Nate Silver 538

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  • cutz
    cutz Posts: 12,235

  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,594

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  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,853
    edited October 2020
    The Juggler said:








    Comparing apples to apples (RCP) 2020 PA looks reasonably comparable to 2016 at this point in time, and it is the tipping point state. Hillary was actually doing better. Someone mentioned Comey letter hurt Clinton here and I agree, but I think there is a good chance trump and/or the senate comes up with some BS in the next 2 weeks that could do something to the polls. Early voting could save the Dems. Hopefully.

    If Biden misses in PA, the next tipping point is FL. 

    No way FL is anything other than 50/50 and no way this is an 87% chance Biden election. I can’t explain how trump gets covid and says he wants everyone to get it and the polls tighten, but he did and they did.

    Prediction- by Election Day 538 will have no choice but to have their odds fairly close to Clinton’s 2016 chance of 70%. 


    Edit, AZ just jumped ahead of FL  on the snake tipping point chart. Not sure if that’s good news or bad, because a few months ago Biden had a sizable FL lead.
    Post edited by Lerxst1992 on
  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,853
    Jearlpam0925 said:
    Could've worse if Barrett was on there:




    I completely agree. This is scary news. 4 conservative justices who claim to believe in states rights and limited govt decided to intervene and override a critical state court ruling.

    I have no doubt Barrett would join the conservatives in key election decisions once she is on there. Roberts is voting with Dems only to protect the reputation of his court for the history books, like he has done often since Kennedy retired.

    This election is getting close and it may take Pelosi fighting SCOTUS with ever trick in her book if there is a key party line SCOTUS vote
  • mrussel1
    mrussel1 Posts: 30,879
    Lerxst1992 said:
    The Juggler said:








    Comparing apples to apples (RCP) 2020 PA looks reasonably comparable to 2016 at this point in time, and it is the tipping point state. Hillary was actually doing better. Someone mentioned Comey letter hurt Clinton here and I agree, but I think there is a good chance trump and/or the senate comes up with some BS in the next 2 weeks that could do something to the polls. Early voting could save the Dems. Hopefully.

    If Biden misses in PA, the next tipping point is FL. 

    No way FL is anything other than 50/50 and no way this is an 87% chance Biden election. I can’t explain how trump gets covid and says he wants everyone to get it and the polls tighten, but he did and they did.

    Prediction- by Election Day 538 will have no choice but to have their odds fairly close to Clinton’s 2016 chance of 70%. 


    Edit, AZ just jumped ahead of FL  on the snake tipping point chart. Not sure if that’s good news or bad, because a few months ago Biden had a sizable FL lead.
    There's no doubt that PA is tightening.  Recent polls have shown that.  It's going to come down to turnout. 
  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,594
    edited October 2020
    It is tightening a little. But didn't we expect that after Trump's horrible debate performance and covid diagnosis. It was eventually gonna tight a little as that stuff faded. But RCP is laughable at 3.8%. Biden's lead is about 2% higher than it was a few months ago and waaay more steadier than HRC's lead was (at this point in '16 she was still basking in the glow of the access hollywood tape bump a few days prior to the Comey bombshell--that stuff is not happening this time around). 


    Post edited by The Juggler on
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  • The Juggler
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  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,527
    @Lerxst1992 I think you should check out Nate's latest pod where they go over the 12%:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBUCBJnL19E



  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,853
    edited October 2020
    The Juggler said:


    And 538 includes Quinnipiac which is a very pro democratic poll, so it could go both ways.

     RCP had Clinton +1.7 last time in PA and 538 was +3.7, so if I were Nate I wouldn’t be so dismissive about RCP. I’d say RCP a better job In PA last time. I hope Quinnipiac is right, but my expectation in an 87% chance race is that the tipping point state would  have a more comfortable lead, one that’s nearly as solid as the national. I don’t think Nate can make that claim .

    I’ve been chirping at Nate on social media about PA the last couple days, glad he’s paying attention ;)

     

  • benjs
    benjs Toronto, ON Posts: 9,367
    Lerxst1992 said:
    The Juggler said:


    And 538 includes Quinnipiac which is a very pro democratic poll, so it could go both ways.

     RCP had Clinton +1.7 last time in PA and 538 was +3.7, so if I were Nate I wouldn’t be so dismissive about RCP. I’d say RCP a better job In PA last time. I hope Quinnipiac is right, but my expectation in an 87% chance race is that the tipping point state would  have a more comfortable lead, one that’s nearly as solid as the national. I don’t think Nate can make that claim .

