Nate Silver 538

Lerxst1992 said:

OnWis97 said:

lastexit78 said:

Relying on unreliable voters to win you an election is never a great strategy. Worked wonderfully in ‘08 with an electric candidate with energy and universal appeal. Not sure it can work with Biden, hope I’m wrong.

This has been the difference since at least Reagan.  He replaced Carter, who was an ineffective president elected because Ford pardoned Nixon. Mondale? Meh (though NOBODY was going to be Reagan). Dukakis? LOL.  Then came Bill Clinton; young, energetic, played the sax on Arsenio. Gore? Smart but stiff and boring. Kerry? Meh.  Then came Obama; electric, as you say. Hillary? Worse than "meh." Absolutely hated. Biden? Meh.

Republicans are the default winners for a few reasons. They don't lose presidential elections; "electric" Democrats go in and take them.  Of course, the way the courts, media and Senate are going to look for the next few years, even that may not be possible any more.

They have turned us into the enemy. We can’t win electoral votes losing rural counties in rural states in rural America 70-30.

This is the fact that I wanted to hear from pollsters and forecasters like Nate, whose job is to tell us what will happen in an election. I got shouted down a lot.

Nates problem, and all the other forecasters like Charlie Cook, is they treat this like it’s statistics, and the truth is that it’s culture, one that we don’t fully understand in blue states.

That is their only platform.  That libs are the enemy and must be defeated at all cost.  They also have no qualms about outright making shit up and spreading it to their cult followers.  Dems are hampered by trying to stick to the truth.  

OnWis97 said:

lastexit78 said:

Relying on unreliable voters to win you an election is never a great strategy. Worked wonderfully in ‘08 with an electric candidate with energy and universal appeal. Not sure it can work with Biden, hope I’m wrong.

This has been the difference since at least Reagan.  He replaced Carter, who was an ineffective president elected because Ford pardoned Nixon. Mondale? Meh (though NOBODY was going to be Reagan). Dukakis? LOL.  Then came Bill Clinton; young, energetic, played the sax on Arsenio. Gore? Smart but stiff and boring. Kerry? Meh.  Then came Obama; electric, as you say. Hillary? Worse than "meh." Absolutely hated. Biden? Meh.

Republicans are the default winners for a few reasons. They don't lose presidential elections; "electric" Democrats go in and take them.  Of course, the way the courts, media and Senate are going to look for the next few years, even that may not be possible any more.

A once in a century pandemic and a country in an overall death spiral might be the exception to all these rules. I believe Trump would have won by a wide margin minus covid, The fact that he still might pull this off is honestly shocking and should be a huge wake up call to Democrats going forward. Win or lose Dems have to find a way to attract rural voters and get young voters to actually cast their ballots. Good luck with that, minus running a celebrity or some other ridiculous ploy.

pjhawks said:

It’s coming down to us in PA,  gonna take a few days

Not necessarily, per 538-

“Fox News, which has its own decision desk and exit poll data, has called Arizona for Biden and Florida for Trump. They also called the Arizona Senate for Kelly. We have seen no other news organization call Arizona, which may mean this call is premature. Keep an eye on other outlets to see if they wind up backing up or conflicting with Fox.“


Losing AZ puts some pressure on Trump.

bootleg said:

Lerxst1992 said:

OnWis97 said:

lastexit78 said:

Relying on unreliable voters to win you an election is never a great strategy. Worked wonderfully in ‘08 with an electric candidate with energy and universal appeal. Not sure it can work with Biden, hope I’m wrong.

This has been the difference since at least Reagan.  He replaced Carter, who was an ineffective president elected because Ford pardoned Nixon. Mondale? Meh (though NOBODY was going to be Reagan). Dukakis? LOL.  Then came Bill Clinton; young, energetic, played the sax on Arsenio. Gore? Smart but stiff and boring. Kerry? Meh.  Then came Obama; electric, as you say. Hillary? Worse than "meh." Absolutely hated. Biden? Meh.

Republicans are the default winners for a few reasons. They don't lose presidential elections; "electric" Democrats go in and take them.  Of course, the way the courts, media and Senate are going to look for the next few years, even that may not be possible any more.

They have turned us into the enemy. We can’t win electoral votes losing rural counties in rural states in rural America 70-30.

This is the fact that I wanted to hear from pollsters and forecasters like Nate, whose job is to tell us what will happen in an election. I got shouted down a lot.

Nates problem, and all the other forecasters like Charlie Cook, is they treat this like it’s statistics, and the truth is that it’s culture, one that we don’t fully understand in blue states.

That is their only platform.  That libs are the enemy and must be defeated at all cost.  They also have no qualms about outright making shit up and spreading it to their cult followers.  Dems are hampered by trying to stick to the truth.  

false.  the narrative from the left was obliterated after russia collusiion went down the tubes.  no one believes anything out of the left's mouths anymore after that political stunt.  a president was impeached over a phone call where both parties involved said there was no issue, and we even had the transcript lol.. by a party who then puts up a candidate who literally is lamer than clinton and did worse than trumps phone call in ukraine. he barely squeeked by the primaries, then chooses a vp running mate who was hated by her peers. stats have showed that even with fb and twitter's obvious suppression, hunter's laptop spewing the goods on joe was a massively damaging event.  It's not "libs must be defeated at all costs" as you make it out to be, more like most folks just see through the bs and know what the left has been trying since clinton lost, and they see right through it.  Get some legs, stop the "science is real" story while constantly cancel culturing and witholding facts, and people will get behind the party again.  its just too obviously fake.

bootleg said:

lastexit78 said:

OnWis97 said:

lastexit78 said:

Relying on unreliable voters to win you an election is never a great strategy. Worked wonderfully in ‘08 with an electric candidate with energy and universal appeal. Not sure it can work with Biden, hope I’m wrong.

