This guy runs a local city site for elections, but it's really good. And tells you all you really need to know. There's no "shift" that'll happen, just possibly uncounted votes:
The good news is the media is going to be extra careful about calling it prematurely. And if Trump is really up by 13%, no reasonable person will think that's the end result.
i will bet you fox and oann will call it early for trump. just like fox called florida way too early for bush in 2000. they need to do this to sow doubt in the election and the results.
they can always come out later and do a mea culpa if biden ends up winning. look what fox is doing now with the hunter biden "documents".
The news side of Fox isn't terrible. Their polling is pretty good and they were the first ones to call the House as a flip in 2018.
but still. if there are shenanigans on nov 3, 4, 5, etc, you can bet that fox news will be involved in shenanigans.
If? There's going to be all kinds of shenanigans. And lawsuits. They're going to steal this thing unless its an overwhelming EC, counted vote, win for Sleepy Woke Joe Basement Biden.
if he wins can we stop calling him sleepy woke joe basement biden? that is some trump shit and trump will be irrelevant.
Not until Team trump Treason Tax Cheat is out of office. Then I may consider retiring both monikers but I reserve my right to free speech. I won't be silenced!
This guy runs a local city site for elections, but it's really good. And tells you all you really need to know. There's no "shift" that'll happen, just possibly uncounted votes:
The good news is the media is going to be extra careful about calling it prematurely. And if Trump is really up by 13%, no reasonable person will think that's the end result.
They had clips before of 2000 and FL was one of the first states NBC called, then quickly retracted. Unreal how low their standards were for calling such an important race so early. Then they showed the famous Tim Russert Florida Florida Florida moment.
If I recall correctly, they called FL too early because the Panhandle hadn't closed yet. That is in Central Time.
Warnock is most likely headed for a run off. None of those polls have him over 50% and it’s rare to get an outright winner with 5 candidates. The other race the dem has a decent chance of winning outright, Ossoff.
Isn't that the guy that recently was outed having had an affair? In a red (well, purple by now) state that's probably fairly evangelical? Maybe Trump has just sort of wiped everyone's conscience of worrying about this kind of thing.
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Isn't that the guy that recently was outed having had an affair? In a red (well, purple by now) state that's probably fairly evangelical? Maybe Trump has just sort of wiped everyone's conscience of worrying about this kind of thing.
Isn't that the guy that recently was outed having had an affair? In a red (well, purple by now) state that's probably fairly evangelical? Maybe Trump has just sort of wiped everyone's conscience of worrying about this kind of thing.
yes, yes and yes.
And I’ve seen the NC dem gov Cooper has been up double digits
“ Take Pennsylvania, the state our forecast currently thinks is most likely to decide the election. Biden doesn’t have much extra cushion in polls there, so a 2016-magnitude polling error could deliver the state to Trump. Remember, Trump has a meaningful chance of winning the election, per our forecast — no longer quite as good as the chances of rolling a 1 on a six-sided die but still roughly the same as the chance that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And remember, it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)”
90/10....hmmmmm
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,315
“ Take Pennsylvania, the state our forecast currently thinks is most likely to decide the election. Biden doesn’t have much extra cushion in polls there, so a 2016-magnitude polling error could deliver the state to Trump. Remember, Trump has a meaningful chance of winning the election, per our forecast — no longer quite as good as the chances of rolling a 1 on a six-sided die but still roughly the same as the chance that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And remember, it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)”
90/10....hmmmmm
A 1 in 10 chance is certainly not a 0 in 10 chance.
Biden is the overwhelming favorite right now. No doubt about it.
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,315
Meet the 'shy' Biden voters quietly living in Pennsylvania's Trump country
Jami Colich loves everything about New Castle, her home in western Pennsylvania. The fact her kids go to school with the children of her former classmates. The ability to text the principal or superintendent whenever she likes. The familiar faces. The easy rhythm.
Colich has lived her entire 37 years in this town of 20,000, save for a brief time in Texas. She hated the cookie-cutter housing developments and pancake-flat landscape of the Houston area.
But New Castle, with its century-old homes and dense woods bursting in technicolor, has come to feel a lot less welcoming than it used to. This is Trump country, red as an autumn leaf, and Colich supports Joe Biden, though she doesn't make a big noise about it.
"We are the minority," she said of those backing the Democratic former vice president. "At least as far as vocally."
Colich, a speck of blue in a Republican sea, is like many Biden voters around here who feel it best to keep their heads down.
The election of President Trump, which shocked many pollsters and reputed experts, gave rise to a much-discussed species: the shy Trump voter, a citizen so cowed by critics and the media they won't dare express their feelings out loud. Trump calls them "a silent majority," and his backers believe that untold millions who lie to political pollsters, or refuse to take part in opinion surveys, will again stun the world, defying predictions and delivering the president a second term next week.
Less noted are the shy Biden voters, who may quietly help the Democrat chip away at Trump's base in small-town and rural America.
Pennsylvania, which Democrats once reliably counted on, is a keystone of this presidential campaign. Trump carried the state in 2016, a narrow upset that helped put him in the White House despite losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton. It will be tough for either candidate to win this time without its 20 electoral votes.
And though polls show Biden holding a small but steady lead in Pennsylvania, owing to his strong support in the cities and suburbs, he can't seize the state back if Trump buries him in places like New Castle and the rural areas that surround it.
