2024 US Election - Predictions

Spiritual_Chaos
Spiritual_Chaos Posts: 31,721
in A Moving Train
Here is mine:


"Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
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Comments

  • njhaley1
    njhaley1 Posts: 972
    I wish I had the disposition to treat this like a March madness bracket. I'll just say that I'm cautiously optimistic we're not fucked. 
  • brianlux
    brianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 43,846
    Anybody got a couple Valium I could bum?
    "It's a sad and beautiful world"
    -Roberto Benigni

  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,588
    Spiritual_Chaos said:
    Here is mine:



    GA NC do not look promising at all. On this map that leaves the entire outcome to IA, and I would not put that much faith in that poll as KH was surprisingly ahead by three, but well under 50% - this close to Election Day not exactly an optimistic poll. WI should cover for IA however.


    Trump can lock it up early with winnin three, GA NC PA. He looks strong in the first two, which IMO leaves it all up to PA and Josh bringing it home.

    excellent topic SC.
  • lastexitlondon
    lastexitlondon Posts: 15,215
    brianlux said:
    Anybody got a couple Valium I could bum?
    I do. I don't think they will get there in time


    this song is meant to be called i got shit,itshould be called i got shit tickets-hartford 06 -
  • njhaley1
    njhaley1 Posts: 972
    edited November 2024
    I'm perplexed with AZ. This is the state that elected Sinema, Kelly, Hobbs, and seems to be poised to snub Lake yet again. We're clearly purple, and the reason for turning our noses against Trump and Lake haven't  changed, they've only intensified. Fair number of signs on public roadways, but around me I get a feeling it's the same jackass putting them up. No Reich parades this year, either.

    But we're an independent lot, as evidenced by the 2020 outcomes across the ballot. 
    Post edited by njhaley1 on
  • brianlux
    brianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 43,846
    lastexitlondon said:
    brianlux said:
    Anybody got a couple Valium I could bum?
    I do. I don't think they will get there in time

    LOL, thank you , my friend!  :hug:
    "It's a sad and beautiful world"
    -Roberto Benigni

  • brianlux
    brianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 43,846
    njhaley1 said:
    I'm perplexed with AZ. This is the state that elected Sinema, Kelly, Hobbs, and seems to be poised to snub Lake yet again. We're clearly purple, and the reason for turning our noses against Trump and Lake haven't  changed, they've only intensified. Fair number of signs on public roadways, but around me I get a feeling it's the same jackass putting them up. No Reich parades this year, either.

    But we're an independent lot, as evidenced by the 2020 outcomes across the ballot. 

    I often have wondered if AZ might someday turn toward Prudohian anarchy.  Probably a reflection of having read a lot of Edward Abbey and Charles Bowden.  In fact, I just started re-reading Abbey's Good News (third time) for if not inspiration, at least a little distraction.
    "It's a sad and beautiful world"
    -Roberto Benigni

  • mickeyrat
    mickeyrat Posts: 45,638
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Spiritual_Chaos said:
    Here is mine:



    GA NC do not look promising at all. On this map that leaves the entire outcome to IA, and I would not put that much faith in that poll as KH was surprisingly ahead by three, but well under 50% - this close to Election Day not exactly an optimistic poll. WI should cover for IA however.


    Trump can lock it up early with winnin three, GA NC PA. He looks strong in the first two, which IMO leaves it all up to PA and Josh bringing it home.

    excellent topic SC.

    someone should tell the fuckstick campaign then. if nc is in the bag, why so much time there these past couple weeks?
    _____________________________________SIGNATURE________________________________________________

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  • Spiritual_Chaos
    Spiritual_Chaos Posts: 31,721
    Put down money on Nevada also. So need to update.
    "Mostly I think that people react sensitively because they know you’ve got a point"
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,599
    edited November 2024
    mickeyrat said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Spiritual_Chaos said:
    Here is mine:



    GA NC do not look promising at all. On this map that leaves the entire outcome to IA, and I would not put that much faith in that poll as KH was surprisingly ahead by three, but well under 50% - this close to Election Day not exactly an optimistic poll. WI should cover for IA however.


    Trump can lock it up early with winnin three, GA NC PA. He looks strong in the first two, which IMO leaves it all up to PA and Josh bringing it home.

    excellent topic SC.

    someone should tell the fuckstick campaign then. if nc is in the bag, why so much time there these past couple weeks?
    NC is not in the bag. None of the swing states are.

    Stein has a 15 point lead for governor. If that election plays out like that, I don't see how Trump doesn't get dragged down with the black nazi. 
    www.myspace.com
  • Indifference
    Indifference Posts: 2,785
    Trump 297-241

    SHOW COUNT: (170) 1990's=3, 2000's=53, 2010/20's=114, US=124, CAN=15, Europe=20 ,New Zealand=4, Australia=5
    Mexico=1, Colombia=1 



  • Tim Simmons
    Tim Simmons Posts: 10,450

  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,599
    edited November 2024
    Fuck it.

    I think pollsters have overestimated Trump this time around in their attempt to not underestimate him. I am also not buying that pre msg Trump surge that was bolstered by nonstop right leaning outfits flooding the zone, the way they did with their '22 mid term "red wave."

    Gender gap will be huge and will benefit Harris. 
    Puerto Ricans give Harris PA and the black Nazi drags Trump down with him in NC. GA is gravy. 


    Post edited by The Juggler on
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  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,588
    mickeyrat said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Spiritual_Chaos said:
    Here is mine:



    GA NC do not look promising at all. On this map that leaves the entire outcome to IA, and I would not put that much faith in that poll as KH was surprisingly ahead by three, but well under 50% - this close to Election Day not exactly an optimistic poll. WI should cover for IA however.


    Trump can lock it up early with winnin three, GA NC PA. He looks strong in the first two, which IMO leaves it all up to PA and Josh bringing it home.

    excellent topic SC.

    someone should tell the fuckstick campaign then. if nc is in the bag, why so much time there these past couple weeks?

    FS has been fully aware he can clinch with GA NC then PA. I said he looks strong (for a swing state) on the first two, not that it’s in the bag. Under this theory there are only three swing states that matter, that can guarantee a democratic loss.
  • Gern Blansten
    Gern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,919
    I can see it being a Harris blow out or trump barely winning...I just don't know
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
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  • darwinstheory
    darwinstheory LaPorte, IN Posts: 7,710
    Gern Blansten said:
    I can see it being a Harris blow out or trump barely winning...I just don't know
    I'm right there with you. I feel like the seeds of doubt FS has been planting indicate that he knows it will be a blowout. 

    Conversely, I cannot get 2016 out of my head....only the Cubs also won then. 
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • brianlux
    brianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 43,846
    These lines comes to my mind this morning:

    Predicting a delay on landing
    I predict I'll have a drink

    -Paul Westerberg, "Portland"

    "It's a sad and beautiful world"
    -Roberto Benigni

  • gimmesometruth27
    gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 25,077
    harris wins in a blowout. i have never been more confident in my life.
    "You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry."  - Lincoln

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."
  • OnWis97
    OnWis97 St. Paul, MN Posts: 5,731
    Indifference said:
    Trump 297-241
    That seems about right. The Dems tend to fumble close states and polls have shown that like 40% of people won't vote for a woman for president.

    I think the Dems would have had a really good chance if Biden had announced in 2023 that he won't seek a second term, leading to an actual party nomination process. The criticism that she's never received more than a couple percent in a nominating process is valid.
    1995 Milwaukee   1998 Alpine, Alpine     2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston     2004 Boston, Boston     2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty)     2011 Alpine, Alpine    2013 Wrigley     2014 St. Paul     2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley     2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley     2021 Asbury Park     2022 St Louis     2023 Austin, Austin   2024 Napa, Wrigley, Wrigley   2025 Nashville (II)
  • gimmesometruth27
    gimmesometruth27 St. Fuckin Louis Posts: 25,077
    OnWis97 said:
    Indifference said:
    Trump 297-241
    That seems about right. The Dems tend to fumble close states and polls have shown that like 40% of people won't vote for a woman for president.

    I think the Dems would have had a really good chance if Biden had announced in 2023 that he won't seek a second term, leading to an actual party nomination process. The criticism that she's never received more than a couple percent in a nominating process is valid.
    back then she had not been veep for 4 years, so that point is absolutely moot today.
    "You can tell the greatness of a man by what makes him angry."  - Lincoln

    "Well, you tell him that I don't talk to suckas."

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