reality.

Halifax2TheMax

tbergs said:

Lerxst1992 said:

Its morning in America.

polling I haven’t seen since the days of Reagan/ Mondale

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/06/politics/cnn-poll-biden-trump-2020-election/index.html


wow.

The problem is that those for Trump think that the last election proved polling is wrong and that smart people don't know shit, so now we need the correction to hit hard and sink these idiots back into reality.

There is no reality other than an alternative reality for these deplorables.

Gern Blansten

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1313494604424130573

The Juggler

Gern Blansten said:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1313494604424130573

Biden in a landslide if election were today. What the fuck else can happen in the next 4 weeks though? 

Trump's going to get even more irrational as he realizes his presidency is slipping away. 

11/3 cannot get her soon enough. 

Lerxst1992

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1313494604424130573

Biden in a landslide if election were today. What the fuck else can happen in the next 4 weeks though? 

Trump's going to get even more irrational as he realizes his presidency is slipping away. 

11/3 cannot get her soon enough. 

I posted a link to that CNN poll because I haven’t seen a presidential polling lead this close to an election at 57-41 since the Reagan days. It looks like voters are correctly blaming trump for getting himself sick.

4 weeks will be interesting, considering the side effects of the steroid trump is taking (it’s like trump personality on steroids),

1. Aggression
2. agitation
3. anxiety
4. blurred vision
5. decrease in the amount of urine
6. dizziness
7. fast, slow, pounding, or irregular heartbeat or pulse
8. headache
9. irritability
10. mental depression
11. mood changes
12. nervousness
13. noisy, rattling breathing
14. numbness or tingling in the arms or legs
15. pounding in the ears
16. swelling of the fingers, hands, feet, or lower legs
17. trouble thinking, speaking, or walking
18. troubled breathing at rest
19. weight gain

Gern Blansten

I'll admit to being nervous.  I think the votes will be there to get rid of him but I grow more and more convinced that he will do something shady.

I'm also nervous that COVID might not be as kind to Biden if he catches it.  Wouldn't it be awful if the asshole that downplays it recovers and the guy that set a good example has a worse result?

The Juggler

Gern Blansten said:

I'll admit to being nervous.  I think the votes will be there to get rid of him but I grow more and more convinced that he will do something shady.

I'm also nervous that COVID might not be as kind to Biden if he catches it.  Wouldn't it be awful if the asshole that downplays it recovers and the guy that set a good example has a worse result?

Yeah I am a little worried that Biden's gonna test positive. They need an enormous wall separating those two next week

static111

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

I'll admit to being nervous.  I think the votes will be there to get rid of him but I grow more and more convinced that he will do something shady.

I'm also nervous that COVID might not be as kind to Biden if he catches it.  Wouldn't it be awful if the asshole that downplays it recovers and the guy that set a good example has a worse result?

Yeah I am a little worried that Biden's gonna test positive. They need an enormous wall separating those two next week

If trump
is still positive postpone the debate. 

Gern Blansten

New FL poll in...Biden +6

HughFreakingDillon

The Juggler said:

Gern Blansten said:

I'll admit to being nervous.  I think the votes will be there to get rid of him but I grow more and more convinced that he will do something shady.

I'm also nervous that COVID might not be as kind to Biden if he catches it.  Wouldn't it be awful if the asshole that downplays it recovers and the guy that set a good example has a worse result?

Yeah I am a little worried that Biden's gonna test positive. They need an enormous wall separating those two next week

trump would probably intentionally spit or projectile breathe on him in some way. wouldn't put it past him. 

gimmesometruth27

Gern Blansten said:

New FL poll in...Biden +6

ramussen probably has trump up by 4

Lerxst1992

Gern Blansten said:

New FL poll in...Biden +6

This is FL 4 years ago, interesting that all polling, and especially  U of North Fla, is almost 4 years to the day and about the same result 

mrussel1

Lerxst1992 said:

Gern Blansten said:

New FL poll in...Biden +6

This is FL 4 years ago, interesting that all polling, and especially  U of North Fla, is almost 4 years to the day and about the same result 

I don't see being able to compare the two.  Not changing your assumptions in the demo split after 16 and 18 would be criminal from a polling perspective.