Nate Silver 538
Comments
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So the goal was to put a spotlight on Trumps biggest weakness?Lerxst1992 said:Halifax2TheMax said:
The voice of reassurance. Yea, because both sides are the same and 2016 is the same as now. You’re pushing hard for the re-election of a certain outcome.Lerxst1992 said:Halifax2TheMax said:
Hence the current drama.dignin said:Post-debate polls: Biden up by 5 in Florida, 7 in Pennsylvania
Trump's debate performance did him no favors, the New York Times/Siena College surveys show.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/03/polls-biden-leads-trump-in-florida-pennsylvania-after-debate-425843The more I take a look at PA 2016 polling, the more I think Nate is out of his mind calling it 80%.
Take a close look at PA 2016 on RCP from Sept thru the first few days of Oct. Clinton was dominating, even more than Biden is now. She held solid leads thru most of Oct, then the last week or two, there were about five or so polls that had Clinton only up by 2. It tightened in a heartbeat.
How are you voting?I watched 2016 carefully and saw the outcome, and saw how everybody got played. Trumps passionate following among NCWs is very concerning, at least to me.
Granted it’s a stretch he faked covid or got it on purpose to change the dynamic of the election, but one has to wonder on Thursday if trumps internal polling showed the same as NBC/WSJ just released poll:
” President Trump is drawing his weakest voter support of the year in his re-election race following Tuesday’s contentious debate with former Vice President Joe Biden, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.Mr. Biden, the Democratic nominee, leads the president, 53% to 39%, among registered voters in the new poll, which was conducted in the two days following the debate but before news emerged that Mr. Trump had tested positive for Covid-19. Mr. Biden’s 14-point lead compares with an 8-point advantage last month and 11 points in July, which was his largest of the campaign at that time.
The survey finds something rare in Journal/NBC News polling: evidence that an individual news event—the debate—is having a material effect on Mr. Trump’s political standing, at least for now. Significant events in the past, such as Mr. Trump’s impeachment by the House and acquittal by the Senate, had only hardened views of the president, not shifted them.”
Had his internal polling showed this, I’d put nothing past that man to change the election dynamic
I kind of doubt that was the plan.
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Agreed. And I don’t think they would have good polling by Wed to put this diabolical and stupid plan in place, including convincing Christie to admit himself in the hospital.dignin said:
So the goal was to put a spotlight on Trumps biggest weakness?Lerxst1992 said:Halifax2TheMax said:
The voice of reassurance. Yea, because both sides are the same and 2016 is the same as now. You’re pushing hard for the re-election of a certain outcome.Lerxst1992 said:Halifax2TheMax said:
Hence the current drama.dignin said:Post-debate polls: Biden up by 5 in Florida, 7 in Pennsylvania
Trump's debate performance did him no favors, the New York Times/Siena College surveys show.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/03/polls-biden-leads-trump-in-florida-pennsylvania-after-debate-425843The more I take a look at PA 2016 polling, the more I think Nate is out of his mind calling it 80%.
Take a close look at PA 2016 on RCP from Sept thru the first few days of Oct. Clinton was dominating, even more than Biden is now. She held solid leads thru most of Oct, then the last week or two, there were about five or so polls that had Clinton only up by 2. It tightened in a heartbeat.
How are you voting?I watched 2016 carefully and saw the outcome, and saw how everybody got played. Trumps passionate following among NCWs is very concerning, at least to me.
Granted it’s a stretch he faked covid or got it on purpose to change the dynamic of the election, but one has to wonder on Thursday if trumps internal polling showed the same as NBC/WSJ just released poll:
” President Trump is drawing his weakest voter support of the year in his re-election race following Tuesday’s contentious debate with former Vice President Joe Biden, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.Mr. Biden, the Democratic nominee, leads the president, 53% to 39%, among registered voters in the new poll, which was conducted in the two days following the debate but before news emerged that Mr. Trump had tested positive for Covid-19. Mr. Biden’s 14-point lead compares with an 8-point advantage last month and 11 points in July, which was his largest of the campaign at that time.
The survey finds something rare in Journal/NBC News polling: evidence that an individual news event—the debate—is having a material effect on Mr. Trump’s political standing, at least for now. Significant events in the past, such as Mr. Trump’s impeachment by the House and acquittal by the Senate, had only hardened views of the president, not shifted them.”
