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Nate Silver 538

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  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 11,539
    Charlie Cook is a fucking idiot. 
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,982
    edited November 2020
    OnWis97 said:
    Relying on unreliable voters to win you an election is never a great strategy. Worked wonderfully in ‘08 with an electric candidate with energy and universal appeal. Not sure it can work with Biden, hope I’m wrong.
    This has been the difference since at least Reagan.  He replaced Carter, who was an ineffective president elected because Ford pardoned Nixon. Mondale? Meh (though NOBODY was going to be Reagan). Dukakis? LOL.  Then came Bill Clinton; young, energetic, played the sax on Arsenio. Gore? Smart but stiff and boring. Kerry? Meh.  Then came Obama; electric, as you say. Hillary? Worse than "meh." Absolutely hated. Biden? Meh.

    Republicans are the default winners for a few reasons. They don't lose presidential elections; "electric" Democrats go in and take them.  Of course, the way the courts, media and Senate are going to look for the next few years, even that may not be possible any more.


    They have turned us into the enemy. We can’t win electoral votes losing rural counties in rural states in rural America 70-30.

    This is the fact that I wanted to hear from pollsters and forecasters like Nate, whose job is to tell us what will happen in an election. I got shouted down a lot.

    Nates problem, and all the other forecasters like Charlie Cook, is they treat this like it’s statistics, and the truth is that it’s culture, one that we don’t fully understand in blue states.
  • bootlegbootleg Posts: 289
    OnWis97 said:
    Relying on unreliable voters to win you an election is never a great strategy. Worked wonderfully in ‘08 with an electric candidate with energy and universal appeal. Not sure it can work with Biden, hope I’m wrong.
    This has been the difference since at least Reagan.  He replaced Carter, who was an ineffective president elected because Ford pardoned Nixon. Mondale? Meh (though NOBODY was going to be Reagan). Dukakis? LOL.  Then came Bill Clinton; young, energetic, played the sax on Arsenio. Gore? Smart but stiff and boring. Kerry? Meh.  Then came Obama; electric, as you say. Hillary? Worse than "meh." Absolutely hated. Biden? Meh.

    Republicans are the default winners for a few reasons. They don't lose presidential elections; "electric" Democrats go in and take them.  Of course, the way the courts, media and Senate are going to look for the next few years, even that may not be possible any more.


    They have turned us into the enemy. We can’t win electoral votes losing rural counties in rural states in rural America 70-30.

    This is the fact that I wanted to hear from pollsters and forecasters like Nate, whose job is to tell us what will happen in an election. I got shouted down a lot.

    Nates problem, and all the other forecasters like Charlie Cook, is they treat this like it’s statistics, and the truth is that it’s culture, one that we don’t fully understand in blue states.
    That is their only platform.  That libs are the enemy and must be defeated at all cost.  They also have no qualms about outright making shit up and spreading it to their cult followers.  Dems are hampered by trying to stick to the truth.  
  • PoncierPoncier Posts: 12,158
    538 is officially trash.
    This weekend we rock Portland
  • OnWis97 said:
    Relying on unreliable voters to win you an election is never a great strategy. Worked wonderfully in ‘08 with an electric candidate with energy and universal appeal. Not sure it can work with Biden, hope I’m wrong.
    This has been the difference since at least Reagan.  He replaced Carter, who was an ineffective president elected because Ford pardoned Nixon. Mondale? Meh (though NOBODY was going to be Reagan). Dukakis? LOL.  Then came Bill Clinton; young, energetic, played the sax on Arsenio. Gore? Smart but stiff and boring. Kerry? Meh.  Then came Obama; electric, as you say. Hillary? Worse than "meh." Absolutely hated. Biden? Meh.

    Republicans are the default winners for a few reasons. They don't lose presidential elections; "electric" Democrats go in and take them.  Of course, the way the courts, media and Senate are going to look for the next few years, even that may not be possible any more.

