Nate Silver 538

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  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,590
    edited November 2020
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    The Juggler said:
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    The Juggler said:
    538 gives you their estimates on when each state's outcomes will be determined:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/
    well that sucks. so for it to be over on election night he has to take florida. even then trump won't concede. if he ever does. 
    No there are other scenarios without Florida. Getting Florida would certainly make things a lot easier though. 
    all the swing states in play, he says will have many or most of their votes counted on election night, or worse, by wednesday or thursday. what am i missing? just so we're clear, i'm not saying he needs florida to win, i'm saying it looks like nate is saying he needs florida for the election to be called tomorrow night. 
    Here's the map 
    https://www.270towin.com/

    One scenario would be the exact same map from '16 but with Biden winning Texas, which will likely be done counting tomorrow night. So even if he loses, Fl, PA, MI, and WI but wins Texas, he wins on election night. 

    I think PA and MI are the two that will take the longest. Might know the results of the rest of them tomorrow night. 
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  • PJNB
    PJNB Posts: 13,890
    The Juggler said:
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    The Juggler said:
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    The Juggler said:
    538 gives you their estimates on when each state's outcomes will be determined:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/
    well that sucks. so for it to be over on election night he has to take florida. even then trump won't concede. if he ever does. 
    No there are other scenarios without Florida. Getting Florida would certainly make things a lot easier though. 
    all the swing states in play, he says will have many or most of their votes counted on election night, or worse, by wednesday or thursday. what am i missing? just so we're clear, i'm not saying he needs florida to win, i'm saying it looks like nate is saying he needs florida for the election to be called tomorrow night. 
    Here's the map 
    https://www.270towin.com/

    One scenario would be the exact same map from '16 but with Biden winning Texas, which will likely be done counting tomorrow night. So even if he loses, Fl, PA, MI, and WI but wins Texas, he wins on election night. 

    I think PA and MI are the two that will take the longest. Might know the results of the rest of them tomorrow night. 
    The thing is there is no way he loses a state like PA and wins Texas. Texas is going to be the icing on the cake if they can flip it. All he has to do is win either AZ,PA,NC,GA or FL and its over. Just one of those 5 gets him the win. If that is not the outcome the polls were wrong again and a state that was at least +6 Biden goes to Trump which I would be shocked to see happen. 


  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,590
    edited November 2020
    PJNB said:
    The Juggler said:
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    The Juggler said:
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    The Juggler said:
    538 gives you their estimates on when each state's outcomes will be determined:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/
    well that sucks. so for it to be over on election night he has to take florida. even then trump won't concede. if he ever does. 
    No there are other scenarios without Florida. Getting Florida would certainly make things a lot easier though. 
    all the swing states in play, he says will have many or most of their votes counted on election night, or worse, by wednesday or thursday. what am i missing? just so we're clear, i'm not saying he needs florida to win, i'm saying it looks like nate is saying he needs florida for the election to be called tomorrow night. 
    Here's the map 
    https://www.270towin.com/

    One scenario would be the exact same map from '16 but with Biden winning Texas, which will likely be done counting tomorrow night. So even if he loses, Fl, PA, MI, and WI but wins Texas, he wins on election night. 

    I think PA and MI are the two that will take the longest. Might know the results of the rest of them tomorrow night. 
    The thing is there is no way he loses a state like PA and wins Texas. Texas is going to be the icing on the cake if they can flip it. All he has to do is win either AZ,PA,NC,GA or FL and its over. Just one of those 5 gets him the win. If that is not the outcome the polls were wrong again and a state that was at least +6 Biden goes to Trump which I would be shocked to see happen. 


    Yeah I know. But we won't know the results of PA until Friday. Hugh was asking for a scenario of knowing the winner tomorrow night with Trump winning Florida. If Biden wins Texas, boom, that's it.
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  • bootleg
    bootleg Posts: 1,207
    mrussel1 said:
    Gern Blansten said:
    Charles Cook was just on MTPD and said that he thinks the race will go to Biden as soon as TX and FL report tomorrow night.  He said PA won't matter....dude was confident as hell
    Charlie Cook is no hack.  God, please let him be right.  I'll never ask for anything again... maybe. 
    I’m hoping so badly that this is over early and that it doesn’t come down to PA.  Seriously PA, get your shit together.
  • PJNB
    PJNB Posts: 13,890
    edited November 2020
    The Juggler said:
    PJNB said:
    The Juggler said:
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    The Juggler said:
    HughFreakingDillon said:
    The Juggler said:
    538 gives you their estimates on when each state's outcomes will be determined:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/
    well that sucks. so for it to be over on election night he has to take florida. even then trump won't concede. if he ever does. 
    No there are other scenarios without Florida. Getting Florida would certainly make things a lot easier though. 
    all the swing states in play, he says will have many or most of their votes counted on election night, or worse, by wednesday or thursday. what am i missing? just so we're clear, i'm not saying he needs florida to win, i'm saying it looks like nate is saying he needs florida for the election to be called tomorrow night. 
    Here's the map 
    https://www.270towin.com/

    One scenario would be the exact same map from '16 but with Biden winning Texas, which will likely be done counting tomorrow night. So even if he loses, Fl, PA, MI, and WI but wins Texas, he wins on election night. 

