More people have early voted in Texas than have voted in previous elections. Especially among minorities.
I hope we go blue.
Man, what a day that would make it. I would owe you multiple rounds of beer, since I didn't take you seriously when you said that before. I think Georgia goes before Texas, but man... dream come true
Not to go through the whole working class thing from yesterday, but my optimism has been that the majority of people I interact with are blue collar types and they are done with that BS that is Trump. The BLM movement has also opened up a lot of people to organizing and lookjj oooohbg beyond the binary red/blue political construct. I know several Rs and multiple non-voters that have decided to register this cycle that are casting or have casted ballots for Biden. Granted I’m in Austin, but the same is True for everyone I know in Houston. Time will tell. I’m hoping that a Blue Texas would reward us with a PJ date for the rescheduled tour.
I was thinking about your comments a few weeks ago where you had to keep your mouth shut about Biden for fear it would lose work. When I wrote that, I had you in mind.
I can’t believe I had to be a shy Biden voter. Good news is I go on my last gig with those guys next week and when I get back home I am starting a QC/QA position at a semi conductor factory here in town. It will be good to leave the Defense industry behind
Congrats and good luck
Thanks. It will be good to get back to working steady in an industry that has politics that swing more my way.
He'll probably only win by 10 points. He needs to make that up in whiter areas
To swing Miami from +30 Hillary to only +9 Biden is something I would expect the pollsters and forecasters to have been able to figure out in advance. That’s a pickup of about 150,000 votes for trump in a historically liberal city with excellent turnout.
He'll probably only win by 10 points. He needs to make that up in whiter areas
To swing Miami from +30 Hillary to only +9 Biden is something I would expect the pollsters and forecasters to have been able to figure out in advance. That’s a pickup of about 150,000 votes for trump in a historically liberal city with excellent turnout.
They did. People were talking about him losing Cuban vote and the black male vote being down there. This isn't shocking.
He'll probably only win by 10 points. He needs to make that up in whiter areas
To swing Miami from +30 Hillary to only +9 Biden is something I would expect the pollsters and forecasters to have been able to figure out in advance. That’s a pickup of about 150,000 votes for trump in a historically liberal city with excellent turnout.
They did. People were talking about him losing Cuban vote and the black male vote being down there. This isn't shocking.
FL is likely a solid red state going forward then.
He'll probably only win by 10 points. He needs to make that up in whiter areas
To swing Miami from +30 Hillary to only +9 Biden is something I would expect the pollsters and forecasters to have been able to figure out in advance. That’s a pickup of about 150,000 votes for trump in a historically liberal city with excellent turnout.
They did. People were talking about him losing Cuban vote and the black male vote being down there. This isn't shocking.
FL is likely a solid red state going forward then.
Yes. The fact that we lost the senate and governor there in a heavy democratic year is all you need to know. Biden didn't campaign much there.
He'll probably only win by 10 points. He needs to make that up in whiter areas
To swing Miami from +30 Hillary to only +9 Biden is something I would expect the pollsters and forecasters to have been able to figure out in advance. That’s a pickup of about 150,000 votes for trump in a historically liberal city with excellent turnout.
They did. People were talking about him losing Cuban vote and the black male vote being down there. This isn't shocking.
FL is likely a solid red state going forward then.
Yes. The fact that we lost the senate and governor there in a heavy democratic year is all you need to know. Biden didn't campaign much there.
They just sent Obama to FL twice and no one bothered to go to AZ in the last week. While we are looking at 538 saying Biden has a 70% chance to win FL and flipping GA , NY times is saying, per 538 GA is now 78% chance to trump, and NBC reporting Biden does not have enough votes in Houston to flip TX possibly.
Charlie Cooks 1980 prediction is looking foolish and some buffoon named Lerx warning here the last month is looking spot on. Nail biter not a route. If OH and NC don’t flip Biden likely is under 300 EV total and a real nail biter.
Wait, so 2016 is being repeated? Didn’t see that coming.
1995 Milwaukee 1998 Alpine, Alpine 2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston 2004 Boston, Boston 2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty) 2011 Alpine, Alpine 2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
What I can't stand most about that nerd is the cop-out of using all his data to come to a conclusion of what percentage chance each candidate has of winning. His final percentages in 2016 was Trump had a 29% chance of winning. Then he could hide behind "Hey, we said he had a chance" when he won. This time, Trump's chance of winning was even lower, and if Trump pulls it out, Silver could hide behind that again. "Hey, we said he had a chance." Compile all your data, make a prediction of one or the other, and live with being right or wrong.
The early indication so far is that the poling is once again off and possibly by larger margins than 2016. Biden is outperforming in some places but you can already tell it’s going to be a nail biter.
Relying on unreliable voters to win you an election is never a great strategy. Worked wonderfully in ‘08 with an electric candidate with energy and universal appeal. Not sure it can work with Biden, hope I’m wrong.
Relying on unreliable voters to win you an election is never a great strategy. Worked wonderfully in ‘08 with an electric candidate with energy and universal appeal. Not sure it can work with Biden, hope I’m wrong.
This has been the difference since at least Reagan. He replaced Carter, who was an ineffective president elected because Ford pardoned Nixon. Mondale? Meh (though NOBODY was going to be Reagan). Dukakis? LOL. Then came Bill Clinton; young, energetic, played the sax on Arsenio. Gore? Smart but stiff and boring. Kerry? Meh. Then came Obama; electric, as you say. Hillary? Worse than "meh." Absolutely hated. Biden? Meh.
Republicans are the default winners for a few reasons. They don't lose presidential elections; "electric" Democrats go in and take them. Of course, the way the courts, media and Senate are going to look for the next few years, even that may not be possible any more.
1995 Milwaukee 1998 Alpine, Alpine 2003 Albany, Boston, Boston, Boston 2004 Boston, Boston 2006 Hartford, St. Paul (Petty), St. Paul (Petty) 2011 Alpine, Alpine 2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
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There are no kings inside the gates of eden
Trump +22. Last time +32
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There are no kings inside the gates of eden
Charlie Cooks 1980 prediction is looking foolish and some buffoon named Lerx warning here the last month is looking spot on. Nail biter not a route. If OH and NC don’t flip Biden likely is under 300 EV total and a real nail biter.
2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin
NC is best bet to keep Dems away from the rust belt firewall. Maybe OH but it’s a little shaky. 8% a lot of ground to flip.
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Pearl Jam bootlegs:
http://wegotshit.blogspot.com
"...I changed by not changing at all..."
2013 Wrigley 2014 St. Paul 2016 Fenway, Fenway, Wrigley, Wrigley 2018 Missoula, Wrigley, Wrigley 2021 Asbury Park 2022 St Louis 2023 Austin, Austin