Was just reading a skeptical commenter on 538s sub, who pointed out 538 had Nelson odds of winning 2018 senate race at 70%. A race that close should have been 50/50.
Lets hope seniors really do flip, and really do show up. And first time NCW Trump voting is minimal.
Right, but having a 70% chance of winning is not the same as the race still being close to around 50/50 on voting. I know this has been said many times before, but that percentage of winning doesn't mean it's going to be a blowout. What's Biden's current prediction to win the popular vote? North of 90%? Doesn't mean Trump still won't get almost 60 million votes (Yuck!).
at first glance, that 538 prediction of the 2018 FL senate race looked to be 20% off. There is something happening in FL The last 7 years that pollsters are not able to identify. 70% means it’s more than twice as likely that Nelson was going to win. I did not say it was predicted to be a blowout, just that the odds should be near 50 50
Tying that to the current race, it’s been pointed out here that Bidens 87% mirrors his chances exactly in the tipping point state, which is now PA. If 538 is wrong about PA the next state is FL.
No democrat should have any confidence about a statewide vote in FL. IIRC the Dems have lost every statewide FL election since Obama 2012. And that’s tipping point state #2.
I saw that Texas is close. Texas will be finished election night. If Biden wins Texas, there is no way the thing could be reasonably contested. I realize it is a BIG if.... but it could be a way to subvert a very painful and ugly chapter
Yup. Dude, Biden's only down 14 in West Virginia of all places according one poll out today. HRC lost that by 40%. If that poll is anywhere near accurate, you're damn right Texas is a possibility
There is a better chance of me open mouth kissing trump than Biden winning Texas.
I saw that Texas is close. Texas will be finished election night. If Biden wins Texas, there is no way the thing could be reasonably contested. I realize it is a BIG if.... but it could be a way to subvert a very painful and ugly chapter
Yup. Dude, Biden's only down 14 in West Virginia of all places according one poll out today. HRC lost that by 40%. If that poll is anywhere near accurate, you're damn right Texas is a possibility
There is a better chance of me open mouth kissing trump than Biden winning Texas.
I saw that Texas is close. Texas will be finished election night. If Biden wins Texas, there is no way the thing could be reasonably contested. I realize it is a BIG if.... but it could be a way to subvert a very painful and ugly chapter
Yup. Dude, Biden's only down 14 in West Virginia of all places according one poll out today. HRC lost that by 40%. If that poll is anywhere near accurate, you're damn right Texas is a possibility
There is a better chance of me open mouth kissing trump than Biden winning Texas.
What's odd is the odds Silver has Biden winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College @ 8 in 100. I mean this is Trump's only way to winning, you would think those odds of happening would be a bit higher.
I can’t imagine anyone being less enthusiastic right now...
1995 Milwaukee 1998 Alpine, Alpine 2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston 2004 Boston, Boston 2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty) 2011 Alpine, Alpine 2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
And that’s essentially what happened in 2016: Trump beat his polls by just a few points in just a few states. The presidential polls were, simply, not that off. State-level polling was less accurate, although as editor-in-chief Nate Silver wrote after the election, it was “still within the ‘normal’ range of accuracy.”
That doesn’t mean there weren’t plenty of polling lessons to be gleaned from 2016, though. The importance of education in predicting a person’s political preferences was a big one. And so to better understand those takeaways, we contacted 21 well-known pollsters to find out how they adjusted their methodologies, if at all, and what concerns them most about polling in 2020. In the end, 15 got back to us — a 71 percent response rate that pollsters only dream of in this day and age.1 Here’s what they had to say.
More pollsters are weighting by education and using new ways to reach respondents
Nearly every pollster we talked to has made some kind of modification since the last general election. Some changes were precipitated by what happened in 2016, while others were driven by the challenges facing the polling industry, such as low response rates to phone calls and the greater cost of high-quality polling.
But one thing came up again and again in our interviews: Pollsters told us they were now weighting their samples by education, because one key takeaway from 2016 was just how important someone’s level of educational attainment was in predicting their vote. “In mid-2016, we changed our weights by education, moving the percentage of high school or less respondents up while dropping the college-plus down,” said Jeff Horwitt, a senior vice president at Hart Research, one of the pollsters for the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. It was the middle of the election cycle, but already Horwitt and his team were concerned that they might be underestimating the share of the electorate who didn’t have a four-year college degree, and therefore, missing some of Trump’s support. They were right to be concerned, too. A real problem for the polling industry writ large was the underrepresentation of voters with little or no college education.
Kudos to all the people in Georgia that waited for like 10 hours to vote. But it's really, really disgusting that it has come to this. A friend in Austin, TX waited 3.5 hours. I was in and out in 15 minutes. Of course, my governor is not doing all he can for the Party of Trump and its namesake...
1995 Milwaukee 1998 Alpine, Alpine 2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston 2004 Boston, Boston 2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty) 2011 Alpine, Alpine 2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
Kudos to all the people in Georgia that waited for like 10 hours to vote. But it's really, really disgusting that it has come to this. A friend in Austin, TX waited 3.5 hours. I was in and out in 15 minutes. Of course, my governor is not doing all he can for the Party of Trump and its namesake...
Yeah I saw something that apparently due to the reversal in TX people in Harris County went from about 87% were able to drive within 20 minutes to a drop box down to 29%. Nuts.
Kudos to all the people in Georgia that waited for like 10 hours to vote. But it's really, really disgusting that it has come to this. A friend in Austin, TX waited 3.5 hours. I was in and out in 15 minutes. Of course, my governor is not doing all he can for the Party of Trump and its namesake...
On John Oliver's show, he showed a video of a voter that waited like 7 hours to vote in a primary. Can't remember which state though. The voter intended to listen to the latest Run The Jewels album while in line. He ended up listening to every Run The Jewels album, and watching season 8 of Curb Your Enthusiasm.