This has been the difference since at least Reagan.  He replaced Carter, who was an ineffective president elected because Ford pardoned Nixon. Mondale? Meh (though NOBODY was going to be Reagan). Dukakis? LOL.  Then came Bill Clinton; young, energetic, played the sax on Arsenio. Gore? Smart but stiff and boring. Kerry? Meh.  Then came Obama; electric, as you say. Hillary? Worse than "meh." Absolutely hated. Biden? Meh.

Republicans are the default winners for a few reasons. They don't lose presidential elections; "electric" Democrats go in and take them.  Of course, the way the courts, media and Senate are going to look for the next few years, even that may not be possible any more.

A once in a century pandemic and a country in an overall death spiral might be the exception to all these rules. I believe Trump would have won by a wide margin minus covid, The fact that he still might pull this off is honestly shocking and should be a huge wake up call to Democrats going forward. Win or lose Dems have to find a way to attract rural voters and get young voters to actually cast their ballots. Good luck with that, minus running a celebrity or some other ridiculous ploy.

Sadly I think that’s where we’re at.  Going to have to run a celeb like Oprah.  Seriously though how does he get this much support?  He fucking said maybe we can inject bleach to kill Covid.  I could could go on with all of the other things that would normally disqualify someone from being President but we all know the rest.  I don’t know if we can recover from this as a country.  We’re in the golden age of idiocy.

thats part of the issue- you fell for the media's spin once again.  so taken up by your political desires, you actually think when he said that that he meant to do it. Sarcasm used to be a thing we all understood, but in the age of media headlines, you immediately assumed he meant to inject bleach!  No offense- but the general public, it's something like 65%, don't actually read the article or watch the clip, they just read the headline, re-tweet it, and tell all their friends how dumb trump is.  Funny to watch him troll the media, because he's good at it, he knows how they'll print it and how slackjaws will eat it up.

RoleModelsinBlood31 said:

bootleg said:

Lerxst1992 said:

OnWis97 said:

lastexit78 said:

Relying on unreliable voters to win you an election is never a great strategy. Worked wonderfully in ‘08 with an electric candidate with energy and universal appeal. Not sure it can work with Biden, hope I’m wrong.

This has been the difference since at least Reagan.  He replaced Carter, who was an ineffective president elected because Ford pardoned Nixon. Mondale? Meh (though NOBODY was going to be Reagan). Dukakis? LOL.  Then came Bill Clinton; young, energetic, played the sax on Arsenio. Gore? Smart but stiff and boring. Kerry? Meh.  Then came Obama; electric, as you say. Hillary? Worse than "meh." Absolutely hated. Biden? Meh.

Republicans are the default winners for a few reasons. They don't lose presidential elections; "electric" Democrats go in and take them.  Of course, the way the courts, media and Senate are going to look for the next few years, even that may not be possible any more.

They have turned us into the enemy. We can’t win electoral votes losing rural counties in rural states in rural America 70-30.

This is the fact that I wanted to hear from pollsters and forecasters like Nate, whose job is to tell us what will happen in an election. I got shouted down a lot.

Nates problem, and all the other forecasters like Charlie Cook, is they treat this like it’s statistics, and the truth is that it’s culture, one that we don’t fully understand in blue states.

That is their only platform.  That libs are the enemy and must be defeated at all cost.  They also have no qualms about outright making shit up and spreading it to their cult followers.  Dems are hampered by trying to stick to the truth.  

false.  the narrative from the left was obliterated after russia collusiion went down the tubes.  no one believes anything out of the left's mouths anymore after that political stunt.  a president was impeached over a phone call where both parties involved said there was no issue, and we even had the transcript lol.. by a party who then puts up a candidate who literally is lamer than clinton and did worse than trumps phone call in ukraine. he barely squeeked by the primaries, then chooses a vp running mate who was hated by her peers. stats have showed that even with fb and twitter's obvious suppression, hunter's laptop spewing the goods on joe was a massively damaging event.  It's not "libs must be defeated at all costs" as you make it out to be, more like most folks just see through the bs and know what the left has been trying since clinton lost, and they see right through it.  Get some legs, stop the "science is real" story while constantly cancel culturing and witholding facts, and people will get behind the party again.  its just too obviously fake.

I really don’t want to relitigate this. The left didn’t have over a hundred secret meetings with Russian spies and  agents and cover it up and lie about it,. The left did not ask Putin help by committing felonies against an american candidate. I could go on but let’s stop and look forward.

Gern Blansten said:

So except for having FL listed as light blue the 538 predictions were spot on eh? 

That must be a joke. They were wrong in a few key states. Their 10% scenario can still easily happen. And it’s not like something wild happened, the votes in thousands of counties are a carbon copy of last time. And 538 and the polls came up with some Fantasia world that was no where close to reality.