    A once in a century pandemic and a country in an overall death spiral might be the exception to all these rules. I believe Trump would have won by a wide margin minus covid, The fact that he still might pull this off is honestly shocking and should be a huge wake up call to Democrats going forward. Win or lose Dems have to find a way to attract rural voters and get young voters to actually cast their ballots. Good luck with that, minus running a celebrity or some other ridiculous ploy.
    06/22/95, 11/04/95, 11/15/97, 07/16/98, 10/30/99, 10/30/00, 10/31/00, 10/20/01, 10/21/01, 12/08/02, 06/01/03, 06/06/03, 10/25/03, 10/26/03, 09/28/04, 03/18/05, 09/01/05, 07/15/06, 07/16/06, 07/18/06, 07/22/06, 07/23/06, 10/21/06, 10/22/06, 08/28/09, 09/21/09, 09/22/09, 05/20/10, 05/21/10, 10/24/10, 11/26/13, 12/06/13, 06/28/14, 10/26/14, 07/10/18, 08/10/18
  • pjhawkspjhawks Posts: 10,910
    It’s coming down to us in PA,  gonna take a few days
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,982
    pjhawks said:
    It’s coming down to us in PA,  gonna take a few days
    Not necessarily, per 538-

    “Fox News, which has its own decision desk and exit poll data, has called Arizona for Biden and Florida for Trump. They also called the Arizona Senate for Kelly. We have seen no other news organization call Arizona, which may mean this call is premature. Keep an eye on other outlets to see if they wind up backing up or conflicting with Fox.“


    Losing AZ puts some pressure on Trump.
  • cutzcutz Posts: 10,054
    pjhawks said:
    It’s coming down to us in PA,  gonna take a few days
    Looks like MI. & WI. too?
  • RoleModelsinBlood31RoleModelsinBlood31 Austin TXPosts: 5,727
    bootleg said:
    OnWis97 said:
    Relying on unreliable voters to win you an election is never a great strategy. Worked wonderfully in ‘08 with an electric candidate with energy and universal appeal. Not sure it can work with Biden, hope I’m wrong.
    This has been the difference since at least Reagan.  He replaced Carter, who was an ineffective president elected because Ford pardoned Nixon. Mondale? Meh (though NOBODY was going to be Reagan). Dukakis? LOL.  Then came Bill Clinton; young, energetic, played the sax on Arsenio. Gore? Smart but stiff and boring. Kerry? Meh.  Then came Obama; electric, as you say. Hillary? Worse than "meh." Absolutely hated. Biden? Meh.

    Republicans are the default winners for a few reasons. They don't lose presidential elections; "electric" Democrats go in and take them.  Of course, the way the courts, media and Senate are going to look for the next few years, even that may not be possible any more.


    They have turned us into the enemy. We can’t win electoral votes losing rural counties in rural states in rural America 70-30.

    This is the fact that I wanted to hear from pollsters and forecasters like Nate, whose job is to tell us what will happen in an election. I got shouted down a lot.

    Nates problem, and all the other forecasters like Charlie Cook, is they treat this like it’s statistics, and the truth is that it’s culture, one that we don’t fully understand in blue states.
    That is their only platform.  That libs are the enemy and must be defeated at all cost.  They also have no qualms about outright making shit up and spreading it to their cult followers.  Dems are hampered by trying to stick to the truth.  
    false.  the narrative from the left was obliterated after russia collusiion went down the tubes.  no one believes anything out of the left's mouths anymore after that political stunt.  a president was impeached over a phone call where both parties involved said there was no issue, and we even had the transcript lol.. by a party who then puts up a candidate who literally is lamer than clinton and did worse than trumps phone call in ukraine. he barely squeeked by the primaries, then chooses a vp running mate who was hated by her peers. stats have showed that even with fb and twitter's obvious suppression, hunter's laptop spewing the goods on joe was a massively damaging event.  It's not "libs must be defeated at all costs" as you make it out to be, more like most folks just see through the bs and know what the left has been trying since clinton lost, and they see right through it.  Get some legs, stop the "science is real" story while constantly cancel culturing and witholding facts, and people will get behind the party again.  its just too obviously fake.
    I'm like an opening band for your mom.
  • bootlegbootleg Posts: 289
    OnWis97 said:
    Relying on unreliable voters to win you an election is never a great strategy. Worked wonderfully in ‘08 with an electric candidate with energy and universal appeal. Not sure it can work with Biden, hope I’m wrong.
    This has been the difference since at least Reagan.  He replaced Carter, who was an ineffective president elected because Ford pardoned Nixon. Mondale? Meh (though NOBODY was going to be Reagan). Dukakis? LOL.  Then came Bill Clinton; young, energetic, played the sax on Arsenio. Gore? Smart but stiff and boring. Kerry? Meh.  Then came Obama; electric, as you say. Hillary? Worse than "meh." Absolutely hated. Biden? Meh.

