Nate Silver 538

Gern Blansten

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Charles Cook was just on MTPD and said that he thinks the race will go to Biden as soon as TX and FL report tomorrow night.  He said PA won't matter....dude was confident as hell

Charlie Cook is no hack.  God, please let him be right.  I'll never ask for anything again... maybe. 

Yeah...I'm still in a bit of shock.  He had no hesitation to offering that opinion.  I think Chuck Todd was surprised too.

Gern Blansten

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323338341484515329

Fuck you Nate!

HughFreakingDillon

he said this will be more like 1980 than 2016. he is confident biden wins and it's called early, and senate has a 75% chance of going blue. 

tbergs

I'll be glued to election results all night waiting for the Trump sniveling and whining. The next 2 months will be crazy. 

HughFreakingDillon

Isn't it insane that many of us are just as or more concerned about the 2+ months between election night and inauguration day than we are the actual election? what does that tell you about the state of politics right now?

static111

If the senate goes blue can we impeach Kavanaugh and Amy Christina Barcelona?

The Juggler

Gern Blansten said:

Charles Cook was just on MTPD and said that he thinks the race will go to Biden as soon as TX and FL report tomorrow night.  He said PA won't matter....dude was confident as hell

He was basing that off of my post above.

LET'S FUCKIN' GO!

The Juggler

HughFreakingDillon said:

Isn't it insane that many of us are just as or more concerned about the 2+ months between election night and inauguration day than we are the actual election? what does that tell you about the state of politics right now?

I am WAAAAY more concerned about the election than what happens after it. One existential threat to our democracy at a time is enough for me. lol

Gern Blansten

HughFreakingDillon said:

Isn't it insane that many of us are just as or more concerned about the 2+ months between election night and inauguration day than we are the actual election? what does that tell you about the state of politics right now?

It's going to be weird...lots of odd pardons, probably a lot of golf trips at tRump resorts so that he can bilk as much money as possible before he leaves.

mrussel1

static111 said:

If the senate goes blue can we impeach Kavanaugh and Amy Christina Barcelona?

you could, but you still need 2/3 and an actual impeachable offense.  

pjhawks

Just fucking win Florida and Michigan tomorrow and get this over with. If it does come down to Pennysylvania this is going to be hanging chad shit all over again but on a much larger and ugly scale.

static111

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

If the senate goes blue can we impeach Kavanaugh and Amy Christina Barcelona?

you could, but you still need 2/3 and an actual impeachable offense.  

OK so potentially if we go big in the senate we could get Kavanaugh. Gotta be some serious skeletons that could be found by an actual investigation. Amy Christina Barcelona for all her faults seems to be squeaky clean from a legal standpoint though.

HughFreakingDillon

static111 said:

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

If the senate goes blue can we impeach Kavanaugh and Amy Christina Barcelona?

you could, but you still need 2/3 and an actual impeachable offense.  

OK so potentially if we go big in the senate we could get Kavanaugh. Gotta be some serious skeletons that could be found by an actual investigation. Amy Christina Barcelona for all her faults seems to be squeaky clean from a legal standpoint though.

It would theoretically be easier to add liberal justices than impeach current ones. let those two sit on the bench and have to revel in their losing dissenting opinions for the next 8 years. 

mrussel1

HughFreakingDillon said:

static111 said:

mrussel1 said:

static111 said:

If the senate goes blue can we impeach Kavanaugh and Amy Christina Barcelona?

you could, but you still need 2/3 and an actual impeachable offense.  

OK so potentially if we go big in the senate we could get Kavanaugh. Gotta be some serious skeletons that could be found by an actual investigation. Amy Christina Barcelona for all her faults seems to be squeaky clean from a legal standpoint though.

It would theoretically be easier to add liberal justices than impeach current ones. let those two sit on the bench and have to revel in their losing dissenting opinions for the next 8 years. 

Yeah I agree, and I think the expansion of the court plays off as less vindictive than impeachment.  

Lerxst1992

Charlie Cook, huh?

The Juggler

pjhawks said:

Just fucking win Florida and Michigan tomorrow and get this over with. If it does come down to Pennysylvania this is going to be hanging chad shit all over again but on a much larger and ugly scale.

Won't know Michigan results till around same time as PA....

The Juggler

538 gives you their estimates on when each state's outcomes will be determined:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/

HughFreakingDillon

The Juggler said:

538 gives you their estimates on when each state's outcomes will be determined:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/

well that sucks. so for it to be over on election night he has to take florida. even then trump won't concede. if he ever does. 

The Juggler

HughFreakingDillon said:

The Juggler said:

538 gives you their estimates on when each state's outcomes will be determined:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/

well that sucks. so for it to be over on election night he has to take florida. even then trump won't concede. if he ever does. 

No there are other scenarios without Florida. Getting Florida would certainly make things a lot easier though. 

HughFreakingDillon

The Juggler said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

The Juggler said:

538 gives you their estimates on when each state's outcomes will be determined:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/

well that sucks. so for it to be over on election night he has to take florida. even then trump won't concede. if he ever does. 

No there are other scenarios without Florida. Getting Florida would certainly make things a lot easier though. 

all the swing states in play, he says will have many or most of their votes counted on election night, or worse, by wednesday or thursday. what am i missing? just so we're clear, i'm not saying he needs florida to win, i'm saying it looks like nate is saying he needs florida for the election to be called tomorrow night.