CoVid19 Virus : Impact on PJ Spring & Summer Tours

bootlegger10

PB11041 said:

bootlegger10 said:

PB11041 said:

washed in black said:

PB11041 said:

YAKIMATSU said:

PJNB said:

YAKIMATSU said:

Off topic. The Olympics are probably 50/50 now.

Says who? 

Logic. Japan is going to be off limits for travel as early as today. 

So, logically you have deduced, that from today until infinity time Japan will be closed for all travel?

I don’t think that’s what @YAKIMATSU is saying at all. I’m a huge fan of The National, and their tour is scheduled to kick off in Japan a day before PJ plays Toronto. Unfortunately fans in Korea are having to sell tickets already due to the fact that upon returning from the show they will be put in quarantine for 14 days and can not afford to do that. I honestly will not be shocked if the National’s  Japan dates are postponed. 

The fact is we just do not know how quickly it will spread. I’m not canceling my trip to Toronto, but I’d be lying if I said that I don’t think there is a possibility that some of the Euro PJ dates could be postponed IF it spreads widely. 

great, but this is not evidence that the Olympics are a 50/50 proposition at this time.  That is a total bullshit estimation based on utter nonsense and fear mongering. 

I agree. What total nonsense.  It isn't like they shut down the entire country's school system. 

What?  Come again?  They did just shut down the country's entire school system?    No.  Really?  They did?  Well, school is not as important than the Olympics. 

So a proactive measure on February 27th is going to least indefinitely.  Got it.

The death rate outside of Hubei Province by the way, in China is 0.4%.  Which again only is qualified by overall reported documented cases.

Who knows.  That is the point.  It is too early to know one way or the other, but there has been significant disruption in supply chains and quarantined so regardless of the severity we are seeing real impacts on a global perspective.

mace1229

bootlegger10 said:

PB11041 said:

washed in black said:

PB11041 said:

YAKIMATSU said:

PJNB said:

YAKIMATSU said:

Off topic. The Olympics are probably 50/50 now.

Says who? 

Logic. Japan is going to be off limits for travel as early as today. 

So, logically you have deduced, that from today until infinity time Japan will be closed for all travel?

I don’t think that’s what @YAKIMATSU is saying at all. I’m a huge fan of The National, and their tour is scheduled to kick off in Japan a day before PJ plays Toronto. Unfortunately fans in Korea are having to sell tickets already due to the fact that upon returning from the show they will be put in quarantine for 14 days and can not afford to do that. I honestly will not be shocked if the National’s  Japan dates are postponed. 

The fact is we just do not know how quickly it will spread. I’m not canceling my trip to Toronto, but I’d be lying if I said that I don’t think there is a possibility that some of the Euro PJ dates could be postponed IF it spreads widely. 

great, but this is not evidence that the Olympics are a 50/50 proposition at this time.  That is a total bullshit estimation based on utter nonsense and fear mongering. 

I agree. What total nonsense.  It isn't like they shut down the entire country's school system. 

What?  Come again?  They did just shut down the country's entire school system?    No.  Really?  They did?  Well, school is not as important than the Olympics. 

Japan doesn't care about school anyway, we all know that.

PB11041

PJPAT said:

It will unfortunately.   Hopefully hold off a bit but seems to be spreading faster everyday.

20 days to Toronto!!!  2% chance isn’t much but more than I would like.  I can’t live without Pearl Jam so I’m going.

the 2% is based on the extreme problem that existed in Hubei Province. What keeps getting completely overshadowed is that  the mortality rate outside of that province in China has been 0.4%.    And that doesn't take into account all the people who were sick, never reported it, and recovered.  

PB11041

RoleModelsinBlood31 said:

Just wear a fucking condom, it’s not that hard.

mattsavard

We now clearly have community spread in Northern California with a patient confirmed on the following timeline: 
Confirmed Feb 26th after CDC finally agreed to test him
Came into Hospital quite sick on Feb 19th. 
Given what we know about incubation / timeline to symptoms was likely infected sometime between Feb ~5th and ~15th. 

This means open transmission is likely to have been going for for 2-3 weeks in northern california. (Anyone ducking this reality is clueless, IMO). Similar reports out of NY State with a Hotel Maid that services many Chinese toursts. Has been gravely ill with COVID-type symptoms for over a week and CDC refuses to test her.

IMO the reason we are not seeing more confirmed tests is our CDC is refusing to test to confirm... NOT because there are not people bouncing around the country spreading this virus right now. 

At this point, based on what we've seen in several other countries, I think we're less than a week from a significant surge of confirmed cases (assuming our CDC actually does their job and starts testing people. 

I know someone will get butthurt by my saying this but I've been ahead of the curve on this since it started:
My .02: I am now officially expecting at least some shows of the the Summer tour to be cancelled (maybe 10% chance of full tour happening). I'm anticipating at least some shows of the Spring tour to be cancelled (maybe 25% chance of full tour happening?) 

If Ottawa/Quebec City happen, the GF and I will be in PPE. 