I think it's hard to conclude much. Trump has actively pushed his base not to vote by mail. I know this is early and mail but still one should expect a bigger wave of Red on election day.
GA or TX has less of a chance of voting blue than me n Tiffany becoming friends. It’s her dad who wants to kiss everybody, but if Tiff is willing, screw covid.
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GA or TX has less of a chance of voting blue than me n Tiffany becoming friends. It’s her dad who wants to kiss everybody, but if Tiff is willing, screw covid.
I don't know why you think think it is impossible at this point. All indications are both are at least within the margin of error. I don't think he will win either, but yeah man, it is absolutely within the realm of possibility at this point.
I think it's hard to conclude much. Trump has actively pushed his base not to vote by mail. I know this is early and mail but still one should expect a bigger wave of Red on election day.
I mean there's a fixed amount of votes and a snapshot of %'s that can help paint a picture of where we are before votes are even counted on November 3rd.
GA or TX has less of a chance of voting blue than me n Tiffany becoming friends. It’s her dad who wants to kiss everybody, but if Tiff is willing, screw covid.
I don't know why you think think it is impossible at this point. All indications are both are at least within the margin of error. I don't think he will win either, but yeah man, it is absolutely within the realm of possibility at this point.
We need GWB to come out strongly for Sleepy Woke Joe Basement Biden and condemn Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat aggressively and repeatedly.
GA or TX has less of a chance of voting blue than me n Tiffany becoming friends. It’s her dad who wants to kiss everybody, but if Tiff is willing, screw covid.
I don't know why you think think it is impossible at this point. All indications are both are at least within the margin of error. I don't think he will win either, but yeah man, it is absolutely within the realm of possibility at this point.
We need GWB to come out strongly for Sleepy Woke Joe Basement Biden and condemn Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat aggressively and repeatedly.
I am hoping that there is a plan for this....some big name republicans need to speak out.
Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago 2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy 2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE) 2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston 2020: Oakland, Oakland:2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana 2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville 2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
GWB should come out now as an October surprise and scream from the mountain tops that Trump and McConnell are dangerous and ruining democracy. Would possibly turn Texas, and save us from bloodshed and a constitutional crisis.
GWB should come out now as an October surprise and scream from the mountain tops that Trump and McConnell are dangerous and ruining democracy. Would possibly turn Texas, and save us from bloodshed and a constitutional crisis.
It would be beautiful...I follow Miles Taylor (former DHS asst under tRump) on twitter...he says that there is going to be a lot of former tRump officials speak out soon.
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Pearl Jam bootlegs:
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at first glance, that 538 prediction of the 2018 FL senate race looked to be 20% off. There is something happening in FL The last 7 years that pollsters are not able to identify. 70% means it’s more than twice as likely that Nelson was going to win. I did not say it was predicted to be a blowout, just that the odds should be near 50 50
Tying that to the current race, it’s been pointed out here that Bidens 87% mirrors his chances exactly in the tipping point state, which is now PA. If 538 is wrong about PA the next state is FL.
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2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
What Pollsters Have Changed Since 2016 — And What Still Worries Them About 2020
ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES
OCT. 13, 2020, AT 6:00 AM
What Pollsters Have Changed Since 2016 — And What Still Worries Them About 2020
By Geoffrey Skelley and Nathaniel Rakich
f you ask Americans whether they trust the polls, many seem unable to let go of what happened in 2016. Polls taken since then have generally found that a majority of Americans have at least some doubts about what polls say. But as FiveThirtyEight wrote in the run-up to the 2016 election, Donald Trump was always a normal polling error behind Hillary Clinton.
And that’s essentially what happened in 2016: Trump beat his polls by just a few points in just a few states. The presidential polls were, simply, not that off. State-level polling was less accurate, although as editor-in-chief Nate Silver wrote after the election, it was “still within the ‘normal’ range of accuracy.”
That doesn’t mean there weren’t plenty of polling lessons to be gleaned from 2016, though. The importance of education in predicting a person’s political preferences was a big one. And so to better understand those takeaways, we contacted 21 well-known pollsters to find out how they adjusted their methodologies, if at all, and what concerns them most about polling in 2020. In the end, 15 got back to us — a 71 percent response rate that pollsters only dream of in this day and age.1 Here’s what they had to say.
More pollsters are weighting by education and using new ways to reach respondents
Nearly every pollster we talked to has made some kind of modification since the last general election. Some changes were precipitated by what happened in 2016, while others were driven by the challenges facing the polling industry, such as low response rates to phone calls and the greater cost of high-quality polling.
But one thing came up again and again in our interviews: Pollsters told us they were now weighting their samples by education, because one key takeaway from 2016 was just how important someone’s level of educational attainment was in predicting their vote. “In mid-2016, we changed our weights by education, moving the percentage of high school or less respondents up while dropping the college-plus down,” said Jeff Horwitt, a senior vice president at Hart Research, one of the pollsters for the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. It was the middle of the election cycle, but already Horwitt and his team were concerned that they might be underestimating the share of the electorate who didn’t have a four-year college degree, and therefore, missing some of Trump’s support. They were right to be concerned, too. A real problem for the polling industry writ large was the underrepresentation of voters with little or no college education.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-pollsters-have-changed-since-2016-and-what-still-worries-them-about-2020/
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
Pearl Jam bootlegs:
http://wegotshit.blogspot.com
'WILL YOU PLEASE LIKE ME'
BIDEN PULLS AHEAD IN FL PA AZ
OH THISCLOSE
NC NECK-AND-NECK
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/
Libtardaplorable©. And proud of it.
Brilliantati©
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana