Nate Silver 538

Lerxst1992

F Me In The Brain said:

Jesus.  People ready to jump off the roof at 6:35am eastern.

Not sure if that’s a put down or not but it’s certainly an interesting way to disguise it.

I am in a deep blue state and just waited an hour plus to vote.  Many will say that’s nothing as waits are longer in swing states, but I have voted here for 25 years, thru the Obama surge turnout and all the other years, and never ever saw a line, let alone one that extended nearly half a mile.

To pretend there is any way to forecast this phenomenon whether pro trump or con, seems unrealistic. 

mrussel1

Lerxst1992 said:

F Me In The Brain said:

Jesus.  People ready to jump off the roof at 6:35am eastern.

Not sure if that’s a put down or not but it’s certainly an interesting way to disguise it.

I am in a deep blue state and just waited an hour plus to vote.  Many will say that’s nothing as waits are longer in swing states, but I have voted here for 25 years, thru the Obama surge turnout and all the other years, and never ever saw a line, let alone one that extended nearly half a mile.

To pretend there is any way to forecast this phenomenon whether pro trump or con, seems unrealistic. 

I think you have to look at the party registrations to get an idea.  High turnout has always favored democrats.

The Juggler

mrussel1 said:

Lerxst1992 said:

F Me In The Brain said:

Jesus.  People ready to jump off the roof at 6:35am eastern.

Not sure if that’s a put down or not but it’s certainly an interesting way to disguise it.

I am in a deep blue state and just waited an hour plus to vote.  Many will say that’s nothing as waits are longer in swing states, but I have voted here for 25 years, thru the Obama surge turnout and all the other years, and never ever saw a line, let alone one that extended nearly half a mile.

To pretend there is any way to forecast this phenomenon whether pro trump or con, seems unrealistic. 

I think you have to look at the party registrations to get an idea.  High turnout has always favored democrats.

Confidence levels remain high...

HughFreakingDillon

Lerxst1992 said:

tbergs said:

I can't wait for the election to be over just to quit hearing the doom and gloom of the Debbie downers around here.

Better include CNN and MSNBC and all their guests. All Dem leaning guests seem very nervous. Except Charlie Cook. 

Chris Hayes said it best, Democrats are nervous as hell and Republicans have swagger 100% they are winning. Without a doubt this mirrors everyone I know personally. All this while polls say Dems are likely to sweep congress and presidency.

 Very bizarre moment in American history

I haven't seen any of that. mind you, maybe I don't consume as much MSM as you do, but the guests I've seen all either have Biden as a shoe-in or cautiously optimistic. 

static111

igotid88 said:

More people have early voted in Texas than have voted in previous elections. Especially among minorities. 

I hope we go blue.  

mrussel1

static111 said:

igotid88 said:

More people have early voted in Texas than have voted in previous elections. Especially among minorities. 

I hope we go blue.  

Man,  what a day that would make it.  I would owe you multiple rounds of beer, since I didn't take you seriously when you said that before.  I think Georgia goes before Texas,  but man... dream come true

The Juggler

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

igotid88 said:

More people have early voted in Texas than have voted in previous elections. Especially among minorities. 

I hope we go blue.  

Man,  what a day that would make it.  I would owe you multiple rounds of beer, since I didn't take you seriously when you said that before.  I think Georgia goes before Texas,  but man... dream come true

@Ledbetterman10

I think I feel more confident about Texas than I do Florida at the moment

Ledbetterman10

The Juggler said:

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

igotid88 said:

More people have early voted in Texas than have voted in previous elections. Especially among minorities. 

I hope we go blue.  

Man,  what a day that would make it.  I would owe you multiple rounds of beer, since I didn't take you seriously when you said that before.  I think Georgia goes before Texas,  but man... dream come true

@Ledbetterman10

I think I feel more confident about Texas than I do Florida at the moment

Whoa. Can you imagine if that’s how Trump loses? Winning the swing states he needs and losing Texas? 

Is it the high amount of early voting that has you confident in Texas?

static111

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

igotid88 said:

More people have early voted in Texas than have voted in previous elections. Especially among minorities. 

I hope we go blue.  

Man,  what a day that would make it.  I would owe you multiple rounds of beer, since I didn't take you seriously when you said that before.  I think Georgia goes before Texas,  but man... dream come true

Not to go through the whole working class thing from yesterday, but my optimism has been that the majority of people I interact with are blue collar types and they are done with that BS that is Trump.  The BLM movement has also opened up a lot of people to organizing and lookjj oooohbg beyond the binary red/blue political construct.  I know several Rs and multiple non-voters that have decided to register this cycle that are casting or have casted ballots for Biden.  Granted I’m in Austin,  but the same is True for everyone I know in Houston.  Time will tell.  I’m hoping that a Blue Texas would reward us with a PJ date for the rescheduled tour.

PJNB

Ledbetterman10 said:

The Juggler said:

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

igotid88 said:

More people have early voted in Texas than have voted in previous elections. Especially among minorities. 

I hope we go blue.  

Man,  what a day that would make it.  I would owe you multiple rounds of beer, since I didn't take you seriously when you said that before.  I think Georgia goes before Texas,  but man... dream come true

@Ledbetterman10

I think I feel more confident about Texas than I do Florida at the moment

Whoa. Can you imagine if that’s how Trump loses? Winning the swing states he needs and losing Texas? 