    Republicans are the default winners for a few reasons. They don't lose presidential elections; "electric" Democrats go in and take them.  Of course, the way the courts, media and Senate are going to look for the next few years, even that may not be possible any more.

    A once in a century pandemic and a country in an overall death spiral might be the exception to all these rules. I believe Trump would have won by a wide margin minus covid, The fact that he still might pull this off is honestly shocking and should be a huge wake up call to Democrats going forward. Win or lose Dems have to find a way to attract rural voters and get young voters to actually cast their ballots. Good luck with that, minus running a celebrity or some other ridiculous ploy.
    Sadly I think that’s where we’re at.  Going to have to run a celeb like Oprah.  Seriously though how does he get this much support?  He fucking said maybe we can inject bleach to kill Covid.  I could could go on with all of the other things that would normally disqualify someone from being President but we all know the rest.  I don’t know if we can recover from this as a country.  We’re in the golden age of idiocy.
  • RoleModelsinBlood31RoleModelsinBlood31 Austin TXPosts: 5,727
    bootleg said:
    OnWis97 said:
    Relying on unreliable voters to win you an election is never a great strategy. Worked wonderfully in ‘08 with an electric candidate with energy and universal appeal. Not sure it can work with Biden, hope I’m wrong.
    This has been the difference since at least Reagan.  He replaced Carter, who was an ineffective president elected because Ford pardoned Nixon. Mondale? Meh (though NOBODY was going to be Reagan). Dukakis? LOL.  Then came Bill Clinton; young, energetic, played the sax on Arsenio. Gore? Smart but stiff and boring. Kerry? Meh.  Then came Obama; electric, as you say. Hillary? Worse than "meh." Absolutely hated. Biden? Meh.

    Republicans are the default winners for a few reasons. They don't lose presidential elections; "electric" Democrats go in and take them.  Of course, the way the courts, media and Senate are going to look for the next few years, even that may not be possible any more.

    A once in a century pandemic and a country in an overall death spiral might be the exception to all these rules. I believe Trump would have won by a wide margin minus covid, The fact that he still might pull this off is honestly shocking and should be a huge wake up call to Democrats going forward. Win or lose Dems have to find a way to attract rural voters and get young voters to actually cast their ballots. Good luck with that, minus running a celebrity or some other ridiculous ploy.
    Sadly I think that’s where we’re at.  Going to have to run a celeb like Oprah.  Seriously though how does he get this much support?  He fucking said maybe we can inject bleach to kill Covid.  I could could go on with all of the other things that would normally disqualify someone from being President but we all know the rest.  I don’t know if we can recover from this as a country.  We’re in the golden age of idiocy.
    thats part of the issue- you fell for the media's spin once again.  so taken up by your political desires, you actually think when he said that that he meant to do it. Sarcasm used to be a thing we all understood, but in the age of media headlines, you immediately assumed he meant to inject bleach!  No offense- but the general public, it's something like 65%, don't actually read the article or watch the clip, they just read the headline, re-tweet it, and tell all their friends how dumb trump is.  Funny to watch him troll the media, because he's good at it, he knows how they'll print it and how slackjaws will eat it up.
    I'm like an opening band for your mom.
  • brianluxbrianlux Moving through All Kinds of Terrain.Posts: 33,809
    bootleg said:
    OnWis97 said:
    Relying on unreliable voters to win you an election is never a great strategy. Worked wonderfully in ‘08 with an electric candidate with energy and universal appeal. Not sure it can work with Biden, hope I’m wrong.
    This has been the difference since at least Reagan.  He replaced Carter, who was an ineffective president elected because Ford pardoned Nixon. Mondale? Meh (though NOBODY was going to be Reagan). Dukakis? LOL.  Then came Bill Clinton; young, energetic, played the sax on Arsenio. Gore? Smart but stiff and boring. Kerry? Meh.  Then came Obama; electric, as you say. Hillary? Worse than "meh." Absolutely hated. Biden? Meh.

    Republicans are the default winners for a few reasons. They don't lose presidential elections; "electric" Democrats go in and take them.  Of course, the way the courts, media and Senate are going to look for the next few years, even that may not be possible any more.