Had his internal polling showed this, I’d put nothing past that man to change the election dynamic
I kind of doubt that was the plan.0 -
dignin said:
So the goal was to put a spotlight on Trumps biggest weakness?Lerxst1992 said:Halifax2TheMax said:
The voice of reassurance. Yea, because both sides are the same and 2016 is the same as now. You’re pushing hard for the re-election of a certain outcome.Lerxst1992 said:Halifax2TheMax said:
Hence the current drama.dignin said:Post-debate polls: Biden up by 5 in Florida, 7 in Pennsylvania
Trump's debate performance did him no favors, the New York Times/Siena College surveys show.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/03/polls-biden-leads-trump-in-florida-pennsylvania-after-debate-425843The more I take a look at PA 2016 polling, the more I think Nate is out of his mind calling it 80%.
Take a close look at PA 2016 on RCP from Sept thru the first few days of Oct. Clinton was dominating, even more than Biden is now. She held solid leads thru most of Oct, then the last week or two, there were about five or so polls that had Clinton only up by 2. It tightened in a heartbeat.
How are you voting?I watched 2016 carefully and saw the outcome, and saw how everybody got played. Trumps passionate following among NCWs is very concerning, at least to me.
Granted it’s a stretch he faked covid or got it on purpose to change the dynamic of the election, but one has to wonder on Thursday if trumps internal polling showed the same as NBC/WSJ just released poll:
” President Trump is drawing his weakest voter support of the year in his re-election race following Tuesday’s contentious debate with former Vice President Joe Biden, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.Mr. Biden, the Democratic nominee, leads the president, 53% to 39%, among registered voters in the new poll, which was conducted in the two days following the debate but before news emerged that Mr. Trump had tested positive for Covid-19. Mr. Biden’s 14-point lead compares with an 8-point advantage last month and 11 points in July, which was his largest of the campaign at that time.
The survey finds something rare in Journal/NBC News polling: evidence that an individual news event—the debate—is having a material effect on Mr. Trump’s political standing, at least for now. Significant events in the past, such as Mr. Trump’s impeachment by the House and acquittal by the Senate, had only hardened views of the president, not shifted them.”
Had his internal polling showed this, I’d put nothing past that man to change the election dynamic
I kind of doubt that was the plan.Biden already pulled negative ads. Biden now has a ton of new rules he needs to follow against attacking a sick president.
No one is talking about that debate now. Trumps followers will have massive celebrations on the street and on TV on or about Oct20 when trump recovers. If there is a debate, as there likely will be, trump will be seen as sympathetic and Biden will need to be very respectful. Trump has put the spotlight completely in himself and dictated 100% the dynamic of the campaign. All of this is 100% trump.
Consider meadows said they were alarmed at his low oxygen levels. Why did his doctor say the exact opposite? Doesn’t this get trump attention, sympathy and support? The street outside the hospital could be a huge trump rally within the next few days. I do not know for sure but I am smelling a rat here.0 -
“The Oct. 2-3 national opinion poll gave little indication of an outpouring of support for the president beyond Trump’s core group of followers, some of whom have gathered outside Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, where the president has been hospitalized.
Trump has repeatedly dismissed the severity of the pandemic as something that would disappear on its own, chiding Biden as recently as last week for wearing a protective mask, even as the coronavirus infected millions of people and forced businesses and schools to close.
Among those adults who are expected to cast ballots in the Nov. 3 election, the poll found that 51% were backing Biden, while 41% said they were voting for Trump. Another 4% were choosing a third-party candidate and another 4% said they were undecided.
Biden’s 10-point edge over Trump is 1 to 2 points higher than leads Biden posted over the past several weeks, though the increase is still within the poll’s precision limits of plus or minus 5 percentage points.”
...
That’s a new IPSOS poll current to trumps infection news that counters my conspiracy theories
At the very least covid gives trump a solid excuse for losing and a Hail Mary to change the dynamic, it’s the ultimate October surprise
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We wouldn't be talking about the debate anyways. We would be on to the next scandal, they only last about a day in this climate anyways.Lerxst1992 said:dignin said:
So the goal was to put a spotlight on Trumps biggest weakness?Lerxst1992 said:Halifax2TheMax said:
The voice of reassurance. Yea, because both sides are the same and 2016 is the same as now. You’re pushing hard for the re-election of a certain outcome.Lerxst1992 said:Halifax2TheMax said:
Hence the current drama.dignin said:Post-debate polls: Biden up by 5 in Florida, 7 in Pennsylvania
Trump's debate performance did him no favors, the New York Times/Siena College surveys show.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/03/polls-biden-leads-trump-in-florida-pennsylvania-after-debate-425843The more I take a look at PA 2016 polling, the more I think Nate is out of his mind calling it 80%.
Take a close look at PA 2016 on RCP from Sept thru the first few days of Oct. Clinton was dominating, even more than Biden is now. She held solid leads thru most of Oct, then the last week or two, there were about five or so polls that had Clinton only up by 2. It tightened in a heartbeat.
How are you voting?I watched 2016 carefully and saw the outcome, and saw how everybody got played. Trumps passionate following among NCWs is very concerning, at least to me.
Granted it’s a stretch he faked covid or got it on purpose to change the dynamic of the election, but one has to wonder on Thursday if trumps internal polling showed the same as NBC/WSJ just released poll:
” President Trump is drawing his weakest voter support of the year in his re-election race following Tuesday’s contentious debate with former Vice President Joe Biden, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.Mr. Biden, the Democratic nominee, leads the president, 53% to 39%, among registered voters in the new poll, which was conducted in the two days following the debate but before news emerged that Mr. Trump had tested positive for Covid-19. Mr. Biden’s 14-point lead compares with an 8-point advantage last month and 11 points in July, which was his largest of the campaign at that time.
The survey finds something rare in Journal/NBC News polling: evidence that an individual news event—the debate—is having a material effect on Mr. Trump’s political standing, at least for now. Significant events in the past, such as Mr. Trump’s impeachment by the House and acquittal by the Senate, had only hardened views of the president, not shifted them.”
Had his internal polling showed this, I’d put nothing past that man to change the election dynamic
I kind of doubt that was the plan.Biden already pulled negative ads. Biden now has a ton of new rules he needs to follow against attacking a sick president.
No one is talking about that debate now. Trumps followers will have massive celebrations on the street and on TV on or about Oct20 when trump recovers. If there is a debate, as there likely will be, trump will be seen as sympathetic and Biden will need to be very respectful. Trump has put the spotlight completely in himself and dictated 100% the dynamic of the campaign. All of this is 100% trump.
Consider meadows said they were alarmed at his low oxygen levels. Why did his doctor say the exact opposite? Doesn’t this get trump attention, sympathy and support? The street outside the hospital could be a huge trump rally within the next few days. I do not know for sure but I am smelling a rat here.
Do I think they are lying and spinning about what's happening around his health and covid diagnosis?Absolutely. They are trying to salvage a terrible situation politically. But they didn't concoct him being positive. That makes zero sense.0 -
The lies are flowing the other way. And Meadows spent yesterday stepping on his dick, as usual. Politico has an interesting piece on what a shithead Meadows is, and how these lies are his specialty.dignin said:
We wouldn't be talking about the debate anyways. We would be on to the next scandal, they only last about a day in this climate anyways.Lerxst1992 said:dignin said:
So the goal was to put a spotlight on Trumps biggest weakness?Lerxst1992 said:Halifax2TheMax said:
The voice of reassurance. Yea, because both sides are the same and 2016 is the same as now. You’re pushing hard for the re-election of a certain outcome.Lerxst1992 said:Halifax2TheMax said:
Hence the current drama.dignin said:Post-debate polls: Biden up by 5 in Florida, 7 in Pennsylvania
Trump's debate performance did him no favors, the New York Times/Siena College surveys show.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/03/polls-biden-leads-trump-in-florida-pennsylvania-after-debate-425843The more I take a look at PA 2016 polling, the more I think Nate is out of his mind calling it 80%.
Take a close look at PA 2016 on RCP from Sept thru the first few days of Oct. Clinton was dominating, even more than Biden is now. She held solid leads thru most of Oct, then the last week or two, there were about five or so polls that had Clinton only up by 2. It tightened in a heartbeat.
How are you voting?I watched 2016 carefully and saw the outcome, and saw how everybody got played. Trumps passionate following among NCWs is very concerning, at least to me.
Granted it’s a stretch he faked covid or got it on purpose to change the dynamic of the election, but one has to wonder on Thursday if trumps internal polling showed the same as NBC/WSJ just released poll:
” President Trump is drawing his weakest voter support of the year in his re-election race following Tuesday’s contentious debate with former Vice President Joe Biden, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.Mr. Biden, the Democratic nominee, leads the president, 53% to 39%, among registered voters in the new poll, which was conducted in the two days following the debate but before news emerged that Mr. Trump had tested positive for Covid-19. Mr. Biden’s 14-point lead compares with an 8-point advantage last month and 11 points in July, which was his largest of the campaign at that time.
The survey finds something rare in Journal/NBC News polling: evidence that an individual news event—the debate—is having a material effect on Mr. Trump’s political standing, at least for now. Significant events in the past, such as Mr. Trump’s impeachment by the House and acquittal by the Senate, had only hardened views of the president, not shifted them.”
Had his internal polling showed this, I’d put nothing past that man to change the election dynamic
I kind of doubt that was the plan.Biden already pulled negative ads. Biden now has a ton of new rules he needs to follow against attacking a sick president.
