Nate Silver 538

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  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,599
    Try not to get too excited
    Try not to get too excited
    Try not to get too excited
    Try not to get too excited
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  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,418
    Gern Blansten said:


    Not sure how much good news this is as Broward was +36 D for Clinton. Nationwide Nate’s projection is Biden 348 electoral votes, and Biden’s most likely win is over 410 EVs. Nates reputation has a lot riding on the next six hours. If we don’t know by 10.30 EST, Nates projection is likely significantly off and unfortunately we have a nail biter.

     I really want Nate to be perfect tonight, but what I want the most from a forecaster is balanced science.
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,599
    edited November 2020
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Gern Blansten said:


    Not sure how much good news this is as Broward was +36 D for Clinton. Nationwide Nate’s projection is Biden 348 electoral votes, and Biden’s most likely win is over 410 EVs. Nates reputation has a lot riding on the next six hours. If we don’t know by 10.30 EST, Nates projection is likely significantly off and unfortunately we have a nail biter.

     I really want Nate to be perfect tonight, but what I want the most from a forecaster is balanced science.
    "Nate's reputation?"

    lol

    Why? I think his reputation over the years is pretty much already settled except for those who think 30% and 10% = 0%.
    www.myspace.com
  • Gern Blansten
    Gern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,745
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Gern Blansten said:


    Not sure how much good news this is as Broward was +36 D for Clinton. Nationwide Nate’s projection is Biden 348 electoral votes, and Biden’s most likely win is over 410 EVs. Nates reputation has a lot riding on the next six hours. If we don’t know by 10.30 EST, Nates projection is likely significantly off and unfortunately we have a nail biter.

     I really want Nate to be perfect tonight, but what I want the most from a forecaster is balanced science.
    Nate's point was that the GOP needed to make up ground...and between 3p-4p they lost ground
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,418
    The Juggler said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Gern Blansten said:


    Not sure how much good news this is as Broward was +36 D for Clinton. Nationwide Nate’s projection is Biden 348 electoral votes, and Biden’s most likely win is over 410 EVs. Nates reputation has a lot riding on the next six hours. If we don’t know by 10.30 EST, Nates projection is likely significantly off and unfortunately we have a nail biter.

     I really want Nate to be perfect tonight, but what I want the most from a forecaster is balanced science.
    "Nate's reputation?"

    lol

    Why? I think his reputation over the years is pretty much already settled except for those who think 30% and 10% = 0%.

    To call a nail biter when you’ve predicted 348 EVs, and he missed the same exact phenomenon as last time?

    I really hope he is right.
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,418
    Good news, Michigan now saying they expect most votes to be counted tonight, so it will not take days as the count is going much more efficiently than previously thought. Hopefully some good news out of the mitten before the day ends.
  • static111
    static111 Posts: 5,211
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    igotid88 said:
    More people have early voted in Texas than have voted in previous elections. Especially among minorities. 
    I hope we go blue.  
    Man,  what a day that would make it.  I would owe you multiple rounds of beer, since I didn't take you seriously when you said that before.  I think Georgia goes before Texas,  but man... dream come true
    Not to go through the whole working class thing from yesterday, but my optimism has been that the majority of people I interact with are blue collar types and they are done with that BS that is Trump.  The BLM movement has also opened up a lot of people to organizing and lookjj oooohbg beyond the binary red/blue political construct.  I know several Rs and multiple non-voters that have decided to register this cycle that are casting or have casted ballots for Biden.  Granted I’m in Austin,  but the same is True for everyone I know in Houston.  Time will tell.  I’m hoping that a Blue Texas would reward us with a PJ date for the rescheduled tour.
    I was thinking about your comments a few weeks ago where you had to keep your mouth shut about Biden for fear it would lose work. When I wrote that,  I had you in mind. 
    Yeah well I am currently working in national security.  Which is a small margin of blue collar what have you.  Most of my friends work construction, food service, health care etc. which is a much larger population.  As far as the natsec crowd...no helping those paranoid maniacs
    Scio me nihil scire

    There are no kings inside the gates of eden
  • static111
    static111 Posts: 5,211
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    igotid88 said:
    More people have early voted in Texas than have voted in previous elections. Especially among minorities. 
    I hope we go blue.  
    Man,  what a day that would make it.  I would owe you multiple rounds of beer, since I didn't take you seriously when you said that before.  I think Georgia goes before Texas,  but man... dream come true
    Not to go through the whole working class thing from yesterday, but my optimism has been that the majority of people I interact with are blue collar types and they are done with that BS that is Trump.  The BLM movement has also opened up a lot of people to organizing and lookjj oooohbg beyond the binary red/blue political construct.  I know several Rs and multiple non-voters that have decided to register this cycle that are casting or have casted ballots for Biden.  Granted I’m in Austin,  but the same is True for everyone I know in Houston.  Time will tell.  I’m hoping that a Blue Texas would reward us with a PJ date for the rescheduled tour.
    I was thinking about your comments a few weeks ago where you had to keep your mouth shut about Biden for fear it would lose work. When I wrote that,  I had you in mind. 
    I can’t believe I had to be a shy Biden voter.  Good news is I go on my last gig with those guys next week and when I get back home I am starting a QC/QA position at a semi conductor factory here in town.  It will be good to leave the Defense industry behind
    Scio me nihil scire

    There are no kings inside the gates of eden
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,599
    Lerxst1992 said:
    The Juggler said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    Gern Blansten said:


    Not sure how much good news this is as Broward was +36 D for Clinton. Nationwide Nate’s projection is Biden 348 electoral votes, and Biden’s most likely win is over 410 EVs. Nates reputation has a lot riding on the next six hours. If we don’t know by 10.30 EST, Nates projection is likely significantly off and unfortunately we have a nail biter.