    A once in a century pandemic and a country in an overall death spiral might be the exception to all these rules. I believe Trump would have won by a wide margin minus covid, The fact that he still might pull this off is honestly shocking and should be a huge wake up call to Democrats going forward. Win or lose Dems have to find a way to attract rural voters and get young voters to actually cast their ballots. Good luck with that, minus running a celebrity or some other ridiculous ploy.
    Sadly I think that’s where we’re at.  Going to have to run a celeb like Oprah.  Seriously though how does he get this much support?  He fucking said maybe we can inject bleach to kill Covid.  I could could go on with all of the other things that would normally disqualify someone from being President but we all know the rest.  I don’t know if we can recover from this as a country.  We’re in the golden age of idiocy.

    If Trump wins, I don't see how we can. 
    I think the best thing to do at this point, if it comes to the worse case, is keep tight with family and friends, if possible live in community or neighborhood that is at least fairly close to your viewpoints, learn to live carefully and frugally.   And have a fucking good time now and then.  Got to do that.
    “In all human affairs there are efforts, and there are results, and the strength of the effort is the measure of the result.”
    -James Allen










  • CM189191CM189191 Minneapolis via ChicagoPosts: 6,122
    bootleg said:
    OnWis97 said:
    Relying on unreliable voters to win you an election is never a great strategy. Worked wonderfully in ‘08 with an electric candidate with energy and universal appeal. Not sure it can work with Biden, hope I’m wrong.
    This has been the difference since at least Reagan.  He replaced Carter, who was an ineffective president elected because Ford pardoned Nixon. Mondale? Meh (though NOBODY was going to be Reagan). Dukakis? LOL.  Then came Bill Clinton; young, energetic, played the sax on Arsenio. Gore? Smart but stiff and boring. Kerry? Meh.  Then came Obama; electric, as you say. Hillary? Worse than "meh." Absolutely hated. Biden? Meh.

    Republicans are the default winners for a few reasons. They don't lose presidential elections; "electric" Democrats go in and take them.  Of course, the way the courts, media and Senate are going to look for the next few years, even that may not be possible any more.


    They have turned us into the enemy. We can’t win electoral votes losing rural counties in rural states in rural America 70-30.

    This is the fact that I wanted to hear from pollsters and forecasters like Nate, whose job is to tell us what will happen in an election. I got shouted down a lot.

    Nates problem, and all the other forecasters like Charlie Cook, is they treat this like it’s statistics, and the truth is that it’s culture, one that we don’t fully understand in blue states.
    That is their only platform.  That libs are the enemy and must be defeated at all cost.  They also have no qualms about outright making shit up and spreading it to their cult followers.  Dems are hampered by trying to stick to the truth.  
    false.  the narrative from the left was obliterated after russia collusiion went down the tubes.  no one believes anything out of the left's mouths anymore after that political stunt.  a president was impeached over a phone call where both parties involved said there was no issue, and we even had the transcript lol.. by a party who then puts up a candidate who literally is lamer than clinton and did worse than trumps phone call in ukraine. he barely squeeked by the primaries, then chooses a vp running mate who was hated by her peers. stats have showed that even with fb and twitter's obvious suppression, hunter's laptop spewing the goods on joe was a massively damaging event.  It's not "libs must be defeated at all costs" as you make it out to be, more like most folks just see through the bs and know what the left has been trying since clinton lost, and they see right through it.  Get some legs, stop the "science is real" story while constantly cancel culturing and witholding facts, and people will get behind the party again.  its just too obviously fake.



    WI 6/27/98 WI 10/8/00 MO 10/11/00 IL 4/23/03 MN 6/26/06 MN 6/27/06 WI 6/30/06 IL 8/5/07 IL 8/21/08 (EV) IL 8/22/08 (EV) IL 8/23/09 IL 8/24/09 IN 5/7/10 IL 6/28/11 (EV) IL 6/29/11 (EV) WI 9/3/11 WI 9/4/11 IL 7/19/13 NE 10/09/14 IL 10/17/14 MN 10/19/14 FL 4/11/16 IL 8/20/16 IL 8/22/16 IL 08/18/18 IL 08/20/18 IT 07/05/2020 AT 07/07/2020
  • bootlegbootleg Posts: 289
    bootleg said:
    OnWis97 said:
    Relying on unreliable voters to win you an election is never a great strategy. Worked wonderfully in ‘08 with an electric candidate with energy and universal appeal. Not sure it can work with Biden, hope I’m wrong.
    This has been the difference since at least Reagan.  He replaced Carter, who was an ineffective president elected because Ford pardoned Nixon. Mondale? Meh (though NOBODY was going to be Reagan). Dukakis? LOL.  Then came Bill Clinton; young, energetic, played the sax on Arsenio. Gore? Smart but stiff and boring. Kerry? Meh.  Then came Obama; electric, as you say. Hillary? Worse than "meh." Absolutely hated. Biden? Meh.

    Republicans are the default winners for a few reasons. They don't lose presidential elections; "electric" Democrats go in and take them.  Of course, the way the courts, media and Senate are going to look for the next few years, even that may not be possible any more.

    A once in a century pandemic and a country in an overall death spiral might be the exception to all these rules. I believe Trump would have won by a wide margin minus covid, The fact that he still might pull this off is honestly shocking and should be a huge wake up call to Democrats going forward. Win or lose Dems have to find a way to attract rural voters and get young voters to actually cast their ballots. Good luck with that, minus running a celebrity or some other ridiculous ploy.
    Sadly I think that’s where we’re at.  Going to have to run a celeb like Oprah.  Seriously though how does he get this much support?  He fucking said maybe we can inject bleach to kill Covid.  I could could go on with all of the other things that would normally disqualify someone from being President but we all know the rest.  I don’t know if we can recover from this as a country.  We’re in the golden age of idiocy.
    thats part of the issue- you fell for the media's spin once again.  so taken up by your political desires, you actually think when he said that that he meant to do it. Sarcasm used to be a thing we all understood, but in the age of media headlines, you immediately assumed he meant to inject bleach!  No offense- but the general public, it's something like 65%, don't actually read the article or watch the clip, they just read the headline, re-tweet it, and tell all their friends how dumb trump is.  Funny to watch him troll the media, because he's good at it, he knows how they'll print it and how slackjaws will eat it up.
    I watched it live in real time.  It was not sarcastic it was a legit dumbass thinking out loud.  Also if it was sarcasm or a joke I don’t think a briefing on the pandemic is the appropriate time to try to get some yucks.
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,982
    bootleg said:
    OnWis97 said:
    Relying on unreliable voters to win you an election is never a great strategy. Worked wonderfully in ‘08 with an electric candidate with energy and universal appeal. Not sure it can work with Biden, hope I’m wrong.
    This has been the difference since at least Reagan.  He replaced Carter, who was an ineffective president elected because Ford pardoned Nixon. Mondale? Meh (though NOBODY was going to be Reagan). Dukakis? LOL.  Then came Bill Clinton; young, energetic, played the sax on Arsenio. Gore? Smart but stiff and boring. Kerry? Meh.  Then came Obama; electric, as you say. Hillary? Worse than "meh." Absolutely hated. Biden? Meh.

    Republicans are the default winners for a few reasons. They don't lose presidential elections; "electric" Democrats go in and take them.  Of course, the way the courts, media and Senate are going to look for the next few years, even that may not be possible any more.


    They have turned us into the enemy. We can’t win electoral votes losing rural counties in rural states in rural America 70-30.

    This is the fact that I wanted to hear from pollsters and forecasters like Nate, whose job is to tell us what will happen in an election. I got shouted down a lot.

    Nates problem, and all the other forecasters like Charlie Cook, is they treat this like it’s statistics, and the truth is that it’s culture, one that we don’t fully understand in blue states.
    That is their only platform.  That libs are the enemy and must be defeated at all cost.  They also have no qualms about outright making shit up and spreading it to their cult followers.  Dems are hampered by trying to stick to the truth.  
    false.  the narrative from the left was obliterated after russia collusiion went down the tubes.  no one believes anything out of the left's mouths anymore after that political stunt.  a president was impeached over a phone call where both parties involved said there was no issue, and we even had the transcript lol.. by a party who then puts up a candidate who literally is lamer than clinton and did worse than trumps phone call in ukraine. he barely squeeked by the primaries, then chooses a vp running mate who was hated by her peers. stats have showed that even with fb and twitter's obvious suppression, hunter's laptop spewing the goods on joe was a massively damaging event.  It's not "libs must be defeated at all costs" as you make it out to be, more like most folks just see through the bs and know what the left has been trying since clinton lost, and they see right through it.  Get some legs, stop the "science is real" story while constantly cancel culturing and witholding facts, and people will get behind the party again.  its just too obviously fake.
    I really don’t want to relitigate this. The left didn’t have over a hundred secret meetings with Russian spies and  agents and cover it up and lie about it,. The left did not ask Putin help by committing felonies against an american candidate. I could go on but let’s stop and look forward.
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 11,539
    So except for having FL listed as light blue the 538 predictions were spot on eh? 
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,982
    So except for having FL listed as light blue the 538 predictions were spot on eh? 
    That must be a joke. They were wrong in a few key states. Their 10% scenario can still easily happen. And it’s not like something wild happened, the votes in thousands of counties are a carbon copy of last time. And 538 and the polls came up with some Fantasia world that was no where close to reality.
  • JimmyVJimmyV Boston's MetroWestPosts: 14,941

    ___________________________________________

    "...I changed by not changing at all..."
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 11,539
    So except for having FL listed as light blue the 538 predictions were spot on eh? 
    That must be a joke. They were wrong in a few key states. Their 10% scenario can still easily happen. And it’s not like something wild happened, the votes in thousands of counties are a carbon copy of last time. And 538 and the polls came up with some Fantasia world that was no where close to reality.
    I'm assuming MI WI and PA go to Biden but my statement is accurate 
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • JimmyVJimmyV Boston's MetroWestPosts: 14,941
    Biden has to win this because four more years of Trump in the White House and Nate Silver's weird internet fanboys going to the mattresses to defend him is just unthinkable. 
    ___________________________________________

    "...I changed by not changing at all..."
  • Lerxst1992Lerxst1992 Posts: 3,982
    JimmyV said:
    Biden has to win this because four more years of Trump in the White House and Nate Silver's weird internet fanboys going to the mattresses to defend him is just unthinkable. 

    Some stupid PJ fan took a lot of shots to the head warning that the polls and 538 were way off and that fake sense of a comfortable Biden win may have kept a few thousand voters at home in the rust belt which still gives trump a real chance. 
  • JimmyVJimmyV Boston's MetroWestPosts: 14,941
    JimmyV said:
    Biden has to win this because four more years of Trump in the White House and Nate Silver's weird internet fanboys going to the mattresses to defend him is just unthinkable. 

    Some stupid PJ fan took a lot of shots to the head warning that the polls and 538 were way off and that fake sense of a comfortable Biden win may have kept a few thousand voters at home in the rust belt which still gives trump a real chance. 
    I know that guy. I think he deserves a couple of MSG shows as consolation. :smiley:
    ___________________________________________

    "...I changed by not changing at all..."
  • PoncierPoncier Posts: 12,158
    bootleg said:
    bootleg said:
    OnWis97 said:
    Relying on unreliable voters to win you an election is never a great strategy. Worked wonderfully in ‘08 with an electric candidate with energy and universal appeal. Not sure it can work with Biden, hope I’m wrong.
    This has been the difference since at least Reagan.  He replaced Carter, who was an ineffective president elected because Ford pardoned Nixon. Mondale? Meh (though NOBODY was going to be Reagan). Dukakis? LOL.  Then came Bill Clinton; young, energetic, played the sax on Arsenio. Gore? Smart but stiff and boring. Kerry? Meh.  Then came Obama; electric, as you say. Hillary? Worse than "meh." Absolutely hated. Biden? Meh.

    Republicans are the default winners for a few reasons. They don't lose presidential elections; "electric" Democrats go in and take them.  Of course, the way the courts, media and Senate are going to look for the next few years, even that may not be possible any more.

    A once in a century pandemic and a country in an overall death spiral might be the exception to all these rules. I believe Trump would have won by a wide margin minus covid, The fact that he still might pull this off is honestly shocking and should be a huge wake up call to Democrats going forward. Win or lose Dems have to find a way to attract rural voters and get young voters to actually cast their ballots. Good luck with that, minus running a celebrity or some other ridiculous ploy.
    Sadly I think that’s where we’re at.  Going to have to run a celeb like Oprah.  Seriously though how does he get this much support?  He fucking said maybe we can inject bleach to kill Covid.  I could could go on with all of the other things that would normally disqualify someone from being President but we all know the rest.  I don’t know if we can recover from this as a country.  We’re in the golden age of idiocy.
    thats part of the issue- you fell for the media's spin once again.  so taken up by your political desires, you actually think when he said that that he meant to do it. Sarcasm used to be a thing we all understood, but in the age of media headlines, you immediately assumed he meant to inject bleach!  No offense- but the general public, it's something like 65%, don't actually read the article or watch the clip, they just read the headline, re-tweet it, and tell all their friends how dumb trump is.  Funny to watch him troll the media, because he's good at it, he knows how they'll print it and how slackjaws will eat it up.
    I watched it live in real time.  It was not sarcastic it was a legit dumbass thinking out loud.  Also if it was sarcasm or a joke I don’t think a briefing on the pandemic is the appropriate time to try to get some yucks.
    I watched it live too. It was definitely a moron asking a question so stupid a 6 year old would have known the answer and realized not to ask it.
    This weekend we rock Portland
  • PoncierPoncier Posts: 12,158
    JimmyV said:

    FLA, GA and NC being blue is wrong, and I'm not sold on PA yet either.
    This weekend we rock Portland
  • JimmyVJimmyV Boston's MetroWestPosts: 14,941
    Poncier said:
    JimmyV said:

    FLA, GA and NC being blue is wrong, and I'm not sold on PA yet either.
    Agreed. We'll see where it ends up but I wouldn't hurt myself patting Nate on the back just yet. 
    ___________________________________________

    "...I changed by not changing at all..."
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 11,539
    Poncier said:
    JimmyV said:

    FLA, GA and NC being blue is wrong, and I'm not sold on PA yet either.
    Not until GA and NC go red will it be wrong...come on man
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • Gern BlanstenGern Blansten Your Mom'sPosts: 11,539
    JimmyV said:
    Biden has to win this because four more years of Trump in the White House and Nate Silver's weird internet fanboys going to the mattresses to defend him is just unthinkable. 
    I'm not really a Nate fanboy but I'm a numbers guy.  Nate doesn't make the polls...his model just interprets them.  If the polls are not accurate his model won't be accurate.

    As I said above...as of right now he is only wrong on FL
    Remember the Thomas Nine!! (10/02/2018)

    1998: Noblesville; 2003: Noblesville; 2009: EV Nashville, Chicago, Chicago
    2010: St Louis, Columbus, Noblesville; 2011: EV Chicago, East Troy, East Troy
    2013: London ON, Chicago; 2014: Cincy, St Louis, Moline (NO CODE)
    2016: Lexington, Wrigley #1; 2018: Wrigley #1, Wrigley #2, Boston #1, Boston #2
    2020: Oakland1, Oakland2
  • mrussel1mrussel1 Posts: 20,726
    JimmyV said:
    Biden has to win this because four more years of Trump in the White House and Nate Silver's weird internet fanboys going to the mattresses to defend him is just unthinkable. 
    I'm not really a Nate fanboy but I'm a numbers guy.  Nate doesn't make the polls...his model just interprets them.  If the polls are not accurate his model won't be accurate.

    As I said above...as of right now he is only wrong on FL
    Completely agree.  And the polls appear to have been within the margin of error.  GA and TX were dreams. 
  • tbergstbergs Posts: 7,761
    mrussel1 said:
    JimmyV said:
    Biden has to win this because four more years of Trump in the White House and Nate Silver's weird internet fanboys going to the mattresses to defend him is just unthinkable. 
    I'm not really a Nate fanboy but I'm a numbers guy.  Nate doesn't make the polls...his model just interprets them.  If the polls are not accurate his model won't be accurate.

    As I said above...as of right now he is only wrong on FL
    Completely agree.  And the polls appear to have been within the margin of error.  GA and TX were dreams. 
    Everyone I work with this morning started ragging on the polls because they thought it would be a Biden landslide and it isn't. I was like, but so far the polls have been right as far as outcomes besides the pipe dream states. I mean, Florida blue would have been great, but as unrealistic as Texas. Although, where I think FL is damn near a lost cause moving forward, Texas could easily be blue if the right candidate runs. It's much more balanced than it was 20 years ago. Either way, yeah, disappointing because a certain group of this country were hopeful Trump was not who we are, but this has shown more people than desired are happy to hitch their trailer to a dumpster full of used condoms and moldy big macs.
    It's a hopeless situation...
  • MayDay10MayDay10 Posts: 10,875
    The model is fairly sound.  The polls are not.  As far as the model goes, perhaps there needs to be some sort of additional correction made when it comes to Trump elections?
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