    I’ve been chirping at Nate on social media about PA the last couple days, glad he’s paying attention ;)

     

    While 538 includes Quinnipiac along with other polls which tend to lean a specific direction, they do adjust for biases to counteract. Add to that the wisdom of the crowd benefit by aggregating across different polls. 
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  • Jearlpam0925
    Jearlpam0925 Deep South Philly Posts: 17,527
    This is a very good thread:


  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,594
    benjs said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    The Juggler said:


    And 538 includes Quinnipiac which is a very pro democratic poll, so it could go both ways.

     RCP had Clinton +1.7 last time in PA and 538 was +3.7, so if I were Nate I wouldn’t be so dismissive about RCP. I’d say RCP a better job In PA last time. I hope Quinnipiac is right, but my expectation in an 87% chance race is that the tipping point state would  have a more comfortable lead, one that’s nearly as solid as the national. I don’t think Nate can make that claim .

    I’ve been chirping at Nate on social media about PA the last couple days, glad he’s paying attention ;)

     

    While 538 includes Quinnipiac along with other polls which tend to lean a specific direction, they do adjust for biases to counteract. Add to that the wisdom of the crowd benefit by aggregating across different polls. 
    Correct.
    Amundo.
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  • Lerxst1992
    Lerxst1992 Posts: 7,853
    The Juggler said:
    benjs said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    The Juggler said:


    And 538 includes Quinnipiac which is a very pro democratic poll, so it could go both ways.

     RCP had Clinton +1.7 last time in PA and 538 was +3.7, so if I were Nate I wouldn’t be so dismissive about RCP. I’d say RCP a better job In PA last time. I hope Quinnipiac is right, but my expectation in an 87% chance race is that the tipping point state would  have a more comfortable lead, one that’s nearly as solid as the national. I don’t think Nate can make that claim .

    I’ve been chirping at Nate on social media about PA the last couple days, glad he’s paying attention ;)

     

    While 538 includes Quinnipiac along with other polls which tend to lean a specific direction, they do adjust for biases to counteract. Add to that the wisdom of the crowd benefit by aggregating across different polls. 
    Correct.
    Amundo.


    Cmon. Quinnipiac has Biden +13 in PA. That’s clearly way off. Of course I wish it were correct.

    Anyone want to take action on that spread? I’ll put a grand that Biden doesn’t win PA by that much. I’d happily lose that bet because if that poll were real the Dems will sweep into power almost everywhere.

     RCP, for their lack of “wisdom of the crowd“ did a better job predicting PA last time. I am not saying they will be more accurate again, but their data is at a minimum, respectable.
  • MayDay10
    MayDay10 Posts: 11,853
    As stated, 538 recognizes how Quinnipiac skews and adjusts the probabilities.

    Rasmussen... basically the Quinnipiac counterweight, has biden up by 3 in PA.  

    there are a bunch in the middle, typically more accurate.  Their methods, trends. everything is taken into account.  Last turn, 538 had was one of the only places that gave trump a decent statistical shot.  

  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,594
    edited October 2020
    MayDay10 said:
    As stated, 538 recognizes how Quinnipiac skews and adjusts the probabilities.

    Rasmussen... basically the Quinnipiac counterweight, has biden up by 3 in PA.  

    there are a bunch in the middle, typically more accurate.  Their methods, trends. everything is taken into account.  Last turn, 538 had was one of the only places that gave trump a decent statistical shot.  

    CORRECT.
    AMUNDO.

    Come on, Lex. What is so difficult here?

    Suffolk today out with Biden up 6 in PA. "A" rated pollster. Given all the info we have, that sounds....SHOCKINGLY ACCURATE! lol

    Filter all polling this month by those rated B and above (so you get rid of Rasmussen, Trafalgar and also Survey Monkey, etc)....and you have Biden up by an average of 7.8%

    Looking good with under two weeks to go. Big debate tomorrow and we already know the president somehow made a fool of himself on 60 Minutes on Sunday and is doing nothing but drawing more attention to it. Get those confidence levels up, people.
    Post edited by The Juggler on
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  • Halifax2TheMax
    Halifax2TheMax Posts: 42,119
    The Juggler said:
    MayDay10 said:
    As stated, 538 recognizes how Quinnipiac skews and adjusts the probabilities.

    Rasmussen... basically the Quinnipiac counterweight, has biden up by 3 in PA.  

    there are a bunch in the middle, typically more accurate.  Their methods, trends. everything is taken into account.  Last turn, 538 had was one of the only places that gave trump a decent statistical shot.  