     I really want Nate to be perfect tonight, but what I want the most from a forecaster is balanced science.
    "Nate's reputation?"

    lol

    Why? I think his reputation over the years is pretty much already settled except for those who think 30% and 10% = 0%.

    To call a nail biter when you’ve predicted 348 EVs, and he missed the same exact phenomenon as last time?

    I really hope he is right.
    Dude. Come on. How many times have we been through this?
    www.myspace.com
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,981
    static111 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    igotid88 said:
    More people have early voted in Texas than have voted in previous elections. Especially among minorities. 
    I hope we go blue.  
    Man,  what a day that would make it.  I would owe you multiple rounds of beer, since I didn't take you seriously when you said that before.  I think Georgia goes before Texas,  but man... dream come true
    Not to go through the whole working class thing from yesterday, but my optimism has been that the majority of people I interact with are blue collar types and they are done with that BS that is Trump.  The BLM movement has also opened up a lot of people to organizing and lookjj oooohbg beyond the binary red/blue political construct.  I know several Rs and multiple non-voters that have decided to register this cycle that are casting or have casted ballots for Biden.  Granted I’m in Austin,  but the same is True for everyone I know in Houston.  Time will tell.  I’m hoping that a Blue Texas would reward us with a PJ date for the rescheduled tour.
    I was thinking about your comments a few weeks ago where you had to keep your mouth shut about Biden for fear it would lose work. When I wrote that,  I had you in mind. 
    I can’t believe I had to be a shy Biden voter.  Good news is I go on my last gig with those guys next week and when I get back home I am starting a QC/QA position at a semi conductor factory here in town.  It will be good to leave the Defense industry behind
    Congrats and good luck
  • static111
    static111 Posts: 5,211
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    static111 said:
    igotid88 said:
    More people have early voted in Texas than have voted in previous elections. Especially among minorities. 
    I hope we go blue.  
    Man,  what a day that would make it.  I would owe you multiple rounds of beer, since I didn't take you seriously when you said that before.  I think Georgia goes before Texas,  but man... dream come true
    Not to go through the whole working class thing from yesterday, but my optimism has been that the majority of people I interact with are blue collar types and they are done with that BS that is Trump.  The BLM movement has also opened up a lot of people to organizing and lookjj oooohbg beyond the binary red/blue political construct.  I know several Rs and multiple non-voters that have decided to register this cycle that are casting or have casted ballots for Biden.  Granted I’m in Austin,  but the same is True for everyone I know in Houston.  Time will tell.  I’m hoping that a Blue Texas would reward us with a PJ date for the rescheduled tour.
    I was thinking about your comments a few weeks ago where you had to keep your mouth shut about Biden for fear it would lose work. When I wrote that,  I had you in mind. 
    I can’t believe I had to be a shy Biden voter.  Good news is I go on my last gig with those guys next week and when I get back home I am starting a QC/QA position at a semi conductor factory here in town.  It will be good to leave the Defense industry behind
    Congrats and good luck
    Thanks. It will be good to get back to working steady in an industry that has politics that swing more my way.
    Scio me nihil scire

    There are no kings inside the gates of eden
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,418
    Pasco County FL looking good for Biden. Cuts into trumps 16 lead
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,418
    edited November 2020
    St John's county fl 100% in per npr

    Trump +22. Last time +32
    Post edited by Lerxst1992 on
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,981
    Lerxst1992 said:
    St John's county fl 100% in per npr

    Trump +22. Last time +32
    Miami dade no good
  • dignin
    dignin Posts: 9,478
    mrussel1 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    St John's county fl 100% in per npr

    Trump +22. Last time +32
    Miami dade no good
    Oh yeah? What are the numbers?
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,418
    trump gained 100k votes in Miami. HTF is that possible.  Smells fishy
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,981
    Lerxst1992 said:
    trump gained 100k votes in Miami. HTF is that possible.  Smells fishy
    Older Cubans absolutely like Trump. 
  • josevolution
    josevolution Posts: 32,113
    mrussel1 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    St John's county fl 100% in per npr

    Trump +22. Last time +32
    Miami dade no good
    Those Cubans not sure why they like the Covidiot 
    jesus greets me looks just like me ....
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,981
    dignin said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    St John's county fl 100% in per npr

    Trump +22. Last time +32
    Miami dade no good
    Oh yeah? What are the numbers?
    He'll probably only win by 10 points.  He needs to make that up in whiter areas
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 43,163
    Miami Dade is under reporting mail in ballots. Something definitely fishy.
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