No one is talking about that debate now. Trumps followers will have massive celebrations on the street and on TV on or about Oct20 when trump recovers. If there is a debate, as there likely will be, trump will be seen as sympathetic and Biden will need to be very respectful. Trump has put the spotlight completely in himself and dictated 100% the dynamic of the campaign. All of this is 100% trump.
Consider meadows said they were alarmed at his low oxygen levels. Why did his doctor say the exact opposite? Doesn’t this get trump attention, sympathy and support? The street outside the hospital could be a huge trump rally within the next few days. I do not know for sure but I am smelling a rat here.
Do I think they are lying and spinning about what's happening around his health and covid diagnosis?Absolutely. They are trying to salvage a terrible situation politically. But they didn't concoct him being positive. That makes zero sense.0 -
Higher than I expected0 -
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Conspiracy theories or just obvious staged photos?Lerxst1992 said:0 -
It was just a stupid photo op. If it is a charade we will know for sure very soon.Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
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Lol "work"
We know damn well he would have been at some rally0 -
static111 said:
Trump had 2 episodes of "transient drops in his oxygen saturation," his physician says
And "there are frequent ups and downs,"
...
So last night he was regaining strength and 12 hours later, this?0 -
he is signing blank pieces of paper. probably autographs for the staff. hard work for sure."You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry." - Lincoln
"Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."0 -
I wonder when PA moves out of the tippling point category. The model now give Joe his best chance of winning here all year now (82%).www.myspace.com0
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I'm assuming those stacks of papers were blank....or McDonalds menus or something.MayDay10 said:Lol "work"
We know damn well he would have been at some rallywww.myspace.com0 -
Wisconsin would have to slide a bit toward tRUmp in order for PA to move down. Or if Biden gained a bit more spread in PARemember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)
1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
2020: Oakland, Oakland: 2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt20 -
Me too, however I anticipated this to be the primary storyline, as opposed to "Trump beat Covid in just three days!" like his supporters probably thought.PJNB said:
Higher than I expectedwww.myspace.com0 -
I read an article about Pennsylvania being so crooked the electors could go to trump even if he doesn’t win.The Juggler said:I wonder when PA moves out of the tippling point category. The model now give Joe his best chance of winning here all year now (82%).“ In Pennsylvania, three Republican leaders told me they had already discussed the direct appointment of electors among themselves, and one said he had discussed it with Trump’s national campaign.“I’ve mentioned it to them, and I hope they’re thinking about it too,” Lawrence Tabas, the Pennsylvania Republican Party’s chairman, told me. “I just don’t think this is the right time for me to be discussing those strategies and approaches, but [direct appointment of electors] is one of the options. It is one of the available legal options set forth in the Constitution.” He added that everyone’s preference is to get a swift and accurate count. “If the process, though, is flawed, and has significant flaws, our public may lose faith and confidence” in the election’s integrity.
Jake Corman, the state’s Senate majority leader, preferred to change the subject, emphasizing that he hoped a clean vote count would produce a final tally on Election Night. “The longer it goes on, the more opinions and the more theories and the more conspiracies [are] created,” he told me. If controversy persists as the safe-harbor date nears, he allowed, the legislature will have no choice but to appoint electors. “We don’t want to go down that road, but we understand where the law takes us, and we’ll follow the law.””
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/
Scio me nihil scire
There are no kings inside the gates of eden0 -
Yeah shenanigans could def happen if it's decided by less than 1% or something. But tough to do when he loses by like 4%. Fingers crossed!static111 said:
I read an article about Pennsylvania being so crooked the electors could go to trump even if he doesn’t win.The Juggler said:I wonder when PA moves out of the tippling point category. The model now give Joe his best chance of winning here all year now (82%).“ In Pennsylvania, three Republican leaders told me they had already discussed the direct appointment of electors among themselves, and one said he had discussed it with Trump’s national campaign.“I’ve mentioned it to them, and I hope they’re thinking about it too,” Lawrence Tabas, the Pennsylvania Republican Party’s chairman, told me. “I just don’t think this is the right time for me to be discussing those strategies and approaches, but [direct appointment of electors] is one of the options. It is one of the available legal options set forth in the Constitution.” He added that everyone’s preference is to get a swift and accurate count. “If the process, though, is flawed, and has significant flaws, our public may lose faith and confidence” in the election’s integrity.
Jake Corman, the state’s Senate majority leader, preferred to change the subject, emphasizing that he hoped a clean vote count would produce a final tally on Election Night. “The longer it goes on, the more opinions and the more theories and the more conspiracies [are] created,” he told me. If controversy persists as the safe-harbor date nears, he allowed, the legislature will have no choice but to appoint electors. “We don’t want to go down that road, but we understand where the law takes us, and we’ll follow the law.””
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/
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