The president prevailed in Lawrence County, where New Castle sits not far from the Ohio border, by a whopping 62% to 34% over Clinton. He won most of its neighboring counties by similar margins.
Colich voted four years ago for Clinton. People who know her know she supports Biden and his running mate, California Sen. Kamala Harris.
But there is no sign outside her home, where Colich lives with her longtime partner and their two children. When conversations turn to politics — and everything these days is political: the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. Postal Service — Colich quickly changes the subject. She advises her children, ages 11 and 15, to do the same.
It saddens her. "I'm just so very disappointed in what I thought I had, this small-town living … and now the division is palpable," Colich said.
She works as a lender in a community bank downtown. A block away, on her ride to and from work, is an upscale home bearing multiple pro-Trump signs, including one in the frontyard portraying the president as Rambo, the armed-to-the-teeth mercenary played in movies by Sylvester Stallone. Nearby, a red barn carries a banner belligerently declaring the owner's pro-Trump sentiments.
The hint of menace, Colich believes, is deliberate. "Trump supporters aim to be intimidating," she said.
It is, of course, impossible to know the number of people on either side of the political divide who won't openly state their opinions and whether those "hidden" voters, supposedly undetected by pollsters, are enough to make a difference this election. But there is no doubt their reticence reflects a change that has taken place in recent years, as an individual's partisan identity has increasingly become a social and cultural marker as well — and something that incites anger and hostility.
"Polarization has been going on for several decades, but it has become more severe and more emotional in the Trump era," said Q. Whitfield Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster and strategist. "Our country is so deeply polarized that supporting a candidate who is different from your family or your social network subjects you to criticism and shunning and other really unpleasant social behaviors."
For some the best remedy is silence, or something close to it.
Jason B., who lives in rural Lawrence County, is convinced he's the only Biden supporter at the small firm where he works. He figures almost all his friends are Republicans, including some who "loudly support Trump." So he steers clear of politics, to avoid confrontation.
"If I was 30 years old, I may not be handling it the same way I do at 40," said Jason, who asked his last name not be used to shield him from repercussions. "I just keep a very low profile."
In Hermitage, a town of about 16,000, Democratic attorney Michael T. Muha supports Biden but understands Trump's local appeal.
This hilly region of Pennsylvania is archetypal Rust Belt country, where the steel industry withered and people's hopes and livelihoods faded along with it. Although the state's population grew in the last decade, it continues to shrink in the western portion. Today, one of the top regional exports is young minds.
"Too many kids graduate from high school, move away and never come back," said Muha, a member of the Hermitage Board of Commissioners, or city council. "The steel mills collapsed and jobs are scarce, unless they're minimum wage or slightly higher. As a result, people looked to a guy who sold them a bill of goods.
"Trump didn't really do anything to help those people," Muha said, though he at least spoke to their concerns.
There are plenty who would disagree with that assessment. The president is expected to again carry rural Pennsylvania, including Lawrence County. There are fat clusters of Trump-Pence signs alongside highway exits and sprinkled throughout residential neighborhoods. The congressman here, Mike Kelly, is a big Trump fan and a favorite to win his sixth term.
Muha believes Biden will do considerably better than Clinton, based on some of the conversations he's had with constituents — in private.
"I've talked to many of them who've said, 'I'm going to vote for Joe Biden, but I'm not putting a sign in my frontyard,'" Muha said. They don't want to provoke their neighbors.
Julie Slomski, 43, a Democrat running for state Senate in Erie, said she, too, meets plenty of Democratic voters who express their support in hushed tones and hurried conversations.
Among the refrains she often hears: “I can’t talk to you too long. I don’t want my neighbor to see I’m a Democrat,” or “I’m afraid to put up that sign because I can’t afford to have my neighbor to be mad at me.”
As Caroline James can attest, that is not an unreasonable concern.
A staunch Biden supporter, she has several signs promoting the Democratic ticket, including a gigantic placard mounted on a wooden stand in her yard in Erie. One day, out walking her two dogs, she noticed the sign had fallen over. “I’m thinking nothing of it. Maybe it’s the wind, the rain," said James, a self-described senior citizen who declined to give her age.
When she tried to lift the sign back up, she noticed bullet holes: four of them. James' five grown children — four of whom are Trump supporters — urged her to remove all her pro-Biden paraphernalia, out of concern for her safety. But James refuses.
“This is a free country," she said. "I am not going to take my signs down.”
Looking to calm some anxiety (bad idea), I took a look at a early votes in a few counties in NC & TX - especially some of the largest Trump +20 counties, turnout is thru the roof, already 20-35% higher than 2016. In the largest dem counties, turnout is moderately better, up @ 10%. I can imagine Biden gaining in the NCW vote in suburban areas, but these are trump deep red counties. Yes shifting votes in the suburbs could offset this, but the purpose of my research was to gauge enthusiasm on each side. Considering Dems are supposed to be voting earlier more, this was not the result I expected.
Regarding the 538 “what if it’s the same polling error as 2016” - if they are missing a trend, meaning an increase in trump base turnout, then their projection is way off.
I am surprised 538 hasn’t taken a deep dive into early voting turnout by county in key swing states especially the larger deep blue and deep red counties. They could probably get more insight than pollsters guessing if the trump phenomenon has expanded in trump country or stayed the same. Hope my math is off.