Is it the high amount of early voting that has you confident in Texas?

Its gotta be. The magic number seems to be 12 million. Over Biden is likely to win under Trump has got TX. 

The Juggler

Ledbetterman10 said:

The Juggler said:

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

igotid88 said:

More people have early voted in Texas than have voted in previous elections. Especially among minorities. 

I hope we go blue.  

Man,  what a day that would make it.  I would owe you multiple rounds of beer, since I didn't take you seriously when you said that before.  I think Georgia goes before Texas,  but man... dream come true

@Ledbetterman10

I think I feel more confident about Texas than I do Florida at the moment

Whoa. Can you imagine if that’s how Trump loses? Winning the swing states he needs and losing Texas? 

Is it the high amount of early voting that has you confident in Texas?

Yeah. That Harris County ruling yesterday was a big deal.

I mean I guess it's still a long shot, but it would not surprise me if Trump won Florida and even PA (god forbid!) but Biden stuns everyone with Texas and this thing is called before 11 tonight. 

mrussel1

static111 said:

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

igotid88 said:

More people have early voted in Texas than have voted in previous elections. Especially among minorities. 

I hope we go blue.  

Man,  what a day that would make it.  I would owe you multiple rounds of beer, since I didn't take you seriously when you said that before.  I think Georgia goes before Texas,  but man... dream come true

Not to go through the whole working class thing from yesterday, but my optimism has been that the majority of people I interact with are blue collar types and they are done with that BS that is Trump.  The BLM movement has also opened up a lot of people to organizing and lookjj oooohbg beyond the binary red/blue political construct.  I know several Rs and multiple non-voters that have decided to register this cycle that are casting or have casted ballots for Biden.  Granted I’m in Austin,  but the same is True for everyone I know in Houston.  Time will tell.  I’m hoping that a Blue Texas would reward us with a PJ date for the rescheduled tour.

I was thinking about your comments a few weeks ago where you had to keep your mouth shut about Biden for fear it would lose work. When I wrote that,  I had you in mind. 

Ledbetterman10

Yeah it’s over tonight if Biden wins Texas. So, will the Texas ballots be all counted by tonight like Florida, or will they begin counting today like Pennsylvania? I’m guessing the former if they already know the amount of ballots cast in Texas 

Lerxst1992

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

igotid88 said:

More people have early voted in Texas than have voted in previous elections. Especially among minorities. 

I hope we go blue.  

Man,  what a day that would make it.  I would owe you multiple rounds of beer, since I didn't take you seriously when you said that before.  I think Georgia goes before Texas,  but man... dream come true

Not to go through the whole working class thing from yesterday, but my optimism has been that the majority of people I interact with are blue collar types and they are done with that BS that is Trump.  The BLM movement has also opened up a lot of people to organizing and lookjj oooohbg beyond the binary red/blue political construct.  I know several Rs and multiple non-voters that have decided to register this cycle that are casting or have casted ballots for Biden.  Granted I’m in Austin,  but the same is True for everyone I know in Houston.  Time will tell.  I’m hoping that a Blue Texas would reward us with a PJ date for the rescheduled tour.

I was thinking about your comments a few weeks ago where you had to keep your mouth shut about Biden for fear it would lose work. When I wrote that,  I had you in mind. 

The Dems will have electoral college challenges until if and when Texas turns blue (as the big dem states are +25 D and the big R states are closer to 50/50). That will be the day the GOP will need to change their strategy from obstructing the vote to policies that are better.

lets hope that f*cking day is today.

PJNB

Ledbetterman10 said:

Yeah it’s over tonight if Biden wins Texas. So, will the Texas ballots be all counted by tonight like Florida, or will they begin counting today like Pennsylvania? I’m guessing the former if they already know the amount of ballots cast in Texas 

"Most Texas counties report their early vote tallies pretty soon after the polls close at 7 p.m. The in-person Election Day count across the state usually comes in later, especially since Texas voters can cast a ballot if they are in line when polling sites close at 7 p.m. The polling analysis website FiveThirtyEight estimates that Texas should get most of its tallying done on Tuesday, but the counting might go into Wednesday or Thursday."

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/11/02/texas-count-votes/

Lerxst1992

RCP became trash this year and many networks continue to use them as a good source. AMT gang here was all over that. Good article backing that up.

The Independent: Joe Biden’s lead vanishes in four swing states, according to poll aggregator.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-polls-swing-states-realclearpolitics-2020-election-b1565007.html

Gern Blansten

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323732513852981256

MayDay10

Is there any indication on how these NPA/I Voters swing to historically in Florida?

Gern Blansten

MayDay10 said:

Is there any indication on how these NPA/I Voters swing to historically in Florida?

Silver commented on that...didn't want to commit.  But I saw a reference to 49/41 Biden separately.  

But I think the atmosphere would suggest more would vote Biden but who knows....crazy shit.

I do know that tRump world is not happy with GOP turnout in PA today.  The FL #s seem to suggest something similar.

Gern Blansten

https://twitter.com/Amy_Siskind/status/1323720932247175168