Nate Silver 538

The Juggler

Confidence levels are high...as high as Biden has about a 90% chance of winning. Final Morning Consult polls:

The Juggler

Final Monmouth poll:

Halifax2TheMax

Sleepy Woke Joe Basement Biden is down 13%. Get out and VOTE!

Jearlpam0925

Correct. All he's do is hedging if Biden loses and then he gets shitted on for the work he does as if it's a voodoo science.

Lerxst, no offense, I mean this in the best possible way, but I take your comments as if the forecast is "wrong" as in Nate doesn't know what he's doing - like, really, you need that forecast to say 0%, because 90/10 makes you feel the same as 0%.

OnWis97

Jearlpam0925 said:

Correct. All he's do is hedging if Biden loses and then he gets shitted on for the work he does as if it's a voodoo science.

Lerxst, no offense, I mean this in the best possible way, but I take your comments as if the forecast is "wrong" as in Nate doesn't know what he's doing - like, really, you need that forecast to say 0%, because 90/10 makes you feel the same as 0%.

I don't think for a second that Nate doesn't know what he's doing.  Essentially in 2016, the reason he had Hillary at (I don't recall; 72% or something) was because Trump needed pretty much all the close states to go his way. Flip a coin on all the states and the coin needed to land on tails like 8 of 9 times or something. And it happened. Why?  Maybe because those really were not 9 individual states but just one national trend...

This year is looking similar. Trump needs all the breaks* to go his way.  Mathematically, this probably is a 90/10 (or even 95/5) prospect. The issue is that this might not really be a math problem. Trump's rise to cult-hero status wasn't able to be captured by the math. The biggest difference in 2016 was that every likely Trump voter voted.  Many likely Hillary voters did not.  Now, I honestly don't follow the formulas as closely as some of you do and some of you are saying that they're trying to correct for things like this. OK. We'll see, I guess. But we still have the most devoted base this country has ever had against 2020's answer to John Kerry.  So that math that, say, eight states have to land on tails might not work out when those eight states are part of one national trend to come to the polls hard for Trump.

*and some of those breaks are things that I don't think Silver is trying to capture: Votes not being counted, governors actively working for Trump, Barr probably visiting every swing state with GOP leadership, Proud/Bugaloo Bois "guarding polls from Antifa." In short; fuckery.  The polls numbers are better for Biden than they were for Hillary (and Biden while not inspiring like Obama is not universally hated like Hillary). But I'm guessing fuckery more than makes up for it.

MayDay10

Dont think of it as pro-Biden as much as it is anti-Trump.  IMO the anti-Trump vote seems to be much more motivating than even the Obama campaigns.  

We didnt have the anti-Trump factor so much in 2016.  For one, everyone just assumed he would lose.  Second, there was still a general feeling that common sense would prevail and trump would just bring a lot of Republican officials in to run things, and sit back as kind of a figurehead.  

Jearlpam0925

This ^ - the anti-Trump stance is why turnout will be so high. Not because they love Joe Biden.

Two, the base you're talking about is very much a thing, but it speaks to Trump's consistency on his downside than his upside. It's why he's overall been one of the worst president when it comes to net approval ratings, but that's because his approval ratings (not disapproval) never budged above like 45% (sans for like the first 3 weeks of his term where people I guess kept an open mind). This just helps tell me that at least 30%, and no more than 45%, of this country are straight up garbage.

HughFreakingDillon

trump didn't win extra voters. biden is getting insane turnout nothing like hillary. 

the election is called by 10pm central time. 

Gern Blansten

Jearlpam0925 said:

This ^ - the anti-Trump stance is why turnout will be so high. Not because they love Joe Biden.

Two, the base you're talking about is very much a thing, but it speaks to Trump's consistency on his downside than his upside. It's why he's overall been one of the worst president when it comes to net approval ratings, but that's because his approval ratings (not disapproval) never budged above like 45% (sans for like the first 3 weeks of his term where people I guess kept an open mind). This just helps tell me that at least 30%, and no more than 45%, of this country are straight up garbage.

Yes....absolute idiots.  I still can't believe some of the people I know that are just in the bag for tRump.

There is a clear dividing line between tRump supporters that think he will lose and tRump supporters that think he will win in a landslide.  How can anyone with half a functioning brain think this could be a tRump landslide?

Gern Blansten

HughFreakingDillon said:

trump didn't win extra voters. biden is getting insane turnout nothing like hillary. 

the election is called by 10pm central time. 

I kind of feel this way too but I'm afraid of jinxing it

I keep seeing people on twitter talk about how none of us should be worrying and that tRump is going to get blown out.

I still have PTSD from 2016.  I remember the night of the election, David Plouffe (Obama's campaign manager) tweeted out something like "I can't wait to see the look on Trump's face when he loses" and reading that made me feel so much better.  A few hours later Clinton conceded.

OnWis97

Gern Blansten said:

HughFreakingDillon said:

trump didn't win extra voters. biden is getting insane turnout nothing like hillary. 

the election is called by 10pm central time. 

I kind of feel this way too but I'm afraid of jinxing it

I keep seeing people on twitter talk about how none of us should be worrying and that tRump is going to get blown out.

I still have PTSD from 2016.  I remember the night of the election, David Plouffe (Obama's campaign manager) tweeted out something like "I can't wait to see the look on Trump's face when he loses" and reading that made me feel so much better.  A few hours later Clinton conceded.

I don't know how anyone against Trump would not.  This has seemed exactly like four years ago. There are two differences: 1) the numbers are a bit wider apart and 2) the fuckery factor.  I hope 1) matters more, but 2) is in the hands of the people that matter. I don't see Biden winning a swing state with a GOP governor.

Jearlpam0925

At the end of the day the main takeaway from 2016 is to never take anything for granted ever again. Vote every year. Vote in every election. Just keep telling your peoples this.

Lerxst1992

OnWis97 said:

Jearlpam0925 said:

Correct. All he's do is hedging if Biden loses and then he gets shitted on for the work he does as if it's a voodoo science.

Lerxst, no offense, I mean this in the best possible way, but I take your comments as if the forecast is "wrong" as in Nate doesn't know what he's doing - like, really, you need that forecast to say 0%, because 90/10 makes you feel the same as 0%.

I don't think for a second that Nate doesn't know what he's doing.  Essentially in 2016, the reason he had Hillary at (I don't recall; 72% or something) was because Trump needed pretty much all the close states to go his way. Flip a coin on all the states and the coin needed to land on tails like 8 of 9 times or something. And it happened. Why?  Maybe because those really were not 9 individual states but just one national trend...

This year is looking similar. Trump needs all the breaks* to go his way.  Mathematically, this probably is a 90/10 (or even 95/5) prospect. The issue is that this might not really be a math problem. Trump's rise to cult-hero status wasn't able to be captured by the math. The biggest difference in 2016 was that every likely Trump voter voted.  Many likely Hillary voters did not.  Now, I honestly don't follow the formulas as closely as some of you do and some of you are saying that they're trying to correct for things like this. OK. We'll see, I guess. But we still have the most devoted base this country has ever had against 2020's answer to John Kerry.  So that math that, say, eight states have to land on tails might not work out when those eight states are part of one national trend to come to the polls hard for Trump.

*and some of those breaks are things that I don't think Silver is trying to capture: Votes not being counted, governors actively working for Trump, Barr probably visiting every swing state with GOP leadership, Proud/Bugaloo Bois "guarding polls from Antifa." In short; fuckery.  The polls numbers are better for Biden than they were for Hillary (and Biden while not inspiring like Obama is not universally hated like Hillary). But I'm guessing fuckery more than makes up for it.

I was just relaying what Nate posted last night. Seemed to be a major hedge.

On the good news front, Joes polling in MI & WI are strong. If he wins there , trump needs to go 8 for 8 in the other swing states or flip a Hillary state. MN NV look to be the most vulnerable there.

on the bad news front, not liking the recent polls in NC and FL. These are key states bc they are early results states and if trump runs the early release states (FL NC GA OH, all could go trump) he will sue to stop the counting elsewhere.  I see above the Monmouth poll has Biden up 6 in FL. I don’t see a snowball chance in hell Biden is up that much in FL. And the cross tabs for NC don’t look good. 2 of 3 yesterday polls had trump ahead, and the 1 with Biden ahead had trump doing better with independents and women. And this was a lean D pollster I think, Emerson.

Jearlpam0925

JESUS:

https://sixtysixwards.com/home/election_night_approx/

mrussel1

Jearlpam0925 said:

JESUS:

https://sixtysixwards.com/home/election_night_approx/

No one in the news world will be calling PA if there are 2 million votes to be counted.

The Juggler

Jearlpam0925 said:

JESUS:

https://sixtysixwards.com/home/election_night_approx/

Fuck it. Biden's winning Texas. His acceptance speech will begin around 11:15 tomorrow night. PA at the end of the week will be icing on the cake at that point.

LET'S FUCKIN' GO!!

Gern Blansten

Charles Cook was just on MTPD and said that he thinks the race will go to Biden as soon as TX and FL report tomorrow night.  He said PA won't matter....dude was confident as hell

Jearlpam0925

I mean, yeah, if FL goes blue - which should be earlier than most states announced- then, yes, it's over.

mrussel1

Gern Blansten said:

Charles Cook was just on MTPD and said that he thinks the race will go to Biden as soon as TX and FL report tomorrow night.  He said PA won't matter....dude was confident as hell

Charlie Cook is no hack.  God, please let him be right.  I'll never ask for anything again... maybe. 

Gern Blansten

Cook also said that the polling errors in 2016 related to non-college educated whites being underreported were fixed in this year's polling....and that he believes white suburban women are underreported which is a big benefit to Biden.

Gern Blansten

mrussel1 said:

Gern Blansten said:

Charles Cook was just on MTPD and said that he thinks the race will go to Biden as soon as TX and FL report tomorrow night.  He said PA won't matter....dude was confident as hell

Charlie Cook is no hack.  God, please let him be right.  I'll never ask for anything again... maybe. 

Yeah...I'm still in a bit of shock.  He had no hesitation to offering that opinion.  I think Chuck Todd was surprised too.

Gern Blansten

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323338341484515329

Fuck you Nate!

HughFreakingDillon

he said this will be more like 1980 than 2016. he is confident biden wins and it's called early, and senate has a 75% chance of going blue. 

tbergs

I'll be glued to election results all night waiting for the Trump sniveling and whining. The next 2 months will be crazy. 

HughFreakingDillon

Isn't it insane that many of us are just as or more concerned about the 2+ months between election night and inauguration day than we are the actual election? what does that tell you about the state of politics right now?

static111

If the senate goes blue can we impeach Kavanaugh and Amy Christina Barcelona?

The Juggler

Gern Blansten said:

Charles Cook was just on MTPD and said that he thinks the race will go to Biden as soon as TX and FL report tomorrow night.  He said PA won't matter....dude was confident as hell

He was basing that off of my post above.

LET'S FUCKIN' GO!

The Juggler

HughFreakingDillon said:

Isn't it insane that many of us are just as or more concerned about the 2+ months between election night and inauguration day than we are the actual election? what does that tell you about the state of politics right now?

I am WAAAAY more concerned about the election than what happens after it. One existential threat to our democracy at a time is enough for me. lol

Gern Blansten

HughFreakingDillon said:

Isn't it insane that many of us are just as or more concerned about the 2+ months between election night and inauguration day than we are the actual election? what does that tell you about the state of politics right now?

It's going to be weird...lots of odd pardons, probably a lot of golf trips at tRump resorts so that he can bilk as much money as possible before he leaves.

mrussel1

static111 said:

If the senate goes blue can we impeach Kavanaugh and Amy Christina Barcelona?

you could, but you still need 2/3 and an actual impeachable offense.