Looking to calm some anxiety (bad idea), I took a look at a early votes in a few counties in NC & TX - especially some of the largest Trump +20 counties, turnout is thru the roof, already 20-35% higher than 2016. In the largest dem counties, turnout is moderately better, up @ 10%. I can imagine Biden gaining in the NCW vote in suburban areas, but these are trump deep red counties. Yes shifting votes in the suburbs could offset this, but the purpose of my research was to gauge enthusiasm on each side. Considering Dems are supposed to be voting earlier more, this was not the result I expected.
Regarding the 538 “what if it’s the same polling error as 2016” - if they are missing a trend, meaning an increase in trump base turnout, then their projection is way off.
I am surprised 538 hasn’t taken a deep dive into early voting turnout by county in key swing states especially the larger deep blue and deep red counties. They could probably get more insight than pollsters guessing if the trump phenomenon has expanded in trump country or stayed the same. Hope my math is off.
There's too many variables. Early voting is more of a thing this year than others due to COVID, and states working to make it easier. You also have states that don't keep registration, and where you do, registration is not a rock solid way to predict. Last, you may just be cannibalizing election day voting.
The only info I have seen that really tells me something is where it have youth voting approaching 2016 numbers in some states.
Looking to calm some anxiety (bad idea), I took a look at a early votes in a few counties in NC & TX - especially some of the largest Trump +20 counties, turnout is thru the roof, already 20-35% higher than 2016. In the largest dem counties, turnout is moderately better, up @ 10%. I can imagine Biden gaining in the NCW vote in suburban areas, but these are trump deep red counties. Yes shifting votes in the suburbs could offset this, but the purpose of my research was to gauge enthusiasm on each side. Considering Dems are supposed to be voting earlier more, this was not the result I expected.
Regarding the 538 “what if it’s the same polling error as 2016” - if they are missing a trend, meaning an increase in trump base turnout, then their projection is way off.
I am surprised 538 hasn’t taken a deep dive into early voting turnout by county in key swing states especially the larger deep blue and deep red counties. They could probably get more insight than pollsters guessing if the trump phenomenon has expanded in trump country or stayed the same. Hope my math is off.
There's too many variables. Early voting is more of a thing this year than others due to COVID, and states working to make it easier. You also have states that don't keep registration, and where you do, registration is not a rock solid way to predict. Last, you may just be cannibalizing election day voting.
The only info I have seen that really tells me something is where it have youth voting approaching 2016 numbers in some states.
I was just looking at solid D and solid R counties in TX and NC to gauge enthusiasm on each side. Very unscientific.
Bunch of good news polls just out from CNN, maybe their last of the cycle. Dammit the pollsters better be right. There is certainly no Comey letter tightening this time. So, no excuses.
“In Arizona and Wisconsin, the poll results are roughly in line with an average of recent high-quality public polling on the race. The Arizona survey shows a race within the poll's margin of sampling error, with Biden at 50% support to Trump's 46%. In Wisconsin, Biden has the lead, with 52% behind him vs. 44% for Trump.
The North Carolina result shows Biden narrowly ahead of Trump, 51% to 45%, just outside the poll's 4 point margin of sampling error. The average of public polling in North Carolina suggests a slightly tighter race for the presidency than does the new poll, though an NBC News/Marist College poll there this week also found Biden with a narrow advantage.
In Michigan, the results suggest a wider margin than most public polling there, with 53% for Biden to 41% for Trump, but the results for each candidate are within the survey's margin of error of the average estimated support for that candidate.“
Bunch of good news polls just out from CNN, maybe their last of the cycle. Dammit the pollsters better be right. There is certainly no Comey letter tightening this time. So, no excuses.
“In Arizona and Wisconsin, the poll results are roughly in line with an average of recent high-quality public polling on the race. The Arizona survey shows a race within the poll's margin of sampling error, with Biden at 50% support to Trump's 46%. In Wisconsin, Biden has the lead, with 52% behind him vs. 44% for Trump.
The North Carolina result shows Biden narrowly ahead of Trump, 51% to 45%, just outside the poll's 4 point margin of sampling error. The average of public polling in North Carolina suggests a slightly tighter race for the presidency than does the new poll, though an NBC News/Marist College poll there this week also found Biden with a narrow advantage.
In Michigan, the results suggest a wider margin than most public polling there, with 53% for Biden to 41% for Trump, but the results for each candidate are within the survey's margin of error of the average estimated support for that candidate.“
Meet the 'shy' Biden voters quietly living in Pennsylvania's Trump country
Jami Colich loves everything about New Castle, her home in western Pennsylvania. The fact her kids go to school with the children of her former classmates. The ability to text the principal or superintendent whenever she likes. The familiar faces. The easy rhythm.
Colich has lived her entire 37 years in this town of 20,000, save for a brief time in Texas. She hated the cookie-cutter housing developments and pancake-flat landscape of the Houston area.
But New Castle, with its century-old homes and dense woods bursting in technicolor, has come to feel a lot less welcoming than it used to. This is Trump country, red as an autumn leaf, and Colich supports Joe Biden, though she doesn't make a big noise about it.
"We are the minority," she said of those backing the Democratic former vice president. "At least as far as vocally."
Colich, a speck of blue in a Republican sea, is like many Biden voters around here who feel it best to keep their heads down.
