Nate Silver 538

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  • static111static111 Posts: 4,896
    mrussel1 said:
    Congrats and good luck
    Thanks. It will be good to get back to working steady in an industry that has politics that swing more my way.
    Scio me nihil scire

    There are no kings inside the gates of eden
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,352
    Pasco County FL looking good for Biden. Cuts into trumps 16 lead
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,352
    edited November 2020
    St John's county fl 100% in per npr

    Trump +22. Last time +32
    Post edited by Lerxst1992 on
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 30,566
    St John's county fl 100% in per npr

    Trump +22. Last time +32
    Miami dade no good
  • dignindignin Posts: 9,478
    mrussel1 said:
    Miami dade no good
    Oh yeah? What are the numbers?
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,352
    trump gained 100k votes in Miami. HTF is that possible.  Smells fishy
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 30,566
    trump gained 100k votes in Miami. HTF is that possible.  Smells fishy
    Older Cubans absolutely like Trump. 
  • josevolutionjosevolution Posts: 30,867
    mrussel1 said:
    Miami dade no good
    Those Cubans not sure why they like the Covidiot 
    jesus greets me looks just like me ....
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 30,566
    dignin said:
    Oh yeah? What are the numbers?
    He'll probably only win by 10 points.  He needs to make that up in whiter areas
  • Miami Dade is under reporting mail in ballots. Something definitely fishy.
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  • static111static111 Posts: 4,896
    4.7 mil to 4.5 mil Fla in Bidens favor with 78% of precincts reporting
    Scio me nihil scire

    There are no kings inside the gates of eden
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,352
    mrussel1 said:
    He'll probably only win by 10 points.  He needs to make that up in whiter areas

    To swing Miami from +30 Hillary to only +9 Biden is something I would expect the pollsters and forecasters to have been able to figure out in advance. That’s a pickup of about 150,000 votes for trump in a historically liberal city with excellent turnout.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 30,566
    edited November 2020

    To swing Miami from +30 Hillary to only +9 Biden is something I would expect the pollsters and forecasters to have been able to figure out in advance. That’s a pickup of about 150,000 votes for trump in a historically liberal city with excellent turnout.
    They did.  People were talking about him losing Cuban vote and the black male vote being down there.  This isn't shocking.  
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,352
    mrussel1 said:
    They did.  People were talking about him losing Cuban vote and the black male vote being down there.  This isn't shocking.  

    FL is likely a solid red state going forward then.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 30,566

    FL is likely a solid red state going forward then.
    Yes.  The fact that we lost the senate and governor there in a heavy democratic year is all you need to know. Biden didn't campaign much there. 
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,352
    edited November 2020
    mrussel1 said:
    Yes.  The fact that we lost the senate and governor there in a heavy democratic year is all you need to know. Biden didn't campaign much there. 
    They just sent Obama to FL twice and no one bothered to go to AZ in the last week. While we are looking at 538 saying Biden has a 70% chance to win FL and flipping GA , NY times is saying, per 538 GA is now 78% chance to trump, and NBC reporting Biden does not have enough votes in Houston to flip TX possibly.

    Charlie Cooks 1980 prediction is looking foolish and some buffoon named Lerx warning here the last month is looking spot on. Nail biter not a route. If OH and NC don’t flip Biden likely is under 300 EV total and a real nail biter.
  • OnWis97OnWis97 St. Paul, MN Posts: 5,482
    Wait, so 2016 is being repeated? Didn’t see that coming.
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  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,352
    OnWis97 said:
    Wait, so 2016 is being repeated? Didn’t see that coming.

    My throat and fingers hurt telling everyone for a month it’s not a 90/10 race. FL TX GA are not flipping.

    NC is best bet to keep Dems away from the rust belt firewall. Maybe OH but it’s a little shaky. 8% a lot of ground to flip.


  • bootlegbootleg Posts: 1,187
    The fact that it’s already close is depressing enough.  To have this many people that want more Trump is just disturbing.
  • darwinstheorydarwinstheory LaPorte, IN Posts: 7,132
    OnWis97 said:
    Wait, so 2016 is being repeated? Didn’t see that coming.
    I'm right there with you, just much less vocal about it.
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • jerparker20jerparker20 St. Paul, MN Posts: 2,527
    I think Nate needs to find a new line of work...
  • brianluxbrianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain. Posts: 43,152
    Man, I would not want some of you on my team if I was an MLB manager.  It's not even time for seventh inning stretch. 
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  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,352
    What the heck is up with VA?
  • I think Nate needs to find a new line of work...
    What I can't stand most about that nerd is the cop-out of using all his data to come to a conclusion of what percentage chance each candidate has of winning. His final percentages in 2016 was Trump had a 29% chance of winning. Then he could hide behind "Hey, we said he had a chance" when he won. This time, Trump's chance of winning was even lower, and if Trump pulls it out, Silver could hide behind that again. "Hey, we said he had a chance." Compile all your data, make a prediction of one or the other, and live with being right or wrong.


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  • bootlegbootleg Posts: 1,187
    The early indication so far is that the poling is once again off and possibly by larger margins than 2016.  Biden is outperforming in some places but you can already tell it’s going to be a nail biter.
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 30,566
    What the heck is up with VA?
    Nothing.  They've only counted 11% of early vote. 
  • Ledbetterman10Ledbetterman10 Posts: 16,959
    edited November 2020
    Wrong thread
    2000: Camden 1, 2003: Philly, State College, Camden 1, MSG 2, Hershey, 2004: Reading, 2005: Philly, 2006: Camden 1, 2, East Rutherford 1, 2007: Lollapalooza, 2008: Camden 1, Washington D.C., MSG 1, 2, 2009: Philly 1, 2, 3, 4, 2010: Bristol, MSG 2, 2011: PJ20 1, 2, 2012: Made In America, 2013: Brooklyn 2, Philly 2, 2014: Denver, 2015: Global Citizen Festival, 2016: Philly 2, Fenway 1, 2018: Fenway 1, 2, 2021: Sea. Hear. Now. 2022: Camden, 2024Philly 2, 2025: Pittsburgh 

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  • JimmyVJimmyV Boston's MetroWest Posts: 19,470
    This. Fucking. Country. 
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  • Relying on unreliable voters to win you an election is never a great strategy. Worked wonderfully in ‘08 with an electric candidate with energy and universal appeal. Not sure it can work with Biden, hope I’m wrong.
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  • OnWis97OnWis97 St. Paul, MN Posts: 5,482
    edited November 2020
    Relying on unreliable voters to win you an election is never a great strategy. Worked wonderfully in ‘08 with an electric candidate with energy and universal appeal. Not sure it can work with Biden, hope I’m wrong.
    This has been the difference since at least Reagan.  He replaced Carter, who was an ineffective president elected because Ford pardoned Nixon. Mondale? Meh (though NOBODY was going to be Reagan). Dukakis? LOL.  Then came Bill Clinton; young, energetic, played the sax on Arsenio. Gore? Smart but stiff and boring. Kerry? Meh.  Then came Obama; electric, as you say. Hillary? Worse than "meh." Absolutely hated. Biden? Meh.

    Republicans are the default winners for a few reasons. They don't lose presidential elections; "electric" Democrats go in and take them.  Of course, the way the courts, media and Senate are going to look for the next few years, even that may not be possible any more.

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