Nate Silver 538

1…5758606263…75

Comments

  • static111
    static111 Posts: 5,209
    4.7 mil to 4.5 mil Fla in Bidens favor with 78% of precincts reporting
    Scio me nihil scire

    There are no kings inside the gates of eden
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,403
    mrussel1 said:
    dignin said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    St John's county fl 100% in per npr

    Trump +22. Last time +32
    Miami dade no good
    Oh yeah? What are the numbers?
    He'll probably only win by 10 points.  He needs to make that up in whiter areas

    To swing Miami from +30 Hillary to only +9 Biden is something I would expect the pollsters and forecasters to have been able to figure out in advance. That’s a pickup of about 150,000 votes for trump in a historically liberal city with excellent turnout.
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,981
    edited November 2020
    Lerxst1992 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    dignin said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    St John's county fl 100% in per npr

    Trump +22. Last time +32
    Miami dade no good
    Oh yeah? What are the numbers?
    He'll probably only win by 10 points.  He needs to make that up in whiter areas

    To swing Miami from +30 Hillary to only +9 Biden is something I would expect the pollsters and forecasters to have been able to figure out in advance. That’s a pickup of about 150,000 votes for trump in a historically liberal city with excellent turnout.
    They did.  People were talking about him losing Cuban vote and the black male vote being down there.  This isn't shocking.  
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,403
    mrussel1 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    dignin said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    St John's county fl 100% in per npr

    Trump +22. Last time +32
    Miami dade no good
    Oh yeah? What are the numbers?
    He'll probably only win by 10 points.  He needs to make that up in whiter areas

    To swing Miami from +30 Hillary to only +9 Biden is something I would expect the pollsters and forecasters to have been able to figure out in advance. That’s a pickup of about 150,000 votes for trump in a historically liberal city with excellent turnout.
    They did.  People were talking about him losing Cuban vote and the black male vote being down there.  This isn't shocking.  

    FL is likely a solid red state going forward then.
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,981
    Lerxst1992 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    dignin said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    St John's county fl 100% in per npr

    Trump +22. Last time +32
    Miami dade no good
    Oh yeah? What are the numbers?
    He'll probably only win by 10 points.  He needs to make that up in whiter areas

    To swing Miami from +30 Hillary to only +9 Biden is something I would expect the pollsters and forecasters to have been able to figure out in advance. That’s a pickup of about 150,000 votes for trump in a historically liberal city with excellent turnout.
    They did.  People were talking about him losing Cuban vote and the black male vote being down there.  This isn't shocking.  

    FL is likely a solid red state going forward then.
    Yes.  The fact that we lost the senate and governor there in a heavy democratic year is all you need to know. Biden didn't campaign much there. 
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,403
    edited November 2020
    mrussel1 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    mrussel1 said:
    dignin said:
    mrussel1 said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    St John's county fl 100% in per npr

    Trump +22. Last time +32
    Miami dade no good
    Oh yeah? What are the numbers?
    He'll probably only win by 10 points.  He needs to make that up in whiter areas

    To swing Miami from +30 Hillary to only +9 Biden is something I would expect the pollsters and forecasters to have been able to figure out in advance. That’s a pickup of about 150,000 votes for trump in a historically liberal city with excellent turnout.
    They did.  People were talking about him losing Cuban vote and the black male vote being down there.  This isn't shocking.  

    FL is likely a solid red state going forward then.
    Yes.  The fact that we lost the senate and governor there in a heavy democratic year is all you need to know. Biden didn't campaign much there. 
    They just sent Obama to FL twice and no one bothered to go to AZ in the last week. While we are looking at 538 saying Biden has a 70% chance to win FL and flipping GA , NY times is saying, per 538 GA is now 78% chance to trump, and NBC reporting Biden does not have enough votes in Houston to flip TX possibly.

    Charlie Cooks 1980 prediction is looking foolish and some buffoon named Lerx warning here the last month is looking spot on. Nail biter not a route. If OH and NC don’t flip Biden likely is under 300 EV total and a real nail biter.
  • OnWis97
    OnWis97 St. Paul, MN Posts: 5,696
    Wait, so 2016 is being repeated? Didn’t see that coming.
    1995 Milwaukee     1998 Alpine, Alpine     2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston     2004 Boston, Boston     2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty)     2011 Alpine, Alpine     
    2013 Wrigley     2014 St. Paul     2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley     2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley     2021 Asbury Park     2022 St Louis     2023 Austin, Austin
    2024 Napa, Wrigley, Wrigley
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,403
    OnWis97 said:
    Wait, so 2016 is being repeated? Didn’t see that coming.

    My throat and fingers hurt telling everyone for a month it’s not a 90/10 race. FL TX GA are not flipping.

    NC is best bet to keep Dems away from the rust belt firewall. Maybe OH but it’s a little shaky. 8% a lot of ground to flip.


  • bootleg
    bootleg Posts: 1,209
    The fact that it’s already close is depressing enough.  To have this many people that want more Trump is just disturbing.
  • darwinstheory
    darwinstheory LaPorte, IN Posts: 7,545
    OnWis97 said:
    Wait, so 2016 is being repeated? Didn’t see that coming.
    I'm right there with you, just much less vocal about it.
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • jerparker20
    jerparker20 St. Paul, MN Posts: 2,529
    I think Nate needs to find a new line of work...
  • brianlux
    brianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 43,781
    Man, I would not want some of you on my team if I was an MLB manager.  It's not even time for seventh inning stretch. 
    "It's a sad and beautiful world"
    -Roberto Benigni

  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 8,403
    What the heck is up with VA?
  • Ledbetterman10
    Ledbetterman10 Posts: 17,016
    jerparker20 said:
    I think Nate needs to find a new line of work...
    What I can't stand most about that nerd is the cop-out of using all his data to come to a conclusion of what percentage chance each candidate has of winning. His final percentages in 2016 was Trump had a 29% chance of winning. Then he could hide behind "Hey, we said he had a chance" when he won. This time, Trump's chance of winning was even lower, and if Trump pulls it out, Silver could hide behind that again. "Hey, we said he had a chance." Compile all your data, make a prediction of one or the other, and live with being right or wrong.


    2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2, 2021: Sea. Hear. Now. 2022: Camden, 2024: Philly 2, 2025: Pittsburgh 1

    Pearl Jam bootlegs:
    http://wegotshit.blogspot.com
  • bootleg
    bootleg Posts: 1,209
    The early indication so far is that the poling is once again off and possibly by larger margins than 2016.  Biden is outperforming in some places but you can already tell it’s going to be a nail biter.
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,981
    Lerxst1992 said:
    What the heck is up with VA?
    Nothing.  They've only counted 11% of early vote. 
  • Ledbetterman10
    Ledbetterman10 Posts: 17,016
    edited November 2020
    Wrong thread
    2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2, 2021: Sea. Hear. Now. 2022: Camden, 2024: Philly 2, 2025: Pittsburgh 1

    Pearl Jam bootlegs:
    http://wegotshit.blogspot.com
  • JimmyV
    JimmyV Boston's MetroWest Posts: 19,613
    This. Fucking. Country. 
    ___________________________________________

    "...I changed by not changing at all..."
  • lastexit78
    lastexit78 Posts: 618
    Relying on unreliable voters to win you an election is never a great strategy. Worked wonderfully in ‘08 with an electric candidate with energy and universal appeal. Not sure it can work with Biden, hope I’m wrong.
    06/22/95, 11/04/95, 11/15/97, 07/16/98, 10/30/99, 10/30/00, 10/31/00, 10/20/01, 10/21/01, 12/08/02, 06/01/03, 06/06/03, 10/25/03, 10/26/03, 09/28/04, 03/18/05, 09/01/05, 07/15/06, 07/16/06, 07/18/06, 07/22/06, 07/23/06, 10/21/06, 10/22/06, 08/28/09, 09/21/09, 09/22/09, 05/20/10, 05/21/10, 10/24/10, 11/26/13, 12/06/13, 06/28/14, 10/26/14, 07/10/18, 08/10/18, 10/02/21, 
  • OnWis97
    OnWis97 St. Paul, MN Posts: 5,696
    edited November 2020
    lastexit78 said:
    Relying on unreliable voters to win you an election is never a great strategy. Worked wonderfully in ‘08 with an electric candidate with energy and universal appeal. Not sure it can work with Biden, hope I’m wrong.
    This has been the difference since at least Reagan.  He replaced Carter, who was an ineffective president elected because Ford pardoned Nixon. Mondale? Meh (though NOBODY was going to be Reagan). Dukakis? LOL.  Then came Bill Clinton; young, energetic, played the sax on Arsenio. Gore? Smart but stiff and boring. Kerry? Meh.  Then came Obama; electric, as you say. Hillary? Worse than "meh." Absolutely hated. Biden? Meh.

    Republicans are the default winners for a few reasons. They don't lose presidential elections; "electric" Democrats go in and take them.  Of course, the way the courts, media and Senate are going to look for the next few years, even that may not be possible any more.

    1995 Milwaukee     1998 Alpine, Alpine     2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston     2004 Boston, Boston     2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty)     2011 Alpine, Alpine     
    2013 Wrigley     2014 St. Paul     2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley     2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley     2021 Asbury Park     2022 St Louis     2023 Austin, Austin
    2024 Napa, Wrigley, Wrigley

Categories