    I think PA and MI are the two that will take the longest. Might know the results of the rest of them tomorrow night. 
    The thing is there is no way he loses a state like PA and wins Texas. Texas is going to be the icing on the cake if they can flip it. All he has to do is win either AZ,PA,NC,GA or FL and its over. Just one of those 5 gets him the win. If that is not the outcome the polls were wrong again and a state that was at least +6 Biden goes to Trump which I would be shocked to see happen. 


    Yeah I know. But we won't know the results of PA until Friday. Hugh was asking for a scenario of knowing the winner tomorrow night with Trump winning Florida. If Biden wins Texas, boom, that's it.
    Ah gotcha! AZ and NC are high probabilities of coming in election night as well and would do the trick.
    Post edited by PJNB on
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,519
    I really don't like to spread rumors, but I'm getting texts that Trump is showing up in Philly tomorrow to personally count mail ballots.
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,016
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    I really don't like to spread rumors, but I'm getting texts that Trump is showing up in Philly tomorrow to personally count mail ballots.
    On the south side?
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  • F Me In The Brain
    F Me In The Brain this knows everybody from other commets Posts: 31,801
    He can't count higher than hamburder
    The love he receives is the love that is saved
  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,519
    edited November 2020
    Counting means clearing the convention hall out, which takes time. The whole thing would be meant to do nothing more than stall and hold things up.
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,824
    Just had FOX on for 5 minutes.Nate Silver is a liberal stooge who is about to be embarrassed again because he is backtracking on PA and knows full well what’s about to happen and won’t say it. How do democrats expect to win if they are too scared to show up to vote, they’ve never voted by mail before and don’t know how. All this while the president has been brilliant portraying the election as a choice getting your life back with some precautions vs. being scared in a dark winter in a lockdown. 

    I think they changed my mind.
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,590
    edited November 2020
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    Counting means clearing the convention hall out, which takes time. The whole thing would be meant to do nothing more than stall and hold things up.
    What does this even mean?
    Post edited by The Juggler on
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  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,519
    The Juggler said:
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    Counting means clearing the convention hall out, which takes time. The whole thing would be meant to do nothing more than stall and hold things up.
    What does this even mean?
    Any candidate, I believe, can watch the city count ballots (not poll watching). If he were to do this, then SS has to come in and do their thing, holding up the counting process.
  • tbergs
    tbergs Posts: 10,398
    I can't wait for the election to be over just to quit hearing the doom and gloom of the Debbie downers around here.
    It's a hopeless situation...
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,824
    tbergs said:
    I can't wait for the election to be over just to quit hearing the doom and gloom of the Debbie downers around here.
    Better include CNN and MSNBC and all their guests. All Dem leaning guests seem very nervous. Except Charlie Cook. 

    Chris Hayes said it best, Democrats are nervous as hell and Republicans have swagger 100% they are winning. Without a doubt this mirrors everyone I know personally. All this while polls say Dems are likely to sweep congress and presidency.

     Very bizarre moment in American history
  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,016
    Lerxst1992 said:
    tbergs said:
    I can't wait for the election to be over just to quit hearing the doom and gloom of the Debbie downers around here.
    Better include CNN and MSNBC and all their guests. All Dem leaning guests seem very nervous. Except Charlie Cook. 

    Chris Hayes said it best, Democrats are nervous as hell and Republicans have swagger 100% they are winning. Without a doubt this mirrors everyone I know personally. All this while polls say Dems are likely to sweep congress and presidency.

     Very bizarre moment in American history
    231,000+ dead Americans weigh heavily. As do disgusted, establishment repubs, Bush/Romney repubs, members of the military, intelligence and civil service establishments. Add to all of those, they have 10-20 family and friends that hear them, listen and shake their heads because they’d be looking at another 4 years with Jeb, Ted, Marco, Kasich, Ryan, Romney, et. al. running for re-election, maybe even Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat had he reigned it in a tad or tried the slightest to be presidential. All of that and Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat never appealed beyond his base of truly Deplorables. In hind sight, how true was Hillary versus Team Trump Treason Tax Cheat? Who’s more likely going to jail?

    Worst POTUS and biggest scam ever. ‘Murica is moving on. Imagine that.
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  • igotid88
    igotid88 Posts: 28,621
    More people have early voted in Texas than have voted in previous elections. Especially among minorities. 
    I miss igotid88
  • darwinstheory
    darwinstheory LaPorte, IN Posts: 7,346
    Finished at 10/89/1....Let's go!
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,824
    Reading the cross tabs religiously now thanks to MR, it’s stunning how covid has dropped to #2 issue in many swing states as the economy is #1.

     I just read two articles, the first about manhattan office space still 90% empty, and the second about movie theater revenue also down around 90%.

    To me these two articles prove trumps main argument is a complete lie, the economy isn’t coming back until covid is under control.

    But, in Swing state poll after swing state poll, to see the economy even as competitive with covid is absurd. Yet, trump seems to be making his point.

    And to look at other key facts, like the tangible enthusiasm gap, and pollsters unable to predict rural turnout - sorry this is attempting to consider all facts, and be skeptical of an obvious left leaning forecast is trying to be a realist in uncertain times.

    As optimistic as I am that Biden ran a decent campaign and there was no devastating Comey letter moment, please please please let it not be the fracking comment in the last debate, 89 to 10 is an absurd forecast.



  • F Me In The Brain
    F Me In The Brain this knows everybody from other commets Posts: 31,801
    Jesus.  People ready to jump off the roof at 6:35am eastern.

    The love he receives is the love that is saved
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,590
    RCP is trash at this point


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