The election of President Trump, which shocked many pollsters and reputed experts, gave rise to a much-discussed species: the shy Trump voter, a citizen so cowed by critics and the media they won't dare express their feelings out loud. Trump calls them "a silent majority," and his backers believe that untold millions who lie to political pollsters, or refuse to take part in opinion surveys, will again stun the world, defying predictions and delivering the president a second term next week.
Less noted are the shy Biden voters, who may quietly help the Democrat chip away at Trump's base in small-town and rural America.
Pennsylvania, which Democrats once reliably counted on, is a keystone of this presidential campaign. Trump carried the state in 2016, a narrow upset that helped put him in the White House despite losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton. It will be tough for either candidate to win this time without its 20 electoral votes.
And though polls show Biden holding a small but steady lead in Pennsylvania, owing to his strong support in the cities and suburbs, he can't seize the state back if Trump buries him in places like New Castle and the rural areas that surround it.
The president prevailed in Lawrence County, where New Castle sits not far from the Ohio border, by a whopping 62% to 34% over Clinton. He won most of its neighboring counties by similar margins.
Colich voted four years ago for Clinton. People who know her know she supports Biden and his running mate, California Sen. Kamala Harris.
But there is no sign outside her home, where Colich lives with her longtime partner and their two children. When conversations turn to politics — and everything these days is political: the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. Postal Service — Colich quickly changes the subject. She advises her children, ages 11 and 15, to do the same.
It saddens her. "I'm just so very disappointed in what I thought I had, this small-town living … and now the division is palpable," Colich said.
She works as a lender in a community bank downtown. A block away, on her ride to and from work, is an upscale home bearing multiple pro-Trump signs, including one in the frontyard portraying the president as Rambo, the armed-to-the-teeth mercenary played in movies by Sylvester Stallone. Nearby, a red barn carries a banner belligerently declaring the owner's pro-Trump sentiments.
The hint of menace, Colich believes, is deliberate. "Trump supporters aim to be intimidating," she said.
It is, of course, impossible to know the number of people on either side of the political divide who won't openly state their opinions and whether those "hidden" voters, supposedly undetected by pollsters, are enough to make a difference this election. But there is no doubt their reticence reflects a change that has taken place in recent years, as an individual's partisan identity has increasingly become a social and cultural marker as well — and something that incites anger and hostility.
"Polarization has been going on for several decades, but it has become more severe and more emotional in the Trump era," said Q. Whitfield Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster and strategist. "Our country is so deeply polarized that supporting a candidate who is different from your family or your social network subjects you to criticism and shunning and other really unpleasant social behaviors."
For some the best remedy is silence, or something close to it.
Jason B., who lives in rural Lawrence County, is convinced he's the only Biden supporter at the small firm where he works. He figures almost all his friends are Republicans, including some who "loudly support Trump." So he steers clear of politics, to avoid confrontation.
"If I was 30 years old, I may not be handling it the same way I do at 40," said Jason, who asked his last name not be used to shield him from repercussions. "I just keep a very low profile."
In Hermitage, a town of about 16,000, Democratic attorney Michael T. Muha supports Biden but understands Trump's local appeal.
This hilly region of Pennsylvania is archetypal Rust Belt country, where the steel industry withered and people's hopes and livelihoods faded along with it. Although the state's population grew in the last decade, it continues to shrink in the western portion. Today, one of the top regional exports is young minds.
"Too many kids graduate from high school, move away and never come back," said Muha, a member of the Hermitage Board of Commissioners, or city council. "The steel mills collapsed and jobs are scarce, unless they're minimum wage or slightly higher. As a result, people looked to a guy who sold them a bill of goods.
"Trump didn't really do anything to help those people," Muha said, though he at least spoke to their concerns.
There are plenty who would disagree with that assessment. The president is expected to again carry rural Pennsylvania, including Lawrence County. There are fat clusters of Trump-Pence signs alongside highway exits and sprinkled throughout residential neighborhoods. The congressman here, Mike Kelly, is a big Trump fan and a favorite to win his sixth term.
Muha believes Biden will do considerably better than Clinton, based on some of the conversations he's had with constituents — in private.
"I've talked to many of them who've said, 'I'm going to vote for Joe Biden, but I'm not putting a sign in my frontyard,'" Muha said. They don't want to provoke their neighbors.
Julie Slomski, 43, a Democrat running for state Senate in Erie, said she, too, meets plenty of Democratic voters who express their support in hushed tones and hurried conversations.
Among the refrains she often hears: “I can’t talk to you too long. I don’t want my neighbor to see I’m a Democrat,” or “I’m afraid to put up that sign because I can’t afford to have my neighbor to be mad at me.”
As Caroline James can attest, that is not an unreasonable concern.
A staunch Biden supporter, she has several signs promoting the Democratic ticket, including a gigantic placard mounted on a wooden stand in her yard in Erie. One day, out walking her two dogs, she noticed the sign had fallen over. “I’m thinking nothing of it. Maybe it’s the wind, the rain," said James, a self-described senior citizen who declined to give her age.
When she tried to lift the sign back up, she noticed bullet holes: four of them. James' five grown children — four of whom are Trump supporters — urged her to remove all her pro-Biden paraphernalia, out of concern for her safety. But James refuses.
“This is a free country," she said. "I am not going to take my signs down.”
Sorry to quote such a long post, but I must say this is exactly what it is like living and working where I do here in northwest Indiana. I hope that this feeling is only in small pockets of the nation and not nationwide. It is utterly depressing.
"A smart monkey doesn't monkey around with another monkey's monkey" - Darwin's Theory
Looking to calm some anxiety (bad idea), I took a look at a early votes in a few counties in NC & TX - especially some of the largest Trump +20 counties, turnout is thru the roof, already 20-35% higher than 2016. In the largest dem counties, turnout is moderately better, up @ 10%. I can imagine Biden gaining in the NCW vote in suburban areas, but these are trump deep red counties. Yes shifting votes in the suburbs could offset this, but the purpose of my research was to gauge enthusiasm on each side. Considering Dems are supposed to be voting earlier more, this was not the result I expected.
Regarding the 538 “what if it’s the same polling error as 2016” - if they are missing a trend, meaning an increase in trump base turnout, then their projection is way off.
I am surprised 538 hasn’t taken a deep dive into early voting turnout by county in key swing states especially the larger deep blue and deep red counties. They could probably get more insight than pollsters guessing if the trump phenomenon has expanded in trump country or stayed the same. Hope my math is off.
There's too many variables. Early voting is more of a thing this year than others due to COVID, and states working to make it easier. You also have states that don't keep registration, and where you do, registration is not a rock solid way to predict. Last, you may just be cannibalizing election day voting.
The only info I have seen that really tells me something is where it have youth voting approaching 2016 numbers in some states.
I was just looking at solid D and solid R counties in TX and NC to gauge enthusiasm on each side. Very unscientific.
What are the population densities of those counties though? 30% increase for a population of 10k is 3k votes where 10% increase on 100k is 10k votes.
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,315
The Fuckery Factor is gonna shift those states to Trump.
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The Juggler
Behind that bush over there. Posts: 47,315
The Fuckery Factor is gonna shift those states to Trump.
Aw shucks. If those margins are true on Election Day, Biden wins by over 360,000 votes in PA. Not close enough for the the fuckery factor to shift it to Trump.
Looking to calm some anxiety (bad idea), I took a look at a early votes in a few counties in NC & TX - especially some of the largest Trump +20 counties, turnout is thru the roof, already 20-35% higher than 2016. In the largest dem counties, turnout is moderately better, up @ 10%. I can imagine Biden gaining in the NCW vote in suburban areas, but these are trump deep red counties. Yes shifting votes in the suburbs could offset this, but the purpose of my research was to gauge enthusiasm on each side. Considering Dems are supposed to be voting earlier more, this was not the result I expected.
Regarding the 538 “what if it’s the same polling error as 2016” - if they are missing a trend, meaning an increase in trump base turnout, then their projection is way off.
I am surprised 538 hasn’t taken a deep dive into early voting turnout by county in key swing states especially the larger deep blue and deep red counties. They could probably get more insight than pollsters guessing if the trump phenomenon has expanded in trump country or stayed the same. Hope my math is off.
There's too many variables. Early voting is more of a thing this year than others due to COVID, and states working to make it easier. You also have states that don't keep registration, and where you do, registration is not a rock solid way to predict. Last, you may just be cannibalizing election day voting.
The only info I have seen that really tells me something is where it have youth voting approaching 2016 numbers in some states.
I was just looking at solid D and solid R counties in TX and NC to gauge enthusiasm on each side. Very unscientific.
What are the population densities of those counties though? 30% increase for a population of 10k is 3k votes where 10% increase on 100k is 10k votes.
I was not trying to calculate who may win, but NC and TX enthusiasm for each side based on the strong early voting in very partisan and larger R and D counties. Yes the D counties would be larger being in the cities.
A lot of excellent polls for Biden lately and 538 reported that after the debate the shift has been 1.7 Biden, so we have not seen a late trump/Comey letter type event this time.
Since PA will likely not be known on election night, Biden needs a strong showing in a couple of other states expected to be called Tuesday evening. I’ll give Biden WI and MI, but most concerning now could be FL NC IA MN AZ NV
Key states that are likely to have early election night results are OH NC FL GA. I think FL may be more of a red state now than when Obama ran, so It’s important for Biden to at a minimum match his “polling leads” in one of these 3 other states early in the evening to shut trump up trying to claim an early victory.
Edit, OH may be a reach, but I plan on looking at it closely and compare returns to 2016 and see if there is a D shift even if Biden can’t swing it there, as it’s expected to have results out earlier than many states.
A lot of excellent polls for Biden lately and 538 reported that after the debate the shift has been 1.7 Biden, so we have not seen a late trump/Comey letter type event this time.
Since PA will likely not be known on election night, Biden needs a strong showing in a couple of other states expected to be called Tuesday evening. I’ll give Biden WI and MI, but most concerning now could be FL NC IA MN AZ NV
Key states that are likely to have early election night results are OH NC FL GA. I think FL may be more of a red state now than when Obama ran, so It’s important for Biden to at a minimum match his “polling leads” in one of these 3 other states early in the evening to shut trump up trying to claim an early victory.
Edit, OH may be a reach, but I plan on looking at it closely and compare returns to 2016 and see if there is a D shift even if Biden can’t swing it there, as it’s expected to have results out earlier than many states.
Best case scenario election night is FL goes decidedly blue early and its over. Trump and his cronies can't play any games about mail in ballots after that with PA since it will not matter.
Meet the 'shy' Biden voters quietly living in Pennsylvania's Trump country
Jami Colich loves everything about New Castle, her home in western Pennsylvania. The fact her kids go to school with the children of her former classmates. The ability to text the principal or superintendent whenever she likes. The familiar faces. The easy rhythm.
Colich has lived her entire 37 years in this town of 20,000, save for a brief time in Texas. She hated the cookie-cutter housing developments and pancake-flat landscape of the Houston area.
But New Castle, with its century-old homes and dense woods bursting in technicolor, has come to feel a lot less welcoming than it used to. This is Trump country, red as an autumn leaf, and Colich supports Joe Biden, though she doesn't make a big noise about it.
"We are the minority," she said of those backing the Democratic former vice president. "At least as far as vocally."
Colich, a speck of blue in a Republican sea, is like many Biden voters around here who feel it best to keep their heads down.
The election of President Trump, which shocked many pollsters and reputed experts, gave rise to a much-discussed species: the shy Trump voter, a citizen so cowed by critics and the media they won't dare express their feelings out loud. Trump calls them "a silent majority," and his backers believe that untold millions who lie to political pollsters, or refuse to take part in opinion surveys, will again stun the world, defying predictions and delivering the president a second term next week.
Less noted are the shy Biden voters, who may quietly help the Democrat chip away at Trump's base in small-town and rural America.
Pennsylvania, which Democrats once reliably counted on, is a keystone of this presidential campaign. Trump carried the state in 2016, a narrow upset that helped put him in the White House despite losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton. It will be tough for either candidate to win this time without its 20 electoral votes.
And though polls show Biden holding a small but steady lead in Pennsylvania, owing to his strong support in the cities and suburbs, he can't seize the state back if Trump buries him in places like New Castle and the rural areas that surround it.
The president prevailed in Lawrence County, where New Castle sits not far from the Ohio border, by a whopping 62% to 34% over Clinton. He won most of its neighboring counties by similar margins.
Colich voted four years ago for Clinton. People who know her know she supports Biden and his running mate, California Sen. Kamala Harris.
But there is no sign outside her home, where Colich lives with her longtime partner and their two children. When conversations turn to politics — and everything these days is political: the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. Postal Service — Colich quickly changes the subject. She advises her children, ages 11 and 15, to do the same.
It saddens her. "I'm just so very disappointed in what I thought I had, this small-town living … and now the division is palpable," Colich said.
She works as a lender in a community bank downtown. A block away, on her ride to and from work, is an upscale home bearing multiple pro-Trump signs, including one in the frontyard portraying the president as Rambo, the armed-to-the-teeth mercenary played in movies by Sylvester Stallone. Nearby, a red barn carries a banner belligerently declaring the owner's pro-Trump sentiments.
The hint of menace, Colich believes, is deliberate. "Trump supporters aim to be intimidating," she said.
It is, of course, impossible to know the number of people on either side of the political divide who won't openly state their opinions and whether those "hidden" voters, supposedly undetected by pollsters, are enough to make a difference this election. But there is no doubt their reticence reflects a change that has taken place in recent years, as an individual's partisan identity has increasingly become a social and cultural marker as well — and something that incites anger and hostility.
"Polarization has been going on for several decades, but it has become more severe and more emotional in the Trump era," said Q. Whitfield Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster and strategist. "Our country is so deeply polarized that supporting a candidate who is different from your family or your social network subjects you to criticism and shunning and other really unpleasant social behaviors."
For some the best remedy is silence, or something close to it.
Jason B., who lives in rural Lawrence County, is convinced he's the only Biden supporter at the small firm where he works. He figures almost all his friends are Republicans, including some who "loudly support Trump." So he steers clear of politics, to avoid confrontation.
"If I was 30 years old, I may not be handling it the same way I do at 40," said Jason, who asked his last name not be used to shield him from repercussions. "I just keep a very low profile."
In Hermitage, a town of about 16,000, Democratic attorney Michael T. Muha supports Biden but understands Trump's local appeal.
This hilly region of Pennsylvania is archetypal Rust Belt country, where the steel industry withered and people's hopes and livelihoods faded along with it. Although the state's population grew in the last decade, it continues to shrink in the western portion. Today, one of the top regional exports is young minds.
"Too many kids graduate from high school, move away and never come back," said Muha, a member of the Hermitage Board of Commissioners, or city council. "The steel mills collapsed and jobs are scarce, unless they're minimum wage or slightly higher. As a result, people looked to a guy who sold them a bill of goods.
"Trump didn't really do anything to help those people," Muha said, though he at least spoke to their concerns.
There are plenty who would disagree with that assessment. The president is expected to again carry rural Pennsylvania, including Lawrence County. There are fat clusters of Trump-Pence signs alongside highway exits and sprinkled throughout residential neighborhoods. The congressman here, Mike Kelly, is a big Trump fan and a favorite to win his sixth term.
Muha believes Biden will do considerably better than Clinton, based on some of the conversations he's had with constituents — in private.
"I've talked to many of them who've said, 'I'm going to vote for Joe Biden, but I'm not putting a sign in my frontyard,'" Muha said. They don't want to provoke their neighbors.