    CORRECT.
    AMUNDO.

    Come on, Lex. What is so difficult here?

    Suffolk today out with Biden up 6 in PA. "A" rated pollster. Given all the info we have, that sounds....SHOCKINGLY ACCURATE! lol

    Filter all polling this month by those rated B and above (so you get rid of Rasmussen, Trafalgar and also Survey Monkey, etc)....and you have Biden up by an average of 7.8%

    Looking good with under two weeks to go. Big debate tomorrow and we already know the president somehow made a fool of himself on 60 Minutes on Sunday and is doing nothing but drawing more attention to it. Get those confidence levels up, people.
    Get your asses out to VOTE! Sleepy Woke Joe Basement Biden is down 23! Nationwide!
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  • The Juggler
    The Juggler Posts: 49,594
    Halifax2TheMax said:
    The Juggler said:
    MayDay10 said:
    As stated, 538 recognizes how Quinnipiac skews and adjusts the probabilities.

    Rasmussen... basically the Quinnipiac counterweight, has biden up by 3 in PA.  

    there are a bunch in the middle, typically more accurate.  Their methods, trends. everything is taken into account.  Last turn, 538 had was one of the only places that gave trump a decent statistical shot.  

    CORRECT.
    AMUNDO.

    Come on, Lex. What is so difficult here?

    Suffolk today out with Biden up 6 in PA. "A" rated pollster. Given all the info we have, that sounds....SHOCKINGLY ACCURATE! lol

    Filter all polling this month by those rated B and above (so you get rid of Rasmussen, Trafalgar and also Survey Monkey, etc)....and you have Biden up by an average of 7.8%

    Looking good with under two weeks to go. Big debate tomorrow and we already know the president somehow made a fool of himself on 60 Minutes on Sunday and is doing nothing but drawing more attention to it. Get those confidence levels up, people.
    Get your asses out to VOTE! Sleepy Woke Joe Basement Biden is down 23! Nationwide!
    Already did. I'm only allowed to vote once. 
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  • Gern Blansten
    Gern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,177
    Lerxst1992 said:
    The Juggler said:
    benjs said:
    Lerxst1992 said:
    The Juggler said:


    And 538 includes Quinnipiac which is a very pro democratic poll, so it could go both ways.

     RCP had Clinton +1.7 last time in PA and 538 was +3.7, so if I were Nate I wouldn’t be so dismissive about RCP. I’d say RCP a better job In PA last time. I hope Quinnipiac is right, but my expectation in an 87% chance race is that the tipping point state would  have a more comfortable lead, one that’s nearly as solid as the national. I don’t think Nate can make that claim .

    I’ve been chirping at Nate on social media about PA the last couple days, glad he’s paying attention ;)

     

    While 538 includes Quinnipiac along with other polls which tend to lean a specific direction, they do adjust for biases to counteract. Add to that the wisdom of the crowd benefit by aggregating across different polls. 
    Correct.
    Amundo.


    Cmon. Quinnipiac has Biden +13 in PA. That’s clearly way off. Of course I wish it were correct.

    Anyone want to take action on that spread? I’ll put a grand that Biden doesn’t win PA by that much. I’d happily lose that bet because if that poll were real the Dems will sweep into power almost everywhere.

     RCP, for their lack of “wisdom of the crowd“ did a better job predicting PA last time. I am not saying they will be more accurate again, but their data is at a minimum, respectable.
    They use them but they discount the results based on past performance....this isn't rocket science.  If Quinn is normally 20% overstated they will discount the result by 20% in their model.
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

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    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
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  • Gern Blansten
    Gern Blansten Mar-A-Lago Posts: 22,177
    Gern Blansten said:
    Biden has been favored 72/28 or 73/27 for a week or so....today it dropped slightly




    Almost two months later...
    Remember the Thomas Nine !! (10/02/2018)
    The Golden Age is 2 months away. And guess what….. you’re gonna love it! (teskeinc 11.19.24)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Wrigley; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley, Wrigley, Boston, Boston
    2020: Oakland, Oakland:  2021: EV Ohana, Ohana, Ohana, Ohana
    2022: Oakland, Oakland, Nashville, Louisville; 2023: Chicago, Chicago, Noblesville
    2024: Noblesville, Wrigley, Wrigley, Ohana, Ohana; 2025: Pitt1, Pitt2
  • darwinstheory
    darwinstheory LaPorte, IN Posts: 7,360
    That is still about 12 too many little red dots, but it is a start.
    "A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory

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