If I'm proven wrong, I'll be ecstatic. I've got thousands tied up in this. I don't think I am. 

pjsteelerfan

Thankfully I have both read and watched World War Z, so I feel I am prepared for what is obviously about to happen

raindog80

pjsteelerfan said:

Thankfully I have both read and watched World War Z, so I feel I am prepared for what is obviously about to happen

  

mcgruff10

Well if they do cancel I hope they tell us soon.  

Red Mosqito

mattsavard said:

Some quotes from the CDC today: 

"Disruption to everyday life might be severe," says Dr. Nancy Messonnier. She said she told her children this morning, "While I didn't think they were at risk right now, we as a family ought to be preparing for significant disruption to our lives.”

 "The data over the last week and the spread in other countries has certainly raised our level of concern and certainly raised our level of expectation that we are going to have community spread here."  
Outlook for coronavirus in the U.S.: CDC is "preparing as if we are going to see community spread in the near term," says Dr. Messonnier on media call. 
U.S. CDC: "We can have community spread in the United States and have it be reasonably mild, we can have community spread in the U.S. and have it be very severe. So that's what we don't completely know yet." 
U.S. CDC: "We're asking folks in every sector, as well as people within their families, to start planning for this, because as we've seen from the recent countries that have had community spread, when it hit in those countries, it has moved quite rapidly." 
Audio of the briefing = https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0225-cdc-telebriefing-covid-19-update.mp3

So now the CDC is expecting community spread In North America, and preparing for it near term. They're telling people to begin preparing for this, and to be ready for possibility of significant disruption to their lives. 

I'm not saying any shows will definitely cancelled, however IF community spread gets fairly widespread as the CDC is now preparing for, we absolutely will see cancelation of events involving mass gatherings in affected communities. IF THAT HAPPENS, There is a good chance that will include PJ shows. 

Fingers crossed things slow down over in Europe, and our excellent medical systems in North America are able to keep spread to a minimum.... It's been a long time since I've been this excited for a run of shows, and have thousands tied up in travel/show expenses. 

I hate to be a downer, but there was just a reported case of the virus in CA that was labeled community spread as the infected individual did not travel abroad or have any direct contact with another infected person. I’m not panicking or keeping myself locked in my house, but this case is a stark reminder that we should all be aware and not take things too lightly. Wash those hands people and if you’re feeling sick....get checked out and stay home!!

kaw753

I have a vacation planned to the Osaka region in a few weeks. I am not concerned about contracting the virus while there, I am concerned that everything will be closed or shutdown as a preventative measure. 

given2fly23

I really don't think the Tokyo Olympics being cancelled is that far fetched at all. Would be a breeding ground for infection and then those people all travel back home. 

"JUST IN: Facebook cancels its annual developer conference amid coronavirus outbreak"

https://t.co/KbWvBcsM1A

Vedd Hedd

Pence is on it....so its all good. 

jeffbr

Vedd Hedd said:

Pence is on it....so its all good. 

Yup. He'll just pray it away. Thoughts and prayers, everyone.

Poncier

jeffbr said:

Vedd Hedd said:

Pence is on it....so its all good. 

Yup. He'll just pray it away. Thoughts and prayers, everyone.

And he can enlist Mother's help.

mattsavard

Red Mosqito said:

I hate to be a downer, but there was just a reported case of the virus in CA that was labeled community spread as the infected individual did not travel abroad or have any direct contact with another infected person. I’m not panicking or keeping myself locked in my house, but this case is a stark reminder that we should all be aware and not take things too lightly. Wash those hands people and if you’re feeling sick....get checked out and stay home!!

yep i had just posted about it a few posts up :( Not good news 

mattsavard

Capitol Alert @CapitolAlert

Gov. Newsom says 28 people in California have tested positive for Coronavirus. About 8,400 people are being monitored because of their travel. "We knew this was inevitable," he said.

Here we go... :( 

given2fly23

Meanwhile, the admin only cares about politics and power:

"Government health officials and scientists will have to clear statements about the coronavirus outbreak with the office of Vice President Mike Pence, in an effort to tighten the White House’s control of messaging about the virus"

PJNB

I honestly think parts of the spring tour would be more in jeopardy than anything this summer. 

mattsavard

Facebook cancels largest annual conference (F8). 

This was scheduled on San Jose in May. 

mace1229

Vedd Hedd said:

Pence is on it....so its all good. 

He's sending the Space Force to wipe out the virus.

washed in black

Poncier said:

jeffbr said:

Vedd Hedd said:

Pence is on it....so its all good. 

Yup. He'll just pray it away. Thoughts and prayers, everyone.

And he can enlist Mother's help.

He did so well preventing new HIV infections in Indiana..... oh wait....

mattsavard

PJNB said:

I honestly think parts of the spring tour would be more in jeopardy than anything this summer. 

Why do you think that? Not attacking just curious. 

China is over 2 months into the infection cycle and the only reason cases are (allegedly) dropping is because everyone is quarantined and all public events are banned. As soon as people begin mingling it will flare up again. I seriously doubt affected areas in China have public events/gatherings anytime soon. That is asking for another huge flareup (See, the Korean church that has an 85% positive rate on nearly 1000 folks tested). 

This virus is EXTREMELY contagious. Hell, some folks are suddenly testing positive again after being declared recovered. 

mace1229

mattsavard said:

PJNB said:

I honestly think parts of the spring tour would be more in jeopardy than anything this summer. 

Why do you think that? Not attacking just curious. 

China is over 2 months into the infection cycle and the only reason cases are (allegedly) dropping is because everyone is quarantined and all public events are banned. As soon as people begin mingling it will flare up again. I seriously doubt affected areas in China have public events/gatherings anytime soon. That is asking for another huge flareup (See, the Korean church that has an 85% positive rate on nearly 1000 folks tested). 

This virus is EXTREMELY contagious. Hell, some folks are suddenly testing positive again after being declared recovered. 

I didnt hear that. Patients are getting this virus a second time?

mattsavard

mace1229 said:

I didnt hear that. Patients are getting this virus a second time?

Yep : https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/27/japanese-woman-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-for-second-time

Coronavirus: Japanese woman tests positive for second time

Tour guide had been given all-clear but then developed a sore throat and chest pains

Cases of second positive tests have been reported in China. The outbreak has spread rapidly and widely, infecting about 80,000 people globally and killing nearly 2,800, the vast majority in mainland China.

“Once you have the infection, it could remain dormant and with minimal symptoms, and then you can get an exacerbation if it finds its way into the lungs,” said Prof Philip Tierno at New York University’s school of medicine. He said much remained unknown about the virus. “I’m not certain that this is not biphasic, like anthrax,” he said, meaning the disease might appear to go away before recurring.

Ninetytworules

Fuck the corona virus! It’s the Dos Equis virus that’ll get ya. 

mace1229

mattsavard said:

mace1229 said:

I didnt hear that. Patients are getting this virus a second time?

Yep : https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/27/japanese-woman-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-for-second-time

Coronavirus: Japanese woman tests positive for second time

Tour guide had been given all-clear but then developed a sore throat and chest pains

Cases of second positive tests have been reported in China. The outbreak has spread rapidly and widely, infecting about 80,000 people globally and killing nearly 2,800, the vast majority in mainland China.

“Once you have the infection, it could remain dormant and with minimal symptoms, and then you can get an exacerbation if it finds its way into the lungs,” said Prof Philip Tierno at New York University’s school of medicine. He said much remained unknown about the virus. “I’m not certain that this is not biphasic, like anthrax,” he said, meaning the disease might appear to go away before recurring.

Bummer.

YAKIMATSU

mattsavard said:

If I'm proven wrong, I'll be ecstatic. I've got thousands tied up in this. I don't think I am. 

Right with you.  Hoping for the best, but logic is not very positive.  I mean, do we have an NBA finals with no spectators? Seriously.

PJNB

mattsavard said:

PJNB said:

I honestly think parts of the spring tour would be more in jeopardy than anything this summer. 

Why do you think that? Not attacking just curious. 

China is over 2 months into the infection cycle and the only reason cases are (allegedly) dropping is because everyone is quarantined and all public events are banned. As soon as people begin mingling it will flare up again. I seriously doubt affected areas in China have public events/gatherings anytime soon. That is asking for another huge flareup (See, the Korean church that has an 85% positive rate on nearly 1000 folks tested). 

This virus is EXTREMELY contagious. Hell, some folks are suddenly testing positive again after being declared recovered. 

When was the last time something like this went into the summer months? Maybe it is just me being hopeful.

given2fly23

PJNB said:

mattsavard said:

PJNB said:

I honestly think parts of the spring tour would be more in jeopardy than anything this summer. 

Why do you think that? Not attacking just curious. 

China is over 2 months into the infection cycle and the only reason cases are (allegedly) dropping is because everyone is quarantined and all public events are banned. As soon as people begin mingling it will flare up again. I seriously doubt affected areas in China have public events/gatherings anytime soon. That is asking for another huge flareup (See, the Korean church that has an 85% positive rate on nearly 1000 folks tested). 

This virus is EXTREMELY contagious. Hell, some folks are suddenly testing positive again after being declared recovered. 

When was the last time something like this went into the summer months? Maybe it is just me being hopeful.

Sadly, we've never had an administration this incompetent or corrupt.  I have zero faith in them telling us the truth, listening to experts or taking the steps necessary to contain this.

mattsavard

PJNB said: 

When was the last time something like this went into the summer months? Maybe it is just me being hopeful.

Very valid point... The low numbers in Singapore could be reflective of their incredible tracking/testing/quarantine efforts (on par with South Korea's)... or it COULD be that it's been in the 80sF there. 

This strain is very unique, but you're 100% right that Coronavirus generally do poorly in hot/humid environments. Fingers crossed!