CoVid19 Virus : Impact on PJ Spring & Summer Tours
mattsavard
Posts: 518
With things now starting to show signs of hitting open transmission in a couple countries outside a China, is anyone else getting nervous that this could impact the tour?
As of right now this is a total non-issue in North America, however increasing number of experts are openly concerned we will see a significant number of cases over in the US and Canada.
It goes without saying that open transmission would be a huge issue in GA, but also a problem in other seating areas as well as mingling in concourse and queuing.
Not to mention the slim possibility of the band deciding not to put themselves or their fans/crew at risk and cancelling outright.
I don't think it's something to freak out over as of yet, but bears watching. Especially considering travel insurance generally doesn't cover show cancellations or "fear of pandemic".
Thoughts?
Memphis '94 / Charlotte '96 / Birmingham '98 / Knoxville '98 / Memphis '00 / Nashville '00 / Nashville '03 / St. Louis '04 / Nashville Ryman N1 '09 (EV solo) / Nashville Ryman N2 '09 (EV solo) / Memphis '09 (EV solo) / New Orleans Jazzfest '10 / St Louis '10 / Memphis '12 (EV solo) / Memphis '14 / Boston Fenway N1 '16 / Boston Fenway N2 '16 / Chicago Wrigley N1 '18 / Chicago Wrigley N2 '18 / Ottawa '22 / Quebec City '22 / Nashville '22 / St Louis '22
Strong 2nd Amendment supporter and advocate targeted methods of reducing gun violence, sans-infringement.
Strong 2nd Amendment supporter and advocate targeted methods of reducing gun violence, sans-infringement.
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2009 - Sydney Brisbane Melbourne
2011 - EV Sydney 1, 2, 3 & Canberra
2014 - EV Sydney 1, 2, 3
2020 - Hamilton, Baltimore, New York
Strong 2nd Amendment supporter and advocate targeted methods of reducing gun violence, sans-infringement.
"...I changed by not changing at all..."
As a health care provider what worries me is flu.... San Diego flu deaths are double last year at this point.
But both are viruses.... spread easily by people who go out in public and shouldn't.
"...I changed by not changing at all..."
However, COVID-19 is very new and is on it's way. Head of CDC said it will be spread freely here this year, and all they can do is slow it down.
REG FLU: 26 Million Infected : 250k Hospitalized (1%) - 14k Dead (0.05%)
IF COVID-19 Infects the same 26 Million : 3.9 Million Hospitalized (15%) - 1.3 Million Critical (organ failure) - Half a Million Dead (2%)
Now, maybe 26 Million won't be infected... but if the CDC expects it to be transmitted freely, and it's much more contageous than the regular flu... then there's not much to base that stance on.
There's a chance we will have a vaccine by the time it gets here, or some retroviral drug will help. There's a chance the hospitalization/Critical/Death rate goes down. Lots of reasons to be hopeful. But as it stands right now, to say the Flu is a bigger concern than this virus, big picture, is a very myopic.
Thankfully it generally takes ~3 weeks to go from public transfer to full on epidemic (quarantines and shutdown/cancellation of most services. Japan has just reached public transfer and they're already telling folks to avoid public events. I suspect within 2-3 weeks they wil have full on quarantine/closures like China. They've already started cancelling or massively reducing events, like the famous Toyko Marathon.
ABOUT THE SHOWS:
I'm hoping it doesn't hit public transmission here for another month or two, but once it does IMO we're looking at a ticking clock for how long before shows and events start getting cancelled. Many companies are canceling events already. Shows were cancelled during the threat of SARS (which this has already blown past)... there IS precedent, and reason to keep watch and consider backup plans.
At the shows, If it IS public by then, PLEASE don't go if you have the flu or are symptomatic. We all love PJ and don't want to miss them, but the risk of hospitalizing or even possibly killing fellow jammers sounds crazy to say but that's a risk you'd be exposing other fans to.
At the shows, love some of the suggestions here. Avoid touching eyes/mouth. Avoid touching hand rails and other folks as much as possible. Wash/Sanitize frequently. Some fans will likely wear masks regardless of how bad / not bad... try to be supportive/cool to em.
Fingers crossed this won't be an issue until after the shows (or at all). Certainly a chance of that! But, it can't hurt to look into contingencies.
Cheers!
Strong 2nd Amendment supporter and advocate targeted methods of reducing gun violence, sans-infringement.
Yes, right now in the US, it is not a big deal and should be more worried about the flu. The question is about a month from now when the US tour starts, 4 months from now when the Euro tour starts, and 7-8 months when the fall US tour starts.
We all hope it is like the more recent scares that didn't amount to much in the US but only time will tell. Right now I'm not too concerned but if 1,000 people in the US have it a month from now I'll be at least thinking about it.
Cheers man.
Strong 2nd Amendment supporter and advocate targeted methods of reducing gun violence, sans-infringement.
Strong 2nd Amendment supporter and advocate targeted methods of reducing gun violence, sans-infringement.
there are people who likely have been infected, did not report it, recovered and it is not charted in the mix at all.
There is a reason that places like the CDC and WHO would not dare make such ridiculous projections, because they know they do not have all the data, they can only chart what they have but understand there is data they simply do not have on cases that did not evolve to critical in nature.
Also, I don't know why you are highlighting organ failure as if it is specific to COVID-19, that is how you die of the flu mostly too, organ failure from a deeply aggressive and compromised immune system.
http://www.hi5sports.org/ (Sports Program for Kids with Disabilities)
http://www.livefootsteps.org/user/?usr=3652
Yes there are many coronaviruses, but this strain is new to humans from what I've heard. Would love to see a link correcting me if ya got one!
With regards to the serious/failure/death rates I provided, they were direct from the WHO speech today. I assume you saw it? If you have issues with those numbers, feel free to take it up with them. Until proven otherwise I'll take their word over an anon user on a forum.
With regards to the hard numbers, obviously those are not official projects. I applied the WHO issued rates to the same sample size as the flu. I was pretty clear about that, and that other factors could reduce that.
I'm highlighting the organ failure because the WHO did in their speech today. They found it important enough to highlight so I did as well. Also the mechanism of death (systemic sepsis, organ failure due to cytokine storm, and respiratory failure) is NOT the same as the traditional flu. This has been clarified in several googlable medical studies and there's no need to do so here.
In the context of Pearl Jam's live shows, all that's really relevant is that the CDC has stated widespread transmission is coming to the US... It's just a matter of how much time they can buy.
Selfishly, in the context of this forum... I'm openly hoping it's long enough to not interfere with this epic tour we're about to kick off.
Cheers!
Strong 2nd Amendment supporter and advocate targeted methods of reducing gun violence, sans-infringement.
What if ed's sick?
even if I look and act really crazy.