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Nate Silver 538

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  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,744
    87%?

    NY Times:

    Since last week, the share of white non-college over 30 registrations in the battleground states has increased by 10 points compared to September 2016, and the Democratic margin dropped 10 points to just 6 points. And there are serious signs of political engagement by white non-college voters who had not cast ballots in previous elections.

    David Wasserman, House editor for The Cook Political Report. wrote on Oct. 1 that voter registration patterns over a longer period in key battleground states show that “Republicans have swamped Democrats in adding new voters to the rolls, a dramatic GOP improvement over 2016.”


    Florida, since the state’s March primary, added 195,652 Republicans and 98,362 Democrats.

    Pennsylvania, since June, Republicans plus 135,619, Democrats up 57,985.

    North Carolina, since March, Republicans up 83,785 to Democrats 38,137.

    In Arizona, the exception, “Democrats out-registered Republicans 31,139 to 29,667” in recent months

  • MayDay10MayDay10 Posts: 10,486
    At this time in 2016, October 15th, it was 85.5% to 15.5% for Clinton on 538.  It was near its peak.  On October 25th, the % really tightened up a bit through November 5th.
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South PhillyPosts: 12,546
    Wasn't the Comey letter published around this time?
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South PhillyPosts: 12,546
    As far as D/R registration my take is that 2016 was a type of "market correction" in voter reg. For example, here in PA it was mainly people that haven't identified as a Dem in years and if anything the numbers are more "true" today than they were in 2016 - e.g. old white union workers, white racists, etc etc etc. That's what I buy the margins more today than in 2016, especially if that were to mean margins were tightening. I think they're more honest (the voter rolls) and indicative of vote expectation now.

    Now, the idea that there is, or ever was, a '08/'12 Obama+'16 Trump voter throws me through a loop possibly more than the idea of an undecided voter in 2020.
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,863
    Wasn't the Comey letter published around this time?
    actually it was Oct 28th
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South PhillyPosts: 12,546
    Wasn't the Comey letter published around this time?
    actually it was Oct 28th
    Interesting. Come that time (the 25th-28th) if we don't see that kind of tightening like in 2016 then we can clearly see much of an affect that had on that race.
  • Halifax2TheMaxHalifax2TheMax Posts: 25,586
    I’ll bet the polling can’t or doesn’t take into account repubs who voted Obama and McCain and Romney repubs who are breaking for Sleepy Woke Joe Basement Biden, because he’s ahead in all three of those categories. Bigley.
    09/15/1998, Mansfield, MA; 08/29/00 08/30/00, Mansfield, MA; 07/02/03, 07/03/03, Mansfield, MA; 09/28/04, 09/29/04, Boston, MA; 09/22/05, Halifax, NS; 05/24/06, 05/25/06, Boston, MA; 07/22/06, 07/23/06, Gorge, WA; 06/29/08, 06/30/08, Mansfield, MA; 08/18/08, O2 London, UK; 10/30/09, 10/31/09, Philadelphia, PA; 05/15/10, Hartford, CT; 05/17/10, Boston, MA; 05/20/10, 05/21/10, NY, NY; 06/22/10, Dublin, IRE; 06/23/10, Northern Ireland; 09/03/11, 09/04/11, Alpine Valley, WI; 09/11/11, 09/12/11, Toronto, Ont; 09/14/11, Ottawa, Ont; 09/15/11, Hamilton, Ont; 07/02/2012, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/04/2012 & 07/05/2012, Berlin, Germany; 07/07/2012, Stockholm, Sweden; 09/30/2012, Missoula, MT; 07/16/2013, London, Ont; 07/19/2013, Chicago, IL; 10/15/2013 & 10/16/2013, Worcester, MA; 10/21/2013 & 10/22/2013, Philadelphia, PA; 10/25/2013, Hartford, CT; 11/29/2013, Portland, OR; 11/30/2013, Spokane, WA; 12/04/2013, Vancouver, BC; 12/06/2013, Seattle, WA; 10/03/2014, St. Louis. MO; 10/22/2014, Denver, CO; 10/26/2015, New York, NY; 04/23/2016, New Orleans, LA; 04/28/2016 & 04/29/2016, Philadelphia, PA; 05/01/2016 & 05/02/2016, New York, NY; 05/08/2016, Ottawa, Ont.; 05/10/2016 & 05/12/2016, Toronto, Ont.; 08/05/2016 & 08/07/2016, Boston, MA; 08/20/2016 & 08/22/2016, Chicago, IL; 07/01/2018, Prague, Czech Republic; 07/03/2018, Krakow, Poland; 07/05/2018, Berlin, Germany; 09/02/2018 & 09/04/2018, Boston, MA;

    "If you're looking down on someone, it better be to extend them a hand to lift them up."

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  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 18,734
    I’ll bet the polling can’t or doesn’t take into account repubs who voted Obama and McCain and Romney repubs who are breaking for Sleepy Woke Joe Basement Biden, because he’s ahead in all three of those categories. Bigley.
    There's data moving both ways.  However,  Trump campaigning in Iowa tells you what his internal numbers show. 
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South PhillyPosts: 12,546
    As far as D/R registration my take is that 2016 was a type of "market correction" in voter reg. For example, here in PA it was mainly people that haven't identified as a Dem in years and if anything the numbers are more "true" today than they were in 2016 - e.g. old white union workers, white racists, etc etc etc. That's what I buy the margins more today than in 2016, especially if that were to mean margins were tightening. I think they're more honest (the voter rolls) and indicative of vote expectation now.

    Now, the idea that there is, or ever was, a '08/'12 Obama+'16 Trump voter throws me through a loop possibly more than the idea of an undecided voter in 2020.
    Very good thread/assessment on this in re: to PA here:


  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,863
    OH back to tRump now....GA listed as Biden
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,744
    As far as D/R registration my take is that 2016 was a type of "market correction" in voter reg. For example, here in PA it was mainly people that haven't identified as a Dem in years and if anything the numbers are more "true" today than they were in 2016 - e.g. old white union workers, white racists, etc etc etc. That's what I buy the margins more today than in 2016, especially if that were to mean margins were tightening. I think they're more honest (the voter rolls) and indicative of vote expectation now.

    Now, the idea that there is, or ever was, a '08/'12 Obama+'16 Trump voter throws me through a loop possibly more than the idea of an undecided voter in 2020.


    In those 3 swing states (PA WI MI), Rs have outregistered Ds by about 230,000 voters in the last few months. That’s a huge margin, in just a few states over a short period of time. Besides the strong numbers, It speaks to organization, ground game and enthusiasm, things the Dems used to have an advantage with. I wouldn’t look at party registration margins, because often those stats reflect other factors such as union membership or local politics.

    I am sure the Biden camp is concerned at these registration numbers and likely do not believe they have an 87% probability of defeating trump.

    With that Putnam tweet you linked was an interesting story on PA, which mentioned many out of state students are not attending classes now, yet another factor that could hurt Biden in PA and other states like WI and MI.
    https://www.penncapital-star.com/government-politics/gop-sees-voter-reg-surge-as-fall-campaign-begins-analysis/
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,076
    As far as D/R registration my take is that 2016 was a type of "market correction" in voter reg. For example, here in PA it was mainly people that haven't identified as a Dem in years and if anything the numbers are more "true" today than they were in 2016 - e.g. old white union workers, white racists, etc etc etc. That's what I buy the margins more today than in 2016, especially if that were to mean margins were tightening. I think they're more honest (the voter rolls) and indicative of vote expectation now.

    Now, the idea that there is, or ever was, a '08/'12 Obama+'16 Trump voter throws me through a loop possibly more than the idea of an undecided voter in 2020.


    In those 3 swing states (PA WI MI), Rs have outregistered Ds by about 230,000 voters in the last few months. That’s a huge margin, in just a few states over a short period of time. Besides the strong numbers, It speaks to organization, ground game and enthusiasm, things the Dems used to have an advantage with. I wouldn’t look at party registration margins, because often those stats reflect other factors such as union membership or local politics.

    I am sure the Biden camp is concerned at these registration numbers and likely do not believe they have an 87% probability of defeating trump.

    With that Putnam tweet you linked was an interesting story on PA, which mentioned many out of state students are not attending classes now, yet another factor that could hurt Biden in PA and other states like WI and MI.
    https://www.penncapital-star.com/government-politics/gop-sees-voter-reg-surge-as-fall-campaign-begins-analysis/
    Take a deep breath, man. It's gonna be fine.
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,744
    As far as D/R registration my take is that 2016 was a type of "market correction" in voter reg. For example, here in PA it was mainly people that haven't identified as a Dem in years and if anything the numbers are more "true" today than they were in 2016 - e.g. old white union workers, white racists, etc etc etc. That's what I buy the margins more today than in 2016, especially if that were to mean margins were tightening. I think they're more honest (the voter rolls) and indicative of vote expectation now.

    Now, the idea that there is, or ever was, a '08/'12 Obama+'16 Trump voter throws me through a loop possibly more than the idea of an undecided voter in 2020.


    In those 3 swing states (PA WI MI), Rs have outregistered Ds by about 230,000 voters in the last few months. That’s a huge margin, in just a few states over a short period of time. Besides the strong numbers, It speaks to organization, ground game and enthusiasm, things the Dems used to have an advantage with. I wouldn’t look at party registration margins, because often those stats reflect other factors such as union membership or local politics.

    I am sure the Biden camp is concerned at these registration numbers and likely do not believe they have an 87% probability of defeating trump.

    With that Putnam tweet you linked was an interesting story on PA, which mentioned many out of state students are not attending classes now, yet another factor that could hurt Biden in PA and other states like WI and MI.
    https://www.penncapital-star.com/government-politics/gop-sees-voter-reg-surge-as-fall-campaign-begins-analysis/
    Take a deep breath, man. It's gonna be fine.

    Am I being mocked?

    Why can’t people who do not agree with 538s projections attempt to have a discussion about an important data point released this week? 
  • darwinstheorydarwinstheory LaPorte, INPosts: 4,258
    GA still (barely) Biden and OH back to RED. No bueno amigos
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 18,734
    As far as D/R registration my take is that 2016 was a type of "market correction" in voter reg. For example, here in PA it was mainly people that haven't identified as a Dem in years and if anything the numbers are more "true" today than they were in 2016 - e.g. old white union workers, white racists, etc etc etc. That's what I buy the margins more today than in 2016, especially if that were to mean margins were tightening. I think they're more honest (the voter rolls) and indicative of vote expectation now.

    Now, the idea that there is, or ever was, a '08/'12 Obama+'16 Trump voter throws me through a loop possibly more than the idea of an undecided voter in 2020.


    In those 3 swing states (PA WI MI), Rs have outregistered Ds by about 230,000 voters in the last few months. That’s a huge margin, in just a few states over a short period of time. Besides the strong numbers, It speaks to organization, ground game and enthusiasm, things the Dems used to have an advantage with. I wouldn’t look at party registration margins, because often those stats reflect other factors such as union membership or local politics.

    I am sure the Biden camp is concerned at these registration numbers and likely do not believe they have an 87% probability of defeating trump.

    With that Putnam tweet you linked was an interesting story on PA, which mentioned many out of state students are not attending classes now, yet another factor that could hurt Biden in PA and other states like WI and MI.
    https://www.penncapital-star.com/government-politics/gop-sees-voter-reg-surge-as-fall-campaign-begins-analysis/
    Take a deep breath, man. It's gonna be fine.

    Am I being mocked?

    Why can’t people who do not agree with 538s projections attempt to have a discussion about an important data point released this week? 
    Registration numbers are of concern, but here’s the more food for thought 

    1. Democrats have a sizable advantage to start.  The key is getting them to polls
    2. Registering someone in a party is part of a normal drive event.  That’s no guarantee they will vote the party or even vote at all.
    3.  These people are the very definition of someone unlikely to vote.  


  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,076
    As far as D/R registration my take is that 2016 was a type of "market correction" in voter reg. For example, here in PA it was mainly people that haven't identified as a Dem in years and if anything the numbers are more "true" today than they were in 2016 - e.g. old white union workers, white racists, etc etc etc. That's what I buy the margins more today than in 2016, especially if that were to mean margins were tightening. I think they're more honest (the voter rolls) and indicative of vote expectation now.

    Now, the idea that there is, or ever was, a '08/'12 Obama+'16 Trump voter throws me through a loop possibly more than the idea of an undecided voter in 2020.


    In those 3 swing states (PA WI MI), Rs have outregistered Ds by about 230,000 voters in the last few months. That’s a huge margin, in just a few states over a short period of time. Besides the strong numbers, It speaks to organization, ground game and enthusiasm, things the Dems used to have an advantage with. I wouldn’t look at party registration margins, because often those stats reflect other factors such as union membership or local politics.

    I am sure the Biden camp is concerned at these registration numbers and likely do not believe they have an 87% probability of defeating trump.

    With that Putnam tweet you linked was an interesting story on PA, which mentioned many out of state students are not attending classes now, yet another factor that could hurt Biden in PA and other states like WI and MI.
    https://www.penncapital-star.com/government-politics/gop-sees-voter-reg-surge-as-fall-campaign-begins-analysis/
    Take a deep breath, man. It's gonna be fine.

    Am I being mocked?

    Why can’t people who do not agree with 538s projections attempt to have a discussion about an important data point released this week? 
    Mocked? I’m telling you to relax. 

    Today Biden is in Michigan and Trump is in Georgia. That tells you all you need to know about the state of the race. 
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,863
    GA still (barely) Biden and OH back to RED. No bueno amigos
    Biden doesn't need OH....it would be nice though
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 18,734
    GA still (barely) Biden and OH back to RED. No bueno amigos
    Biden doesn't need OH....it would be nice though
    These are just button on pipe dreams, like TX.  I have no expectation of any of them going Biden.  
  • darwinstheorydarwinstheory LaPorte, INPosts: 4,258
    GA still (barely) Biden and OH back to RED. No bueno amigos
    Biden doesn't need OH....it would be nice though
    I want Joe to get every bit he can get. Ideally, a thorough ass kicking would help to silence, or at least quiet the cult.
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 10,863
    GA still (barely) Biden and OH back to RED. No bueno amigos
    Biden doesn't need OH....it would be nice though
    I want Joe to get every bit he can get. Ideally, a thorough ass kicking would help to silence, or at least quiet the cult.
    I feel like if things go our way with turnout it's a done deal....Biden is going to win big

    But then I worry about the bullshit that tRump is doing behind the scenes and potential Russian bullshit
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • darwinstheorydarwinstheory LaPorte, INPosts: 4,258
    GA still (barely) Biden and OH back to RED. No bueno amigos
    Biden doesn't need OH....it would be nice though
    I want Joe to get every bit he can get. Ideally, a thorough ass kicking would help to silence, or at least quiet the cult.
    I feel like if things go our way with turnout it's a done deal....Biden is going to win big

    But then I worry about the bullshit that tRump is doing behind the scenes and potential Russian bullshit
    I think we HAVE to worry about that stuff. It ain't over until Joe is inaugurated and Deputy Dipshit is back at one of his other homes.
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • OnWis97OnWis97 St. Paul, MNPosts: 2,988
    GA still (barely) Biden and OH back to RED. No bueno amigos
    Biden doesn't need OH....it would be nice though
    I want Joe to get every bit he can get. Ideally, a thorough ass kicking would help to silence, or at least quiet the cult.

    If Biden wins with a cushion of a few states, it would be great. If he wins but one close state is difference-making, Barr and the high court overturn that shit.  I really think he needs a suprise like Ohio or Texas.
    1995 Milwaukee
    1998 Alpine, Alpine
    2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston
    2004 Boston, Boston
    2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty)
    2011 Alpine, Alpine
    2013 Wrigley
    2014 St. Paul
    2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley
    2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South PhillyPosts: 12,546
    I think everyone should be more concerned with him winning Florida. There's more of a chance of FLA than TX/OH/GA and I still don't feel good about Florida.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 18,734
    I think everyone should be more concerned with him winning Florida. There's more of a chance of FLA than TX/OH/GA and I still don't feel good about Florida.
    Florida is too fucked up to trust. 
  • Jearlpam0925Jearlpam0925 Deep South PhillyPosts: 12,546
    mrussel1 said:
    I think everyone should be more concerned with him winning Florida. There's more of a chance of FLA than TX/OH/GA and I still don't feel good about Florida.
    Florida is too fucked up to trust. 
    Still certainly closer than GA/TX/OH though! Arizona is ahead of those, too, which I need to see to believe.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 18,734
    mrussel1 said:
    I think everyone should be more concerned with him winning Florida. There's more of a chance of FLA than TX/OH/GA and I still don't feel good about Florida.
    Florida is too fucked up to trust. 
    Still certainly closer than GA/TX/OH though! Arizona is ahead of those, too, which I need to see to believe.
    I believe in Arizona.  Sinema winning in 18 tells me it really is shifting. 
  • OnWis97OnWis97 St. Paul, MNPosts: 2,988
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    I think everyone should be more concerned with him winning Florida. There's more of a chance of FLA than TX/OH/GA and I still don't feel good about Florida.
    Florida is too fucked up to trust. 
    Still certainly closer than GA/TX/OH though! Arizona is ahead of those, too, which I need to see to believe.
    I believe in Arizona.  Sinema winning in 18 tells me it really is shifting. 
    Did she beat McSally, though?  The Arizona GOP has to stop trotting her out there.  She must have given some serious money to someone. Or she has compromising photos.  She's going to lose her gifted seat. I hope that translates to the big election...we'll see.
    1995 Milwaukee
    1998 Alpine, Alpine
    2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston
    2004 Boston, Boston
    2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty)
    2011 Alpine, Alpine
    2013 Wrigley
    2014 St. Paul
    2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley
    2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley
  • The JugglerThe Juggler Behind that bush over there.Posts: 38,076
    OnWis97 said:
    GA still (barely) Biden and OH back to RED. No bueno amigos
    Biden doesn't need OH....it would be nice though
    I want Joe to get every bit he can get. Ideally, a thorough ass kicking would help to silence, or at least quiet the cult.

    If Biden wins with a cushion of a few states, it would be great. If he wins but one close state is difference-making, Barr and the high court overturn that shit.  I really think he needs a suprise like Ohio or Texas.
    No. If he wins by one state and its by less than 1%....maybe there would be an issue. But if he wins that 1 state by 4 or 5%? It's curtains. 
    chinese-happy.jpg
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 18,734
    edited October 16
    OnWis97 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    I think everyone should be more concerned with him winning Florida. There's more of a chance of FLA than TX/OH/GA and I still don't feel good about Florida.
    Florida is too fucked up to trust. 
    Still certainly closer than GA/TX/OH though! Arizona is ahead of those, too, which I need to see to believe.
    I believe in Arizona.  Sinema winning in 18 tells me it really is shifting. 
    Did she beat McSally, though?  The Arizona GOP has to stop trotting her out there.  She must have given some serious money to someone. Or she has compromising photos.  She's going to lose her gifted seat. I hope that translates to the big election...we'll see.
    Yes it was McSally. Now she's up against an astronaut. That's no easier. 
  • OnWis97OnWis97 St. Paul, MNPosts: 2,988
    mrussel1 said:
    OnWis97 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    I think everyone should be more concerned with him winning Florida. There's more of a chance of FLA than TX/OH/GA and I still don't feel good about Florida.
    Florida is too fucked up to trust. 
    Still certainly closer than GA/TX/OH though! Arizona is ahead of those, too, which I need to see to believe.
    I believe in Arizona.  Sinema winning in 18 tells me it really is shifting. 
    Did she beat McSally, though?  The Arizona GOP has to stop trotting her out there.  She must have given some serious money to someone. Or she has compromising photos.  She's going to lose her gifted seat. I hope that translates to the big election...we'll see.
    Yes it was McSally. Now she's up against an astronaut. That's no easier. 
    It looks like McSally's going to get crushed. Hopefully that reflects on how they vote in other races.
    1995 Milwaukee
    1998 Alpine, Alpine
    2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston
    2004 Boston, Boston
    2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty)
    2011 Alpine, Alpine
    2013 Wrigley
    2014 St. Paul
    2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley
    2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley
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