Julie Slomski, 43, a Democrat running for state Senate in Erie, said she, too, meets plenty of Democratic voters who express their support in hushed tones and hurried conversations.
Among the refrains she often hears: “I can’t talk to you too long. I don’t want my neighbor to see I’m a Democrat,” or “I’m afraid to put up that sign because I can’t afford to have my neighbor to be mad at me.”
As Caroline James can attest, that is not an unreasonable concern.
A staunch Biden supporter, she has several signs promoting the Democratic ticket, including a gigantic placard mounted on a wooden stand in her yard in Erie. One day, out walking her two dogs, she noticed the sign had fallen over. “I’m thinking nothing of it. Maybe it’s the wind, the rain," said James, a self-described senior citizen who declined to give her age.
When she tried to lift the sign back up, she noticed bullet holes: four of them. James' five grown children — four of whom are Trump supporters — urged her to remove all her pro-Biden paraphernalia, out of concern for her safety. But James refuses.
“This is a free country," she said. "I am not going to take my signs down.”
Yeah, this is also what I've been trying to tell people re: the Republican "gain" in voter reg this cycle. They were basically Dems that have ID'ed Republican for a while now, and just finally updated their voter reg.
Other part is those same counties, for the majority, showing an increase in R reg have been shedding population like crazy. The only places growing are basically Philly and Pgh and their collar counties.
Semi-related: I'm semi-optimistic on the redrawn maps/districts to more appropriately represesent PA soon.
More specifically, Joe Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania — the most likely tipping-point state, according to our forecast — is solid but not spectacular: about 5 points in our polling average.
Without Pennsylvania, Biden does have some paths to victory, but there’s no one alternative state he can feel especially secure about.
While a lot of theories about why Trump can win (e.g., those about “shy” Trump voters) are probably wrong, systematic polling errors do occur, and it’s hard to predict them ahead of time or to anticipate the reasons in advance.
There is some chance that Trump could “win” illegitimately. To a large extent, these scenarios are beyond the scope of our forecast.”
More specifically, Joe Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania — the most likely tipping-point state, according to our forecast — is solid but not spectacular: about 5 points in our polling average.
Without Pennsylvania, Biden does have some paths to victory, but there’s no one alternative state he can feel especially secure about.
While a lot of theories about why Trump can win (e.g., those about “shy” Trump voters) are probably wrong, systematic polling errors do occur, and it’s hard to predict them ahead of time or to anticipate the reasons in advance.
There is some chance that Trump could “win” illegitimately. To a large extent, these scenarios are beyond the scope of our forecast.”
He's hedging. He has to do so. There are no fundamental differences today vs last week vs last month. The race has been locked in the same path since the debate. It's all turnout.
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/georgia-special/
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https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/meet-the-shy-biden-voters-quietly-living-in-pennsylvanias-trump-country/ar-BB1axCuA
Meet the 'shy' Biden voters quietly living in Pennsylvania's Trump country
Jami Colich loves everything about New Castle, her home in western Pennsylvania. The fact her kids go to school with the children of her former classmates. The ability to text the principal or superintendent whenever she likes. The familiar faces. The easy rhythm.
Colich has lived her entire 37 years in this town of 20,000, save for a brief time in Texas. She hated the cookie-cutter housing developments and pancake-flat landscape of the Houston area.
But New Castle, with its century-old homes and dense woods bursting in technicolor, has come to feel a lot less welcoming than it used to. This is Trump country, red as an autumn leaf, and Colich supports Joe Biden, though she doesn't make a big noise about it.
"We are the minority," she said of those backing the Democratic former vice president. "At least as far as vocally."
Colich, a speck of blue in a Republican sea, is like many Biden voters around here who feel it best to keep their heads down.
The election of President Trump, which shocked many pollsters and reputed experts, gave rise to a much-discussed species: the shy Trump voter, a citizen so cowed by critics and the media they won't dare express their feelings out loud. Trump calls them "a silent majority," and his backers believe that untold millions who lie to political pollsters, or refuse to take part in opinion surveys, will again stun the world, defying predictions and delivering the president a second term next week.
Less noted are the shy Biden voters, who may quietly help the Democrat chip away at Trump's base in small-town and rural America.
Pennsylvania, which Democrats once reliably counted on, is a keystone of this presidential campaign. Trump carried the state in 2016, a narrow upset that helped put him in the White House despite losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton. It will be tough for either candidate to win this time without its 20 electoral votes.
And though polls show Biden holding a small but steady lead in Pennsylvania, owing to his strong support in the cities and suburbs, he can't seize the state back if Trump buries him in places like New Castle and the rural areas that surround it.
The president prevailed in Lawrence County, where New Castle sits not far from the Ohio border, by a whopping 62% to 34% over Clinton. He won most of its neighboring counties by similar margins.
Colich voted four years ago for Clinton. People who know her know she supports Biden and his running mate, California Sen. Kamala Harris.
But there is no sign outside her home, where Colich lives with her longtime partner and their two children. When conversations turn to politics — and everything these days is political: the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. Postal Service — Colich quickly changes the subject. She advises her children, ages 11 and 15, to do the same.
It saddens her. "I'm just so very disappointed in what I thought I had, this small-town living … and now the division is palpable," Colich said.
She works as a lender in a community bank downtown. A block away, on her ride to and from work, is an upscale home bearing multiple pro-Trump signs, including one in the frontyard portraying the president as Rambo, the armed-to-the-teeth mercenary played in movies by Sylvester Stallone. Nearby, a red barn carries a banner belligerently declaring the owner's pro-Trump sentiments.
The hint of menace, Colich believes, is deliberate. "Trump supporters aim to be intimidating," she said.
It is, of course, impossible to know the number of people on either side of the political divide who won't openly state their opinions and whether those "hidden" voters, supposedly undetected by pollsters, are enough to make a difference this election. But there is no doubt their reticence reflects a change that has taken place in recent years, as an individual's partisan identity has increasingly become a social and cultural marker as well — and something that incites anger and hostility.
"Polarization has been going on for several decades, but it has become more severe and more emotional in the Trump era," said Q. Whitfield Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster and strategist. "Our country is so deeply polarized that supporting a candidate who is different from your family or your social network subjects you to criticism and shunning and other really unpleasant social behaviors."
For some the best remedy is silence, or something close to it.
Jason B., who lives in rural Lawrence County, is convinced he's the only Biden supporter at the small firm where he works. He figures almost all his friends are Republicans, including some who "loudly support Trump." So he steers clear of politics, to avoid confrontation.
"If I was 30 years old, I may not be handling it the same way I do at 40," said Jason, who asked his last name not be used to shield him from repercussions. "I just keep a very low profile."
In Hermitage, a town of about 16,000, Democratic attorney Michael T. Muha supports Biden but understands Trump's local appeal.
This hilly region of Pennsylvania is archetypal Rust Belt country, where the steel industry withered and people's hopes and livelihoods faded along with it. Although the state's population grew in the last decade, it continues to shrink in the western portion. Today, one of the top regional exports is young minds.
"Too many kids graduate from high school, move away and never come back," said Muha, a member of the Hermitage Board of Commissioners, or city council. "The steel mills collapsed and jobs are scarce, unless they're minimum wage or slightly higher. As a result, people looked to a guy who sold them a bill of goods.
"Trump didn't really do anything to help those people," Muha said, though he at least spoke to their concerns.
There are plenty who would disagree with that assessment. The president is expected to again carry rural Pennsylvania, including Lawrence County. There are fat clusters of Trump-Pence signs alongside highway exits and sprinkled throughout residential neighborhoods. The congressman here, Mike Kelly, is a big Trump fan and a favorite to win his sixth term.
Muha believes Biden will do considerably better than Clinton, based on some of the conversations he's had with constituents — in private.
"I've talked to many of them who've said, 'I'm going to vote for Joe Biden, but I'm not putting a sign in my frontyard,'" Muha said. They don't want to provoke their neighbors.
Julie Slomski, 43, a Democrat running for state Senate in Erie, said she, too, meets plenty of Democratic voters who express their support in hushed tones and hurried conversations.
Among the refrains she often hears: “I can’t talk to you too long. I don’t want my neighbor to see I’m a Democrat,” or “I’m afraid to put up that sign because I can’t afford to have my neighbor to be mad at me.”
As Caroline James can attest, that is not an unreasonable concern.
A staunch Biden supporter, she has several signs promoting the Democratic ticket, including a gigantic placard mounted on a wooden stand in her yard in Erie. One day, out walking her two dogs, she noticed the sign had fallen over. “I’m thinking nothing of it. Maybe it’s the wind, the rain," said James, a self-described senior citizen who declined to give her age.
When she tried to lift the sign back up, she noticed bullet holes: four of them. James' five grown children — four of whom are Trump supporters — urged her to remove all her pro-Biden paraphernalia, out of concern for her safety. But James refuses.
“This is a free country," she said. "I am not going to take my signs down.”
The only info I have seen that really tells me something is where it have youth voting approaching 2016 numbers in some states.
“In Arizona and Wisconsin, the poll results are roughly in line with an average of recent high-quality public polling on the race. The Arizona survey shows a race within the poll's margin of sampling error, with Biden at 50% support to Trump's 46%. In Wisconsin, Biden has the lead, with 52% behind him vs. 44% for Trump.
The North Carolina result shows Biden narrowly ahead of Trump, 51% to 45%, just outside the poll's 4 point margin of sampling error. The average of public polling in North Carolina suggests a slightly tighter race for the presidency than does the new poll, though an NBC News/Marist College poll there this week also found Biden with a narrow advantage.
In Michigan, the results suggest a wider margin than most public polling there, with 53% for Biden to 41% for Trump, but the results for each candidate are within the survey's margin of error of the average estimated support for that candidate.“
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Since PA will likely not be known on election night, Biden needs a strong showing in a couple of other states expected to be called Tuesday evening. I’ll give Biden WI and MI, but most concerning now could be FL NC IA MN AZ NV
Key states that are likely to have early election night results are OH NC FL GA. I think FL may be more of a red state now than when Obama ran, so It’s important for Biden to at a minimum match his “polling leads” in one of these 3 other states early in the evening to shut trump up trying to claim an early victory.
Other part is those same counties, for the majority, showing an increase in R reg have been shedding population like crazy. The only places growing are basically Philly and Pgh and their collar counties.
Semi-related: I'm semi-optimistic on the redrawn maps/districts to more appropriately represesent PA soon.
” So let’s state a few basic facts: The reasons that President Trump’s chances in our forecast are about 10 percent and not zero: